the national income in 1950 and future prospects

THE NATIONAL INCOME IN 1950 AND FUTURE PROSPECTS

(All tables contain figures in L millions at annual rates. For notes seeearlier issues of the BULLETIN, especially May 1950)

THE AGGREGATEIt will be appreciated by those who have followed our earlier papers that

we are working within the framework of the National Income White Paper,1and that in particular we use the official estimates, in this case for i as abase, obtaining the quarterly estimates from various indices. Our estimatesfor the year 1950 are not worked out afresh from income or production data.They are merely the average of the quarterly figures. Since the official 1949estimates are now doubtless somewhat out of date, the 1950 estimates havebeen shown throughout as a percentage of those for i 949.2

TABLE INational Income at Current Factor Cost, Seasonally Corrected

TABLE IINa.tiona.l Income ai Average 1949 Factor Cost, Seasonally Corrected

1 Except that our definitions exclude inventory gains throughout and are in principlenet of depreciation at replacement cost.

Even these percentages may be thrown out for the aggregates if the estimates ofsector totals (i.e. the weights) are out-of-date.

1950 as 1950Sector 1949 1950 % of

I II III IV1949

Agriculture 590 590 100 595 590 585 585Industry 5850 6470 1104 6280 6460 6510 6640Services......... 3130 3280 105 3160 3260 3350 3350

Total Business 9570 10340 108 10035 10310 10445 10575Government ...... 1130 1135 1004 1120 1115 1130 1175Other 425 470 1104 460 465 475 485

Gross Nationallncome 11125 11945 1074 11615 11890 12050 12235Less Depreciation 975 1015 104 1000 1010 1020 1030Net National Income 10150 10930 1074 10615 10880 11030 11205

1950 as 1950Sector 1949 1950 % of

I II III IV1949

Agriculture ...... 590 555 94 570 560 545 540Industry 5850 6330 108 6140 6310 6370 6480Servicea......... 3130 3220 102 3190 3190 3250 3250

Total Business 9570 10105 1054 9900 10060 10165 10270Government ...... 1130 1110 98 1115 1105 1105 1115Other 425 435 1024 425 430 440 450

GrossNationalincome 11125 11650 1044 11440 11595 11710 11855Less Depreciation 975 1015 104 1000 1010 1020 1030Net National Income 10150 10635 105 10440 10585 10690 10805

THE NATIONAL INCOME IN 1950 89

Our estimates show a rise of slightly under £800 millions in the netnational income, very much the same in fact as from 1948 to i (when itwas about £750 millions, on our definitions). The change in net real incomewas also much the same, about £45O-5OO millions at constant prices. Thedifference was in the nature of the increase. From 1948 to 1949, all sectorscontributed to the increase in real income: between i and i 950 the realoutput of Agriculture apparently dropped (because of the poor harvest),as did the real output of the Government sector, which was showing a fall inemployment till the Korean war started.1 The increased output in the Servicesector did not much exceed these falls, so that virtually the whole of theincreased real output came from the Industrial sector.

The estimates for the value of agricultural output have been revised in thelight of new material which the Ministry of Agriculture has very kindly putat our disposal. Our figure for the third and fourth quarters of 1950 is aforecast of the value of output for the crop-year 1950-51, and since the periodis still uncompleted the figure is necessarily subject to revision when fullerinformation becomes available. In arriving at the estimates for the value ofoutput in 1949 prices, the price index for agricultural products has beensmoothed so as to give a steady increase over the two years, and the figuresgiven here therefore differ from those which appeared in previous articles.

The estimates for the services sector have been recalculated, and minorrevisions have in consequence been made. It will be seen that the rise in thevalue of output in 1950 apparently took the form of a rise in volume of somethree per cent and a rise in price of about two per cent. The price-increasemainly reflects the rise in the Interim Index of Retail Prices and the increasein railway freight charges which came into effect in May. The increase iiivolume represents higher retail turnover and an expansion in transport otherthan the railways.

In the industrial sector, the composite price index, about which we havewritten much before, continued steady till the end of the year, the 'output'prices we used seeming just about to cover the rises in the import price index,after allowing for a time-lag, and suggesting continued stability in unit factorCost.

