the mystery of unaccounted for gas
DESCRIPTION
…. The Mystery of Unaccounted for Gas Presented by Dr. Faizullah Abbasi, MD, SSGC. THE MYSTERY OF UNACCOUNTED FOR GAS. Dr. Faizullah Abbasi MD SSGC. Pakistan Energy Conference April 12, 2011-Islamabad. 11 APRIL 2011. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
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THE MYSTERY OF UNACCOUNTED FOR GAS
…. The Mystery of Unaccounted
for Gas
Presented by Dr. Faizullah Abbasi, MD, SSGC
Pakistan Energy Conference April 12, 2011-Islamabad
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Wouldyou hire this man as your
detective if it is the
…
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Sui Southern Gas Company Limited 3
Quetta
Sibi
Pirkoh
Loti
Sui
JacobabadShikarpur
Larkana
DaduZamzama
Sari Hyderabad
Nawabshah
SawanKadanwari
Miano
Badin
Karachi
Bhit
Hasan
Sukkur
FJFC
Pesh Bogi
Mazarani
Zarghun
Sindh
Balochistan
SSGC INFRASTRUCTURESSGC
INFRASTRUCTURE
Transmission Network (Km) 3,320
Distribution Network (Km) 36,785
SNGPL transmission line
Customers
Industrial 3,863
Commercial 24,156
Domestic 2,219,138
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POD
POD
POD
POD
SMS
SMS
SMS
TBS
TBS
TBS IndustrialCMSs
DomesticMeters
Commercial Meters
Distribution Supply MainsTransmission pipelines Distribution Network
CUSTOMERS
4
GAS FLOW CHART
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Inspector Clouseau will not solve the
mystery of UFG till he gets into the
heart of the matter.
Will the Case get complex and intricate? Let’s find out….
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TOTAL GAS SALE
UFG
TOTAL GAS PURCHASE
7
WHAT IS UNACCOUNTED FOR GAS OR UFG?
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INDUSTRIAL SALE
(3,863 Customers)
COMMERCIAL SALE
(24,156 Customers)
DOMESTIC SALE
(2,219,138 Customers)
UFG
+
+
GAS PURCHASEDFROM 16 GAS
FIELDS
8
HOW IS UFG CALCULATED?
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DISTRIBUTION SYSTEM45 MMCF
UFG5 MMCF i.e. 5%
GAS PURCHASE100 MMCF
9
BULK/POWER50 MMCF
UFG – THE ARITHMETIC TRICK - 1
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DISTRIBUTION SYSTEM45 MMCF
UFG5 MMCF i.e. 10%
GAS PURCHASE50 MMCF
10
BULK/POWER0 MMCF
UFG – THE ARITHMETIC TRICK - 2
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SSGC - YEAR WISE % BULK SALE TREND
11
%AGE
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UFG IN GAS SALES MIX - POWER
12
(26.15%)
(13.19%)
(5.5%)
(18.30%)
(16.82%)
(2.31%)
(7.95%)
(9.6 %)
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BULK POWER 129,812
BULK OTHER 42,405
DOMESTI C 73,844
CNG24,473
CAPTI VE POWER 57,915
COMMERCI AL10,178
G.I NDUSTRI ES80,351
UFG20,000
15BCF Gas May Produce
UFG IN GAS SALES MIX – BULK POWER
13
(29.57%)
(13.19%)
(5.5%)
(18.30%)
(16.82%)
(2.31%)
(4.5%)
(9.6 %)
1,250,000 MW Power
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A Quick Math Calculation
SSGC: Annual UFG = 35,010 MMCF (7.95%)
SSGC: Per day UFG = 96 MMCFD
Avg. Cost/MMCF = Rs 221,690
Financial Cost of Lost Gas (UFG)
35,010 (MMCF) x Rs 221,690 (Gas price) = Rs 7,761 million (All figures for FY-2009-10)
FIRST CLUE: FINANCIAL IMPACT OF UFG
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Reduced Gas Availability
for Power Sector.
Penalty by Regulator
(Rs. 934 Million in 2009-10)
Environmental Pollution
Equivalent to 9.135 million
Tonnes of CO2. (13% of the
total emissions of Pakistan).15
CONSEQUENCES OF HIGH UFG – PLOT THICKENS
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GENERAL PERCEPTION ABOUT UFG
ALL UFG IS THEFT
ALL THEFT IS UFG
BUT ALL UFG IS NOT THEFT !
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Efforts focused on controlling gas theft.
Established theft control department.
Installed Cyber locks & EVCs.
Dedicated lines for bulk & CNG customers.
Theft by non-customers.
ONGOING EFFORTS TO CONTROL GAS THEFT
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These ongoing exercises have uncovered some theft cases .…
Yet the UFG has increased!
