March 2017

The New Morality (Revisited)

Introduction

The New Morality in 2012

Individualocracy

Citizen Brands

Individual Brands

Self Preservation Society

C-Suite Scrutiny

The New Morality

Cuts v spending

Business/Institutional

Scandals

Economic crisis

The Trajectory of Financial Crises

-9.0%

-8.0%

-7.0%

-6.0%

-5.0%

-4.0%

-3.0%

-2.0%

-1.0%

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26

Total GDP, quarterly change after pre-recession peak

80s recession

90s recession

Great Depression

2008 Financial

Crisis

Source: ONS

Institutional Scandal

Uncovering of

institutional scandal

Greater scrutiny on

boardrooms

Post-9/11 Geopolitics

Global Phenomenon in 2012

Impact on CSR and Reputation Management

Area for attention % who

mentioned,

2010

Executive Pay 35%

Employees being able

to speak about

company wrongdoings

24%

Sweatshop labour 23%

Environmental

Responsibility

21%

Area for attention % who

mentioned,

2006

Concern for the

environment

44%

Caring for employees 33%

Conserving energy 29%

Providing more jobs 28%

The shift in consumers’ ethical concerns since the outset of the downturn

reflects our finding that consumers are most likely to be agitated by

issues which might affect them

Source: Ipsos MORI, What areas should companies pay attention to/most need addressing?

Some trends…

The Moral Pulse of the Nation

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

Jun

-97

Oc

t-9

7

Feb

-98

Jun

-98

Oc

t-9

8

Feb

-99

Jun

-99

Oc

t-9

9

Feb

-00

Jun

-00

Oc

t-0

0

Feb

-01

Jul-01

No

v-0

1

Ap

r-02

Se

p-0

2

Jan

-03

Ma

y-0

3

Se

p-0

3

Jan

-04

Ma

y-0

4

Se

p-0

4

Jan

-05

Jun

-05

Oc

t-0

5

Ma

r-06

Jul-06

De

c-0

6

Jun

-07

Oc

t-0

7

Ma

r-08

Jul-08

No

v-0

8

Ap

r-09

Au

g-0

9

Ma

r-10

Jul-10

No

v-1

0

Ma

r-11

Jul-11

No

v-1

1

Ma

r-12

Jul-12

No

v-1

2

Ma

r-13

Jul-13

No

v-1

3

Ma

r-14

Jul-14

No

v-1

4

Ma

r-15

Jul-15

No

v-1

5

Ma

r-16

Jul-16

Defence/ForeignAffairs/InternationalTerrorism Economy/EconomicSituation

Housing NHS

Pollution/Environment Poverty

Immigration(RaceRelations/Immigration)

Source: Ipsos Issues Index, June 1997- October 2016

Economic Situation

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

Ju

n-9

7

Oc

t-97

Fe

b-9

8

Ju

n-9

8

Oc

t-98

Fe

b-9

9

Ju

n-9

9

Oc

t-99

Fe

b-0

0

Ju

n-0

0

Oc

t-00

Fe

b-0

1

Ju

l-01

No

v-0

1

Ap

r-02

Au

g-0

2

De

c-0

2

Ap

r-03

Au

g-0

3

De

c-0

3

Ap

r-04

Au

g-0

4

De

c-0

4

Ma

y-0

5

Se

p-0

5

Fe

b-0

6

Ju

n-0

6

No

v-0

6

Ma

y-0

7

Se

p-0

7

Fe

b-0

8

Ju

n-0

8

Oc

t-08

Fe

b-0

9

Ju

l-09

Fe

b-1

0

Ju

n-1

0

Oc

t-10

Fe

b-1

1

Ju

n-1

1

Oc

t-11

Fe

b-1

2

Ju

n-1

2

Oc

t-12

Fe

b-1

3

Ju

n-1

3

Oc

t-13

Fe

b-1

4

Ju

n-1

4

Oc

t-14

Fe

b-1

5

Ju

n-1

5

Oc

t-15

Fe

b-1

6

Ju

n-1

6

Oc

t-16

Source: Ipsos Issues Index, June 1997- October 2016

Lehman Bros.