The increase in the real value of the industrial product, at £400-5oomillions in fixed prices, is £ioo millions more than the corresponding risebetween 1948 and 1949. It is too early as yet to carry our productivity esti-mates by industry far enough forward to give a detailed analysis covering thewhole year. We can however show the development for the whole sectorsince the start of the production index, by linking together the old and newemployment series.2

We can see here a definite acceleration in productivity growth, and also1 Our previous view that, there was a greater real increase last year than in the preceding

one, was due to insufficient allowance for these falls.2 With the help of the overlap in the second half of 1948. The manpower aggregate for

this sector seems to be on the new basis 1.106 times what it would have been on the oldbasis.

* Quarterly production estimates are seasonally corrected, and hence the 'productivity'estimates are corrected too.

t Provisional.

about when it occurred. Up to 1949 the rise was continuing at about percent per annum, slightly slowed up by the fuel crisis in 1947. Then after thefirst quarter of 1949, it started to increase at a fairly steady rate of two pointsa quarter, or about 7 per cent per annum, though there seems to have beensome slight slowing up of the rate of increase in the latter part of I 95O.

DISTRIBUTIVE SHARESThe wage-bill, after increasing comparatively slowly over the first three

quarters of 1950, shows a sudden upward surge in the fourth quarter. Thisincrease is largely due to the sharp rise in the Ministry of Labour index ofweekly wage-rates, which, after standing at i io (June 1947 = ioo) since thebeginning of the year, moved to 114 during the last quarter. Wage-rateincreases were fairly widespread, major rises being granted in engineerin,shipbuilding and agriculture. It is interesting to note that the wage-billincreased between 1948 and 1949 by about the same proportion as realnational output ( per cent), suggesting that unit labour cost was unchangedover the period, though this average stability was the resultant of a fall in thefirst three quarters and a rise thereafter.

The movement of the wage bill is paralleled by a sharp rise in the salarybill (a notable increase having been granted to civil servants) and in Forces'Pay, the estimate attempting to take account of the substantial increases inrates granted from Sept. Ist, 1950.

The increase in these components provide the explanation for the failureof the profit residual to rise further. Until then it had absorbed the greater

1 The provisional index number of 138 for December is a slight danger signal here.because even after correction for seasonal influences this only suggests a value of about140. Individual monthly values are, however, often 3-4 points off the trend.

Production Employment 'Productivity'

1948 121 110* 109*1949 129 112 1151950 140 114 122*

1948' I 118 110* 107II 119* 110* 108III 121* 110* 110IV 124 111* 111

19491 I 124* 111* 111*II 1281 111* 115III 129* 112 1151IV 133 113 117*

1950 I 1351 113 120II 139 1131 122*III 1401 114 123IV 143t 115 1241f

90 THE BULLETIN

The Pos!- War Growth of Industrial Production(1946=100)


part of the increased national income (both concepts, we should repeat,excluding inventory gains). Compared to a rise of about 4OO million in theprofits residual over 1948-9, there seems to have been an acceleration inthe profit trend, though this was at least temporarily suppressed by the wagerises in the fourth quarter.

TABLE IIINational Income by Distributive Shares. Seasonally Corrected

PERSONAL INCOMEThe method of estimating personal income and saving was fully discussed

in a previous paper.1 There have been some changes in estimates for earlierquarters, mainly as a result of revisions in estimates of agricultural output(hence of farmers' income) and of consumption. The revision to the estimateof consumption in the third quarter makes the saving residual show virtuallyno change, compared to the increase yielded by the previous and lowerestimate of consumption. This emphasises how sensitise to errors theestimate of saving is, and how cautious interpretation should therefore be.The overall picture suggests that saving, before provision for death duties,and net of inventory gains, was about the same in 1950 as in 1949, thoughthis was probably due to a decline in the spring of to a level which wasmaintained till a rise in the last quarter of 1950, suggesting a fairly sym-metrical development over the two years.

