the monthly charts are negative, but stocks remain cheap

8/4/2019 The monthly charts are negative, but stocks remain cheap.

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Richard Suttmeier is the Chief Market Strategist at www.ValuEngine.com.ValuEngine is a fundamentally-based quant research firm in Newtown, PA. ValuEnginecovers over 7,000 stocks every day.

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Oct ober 3 , 2011 The mont h ly char t s are negat ive , but s t ocks remain cheap.

What do you do when the monthly charts turn negative, but ValuEngine shows that 90.8% of al

stocks are undervalued? In terms of the Dow Industrial Average you play the trading rangebetween the 120-month simple moving average at 10,593, which held in both August andSeptember and my annual pivot at 11,491, which was a magnet in both August and September.The yield on the 10-Year US Treasury should trade between this months value level at 2.222and my annual risky level at 1.672, which was tested in September. Gold should continue totrade around my semiannual pivot at $1644.8 with semiannual value level at $1469.9 and thisquarters risky level at $1738.4 with monthly risky level at $1811.4. For oil I do not show a valuelevel with a negative monthly chart and the 120-month SMA at $61.85. The euro should weakeninto year end to my new quarterly value level at 1.2598.

10-Year Note (1.905) Monthly, semiannual, quarterly and annual value levels are 2.222, 2.414,2.669 and 2.690 with daily, semiannual and weekly risky levels at 1.857, 1.672 and 1.465. My

semiannual risky level at 1.672 was tested on September 23rd.

Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters


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Comex Gold ($1623.0) Daily, semiannual and annual value levels are $1508.9, $1469.9 and$1,356.5 with my semiannual pivot at $1644.8, and quarterly, monthly, and weekly risky levels at

$1738.4, $1811.4 and $1866.8, and the September all time high at $1923.7. The monthly chartcontinues to show the parabolic bubble.


Nymex Crude Oil ($78.72) My daily value level is $75.60 with a weekly pivot at $80.30 with monthly

quarterly and annual risky levels at $98.51, $100.34, $99.91 and $101.92. The monthly chart isnegative with the 120-month simple moving average at $61.85 and 200-week at $83.63.



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The Euro (1.3388) My quarterly value level is 1.2598 with daily and weekly pivots at 1.3349 and1.3511, and monthly and semiannual risky levels at 1.4579, 1.4752 and 1.4872. The monthly chart is

negative with the 120-month simple moving average at 1.2698 with the 200-week at 1.4003.


Monthly Dow - (10,913) Weekly and daily value levels are 10,713 and 10,559 with the 200-week and120-month simple moving averages at 10,664 and 10,593, the 50-day at 11,393, my annual pivot at11,491, and monthly and quarterly risky levels at 12,091 and 12,507. Semiannual value levels are9,635 and 8,468.



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S&P 500 (1131.4) Weekly, daily, and semiannual value levels are 1116.9, 1096.9, 981.3 and 855.7with annual, monthly, quarterly and annual risky levels at 1210.7, 1259.8, 1303.7 and 1562.9.

NASDAQ (2415) Daily, annual, and semiannual value levels are 2375, 2335, 2199 and 2049 withmonthly, quarterly and annual risky levels at 2680, 2807 and 3243.

NASDAQ 100 (NDX) (2139) Daily, semiannual and annual value levels are 2112, 1951, 1861 and1723 with a weekly pivot at 2140, and monthly, quarterly and annual risky levels at 2312, 2440 and2590.

Dow Transports (4189) Weekly, daily and semiannual value levels are 4058, 3995, and 3868 withmy semiannual pivot at 4335, and monthly, annual and quarterly risky levels at 4980, 5179 and 5359.

Russell 2000 (644.15) Weekly, daily, and semiannual value levels are 630.55, 623.24, 577.47 and530.04 with monthly, annual and quarterly risky levels at 778.77, 784.16 and 802.96.

The SOX (338.82) Daily, annual and semiannual value levels at 335.56, 270.98, 258.97 and 204.67with weekly, monthly and quarterly risky levels at 346.91, 363.01 and 417.63.

Equity Fundamentals Stocks are extremely undervalued. 90.8% of all stocks are undervalued / 9.2% of all stocks are overvalued. In March 2009 we saw

91.1% of all stocks undervalued. On September 23rd we showed 91.8% undervalued. All sixteen sectors are undervalued by double-digit percentages, fifteen by 22.3% to 35.4%.

Back in March 2009 the sectors were undervalued by 33% to 45%. Check out and subscribeto www.ValuEngine.com.

VE Morning Briefing If you want expanded analysis of the US Capital Markets including a Fearless

Prediction of the Week and a Stock of the Day go to this link and sign up:http://www.valuengine.com/nl/mainnl?nl=D

ValuTrader Model Portfolio If you want to learn how to Buy and Trade use this link and sign up:http://www.valuengine.com/nl/mainnl?nl=V

ETF Weekly If you want my Value Levels and Risky Levels for 30 Electronically Traded Funds usethis link and sign up: http://www.valuengine.com/nl/mainnl?nl=U

ValuEngine FDIC Evaluation Report In this report I slice and dice the FDIC Quarterly BankingProfile. We publish a ValuEngine List of Problem Banks in this publication:http://www.valuengine.com/nl/mainnl?nl=C

Definition of MOJO This is my term for technical momentum. I use whats called 12x3x3 slowstochastic readings from daily, weekly and monthly charts. The scale is zero to 10.0 where above 8.0is overbought and below 2.0 is oversold.

Buy and Trade Strategies for Long Positions Value Level The price at which you establish an additional long position on share price

weakness. This is done on a GTC Limit Order to buy weakness to the Value Level. Risky Level The price at which you remove a single long position or reduce a multiple


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long position on share price strength. This is done on a GTC Limit Order to sell strength tothe Risky Level.

Buy and Trade Strategies for Short Positions Value Level The price at which you remove a single short position or reduce a multiple

short position on share price weakness. This is done on a GTC Limit Order to buy weaknesto the Value Level.

Risky Level The price at which you establish an addition short position on share pricestrength. This is done on a GTC Limit Order to sell strength to the Risky Level.

Richard SuttmeierChief Market StrategistValuEngine.com(800) 381-5576

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As Chief Market Strategist at ValuEngine Inc, my research is published regularly on the website www.ValuEngine.com. I have daily, weekly, monthly, andquarterly newsletters available that track a variety of equity and other data parameters as well as my most up-to-date analysis of world markets. Mynewest products include a weekly ETF newsletter as well as the ValuTrader Model Portfolio newsletter. You can go tohttp://www.valuengine.com/nl/mainnl to review sample issues and find out more about my research.

I Hold No Positions in the Stocks I Cover.

the monthly charts are negative, but stocks remain cheap

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