the nasdaq - milken institute...the nasdaq at milken global conferences 1857 march 20, 2001 5048...
TRANSCRIPT
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2381March 12, 1999
20022001200019991998
6000
5000
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Index
The NasdaqAt Milken Global Conferences
1857March 20, 2001
5048March 10, 2000
1771March 13, 1999
1753April 22, 2002
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October 1, 1999
October 1, 1999Dow = 10,273
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Down in 2001…
CompanyApr. 2000
PriceApr. 2001
Price%
ChangeCorning 66 22 -66%Hewlett-Packard 53 28 -47JDS Uniphase 104 21 -80Lucent 59 10 -83Nokia 56 34 -39Nortel Networks 56 15 -73Oracle 40 16 -60Qualcomm 108 57 -47Sun 46 17 -63Verisign 139 51 -63Worldcom 44 18 -44
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…And Again in 2002
CompanyApr. 2001
PriceApr. 2002
Price%
ChangeCorning 22 7 -68%Hewlett-Packard 28 18 -36JDS Uniphase 21 6 -71Lucent 10 5 -50Nokia 34 18 -47Nortel Networks 15 4 -73Oracle 16 12 -25Qualcomm 57 38 -33Sun 17 9 -47Verisign 51 25 -51Worldcom 18 6 -66
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1998 IPO
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1999 IPO
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2000 IPO
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2001 IPO
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2002 IPO
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What Were They Thinking?From the Napster Website
Copyright 2001 Napster Inc. All Rights Reserved
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2001
12
2002
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2001…First There Were Five
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2002…Then There Were Four
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2001…12 Currencies In Euro-Zone
Belgian franc
Greek drachma
French franc
Italian lira
Dutch guilder
Portuguese escudo
Deutsche Mark
Spanish peseta
Irish pound
Luxembourg franc
Austrian schilling
Finnish markka
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2002…One Euro
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Japan’s Changing LeadershipPrime Ministers Since 1989
Junichiro Koizumi Apr. '01 - PresentYoshiro Mori Apr. '00 - Apr. '01Keizo Obuchi Jul. '98 - Apr. '00Ryutaro Hashimoto Jan. '96 - Jul '98Tomiichi Murayama Jun. '94 - Jan. '96Tsutomu Hata Apr. '94 - Jun. '94Morihiro Hosokawa Dec. '93 - Apr. '94Kiichi Miyazawa Oct. '91 - Dec. '93Toshiki Kaifu Sept. '89 - Oct. '91
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Tiger in 2001…Tiger in 2002
2001 2002
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Al In 2001…
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…Al In 2002
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Commander In Chief
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Commander In Chief
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2002200120001999
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Price
The Street RecommendsBuy This Stock
Buy53 on 12/1/99
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2002200120001999
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Price
The Street RecommendsBuy This Stock
Buy48 on 2/10/00
Buy 53 on 12/1/99
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2002200120001999
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Price
The Street RecommendsBuy This Stock
Buy40 on 7/27/00
Buy 48 on 2/10/00Buy 53 on 12/1/99
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The Street RecommendsBuy This Stock
2002200120001999
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Price
Buy27 on 10/5/00
Buy 40 on 7/27/00
Buy 53 on 12/1/99Buy 48 on 2/10/00
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2002200120001999
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Price
The Street RecommendsBuy This Stock
Buy14 on 1/2/01
Buy 27 on 10/5/00
Buy 53 on 12/1/99Buy 48 on 2/10/00
Buy 40 on 7/27/00
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2002200120001999
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Price
The Street RecommendsBuy This Stock
Buy5 on 4/11/02
Buy 14 on 1/2/01
Buy 53 on 12/1/99Buy 48 on 2/10/00
Buy 40 on 7/27/00
Buy 27on 10/5/00
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2002200120001999
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Price
The Street RecommendsBuy This Stock
Neutral6 on 4/22/02
Buy 5 on 4/11/02
Buy 53 on 12/1/99Buy 48 on 2/10/00
Buy 40 on 7/27/00
Buy 27 on 10/5/00Buy 14 on 1/2/01
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A Less Cyclical EconomyReal GDP 1948 - 2001
0095908580757065605550
20
15
10
5
0
-5
-10
-15
Percent Change, SAAR
8 Recessions in 35 years, 1948-82
2 “Mild” Recessions in 19 years,1983-2001
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Housing: The Most Cyclical SectorReal GDP versus Real Housing
0095908580757065605550
60
40
20
0
-20
-40
Percent Change, Year Ago
Real HousingReal GDP ex Housing
32
0095908580757065605550
30
20
10
0
-10
-20
Percent Change, Year Ago
A Long Capital Spending BoomReal Non-Residential Fixed Investment
33
Consumers Kept SpendingReal Personal Consumption Expenditures
00959085807570
10
8
6
4
2
0
-2
-4
Percent Change, Year Ago
34
009590858075706560
2.20
2.00
1.80
1.60
1.40
1.20
Ratio
