THE NEW RULES OF THE POLITICAL GAME IN CALIFORNIA

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<p>California Legislature 101</p> <p>The New Rules of the Political Game in CaliforniaThe Problem and SolutionsConventional wisdom is that partisan polarization in California is caused by:Gerrymandering to create safe political districtsPrimary elections controlled by partisan extremists Proposed solutions are changes to these processes:Citizens Redistricting CommissionTop-two primaryBoth implemented in 2012 </p> <p>The New Electoral Rules for 2012After failed attempts in 1982, 1984, 1990, and 2005, voters passed initiative to create it</p> <p>2008 (Prop 11) and 2010 initiatives put power in the hands of commission</p> <p>After 104 public meetings in 32 cities, commission redrew lines without regard to party registration or incumbent addresses Over the past decade, primary elections have been used for parties (and independent voters if invited) to nominate general election candidates.</p> <p>2010 Prop. 14 takes parties out of the process: primary winnows the field to the top two candidates, regardless of party preference, to compete in general election</p> <p>Applies to state and federal offices Citizens Redistricting CommissionTop-Two PrimaryHistory of Party NominationsIn Californias history, the process of selecting party nominees has undergone significant changes.</p> <p>The Convention System, 1849-1908. Parties got to throw their own parties, managing and paying for conventions that were not regulated by the state.No laws against bribing delegates.No laws guaranteeing delegates the right to vote at a convention.Both sneaks and sluggers were employed as the occasion dictated. C. Edward Merriam, 1908. Streetfights between the longhair and shorthair Union partisans in 18666Historical Evolution of Candidate Nominations in CADirect primaries with cross-filing, 1908-1959.</p> <p>1908 initiative, pushed by Progressives, had the state take over and finance primaries in which party members voted.Cross-filing removed a candidates party label from the primary ballot, and allowed candidates to run in multiple primaries 7Historical Evolution of Candidate Nominations in CACross-FilingParty members could still select their nominee, but they often chose an incumbent from the other party.1952 initiative attached party labels.1959 abolition of cross filing prevented candidates from running in more than one party primary. 8Do Nomination Procedures Affect Partisan Polarization?</p> <p>9Historical Evolution of Candidate Nominations in CABlanket Primary, 1998-2000.Proposition 198, financed by moderate Republicans and reformers, let voters chose the primary in which they would participate.Meant to bring independents and moderates into the process, and select more moderate nominees.The US Supreme Court agreed that this system violated a partys freedom of association in California Democratic Party vs. Jones, 2000 10Historical Evolution of Candidate Nominations in CAIn June, 2010, voters passed the top-two primary lawPut on the ballot by moderate Republican Abel MaldonadoVoters can choose from all candidates from all parties in any officeThe top-two, regardless of party, advance to the November ballotThe Partisan Warfare of Redistricting: Rules of the GameAfter each census (2010, 2000, ...) new congressional, state Senate, and state Assembly districts drawn because:CA often got more seats in Congress.Old districts no longer = in population.</p> <p>In the past, new district maps passed as a bill in the legislature:Needed to pass each house with simple majorities and be signed by the governor, requiring compromise.12The Partisan Warfare of Redistricting: Rules of the GameLike any law, a redistricting plan can be overturned by a petition referendum</p> <p>If elected officials fail to reach an agreement, redistricting passes to the State Supreme Court, which may appoint Special Masters.