TABLE IVPersonal Income and Savings

1 Inventory gains and taxes thereon, and capital taxes are excluded throughout.$ See BuLaErIN for January. 1951.

Source 1949 19501950 as% of1949

1950

I II III IV

Wages 4280 4485 104+ 4415 4445 4470 4-615Salaries 2250 2305 102+ 2280 2290 2305 2330Forces' Pay ...... 245 235 96 230 220 230 265Rest ......... 470 480 102 475 480 480 480Profits and Interest 2905 (3425) 118 (3215) (3445) (3545) (3515)

Net National Income 10150 10930 107+ 10615 10880 11030 11205

1949 1950 1950as % of

1949

1950

I II III IV

ersonal Income ... 10140 10600 104+ 10465 10510 10600 10870ess Tax Liabilities ... 134-0 1380 103 1420 ---1340 1355 1400)isposable Income ... 8800 9220 105 9045 9170 9245 9470ess Consumption ... 8410 8835 105 8705 8770 8885 8950ersonal Savings ... (390) (385) (99) (340) (400) (360) (520)

92 THE BULLETIN

BALANCE OF PAYMENTS

The final figures for the balance of payments support the suggestion madein our previous article, that the current account surplus for the year mayhave been nearly £zso millions. There was a fall in the surplus between thethird and fourth quarter, because of the remarkably high import values inthe fourth quarter.1 Over the year as a whole, the outstanding feature hasbeen the rise in exports. According to the Board of Trade Index, the volumeof visible exports in 1950 was about 15 per cent greater than in 1949, andduring the last quarter of 1950 it was 25 per cent greater. The expansion hasbeen greatest (as one would expect) in the case of sales to countries whichdid not devalue their currencies, or devalued by less than 30 per cent, in1949. At the same time, there has been a striking increase in the value of'invisible' exports. Cmd. 8065 indicates that shipping earnings haveincreased considerably, but the most important change has been in therather mysterious portmanteau item ' Other (net) '. It seems likely thatmuch of this is due to an increase in earnings under the item ' overseastransactions of British oil companies '.

As a result of this increase in exports, the current account balanceimproved considerably, to about £'75 millions for the second half of the year,despite the fact that the volume of imports was maintained and importprices were appreciably higher in 2950 that in 1949.2

TABLE V

Foreign trade at current prices, NOT seasonally corrected

1 In comparing the estimates for the second half of 1950 with those for the first sixmonths it should be remembered that a higher correction factor has been applied to importsin the second period. If the correction factor had been the same, the value of imports inthe latter half of the year would have been greater.

The import price index was over 15 per cent higher.

1950 as 19501949 1950 % of

II III IV1949 I

Visible Imports 1965 2320 118 2170 2430 2235 2460Invisible Imports ... 540 540 100 510 505 590 550

Total Payments ... 2505 2860 114 2680 2935 2825 3010

Visible Exports ... 1820 2220 122 2100 2070 2230 2485Invisible Exports 650 870 134 785 870 915 915

Total Receipts ... 2470 3090 125 2885 2940 3145 3400

Surplus (+) or 35 +230 +205 +5 +320 +390Deficit ()

CONSUMPTION

In our table of consumption expenditure we do not show a detailedanalysis for the fourth quarter of 1950, because the data available at timeof going to press are inadequate to enable such a breakdown to be made withany accuracy. We do, however, show annual totals which imply an estimatefor the fourth quarter: the justification for this procedure being that theinaccuracies in the rough working estimates which we use for the fourthquarter are unlikely to disturb the annual figures greatly.

We have also dropped the detailed quarterly fixed-price estimates: asexplained in the January BULLETIN, we intend to alter the method of calcula-ting these estimates in future.

The changes in consumption expenditure between 1949 and 1950 areremarkably similar to those which took place between 1948 and 1949. Onceagain it is the expenditures on food, household goods and clothing whichshow the sharpest increases, whilst expenditures on drink and tobacco showlittle change. Both in 1949 and 1950, the proportion of total annualexpenditure absorbed by these latter items has tended to decline (thoughthe decline seems to have been arrested in the latter part of the year).

Reference to the fixed price table shows that well over half of the increasedexpenditure represented a 'quantity' increase, the remainder being accountedfor by the continuing increases in prices. Food prices, in particular, increasedsharply between 1949 and 1950, and the 'quantity' increase for this itemwas modest compared with the 'value' increase.