On a New, Lower TrackManufacturing: Inventory to Sales Ratio
1958-90 Average = 1.71
35
020098969492908886
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8
6
4
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Percent
Fed Funds RateCore CPI % Year
Fed Thinking About TighteningFed Funds and Core CPI % Year
1.75 on 12-11-01Next FOMC Meeting 5-7-02
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828078767472706866
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Index
995 on 2-9-66985 on 11-29-68
1052 on 1-11-731015 on 9-21-76
1024 on 4-27-81
631 on 5-26-70
577 on 12-6-74
784 on 8-6-82744 on 10-7-66747 on 3-3-78
Hard to Break 1,000Dow Jones Industrial Average
37
00989694929088868482
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Index
Bull Market Becomes Total ManiaDow Jones Industrial Average
10006 on 3-29-99
7539 on 8-31-98
9337 on 7-17-98
1738 on 10-19-87
2722 on 8-25-87
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38
20022001200019991998
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Index
11727 on 1-14-0011337 on 5-21-01
8235 on 9-21-01
10006 on 3-29-99
Hard to Break 10,000Dow Jones Industrial Average
39
20022001200019991998
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Percent Change, Year Ago
TechNon-Tech
Market SegmentationMarket Cap, Wilshire 5000
40
009590858075706560555045
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Percent Change, Year Ago
Unprecedented Earnings DeclineS&P 500 Reported EPS, 4Q Sum
41
2001200019991998
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14
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$ Earnings Per Share
Reported EarningsOperating Earnings
Which Earnings Number To Believe?S&P 500 Reported versus Operating Earnings
42
00959085807570656055
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P/E Ratio
A Rich MarketPrice /(As Reported) EPS, 4Q Sum, S&P 500
43
01009998979695949392919089
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P/E Ratio
Using Reported EarningsUsing Operating Earnings
Which P/E Right For You?Reported or Operating EPS, S&P 500
4-Quarter Trailing Sum
Difference: 26 vs. 22
Difference:34 vs. 29
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00959085807570656055
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Percent
Dividends Back In Fashion?S&P 500 Dividend Yield
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It Was All EnthusiasmThe Nasdaq Run-Up
Average Or Year End
Earnings Per Share P/E
Ending Price
86-90 $16.66 23 37791-95 20.28 39 768
1996 25.99 50 13001997 25.46 64 16311998 18.97 105 20041999 17.92 187 33542000 21.38 131 2797
2001 <0 N/A 1950
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ICGE? Or This Portfolio? Market Cap, December 1999, $44 Billion
21st Century Ins. LubrizolBoise Cascade Mandalay Resort Boston Properties Neuberger BermanBriggs & Stratton Potomac Electric PowerCallaway Golf SaksChurch & Dwight Six FlagsCummins Inc Stanley WorksHealthsouth Titan CorpHost Marriott Corp Tommy HilfigerInterstate Bakeries Tootsie RollKB Home Wendy'sLands End Williams-Sonoma
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Are Japan’s Best Days Past?Real GDP Growth
009590858075706560
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10
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-5
Percent Change
1957-73=9.4%
1974-91=3.8%
1992-01=0.7%
E
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00989694929088868482
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US$ Billions
Net Foreign Direct Investment In ChinaNet Foreign Direct Investment In Japan
Foreign Direct Investors ChooseFDI Flows, China and Japan
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Are China’s Best Days Ahead?Real GDP Growth
009590858075
20
15
10
5
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Percent Change, Year Ago
E
50
20001999199819971996199519941993199219911990
10
5
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-5
-10
Percent Change, Year Ago
Southeast Asia GDP Growth RateWtd. Avg. of Thailand, Malaysia, Philippines, Indonesia
51
20022001200019991998199719961995199419931992
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
Percent
France and Germany (Avg.)United Kingdom
U.K. Teaches a LessonUnemployment: U.K., France & Germany
52
0100999897969594939291
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
-2
-4
Percent Change, Year Ago
Ireland Portugal
Ireland Or Portugal?Real GDP Growth
E
53
20502040203020202010200019901980197019601950
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Percent
0-14 years old65 years and older
Dependents-Developing WorldYoung and Old as % of Working Age Population
0 -14 = 51%65+ = 8%
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20502040203020202010200019901980197019601950
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Percent
0-14 years old65 years and older
Dependents-Developed WorldYoung and Old as % of Working Age Population
0 - 14 = 27%65+ = 22%
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Two Worlds; Separate and Unequal
Young OldBrazil AustraliaChina CanadaEgypt FranceIndia GermanyIndonesia ItalyMexico JapanPakistan SpainPhilippines U.K.Turkey U.S.
Total Pop. (Millions)
Growth Rate (%)
%, Ages 0-14
%, Ages 65+
9 "Young" 3131 1.5 30 69 "Old" 753 0.5 18 15
Median Income: PPP$ 3,617
Median Income: PPP$ 23,752
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