Clayton J. Cleveland

University of Oregon

May 30, 2012

The Norm of Seeking International Authorization: Challenging and Consolidating Practice, 1998-2011

oResearch Question

oProjections of Military Force

oHypotheses

oCases

oFindings

Talk Outline

Why do states seek international authorization for the projection of military force more often after 1990?

Why did the U.S. request international authorization for the projection of military force?

The norm of international authorization led the U.S. to make the request.

Research Question

U.S. Decisions to Project Military Force

Year Projection Attempt IO Source 1989 Panama Intervention 1990 Desert Shield UN UN UNSCR 665 1991 Persian Gulf War UN UN UNSCR 687 1992 U.S. in Somalia UN UN UNSCR 794 1993 U.S. in Iraqi No Fly Zone UN UNSCR 661 1993 U.S. in Bosnia UN UN UNSCR 816 1993 Baghdad Raid UN Article 51 1993 U.S. in Macedonia UN UN UNSCR 842 1994 US Intervention in Haiti UN UN UNSCR 940 1995 U.S. in Bosnia UN UN UNSCR 1031 1998 U.S. in Afghanistan/Sudan 1998 U.S./UK Bombing Iraq 1999 NATO Air Campaign UN NATO 1999 U.S. Peacekeeping in Kosovo UN UN UNSCR 1244 2001 U.S. Intervention in Afghanistan UN Article 51 2003 Iraq War UN 2004 Haiti UN UN UNSCR 1529 2011 Libya, No-Fly Zone UN UN UNSCR 1973 2011 Osama Raid UN Article 51

Hypotheses? Year Projection Attempt IO Source 1989 Panama Intervention 1990 Desert Shield UN UN UNSCR 665 1991 Persian Gulf War UN UN UNSCR 687 1992 U.S. in Somalia UN UN UNSCR 794 1993 U.S. in Iraqi No Fly Zone UN UNSCR 661 1993 U.S. in Bosnia UN UN UNSCR 816 1993 Baghdad Raid UN Article 51 1993 U.S. in Macedonia UN UN UNSCR 842 1994 US Intervention in Haiti UN UN UNSCR 940 1995 U.S. in Bosnia UN UN UNSCR 1031 1998 U.S. in Iraqi No Fly Zone UN UNSCR 661 1998 U.S. in Afghanistan/Sudan 1998 U.S./UK Bombing Iraq 1999 NATO Air Campaign UN NATO 1999 U.S. Peacekeeping in Kosovo UN UN UNSCR 1244 2001 U.S. Intervention in Afghanistan UN Article 51 2003 Iraq War UN 2004 Haiti UN UN UNSCR 1529 2011 Libya, No-Fly Zone UN UN UNSCR 1973 2011 Osama Raid UN Article 51

o The insensitivity to constraints imposed by IOs increases the likelihood of requesting international authorization.

o The expectation from other states that the intervenor should request authorization increases the likelihood of requesting international authorization.

Hypotheses

Iraq (2003)

Libya (2011)

Cases

o March 19, 2003-projection of military force

o Decision to Request International Authorization from the UNSC

o Costs of IO route for U.S.

Iraq

o March 19, 2011-projection of military force

o Decision to Request International Authorization from the UNSC

o Costs of IO route for U.S.

Libya

o Presidents & Parties

o Goals

o Disposition towards IOs

Comparison

o Expectations of other states

o Sensitivity to IO Constraints

Findings

?

Questions:

oConstraint

oPolicy Implementation

oGoals

oOrganization

oCosts of transactions

oTiming

oScrutiny

Costs of Using IOs

The Projection of Military Force is the purposeful deployment of regular military forces of a state outside their internationally recognized boundaries which destroys, or prevents an adversary from using, some resource.

Projection of Military Force

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Nu

mb

er

of

Reso

luti

on

s

Years

Cold War

Number of UNSC Resolutions 1946-2007

Active Peacekeeping Missions, 1947-2003

0

5

10

15

20

25

1947

1949

1951

1953

1955

1957

1959

1961

1963

1965

1967

1969

1971

1973

1975

1977

1979

1981

1983

1985

1987

1989

1991

1993

1995

1997

1999

2001

2003

Years

Nu

mb

er

Cold War Post-Cold War

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

80000

90000

Cold War

UN Peacekeepers 1947-2005

US Support for UN Membership

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

1950

1952

1954

1956

1958

1960

1962

1964

1966

1968

1970

1972

1974

1976

1978

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

Support for US Membership Opposition to US Membership

Descriptive Statistics Use of

International

Force

Percent

of

Cases

Cases of IO

Authorization

Percent

Total 156 100% 27 17.3%

Cold

War 114 74.7% 7 6.4%

Post-

Cold

War

42 25.3% 20 47.6%

U.S. Decisions to Project Military Force, 1946-2011

Year International Force IO 1950 Korean War UN 1950 Taiwan Straits 1958 US Intervention in Lebanon 1961 U.S. deployment in Thailand 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis OAS 1964 Vietnam War 1965 U.S. intervention in the OAS

Dominican Republic 1970 U.S. in Cambodia 1975 Mayaguez Incident 1980 Iran Hostage Rescue 1982 Sinai multinational Force 1982 U.S. intervention in Lebanon UN 1983 U.S. in Grenada 1986 Libyan Airstrikes by the U.S. 1987 Persian Gulf Tanker Reflagging 1989 Panama Intervention