1949 19501950 as% of1949

1950

I II III IV

Visible Imports ... 1965 2320 118 2260 2310 2235 2485Invisible Imports ... 540 540 100 525 525 535 570

Total Payments ... 2505 2860 114 2785 2835 2770 3055

Visible Exports ... 1820 2220 122 2080 2110 2280 2410Invisible Exports ... 650 870 134 785 875 905 920

Total Receipts ... 2470 3090 125 2865 2985 3185 3330

Surplus (+) or 35 +230 +80 +150 +415 +275Deficit () ......


TAB1.E VI

Foreign trade at current trices, seaona1ly corrected

Detail does not add to total because of rounding.

TABLE VIIIFinal Consumption at average 1949 prices

Detail does not add to total because of rounding.

NATIONAL EXPENDITUREIf we compare these preliminary estimates with forecasts in the Economic

Survey, we find that as usual the rise in the national income appears to havebeen greathr than anticipated. The rise in industrial productivity hasbeen about double the 3 per cent expected, and there was in additiona slight rise in the labour force. Together these yielded nearly 5oO millionshigher output, instead of £zoo millions, working at fixed prices. There hasalso been a rise of something like another £zoo millions from other sectors,compared to £ioo millions forecast,1 so that altogether G.N.P. at currentfactor cost, net of inventory gains, was nearly 4OO million above expectation.

A large part of this unexpected increase appears to have been used inraising personal consumption more than was anticipated. It is interesting tonote that the effect of the continued cautious productivity estimates in recentyears must have been to keep the capital investment below what would

'It is incidentally curious that the Survey forecast an unchanged net income from abroaddespite the sharp rise given by devaluation to the sterling value of remittances fromountrjes which did not devalue.

1949 19501950 as

% of1949

1950

1 II III

Food ... 2380 2590 109 2635 2610 2500Drink ... 720 730 101 685 715 750Tobacco ... 765 770 100* 730 775 825Rent and Rates 615 630 102 620 630 630Fuel and Light 350 370 105* 365 370 370Household goods 580 630 108* 635 605 635Clothing ... 950 995 104* 950 945 1045Other ... 2055 2120 103 2085 2120 2130

Total ... 8410 8835 105 8705 8770 8885

1949 1950 as % of 1949

Food ............ 2380 24-40 702kDrink ............ 720 750 104Tobacco ............ 765 765 100Rent and Rates ......... 615 625 707*Fuel and Light ... 350 365 104Household G<>js ... 580 615 106Clothing ............ 950 985 103fOther ............ 2055 2095 102

Total ............ 8410 8640 703

94 THE BULLETIN

TABLE VIIFinal Consumption at current prices, seasonally corrected


otherwise have been thought possible, with some overflow of output runninginto consumption. The paradoxical result has been that a sober assessmentof productivity has meant provision for the present rather than the future.Caution has implied extravagance.

The other use of output which has exceeded forecast is the exportsurplus. The Survey modestly hoped that the balance of payments might'even show a surplus on current account'. Actually during 1950 visibleexports increased by some £400 millions over 1949 compared to ,zzomillions anticipated, and for the whole of the second half we were nearly inbalance on visible account. The Survey was cautious about imports, but theincrease seems to have been slightly greater than was expected. It implied aninvisible surplus of about £200 millions, which also appears an under-estimate.

Indications about Government current spending are very slight, but it ispossible that (contrary to our previous impression) this has been, despite theKorean war, running under expectations. The implied movement of capitalinvestment is very tentative, being the residual of so many other estimates.It suggests about the same level as 1949 at current prices, but a fall (doubtlessdue to destocking) when price changes are taken into account.

TABLE IXNational Expenditure at Current Prices NOT Seasonally Corrected

TABLE XNational Expenditure al Current Prices, Seasonally Corrected

1949 1950 1950as % of

1949

1950

I II III IV

:onsumption ... 8410 8835 105 8220 8735 9070 9320ovt. current spending 2035 2175 107 2150 2165 2170 2215et investmentxport deficit ()or Surplus (+)

1380

40(1465)

+230

(106) (1625)

+205

(1805)

+5

(1085)

+325

(1415)

+390

Çet National Product 11785 12705 108 12200 12710 12650 13340tess net indirect Taxes 1635 1775 108+ 1575 1770 1900 1855et National Income 10150 10930 107+ 10625 10940 10750 11485

1949 1950 1950as % of

1949

1950

I II III IV

onsumption ... 8410 8835 105 8705 8770 8885 8950;ovt. current spending 2035 2175 107 2150 2165 2170 2215et Investment ...xport deficit ()or Surplus +) ...