Northern Rock

Pollution/Environment

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

Ju

n-9

7

Oc

t-97

Fe

b-9

8

Ju

n-9

8

Oc

t-98

Fe

b-9

9

Ju

n-9

9

Oc

t-99

Fe

b-0

0

Ju

n-0

0

Oc

t-00

Fe

b-0

1

Ju

l-01

No

v-0

1

Ap

r-02

Au

g-0

2

De

c-0

2

Ap

r-03

Au

g-0

3

De

c-0

3

Ap

r-04

Au

g-0

4

De

c-0

4

Ma

y-0

5

Se

p-0

5

Fe

b-0

6

Ju

n-0

6

No

v-0

6

Ma

y-0

7

Se

p-0

7

Fe

b-0

8

Ju

n-0

8

Oc

t-08

Fe

b-0

9

Ju

l-09

Fe

b-1

0

Ju

n-1

0

Oc

t-10

Fe

b-1

1

Ju

n-1

1

Oc

t-11

Fe

b-1

2

Ju

n-1

2

Oc

t-12

Fe

b-1

3

Ju

n-1

3

Oc

t-13

Fe

b-1

4

Ju

n-1

4

Oc

t-14

Fe

b-1

5

Ju

n-1

5

Oc

t-15

Fe

b-1

6

Ju

n-1

6

Oc

t-16

Source: Ipsos Issues Index, June 1997- October 2016

Pollution/Environment

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

18%

20%

Ju

n-9

7

Oc

t-97

Fe

b-9

8

Ju

n-9

8

Oc

t-98

Fe

b-9

9

Ju

n-9

9

Oc

t-99

Fe

b-0

0

Ju

n-0

0

Oc

t-00

Fe

b-0

1

Ju

l-01

No

v-0

1

Ap

r-02

Au

g-0

2

De

c-0

2

Ap

r-03

Au

g-0

3

De

c-0

3

Ap

r-04

Au

g-0

4

De

c-0

4

Ma

y-0

5

Se

p-0

5

Fe

b-0

6

Ju

n-0

6

No

v-0

6

Ma

y-0

7

Se

p-0

7

Fe

b-0

8

Ju

n-0

8

Oc

t-08

Fe

b-0

9

Ju

l-09

Fe

b-1

0

Ju

n-1

0

Oc

t-10

Fe

b-1

1

Ju

n-1

1

Oc

t-11

Fe

b-1

2

Ju

n-1

2

Oc

t-12

Fe

b-1

3

Ju

n-1

3

Oc

t-13

Fe

b-1

4

Ju

n-1

4

Oc

t-14

Fe

b-1

5

Ju

n-1

5

Oc

t-15

Fe

b-1

6

Ju

n-1

6

Oc

t-16

Source: Ipsos Issues Index, June 1997- October 2016

Jan 2007:

1 in 5

Feb 2012:

