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TRANSCRIPT
Presented by:
Dino Stamatiou Director, Business Intelligence
and Analytics
John Reichert Sr. Director SCE Solutions
The Next Big “Smarter” Thing
Predictive Analytics Join Real-Time Floor Execution
© 2016 MHI® Copyright claimed for audiovisual works and sound recordings of seminar sessions. All rights reserved.
Today’s Agenda
• The Case of the Sliding Forklift
• Predictive Analytics Explained – Internet of ‘Anything’
– Big Data Technology
– Machine Learning Themes
– Benefits from Predictive Analytics
• Putting Predictive Analytics into Action – Next Peak Season Planning
– Predicting Errors to Prevent Errors
– Get Home on Time Today
3
Slippery When Wet
4
Census
5
The Internet of
‘Anything’
Technology
Machine Learning • Classification
• Regression
• Association Rule Learning
• Clustering
• Anomaly Detection
• Sequential Pattern Mining
Methodology – CRISP DM
Benefits of Analytics for Supply Chains
Source: Accenture
Get home
on time for
dinner
Put Predictive Analytics into Action
Late Again?
• Not sure why, but always something
– Late arriving orders
– Correcting inventory errors
– Abnormal order spikes again
– Unexpected labor shortage
– Machine downtime
– Unexplainable productivity
– No clue, just a bad day
Next Peak Season Planning
Operations
“I want to be home on time for dinner.”
“I need additional staff”
“ Sales forecast is up.”
“ The warehouse will be too full.”
“ Productivity will be down.”
“ We must double check more orders.”
“ I need additional staff.”
“I won’t be home on time for dinner”
CFO
“Me too.”
“Why”
“That’s good!”
“You said that last year.”
“Why? You need to improve.”
“Then why are errors up?”
“Sales up 5%, you get 5%”
“Be optimistic!”
Next Peak Season Planning
65
XMAS1 XMAS2 XMAS3 Next
XMAS1
XMAS2
XMAS3
Next
Historical Pick Rate Trend
Rates w/o Predictive Analytics
Next Peak Season Planning
65
15
XMAS1 XMAS2 XMAS3 Next
Just Do It
Predicted
NOT Home for Dinner on Time
Management Edict: “Work Smarter”
Next Peak Season Planning
Predictive Analytics
Customer Errors
Pick Rates
Space Usage
Next Peak Season Planning
Space Utilization
Pick Rates
SpaceUtilization
Pick Rate
Space Constraint Trending Impact 65 drops to 51 Pick/Hr
Predictive Combination Results
Next Peak Season Planning
Pick Rates
Customer Errors 0
50
100
150
200
250
XMAS1 XMAS2 XMAS3 NEXT
Error $$
Labor $$
Building $$
Additional Variables
Next Peak Season Planning
XMAS1 XMAS2 XMAS3 Next
Space Utilization
Pick Rate
Building Expansion Predictive Results
Next Peak Season Planning
XMAS1 XMAS2 XMAS3 Next
Space Utilization
Pick Rate
Building Expansion Predictive Results
Next Peak Season Planning
XMAS1 XMAS2 XMAS3 NEXT
Error $$
Labor $$
Expand Bldg
Building $$
0
50
100
150
200
250
XMAS1 XMAS2 XMAS3 NEXT
Predictive and Measurable
Predicting Errors to Prevent Errors
WMS History
High Error Risk
Visual / Audio Caution
Current Pick Risk Prediction
(Item – Quantity – Operator)
Repetitive Errors
Predicting Errors to Prevent Errors
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
Prior 60 Days Post 60 Days
Re
po
rte
d E
rro
rs
Errors per 10,000 Picks
Highest Reported Error SKU’s
Absolute Zero!
Predicting Errors to Prevent Errors
What if no history of errors?
Get Home on Time Today
What If…. …Danger heard early
…Environment considered
…Results are predicted
…Optimum scenarios automated
…New situations are learned
Get Home on Time Today
Transfers
Mom &Pop
Big Box
E-Com
Amazon
Order Cut-Off Time
Predicted Additional
Orders
5:30 PM
6:00 PM Machine Capacity
Scheduled Labor
70
80
90
100
110
Wk1Wk2Wk3Wk4Wk5Wk6
John
Fred
Sam
Calvin
Tim
Individual Rates
Predicted Total Orders
Get Home on Time Today
Transfers
Mom &Pop
Big Box
E-Com
Amazon
Order Cut-Off Time
Predicted Additional
Orders
5:30 PM
6:00 PM
Scheduled Labor
Machine Capacity
70
80
90
100
110
Wk1Wk2Wk3Wk4Wk5Wk6
John
Fred
Sam
Calvin
Tim
Individual Rates
Predicted Total Orders
Get Home on Time Today
Revised Projection – Assign top performers most critical
– Project / notify over-time needs
– Engage workers in bid process
– Continuous feedback loop
Monitor and Adapt – Measure against predictions
– New data for future
The Next Big
“Smarter”
Thing
Predictive
Analytics
The Next Big
“Smarter”
Thing
Predictive
Analytics
For More Information:
website: www.tecsys.com
Or visit MODEX 2016 Booth #1547