1380

40(1465)

+230

(106) (1320)

+80

(1560)

+150

(1410)

+420

(1615)

+275

et National Product 11785 12705 108 12255 12645 12885 13005L.ess net indirect Taxes 1635 1775 108+ 1640 1765 1855 1850et National Income 10150 10930 107+ 10615 10880 11030 11205

FUTURE PROSPECTSIn assessing prospects, very different answers can be reached according

to the base period used. If we took the calendar year 1950 as base and triedto forecast items for the calendar year 1951, the outlook would seem morehopeful than if we worked in fiscal years, because of1 the time it will take thearms programme to become an effective burden. Thus for the calendaryears, an expectation of 4 per cent rise in industrial productivity would notseem unreasonableit may perhaps have been about achieved already.But for the financial years it would look slightly harder to achieve. On theother hand the export surplus was much larger in the second half of the year,which really had in fact a different shape economically from the first half,since the export opportunities due to Western rearmament had arrivedwithout the corresponding strain of raw material shortages or rapidly risinginternal prices.

Because of the rather rapidly changing situation, it would seem preferableto take a date rather than a period as base for forecasting, and the best dateseems to be end-September 1950, which came roughly at the beginning of thenew period .of rearmament, and lay in the middle of the fiscal year which isnow ending. The basic national accounts at that date were approximatelyas follows (in seasonally corrected annual rates):

Annual Ralas of Income and Expenditure at end-September, 1950

To show the impact of the new arms programme on the economy, weshall attempt to predict the situation at end-September, 1951. Let us firstwork in real terms, ignoring price changes; except for rises in import prices

1949 1950 1950as % of

1949

1950

I II III IV

onsumption ... 8410 8640 103 8540 8590 8690 8730;ovt.currentspending 2035 2120 104 2120 2115 2115 2125et Investment ...xport deficit ()or Surplus+) ...

1380

40(1160)

+440

(84) (1235)

+210

(1210)

+355

(1050)

+605

(1125)

+595

qet National Product 11785 12360 105 12105 12270 12460 12575ess net indirect Taxes 1635 --1725 105j 1665 1685 1770 1770Increase ...... 10150 10635 105 10440 10585 10690 10805

Net National Product ...... 12950 Consumption .......... 8925Less Export Surplus 350 Government Current SpendingCivil ............ 1325

Military ......... 875Net Capital Investment ...... (1475)

Net Resources:Available at Heme ...... 12600 Net Resources Used at Home ... 12600

96 THE BULLETIN

TABLE XINotional Expenditure at Average 1949 Prices, Seasonally Corrected


(which do constitute a 'real' change as far as we are concerned). Theofficial 4 per cent would seem a rather high increase for next Septeifberover last September. Much depends on such factors as industrial unrest andmaterial supplies, but if we allowed for overall industrial productivity to besix months hence only slightly above the New Year level, and also for ratherbetter agricultural experience, we would obtain a level of output £zoo m.higher than in September 1950. The Chancellor implied a loss of' at least'

300m. owing to the turning of the terms of trade further against us. It is notquite clear whether he was thinking in calendar years, or fiscal years, but ineither case it would seem an estimate appropriate to our forecast. It is pre-sumably obtained as the difference between a rise in imports of some L600m.(annual rate) due to price rises, less about J3oom. rise in exports due to therise in export prices. However, part of the latter will reflect increasedcosts at home, and must be excluded for the moment, since we are assumingfixed factor cost, and we are left with £100 m. due to the import content ofexports.' Let us also take it that the new annual rate of military expenditurehas been reached by then.2 In this case the real cost of changes over this12 months could be shown as:

(L millions, annual rates)Increased Military Spending £425Increased Cost of Imports ...Less Induced rise in Export ValueLess Increased national output .. . L200

£725

Some of this will be offset (Lzoom. if we follow the Chancellor)3 by otherrises in export prices, due to higher internal costs and, possibly, revaluation.Still clearly something must be found by reductions in the national outputgoing to exports, consumption, Government civil spending and investment.There can hardly be any net fall in the last of these, because destocking mustchange to stockbuilding, and there will be some capital investment for thearms programme in the private sector, which must outweigh any economiesdue to shortages of capital goods. Suppose that on balance investment risesabout LI 25m. though this is admittedly very speculative. Assuming thatshortages of supply reduce the quantitity of exports by L loom., and Govern-ment civil spending slightly; and that the import price rise induces £Som.increase in capital investment, and £25 m. in Government civil spending,we have the following picture for September 1951