1 in 50

Defence/Terrorism

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

Ju

n-9

7

Oc

t-97

Fe

b-9

8

Ju

n-9

8

Oc

t-98

Fe

b-9

9

Ju

n-9

9

Oc

t-99

Fe

b-0

0

Ju

n-0

0

Oc

t-00

Fe

b-0

1

Ju

l-01

No

v-0

1

Ap

r-02

Au

g-0

2

De

c-0

2

Ap

r-03

Au

g-0

3

De

c-0

3

Ap

r-04

Au

g-0

4

De

c-0

4

Ma

y-0

5

Se

p-0

5

Fe

b-0

6

Ju

n-0

6

No

v-0

6

Ma

y-0

7

Se

p-0

7

Fe

b-0

8

Ju

n-0

8

Oc

t-08

Fe

b-0

9

Ju

l-09

Fe

b-1

0

Ju

n-1

0

Oc

t-10

Fe

b-1

1

Ju

n-1

1

Oc

t-11

Fe

b-1

2

Ju

n-1

2

Oc

t-12

Fe

b-1

3

Ju

n-1

3

Oc

t-13

Fe

b-1

4

Ju

n-1

4

Oc

t-14

Fe

b-1

5

Ju

n-1

5

Oc

t-15

Fe

b-1

6

Ju

n-1

6

Oc

t-16

Source: Ipsos Issues Index, June 1997- October 2016

9/11 7/7

Invasion of Iraq

Paris Attacks

Immigration

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

Ju

n-9

7

Oc

t-97

Fe

b-9

8

Ju

n-9

8

Oc

t-98

Fe

b-9

9

Ju

n-9

9

Oc

t-99

Fe

b-0

0

Ju

n-0

0

Oc

t-00

Fe

b-0

1

Ju

l-01

No

v-0

1

Ap

r-02

Au

g-0

2

De

c-0

2

Ap

r-03

Au

g-0

3

De

c-0

3

Ap

r-04

Au

g-0

4

De

c-0

4

Ma

y-0

5

Se

p-0

5

Fe

b-0

6

Ju

n-0

6

No

v-0

6

Ma

y-0

7

Se

p-0

7

Fe

b-0

8

Ju

n-0

8

Oc

t-08

Fe

b-0

9

Ju

l-09

Fe

b-1

0

Ju

n-1

0

Oc

t-10

Fe

b-1

1

Ju

n-1

1

Oc

t-11

Fe

b-1

2

Ju

n-1

2

Oc

t-12

Fe

b-1

3

Ju

n-1

3

Oc

t-13

Fe

b-1

4

Ju

n-1

4

Oc

t-14

Fe

b-1

5

Ju

n-1

5

Oc

t-15

Fe

b-1

6

Ju

n-1

6

Oc

t-16

Source: Ipsos Issues Index, June 1997- October 2016

Concern about poverty and housing on the rise

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

Jun

-97

Oc

t-9

7

Feb

-98

Jun

-98

Oc

t-9

8

Feb

-99

Jun

-99

Oc

t-9

9

Feb

-00

Jun

-00

Oc

t-0

0

Feb

-01

Jul-01

No

v-0

1

Ap

r-02

Se

p-0

2

Jan

-03

Ma

y-0

3

Se

p-0

3

Jan

-04

Ma

y-0

4

Se

p-0

4

Jan

-05

Jun

-05

Oc

t-0

5

Ma

r-06

Jul-06

De

c-0

6

Jun

-07

Oc

t-0

7

Ma

r-08

Jul-08

No

v-0

8

Ap

r-09

Au

g-0

9

Ma

r-10

Jul-10

No

v-1

0

Ma

r-11

Jul-11

No

v-1

1

Ma

r-12

Jul-12

No

v-1

2

Ma

r-13

Jul-13

No

v-1

3

Ma

r-14

Jul-14

No

v-1

4

Ma

r-15

Jul-15

No

v-1

5

Ma

r-16

Jul-16

Housing Poverty

Source: Ipsos Issues Index, June 1997- October 2016

The NHS

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

Ju

n-9

7

Oc

t-97

Fe

b-9

8

Ju

n-9

8

Oc

t-98

Fe

b-9

9

Ju

n-9

9

Oc

t-99

Fe

b-0

0

Ju

n-0

0

Oc

t-00

Fe

b-0

1

Ju

l-01

No

v-0

1

Ap

r-02

Au

g-0

2

De

c-0

2

Ap

r-03

Au

g-0

3

De

c-0

3

Ap

r-04

Au

g-0

4

De

c-0

4

Ma

y-0

5

Se

p-0

5

Fe

b-0

6

Ju

n-0

6

No

v-0

6

Ma

y-0

7

Se

p-0

7

Fe

b-0

8

Ju

n-0

8

Oc

t-08

Fe

b-0

9

Ju

l-09

Fe

b-1

0

Ju

n-1

0

Oc

t-10

Fe

b-1

1

Ju

n-1

1

Oc

t-11

Fe

b-1

2

Ju

n-1

2

Oc

t-12

Fe

b-1

3

Ju

n-1

3

Oc

t-13

Fe

b-1

4

Ju

n-1

4

Oc

t-14

Fe

b-1

5

Ju

n-1

5

Oc

t-15

Fe

b-1

6

Ju

n-1

6

Oc

t-16

Source: Ipsos Issues Index, June 1997- October 2016

Where are we now?

Where are we (right) now?

0

10

20

30

40

50

60 An important issue Most important issue

Source: IPSOS MORI Feb 2017

A United States perspective

Parallels between the UK and the US?

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

Source: Gallup March 2017

An International Perspective

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

1989-1993 1994-1999 1999-2004 2005-2007 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Immigrants/Foreign Workers (Below is a list of various groups of people, could

you please select any that you would not like to have as neighbours?)

UK

USA

Italy

Germany

Spain

Poland

China

Japan

Brazil

Mexico

Source: pre-2011, World Values Survey; post-2011, Trajectory Global Foresight

Where are we heading?

More than a lost decade…

Source: IFS

Anti-benefit feeling is still strong

1989, 15%

2009, 43%

2015, 31%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

1987 1989 1991 1993 1994 1995 1996 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

% disagree government should spend more money on welfare benefits

Source: British Social Attitudes

A hierarchy of the deserving…

2008, 83%

2015, 75%

2008, 67%

2008, 61%2015, 61%

2008, 72%

2015, 49%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

1998 2002 2004 2006 2008 2011 2013 2015

% would like to see more government spending on benefits for…

…people who care for those

who are sick or disabled

…parents who work on very

low incomes

…disabled people who cannot

work

…retired people

Source: British Social Attitudes

A more polarised morality?

Trust in business, institutions and experts is

on the retreat

“The 2017 Edelman Trust Barometer reveals the

largest-ever drop in trust across the institutions of

government, business, media and NGOs. Trust in

media (43 percent) fell precipitously and is at all-

time lows in 17 countries, while trust levels in

government (41 percent) dropped in 14 markets

and is the least trusted institution in half of the 28

countries surveyed.

The credibility of leaders also is in peril: CEO

credibility dropped 12 points globally to an all-

time low of 37 percent, plummeting in every

country studied, while government leaders (29

percent) remain least credible.

The Trust Barometer found that 53 percent of

respondents believe the current overall system

has failed them—it is unfair and offers little hope

for the future—while only 15 percent believe it is

working, and approximately one-third are

uncertain.”

Trust in ‘the people’ on the rise

30% 30%

39%

34%

40% 41%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

1994-1999 1999-2004 2005-2007 2011 2013 2014 2015

Generally speaking, would you say that most people can be trusted or that you

can't be too careful in dealing with people?; “Most people can be trusted”

Source: pre-2011, World Values Survey; post-2011, Trajectory Global Foresight

Implications for brand and reputation management

The New Morality in 2012

Individualocracy

Citizen Brands

Individual Brands

Self Preservation Society

C-Suite Scrutiny

The New Morality

Cuts v spending

Business/Institutional

scandals

Economic crisis

The New Morality in 2017 and beyond

Individualocracy

Clarity & Honesty of

brand purpose

Self Preservation Society

Death of Deference

The New Morality

Polarisation

Trust in ‘people’ over

business/institutions

Economic stagnation

Trajectory

22 Upper Ground, London, SE1 9PD

+ 44 (0)20 8004 4869

trajectorypartnership.com

@TrajectoryTweet