Year International Force IO 1991 Persian Gulf War UN 1992 U.S. in Somalia UN 1993 U.S. in Iraqi No Fly Zone UN 1993 U.S. in Bosnia UN 1993 Baghdad Raid UN 1993 U.S. in Macedonia UN 1994 US Intervention in Haiti UN 1995 U.S. in Bosnia UN/NATO 1998 U.S. in Iraqi No Fly Zone UN 1998 U.S. in Afghanistan/Sudan 1998 U.S./UK Bombing Iraq UN 1999 NATO Air Campaign NATO 1999 U.S. Peacekeeping in Kosovo UN 2001 U.S. Intervention in Afghanistan UN 2003 Iraq War 2011 Libya, No-Fly Zone UN 2011 Osama Raid UN

U.S. Decisions to Project Military Force & IO Authorization

Time Period 1: 1946-1989 Time Period 2: 1990-2011

Auth

oriz

atio

n G

rante

d

1950 Korean War (UN)

1962 Cuban Missile Crisis (OAS)

1965 Dominican Republic (OAS)

1982 Lebanon (UN)

1991 Persian Gulf War (UN)

1992 U.S. in Somalia, UNITAF & UNOSOM II (UN)

1993 Iraq, Bush Plot Retaliation (UN)

1993 Enforcement of Iraq No Fly (UN)

1993 Bosnia (UN)

1993 Macedonia (UN)

1994 Haiti (UN)

1995 Bosnia, IFOR/SFOR (UN/NATO)

1998 Iraqi Airstrikes (UN)

1998 U.S./UK in Iraq, Desert Fox (UN)

1999 NATO Kosovo Air Campaign (NATO)

1999 Kosovo Peacekeeping Operation (UN)

2001 Afghanistan (UN)

2011 Libya, No-Fly Zone (UN)

2011 Osama Raid (UN)

Auth

oriz

atio

n N

ot

Gra

nte

d

1950 Taiwan Straits

1958 Lebanon

1961 Thailand

1964 Vietnam War

1970 U.S. in Cambodia

1975 Mayaguez Incident

1980 Iran Hostage Rescue

1982 Sinai Multinational Force

1983 Grenada

1984 Libyan Airstrikes

1987 Persian Gulf Tanker Reflagging

1989 Panama

1998 Afghanistan/Sudan Bombings

2003 Iraq War

U.S. Attempt to Acquire IO Authorization, 1946-2006

Time Period 1: 1946-1989 Time Period 2: 1990-2003

Atte

mpt

1950 Korean War (UN)

1962 Cuban Missile Crisis (OAS)

1965 Dominican Republic (OAS)

1982 Lebanon (UN)

1982 Sinai Multinational Force (UN)

1991 Persian Gulf War (UN)

1992 U.S. in Somalia, UNITAF & UNOSOM II (UN)

1993 Enforcement of Iraq No Fly (UN)

1993 Bosnia (UN)

1993 Macedonia (UN)

1994 Haiti (UN)

1995 Bosnia, IFOR/SFOR (UN/NATO) (UN)

1998 Iraqi Airstrikes (UN)

1998 U.S./UK in Iraq, Desert Fox (UN)

1999 NATO Kosovo Air Campaign (UN/NATO)

1999 Kosovo Peacekeeping Operation (UN)

2003 Iraq War

No A

ttem

pt

1950 Taiwan Straits

1958 Lebanon

1961 Thailand

1964 Vietnam War

1970 U.S. in Cambodia

1975 Mayaguez Incident

1980 Iran Hostage Rescue

1983 Grenada

1984 Libyan Airstrikes

1987 Persian Gulf Tanker Reflagging

1989 Panama

1993 Baghdad Raid

1998 Afghanistan/Sudan Bombings

2001 Afghanistan

2011 Osama Raid

International Force Options Option Example

Unilateral France intervention in

Comores (1995)

Ad hoc multilateralism Temporary coalition France, UK, Israel in the Suez

Crisis (1956)

Regional International

Organization

NATO, OAS

Universal International

Organization

UNSC

Removing the U.S. Use of

International

Force

Percent

of cases of

total with

U.S.

IO

Authorization

Percent of

Non-U.S.

cases

Total 119 79% 8 6.7%

Cold

War 96 85.7% 1 1%

Post-

Cold

War

23 60.5% 7 30.4%

U.S. Instances of International Force and UN Authorization, 1946-2006

Time Period 1: 1946-1989 Time Period 2: 1990-2003

Auth

oriz

atio

n

Gra

nte

d

1950 Korean War

1982 Lebanon

1991 Persian Gulf War

1992 U.S. in Somalia, UNITAF & UNOSOM II

1993 Enforcement of Iraq No Fly

1993 Bosnia

1993 Macedonia

1994 Haiti

1995 Bosnia, IFOR/SFOR (UN/NATO)

1998 Iraqi Airstrikes

1998 U.S./UK in Iraq, Desert Fox

1999 Kosovo Peacekeeping Operation

2001 Afghanistan

Auth

oriz

atio

n N

ot

Gra

nte

d

1950 Taiwan Straits

1958 Lebanon

1961 Thailand

1962 Cuban Missile Crisis (OAS)

1964 Vietnam War

1965 Dominican Republic (OAS)

1970 U.S. in Cambodia

1975 Mayaguez Incident

1980 Iran Hostage Rescue

1982 Sinai Multinational Force

1983 Grenada

1984 Libyan Airstrikes

1987 Persian Gulf Tanker Reflagging

1989 Panama

1993 Iraq, Bush Plot Retaliation

1998 Afghanistan/Sudan Bombings

1999 NATO Kosovo Air Campaign (NATO)

2003 Iraq War

UN Job Performance

UN Job Performance

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

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Dates

Pe

rc

en

t

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