The Chancellor's statement implies a pair of assumptions about import prices andfactor cost in export industries, e.g. a 20 per cent rise in import prices and 3 per cent risein export factor cost, a 25 per cent rise in import prices and 9 per cent rise in export factorcost, or a 30 per cent rise in import prices and 15 per cent rise in export factor cost (assumingimports form 20 per cent of the value of exports). The second of these assumptions appearsthe most plausible, since he could hardly anticipate the rises in factor cost otherwise implied.It would also account for the at least'.

'The officially announced rate is measured in costs current in February, 1951. Ittherefore allows for higher factor cost than at September 1950, but on the other hand forlower import costs than have been assumed here.

'Or strictly, to provide a net deterioration of £300m. in the terms of trade, as theChancellor suggested.

98 THE BULLETIN

Illustrative Annual Raies of Income and Expenditure at end-September, 195,I. (Assuming factor cost unchanged since end-September. 1950)

This would indicate a fall in real consumption of about £zoo millions,or 2-2f per cent, since a price rise of £400m., owing to higher importprices, has been written into the consumption estimates.

The assumption about unchanged factor cost is however very unrealistic.While fixed price forecasts could usefully be made in the past, the currentchange in factor cost is so great as to be a major influence on the wholedevelopment.' The purpose of working in two stages, taking account firstof' real 'then of factor cost changes, is simply procedural, in that it allows aclearer judgement of the underlying assumptions, and a separation ofinfluences. It also allows the effect of alternative assumptions about factorcost to be judged. If we make such alternative assumptions, we can showsomething of the margin for error in such forecasts, and also indicate what isinvolved in a fast as opposed to a slow rise in internal incomes. The relevantinformation here is the index of wage rates, since in a period of slowly risingproductivity, this would only move slightly faster than an index of unit labourcost. Given the cost accounting procedures often used2 and the strength ofdemand for output, an index of unit labour cost in turn amounts to an indexof overall factor cost per unit of output. The wage-rate index superficiallyrose 4 points, or about 3 per cent, in the last quarter of 1950. There is,however, a slight snag here due to rounding. The September figure was thelast of nine consecutive estimates of ' 110 ', over a period when there was atlest some slight upward rise. It can therefore be taken as about 110.4 to onedecimal place, so that an estimated rise of 3 per cnt would be nearer.3 Thissuggests a rise of some 22 per cent over the year concerned, though theincrease depends on many factors including how long wage increasesalready announced satisfy those who have received them. Allowing for theproductivity rise, it would seem that the increases in unit factor cost might beabout 7j per cent to JO per cent, and we shall in fact work with both thesefigures. Such a rise would tend to be spread fairly evenly outside theGovernment sector, where the increase would be somewhat damped by theinflexibility of rates of pay. The two assumptions would then yield nationalaccounts as follows4:

1Even the real' development, in so far as it reduces the loss resulting from thedeterioration in the terms of trade.

i.e. the use of percentage ' gross margins'.As we have suggested before, the wage-rate index should be quoted to at least the

nearest half unit.No change in net indirect tax is assumed for although ad valor em taxes will increase,

there will be some fall in the receipts of taxes on consumcr durables, because of shortages,and on luxuries in as far as rising living costs enforce some economies.

Net National Product ... 13150 Consumption ......... 9125Plus Import Surplus ... 250 Govt. Current spending:

1325Military 1300

Net Capital Investment ... 1650

Net Resources Available at Home 13400 Net Resources Used at Home ... 13400

The Government might of course not consider such an import surplustolerable, though apparently there is still a possibility of American economicaid which would in effect finance it without any net loss of oversea assets.'

