the new connected world order - nscs · by parag khanna. complexity, unpredictability, risk...
TRANSCRIPT
The New Connected
World OrderBy Parag Khanna
Complexity, Unpredictability, Risk
“Black Elephants”: Brexit, Trump, Currency Wars, Conflict Escalation
Economic
Converging Volatilities
● Ballooning debt
● Banking crises
● Protectionism
● Inequality
Environmental
Technological Geopolitical
● Climate change
● Eco-system stress
● Water scarcity
● Food security
● Disrupted business models
● Labor automation
● WMD proliferation
● Cyber-war
● Mideast collapse
● Terrorism’s global reach
● China/Asia tensions
● Western populism and unrest
Are we getting better at pricing risk, ringfencing volatility and mitigating long tails?
The Global
Connectivity
Revolution
Highways, railways, bridges, tunnels,
airports, seaports
Skeletal System Transportation
The Infrastructural Matrix: Exoskeleton on the
Planetary Body
Vascular System Energy
Nervous System Communication
Oil & gas pipelines and refineries,
electricity grids and power plants
Internet cables, satellites, data
centers
Geotechnology Drives Global Change
Mackinder, Luttwak …
Three reinforcing dimensions of power
Balance of innovation drives balance of power
Strategic industrial policy to capture value chains
Democracy versus authoritarianism old versus new
War b/w systems (capitalism versus communism) Tug-of-war within the collective supply chain matrix
Mackinder Modified: War over Territory War over Connectivity
TPP vs RCEP/FTAAP
Global trade is additive, not substitutive
Trade/investment/supply chain nexus
“Who Rules the Supply Chain, Rules the World”
Beyond Orwell’s 1984: Warring or fusing mega-continents?
China: Top Trading Partner for Twice as Many Countries as US
Dyads of leverage as well as dependence
Trade to investment to alliance?
From War or Tug-of-War: The New Geopolitics
China vs. Taiwan: Missiles or Mutual
Colonization
China vs. Japan: Senkaku/Diaoyu or
Softbank/Alibaba
West vs. Iran: Nukes or Great Emerging Market
West vs. Russia: Crimea or Gas Pipelines
US vs. China: Air-Sea Battle or TPP
China vs. ASEAN: Paracel Islands or RCEP
North vs. South Korea: Nukes or Supply Chains
China vs. India: Trade or Tibet
India vs. Pakistan: Fundos or MFN
Baltic Union: Shared
infrastructure and
governance services
European energy grid:
Integrated gas and
nuclear power
Europe-Russia: From
singular dependence to
reverse flows
Infrastructure as Authority: Reshaping Cross-Border Relations
East Meets West: Eurasia’s Iron Silk Roads
AIIB and the Compression of Eurasian Space: China Becomes a Two-Ocean Power
“Iron Silk Roads” win the “New Great Game”
Connectivity Fills the Power Vacuum
Infrastructure alliances: An equal global public good (that
can’t be deterred)
20th Century: NATO / Security 21st Century: AIIB /
Infrastructure
EU thinks like EPC not DoD: Connectivity across Eurasia
vs culture across Atlantic
Turkey: Member of both NATO and SCO?
The New Iron Age: Infrastructure as Extended Sovereignty
Grand Strategy: Avoid encirclement; control
infrastructure, trade routes, market access
overland and east of Malacca Strait
Post-ideological Geopolitics: Supply chain
complementarities > ideologies; Merkel: “No
eternal guarantee of EU-US close cooperation”
Realism > moralism: Engage and invest for
leverage in a post-sanctions world
Less connectivity, more belligerence: Russia,
Iran, North Korea
Competitive Connectivity: The Currency of Power
North America
South America
Europe Africa
Asia MiddleEast
The Geopolitical Marketplace: Connectivity and Resilience
Complementary Global Goods:
American security and Chinese
infrastructure
America the Global Utility: Security,
energy, finance, technology, language
From Hierarchy to Symmetry: Escape
the “Thucydides Trap” through
regionalism and reciprocity
From Grand Strategy to Global
Strategic Thought: Mutual connectivity,
Co-creation/Co-evolution
Global Evolution: From Connectivity to Resilience
No more chokepoints
Competitive connectivity builds
pathways for supply to meet demand
Ring-fencing volatility: Ukraine, Iraq,
Libya, South China Sea
Abundance and Stability
From “peak oil” to “gas glut”
US oil sales to China
Toward Antifragility (Taleb)
War is an event; networking building is
a process