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18,871
19,28320,822
24,264
27,390
25,584
29,082
27,093
33,501
35,010
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10
UFG VOLUME (MMCF)
UFG IN SSGC – THE LAST TEN YEARS
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UFG
TRACKING DOWN SUSPECTS: UFG CLASSIFICATION
NON TECHNICAL(THEFT)
COMPLEX/UNCONTROLLABLE
TECHNICAL(OTHER FACTORS)
CONTROLLABLE
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30th September 1988 Hyderabad Incident
Normal daily gas purchase of Hyderabad = 30 MMCFD.
Normal daily sale of Industrial & Commercial Customers
= 8 MMCFD.
During curfew all industrial & commercial units were closed.
Logically, Purchase should have been 30-8=22 MMCFD.
IT DID NOT HAPPEN
But actual Purchase on following days was 29
MMCFD-------------------------------------------------WHY?
INCIDENTS LEADING TOWARDS OTHER CAUSES OF UFG
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To dig deeper, Inspector Clouseau
heads off to Hazara Colony,Hyderabad….
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CHARACTERISTICS OF HAZARA COLONY
MANAGEABLE AREA
TOTAL LENGTH OF THE LOOP = 3 Kms.
TOTAL NUMBER OF CUSTOMERS = 298.
HAZARACOLONY
LINE DIAGRAM OF THE AREA OF STUDY
PRS
HALI ROAD
ZEAL PAK TM KHAN
ROADFatahChowk
TBS Site50 Psig
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PRESSURE REGULATING STATION (PRS) AND THE BULK METER FEEDING HAZARA COLONY HYDERABAD
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UFG AT DIFFERENT PRESSURES
UFG AT4-5 psig
Purchase/Day 42.17 MCF
Sale/Day 20.38 MCF
UFG/Day21.79 MCF (51.67%)
UFG AT 10-11 psig
56.5 MCF
20.38 MCF
36.12 MCF (63.93%)
UFG AT 21-23 psig
223.2 MCF
20.38 MCF
202.82 MCF (90.87%)
HAZARA COLONY HYDERABAD
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IMPACT OF OVERHEAD LEAKAGE IMPACT OF OVERHEAD LEAKAGE RECTIFICATIONRECTIFICATION
AT 4-5 psig
Before OH rectification
After OHRectification
Purchase/Day
42.17 Mcf 40.72 Mcf
Sales/Day
20.38 Mcf 20.38 Mcf
UFG/Day
21.79 Mcf 20.34 Mcf
UFG % 51.67% 49.95%
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AT 4-5 psig
Before installation
of new meters
After installation
of new meters
Purchase/Day
40.72 Mcf 39.19 Mcf
Sale/Day 20.38 Mcf 27.65 Mcf
UFG/Day 20.34 Mcf 11.54 Mcf
UFG% 49.95% 29.45%
IMPACT OF METER CHANGEIMPACT OF METER CHANGE
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FACTOR-WISE UFG VOLUMEMCF PER
DAY% OF UFG
OVER HEAD LEAKAGES 1.45 6.66
PUG METERS 1.37 6.29
METERS SLOW DUE TO DUST 0.43 1.97
METERS SLOW DUE TO OPERATIONAL EFFECT
2.51 11.52
BILLING DIFFERENCES 0.14 0.64
THEFT (METERS TAMPERED) 4.35 19.96
LEAKAGES 11.54 52.96
TOTAL
21.79 100.0
PURCHASE VOLUME 42.17 MCF/DAYSALE VOLUME 20.38 MCF/DAYTOTAL UFG VOLUME 21.79 MCF/DAY
UFG CONTRIBUTING FACTORSAT 4-5 psig
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Rehabilitation alongwith
Augmentation & Pressure Profiling
Introduction of Pressure
Profiling
INTERIOR SINDHUFG STATUS (1982-83 to 2009-10)
29
Increasing Trend Despite Pressure
ProfilingWithout
Augmentation
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Introduction of Pressure
ProfilingWithout Pressure Profiling
KARACHIUFG STATUS (1989-90 to 2009-10)
30
Introduction of CNG Stations
Without Augmentation and desired
Rehabilitation
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LESSONS FROM NATIONAL GRID, UK & LONE STAR GAS,
USA
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Distribution system operates in inches of water column.
Estimated Losses due to Leakages 6.3 Bcf / Annum.
Introduced Pressure Profiling in 1990.
Installed 3,500 automatic pressure profiling systems.
Additional 2,000 are in process. *Presented by Mr. Jonathan Dennett & Steven Vallender in 2009 IGU Conference Argentina in 2009
CLUE 2 – LONE STAR COMPANY, USA
LO
* Reducing the pressure from 10 psig to 5 psig lowers the gas leakage by 29.3%.
*Presented by Mr. Darryl Gallagher
CLUE 1 – NATIONAL GRID, UK
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PRESSURE
PROFILINGSYSTEM
AUGUMENTATION
SHORT TERM MAGIC TOOLS TO REDUCE UFG
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Rate of gas leakage is reduced by reducing operating
pressure.