National Income and Expenditure at end-September. 1951(Assuming factor cost 10 per cent above end-September. 1950)

The final step is to see what degree of inflationary pressure is indicatedby these assumptions. For incomes we make the following assumptions:Wages are assumed to remain the same proportion of national income2(which is likely in that much of the price rise will be wage-induced),Salaries to rise at a rather slower rate than unit factor cost, Farmers' incometo gain slightly (consistent with the assumption of higher agricultural output),Professional earnings to be unchanged, Dividend payments to rise but alsoby rather less than unit factor cost, and Transfers to continue on the upwardtrend. For Sole Traders, we could no longer use the previous method oflinking their income to retail turnover, since we can no longer assume costsconstant, and we had to guess here. Once having estimated income, the taxliabilities are given by the marginal tax rates we use, provided we make therelevant assumption that the tax rates are unchanged. Finally consumptionexpenditure is taken from the table above.

These calculations are necessarily rough.3 They have been fully workedout because any assessment of the immediate future should take all likelydevelopments into accountanticipated changes in output, prices, taxes andresource allocation. They suggestone cannot put it strongerthat theshortage of consumer goods will have made the 'gap ' between incomes andconsumption I5om. wider by next autumn, compared to last autumn.

We should emphasise that we are not predicting that voluntary savingwill be £x5om. higher. This is merely the addition to savings that will berequired, if tax rates are unchanged, to release resources for the arms

1 The Chancellor has also announced that the Government would be prepared to rundown foreign exchange reserves to finance stockpiling of materials.

'i.e. to move with total factor cost and with productivity.In particular it should be remembered that indirect taxes are assumed constant in

agregato. If thov rise at all, the inMationarv gap will be closed to that extent.

Net National Product ... 14250 Consumption 9725Import Surplus ... 75 Govt. current spending:Civil ......... 1425

Military 1375

Net Capital Investment .. 1800


Net National Product ... 13950 Consumption 9550Import Surplus . -- loo Govt. current spending:Civil ......... 1400

Military 1350Net Capital Investment ... 1750


THE NATIONAL INCOME IN 1950 99National Income and Expenditure at end-September, 1951(Assuming factor cost 7 per cent above end-September 1950)

100 THE BULLETIN

Annual Raies of Personal Income and Saving

programme. Since it is unlikely that people would voluntarily save L iom.mote this additional amount is an indication of the widening of the inflation-ary 'gap', the ex ante gap between investment and anticipated voluntarysaving. Thus the Government would need either a higher import surplus, orlower capital investment, or lower civil expenditure, or higher taxes, to reducethis gap, if it wants an arms programme of the magnitude contemplated with-out increased inflationary pressure.

This of course only refers to next autumn. After that, since it appearsthat military expenditure will continue to increase more rapidly than nationalincome, there will be a continued fall in real consumption and a continuedwidening of the inflationary 'gap ', particularly since sve will not be able torun down an export surplus (though presumably international allocation ofraw materials will by then be keeping import prices down).

It is interesting to note that the sharper price rise seems to have very littleeffect on the inflationary 'gap'. This is because the rises in incomes arebalanced by the induced rises, in income tax and retail prices. Such estimatesof course take into acount only the most 'macro-economic' considerations,They do not, for example, allow for any special raw material difficulties, suchas a more acute coal shortage, that might result from the pressures of rearma-ment: nor for any changes in savings propensities that might result fromalterations in income distribution or from expectations of further price rises.This is very far from the whole story,1 but on the other hand it would take aseries of cumulating errors to disturb the main conclusions greatly. For thepresent the economist's calculations of the net depressive or stimulating effectof economic events must take he form of working out the direct implicationsof certain assumptions. Such conclusions can at most tell us the rough size ofthe problem, but it is something to know that.

DUDLEY SEERS.In association with P. D. HENDERSON and D. G. HOLLAND.

1 One is almost tempted to say that any resemblance to actual situations would bepurely coincidental.

End-Sep Leni ber1950

End-September, 1951Assuming 7j% Assu,ning 10%

rise in rise infactor cost factor cost

Wages 4500 5000 5125Salaries 2325 2450 2500Forces' Pay 250 325 325Mixed Incomes 1350 1450 1475Distributed Property Income 1525 1600 1625Transfer Incomes 775 800 800

Total Personal Income 10725 11625 11850Less Tax Liabilities 1375 1500 1550Disposable Income 9350 10125 10300Less Consumption 8925 9550 9725Personal Savings 425 575 575

the national income in 1950 and future prospects

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