</p> <p>The federal Voting Rights Act of 1965 allows affected voters to sue if the voting power of racial and ethnic minorities is diluted when lines drawn with discriminatory intent and effect.13The Partisan Warfare of Redistricting: Rules of the Game </p> <p>14</p> <p>Did it Work?Contrary to some expectations, the Commission did not deadlock, successfully defended plans in court</p> <p>New districts more geographically compact than prior districts</p> <p>More opportunities for Latino representation in the Assembly</p> <p>For parties, a washNeither party clearly advantagedSlight increase in the number of competitive seats</p> <p>Chart1-0.1022621-0.16394187-0.2309057-0.14725219-0.1977322-0.136545350.1584319-0.1268317-0.2297322-0.11854131-0.0191296-0.112030750.0099114-0.10756731-0.0655681-0.1052708-0.0943031-0.10305213-0.0348741-0.10155704-0.0843852-0.10007267-0.1306911-0.09856836-0.0178741-0.097304250.0563909-0.09519053-0.1451706-0.09444601-0.0635681-0.0931549-0.0986501-0.09540874-0.1658236-0.10340831-0.0009151-0.10631654-0.0491296-0.11121565-0.0092621-0.11680369-0.0540382-0.1175803-0.0480886-0.11904613-0.1127826-0.11942579-0.2319057-0.11862021-0.1505587-0.11666034-0.1127826-0.11409271-0.2320382-0.11160357-0.0192621-0.1091617-0.0286912-0.10628088-0.0966091-0.10211041-0.0967826-0.09556226-0.1304356-0.086497130.058167-0.07525864-0.0065271-0.06272619-0.0627826-0.050359670.0477789-0.03959361-0.1193031-0.03126012-0.0973441-0.02551956-0.0452873-0.022055440.0284319-0.020404090.0316465-0.02011610.2759935-0.021023260.0019935-0.023094560.0611669-0.02599126-0.0503535-0.02928763-0.0045271-0.03308065-0.1233031-0.03752041-0.0245587-0.04450983-0.0620382-0.053991960.0450943-0.06559673-0.0149057-0.07749424-0.1322117-0.08863648-0.0263852-0.09628774-0.1135176-0.09781244-0.0770382-0.0995174-0.0748647-0.10091936-0.1456501-0.0957812-0.2146911-0.092791-0.2087322-0.08304467-0.0526911-0.07050797-0.0262117-0.060048210.0958294-0.04868903-0.0086911-0.03521972-0.0657322-0.01961863-0.0019057-0.002518160.09944140.017986390.04648240.040182340.09734990.06189036-0.05247660.084223290.04948240.102867840.16830890.119127840.22513540.139941320.15396190.162935690.23544130.188118740.31413530.214202650.32713540.240911870.36948240.267894850.29909430.294804460.33826780.320373210.32696180.343451280.39165590.363791910.46430890.38286602</p> <p>Polarization Score in SessionSmoothed Polarization Series</p> <p>Sheet2YearPolarization in SessionSmoothed Polarization Trend18491851-0.1022621-0.163941871852-0.2309057-0.147252191853-0.1977322-0.1365453518540.1584319-0.12683171855-0.2297322-0.118541311856-0.0191296-0.1120307518570.0099114-0.107567311858-0.0655681-0.10527081859-0.0943031-0.103052131860-0.0348741-0.101557041861-0.0843852-0.100072671862-0.1306911-0.098568361863-0.0178741-0.0973042518650.0563909-0.095190531867-0.1451706-0.094446011869-0.0635681-0.09315491871-0.0986501-0.095408741873-0.1658236-0.103408311875-0.0009151-0.106316541877-0.0491296-0.111215651880-0.0092621-0.116803691881-0.0540382-0.11758031883-0.0480886-0.119046131885-0.1127826-0.119425791887-0.2319057-0.118620211889-0.1505587-0.116660341891-0.1127826-0.114092711893-0.2320382-0.111603571895-0.0192621-0.10916171897-0.0286912-0.106280881899-0.0966091-0.102110411901-0.0967826-0.095562261903-0.1304356-0.0864971319050.058167-0.075258641907-0.0065271-0.062726191909-0.0627826-0.0503596719110.0477789-0.039593611913-0.1193031-0.031260121915-0.0973441-0.025519561917-0.0452873-0.0220554419190.0284319-0.0204040919210.0316465-0.020116119230.2759935-0.0210232619250.0019935-0.0230945619270.0611669-0.025991261929-0.0503535-0.02928763Gridlock Percentage1931-0.0045271-0.033080650.01933-0.1233031-0.037520411935-0.0245587-0.0445098333.31937-0.0620382-0.0539919619390.0450943-0.0655967340.01941-0.0149057-0.077494241943-0.1322117-0.0886364837.51945-0.0263852-0.096287741947-0.1135176-0.0978124414.31949-0.0770382-0.09951741951-0.0748647-0.1009193633.31953-0.1456501-0.09578121955-0.2146911-0.09279157.11957-0.2087322-0.083044671959-0.0526911-0.0705079733.31961-0.0262117-0.0600482119630.0958294-0.0486890316.71965-0.0086911-0.035219721967-0.0657322-0.0196186328.61969-0.0019057-0.0025181619710.09944140.0179863950.019730.04648240.0401823419750.09734990.0618903630.01977-0.05247660.0842232919790.04948240.1028678450.019810.16830890.1191278419830.22513540.1399413270.019850.15396190.1629356919870.23544130.1881187471.419890.31413530.2142026519910.32713540.2409118766.719930.36948240.2678948519950.29909430.2948044650.019970.33826780.3203732119990.32696180.3434512816.720010.39165590.3637919120030.46430890.3828660233.320040.46430890.3828660250</p> <p>Sheet200000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000</p> <p>Unstandardized BUndstandardized Regression Coefficient of Party Predicting Ideal Points</p> <p>Polarization Score in SessionSmoothed Polarization Series</p>

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