Pressures are reduced during off-peak Period (Night) and normalized during day (Cooking Load Period).
PRESSURE PROFILING
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PIPELINE AUGMENTATION
35
Augmentation involves lowering operating pressures and increasing network capacity.
Distribution Network becomes undersized with increase in load with time.
Network Pressures are kept high to ensure gas availability to Customers.
Undersize Network is rectified by replacement of small dia pipelines with large dia pipelines or by laying additional lines of large dia.
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Underground leaks (Ageing of
Distribution Network) &
Overhead leaks.
Reduction in uninfected sales (Bulk) and increase in infected sales (Retail)
Measurement and Billing Errors
Third Party Damages.
Pipeline ruptures due to blast / sabotage.
COMPLICATING THE CASE – COMPLICATING THE CASE – OTHER FACTORS BEHIND UFG OTHER FACTORS BEHIND UFG
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MONITORING UFG MONITORING UFG
Segmentation of Distribution Network in Small Zones.
Analysis of Gas Sale, Purchase and UFG.
GETTING INTO THE HEART OF THE GETTING INTO THE HEART OF THE CASECASE
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NOVEL TECHNIQUES TO MONITOR UFG
38
Let’s check the trends through
DIFFERENTIAL ANALYSIS
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Differential Analysis (Decrease in UFG)
MMCF
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Differential Analysis (Increase in UFG)
MMCF
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UFG MONITORING TOOL(DIFFERENTIAL ANALYSIS) MMCF
41
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Region wise UFG Differential Analysis of Interior SindhJul-Sep 2010 (1st Qtr) V/s Jul-Sep 2009 (1st Qtr)
MMCF
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Pipeline Rehabilitation
Improve Measurement Accuracy
LONG TERM MEASURES TO LONG TERM MEASURES TO CONTROL UFGCONTROL UFG
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UFG REDUCTION: WORLD BANK FUNDING – 2011-UFG REDUCTION: WORLD BANK FUNDING – 2011-15 15
COMPONENT WISE PHYSICAL TARGETCOMPONENT WISE PHYSICAL TARGETItems Unit TotalREHABILITATION OF DISTRIBUTION SYSTEM Km 5750
AUTOMATIC PRESSURE MANAGEMENT Nos. 400
UNDERGROUND LEAK SURVEY AND RECTIFICATION Km 18700
OVERHEAD LEAKAGE SURVEY AND RECTIFICATION
No. of customer connections
2,770,300
AUGMENTATION Km 713METERS Nos. 13,062
METER TESTING EQUIPMENT Nos. 24
SURVEILLANCE AND DATA MONITORING EQUIPMENT Nos. 2500
PIPE RECOATING Km 450
CP EQUIPMENT Nos. 5902
SEGMENTATION & PRESSURE MANAGEMENT EQUIPMENT Nos. 400
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45
UFG – THROUGH THE LENS UFG – THROUGH THE LENS
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The Mystery of UFG has been SOLVED to a great extent. Yet this trail to clamp down on UFG cases
have uncovered COMPLEX issues such as the nagging incidence of gas theft that needs further
identification…
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COMING SOON
Clouseau’s next case: TacklingGas theft
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QUESTION TIME
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FACTOR-WISE UFG VOLUMEMCF PER
DAY% OF UFG
OVER HEAD LEAKAGES 1.45 6.66
PUG METERS 1.37 6.29
METERS SLOW DUE TO DUST 0.43 1.97
METERS SLOW DUE TO OPERATIONAL EFFECT
2.51 11.52
BILLING DIFFERENCES 0.14 0.64
THEFT (METERS TAMPERED) 4.35 19.96
LEAKAGES 11.54 52.96
TOTAL 21.79 100.0
UFG CONTRIBUTING FACTORS
AT 4-5 psig
MCF PERDAY
% OF UFG
1.45 4.01
1.37 3.80
0.43 1.19
2.51 6.95
0.14 0.39
4.35 12.04
25.87 71.62
36.12 100.0
Purchase Volume
Sale Volume
Total UFG Volume
42.17 MCF/DAY
20.38 MCF/DAY
21.79 MCF/DAY
AT 10-11 psig AT 21-23 psig
56.50 MCF/DAY
20.38 MCF/DAY
36.12 MCF/DAY
223.2 MCF/DAY
20.38 MCF/DAY
202.82 MCF/DAY
MCF PERDAY
% OF UFG
1.45 0.71
1.37 0.68
0.43 0.21
2.51 1.24
0.14 0.07
4.35 2.14
192.57 94.95
202.82 100.0
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UFG MONITORING TOOL(DIFFERENTIAL ANALYSIS)
50
Zone Wise Hyderabad Region (July-February)