The Mitigation of Air Pollution and Greenhouse Gases (MAG) Program

Fabian Wagner 7 June 2013

Motivation: Air pollutants and GHGs cause serious problems:

for health, ecosystems, economy

Sources of air pollutants and GHGs are diverse: Emissions stem from all economic sectors

Atmospheric transport: linking emissions and impacts Pollutants have short residence time in the atmosphere GHGs are well mixed, aerosols are not

Mitigation/Emission control technologies

Costs

Policies

Challenge for policy makers: To identify strategies at the local, regional, and global levels that protect the atmosphere while imposing the least burden on economic development

Objective of MAG research activities To provide scientific tools for short- to long-term policy development by decision makers in the developed and developing worlds.

Methodology Assessing air quality: The GAINS model

• Multi-pollutant, multi-effect integrated assessment model • Accessible online: gains.iiasa.ac.at

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activities

Emission factors

emissions

Dispersion, atmospheric chemistry

Control technologies

concentrations

impacts

Mitigation strategies

Cost optimization

Impact indicators

Greenhouse gas – Air pollution INteractions and Synergies

Linking Air pollution control || GHG mitigation: Co-benefits

Air pollution GHGs

Local/short-term Global/long-term

The traditional view on air pollution and greenhouse gases

Linking Air pollution control || GHG mitigation: Co-benefits

Air pollution

GHG

Local/short-term Global/long-term

PROBLEM

Local/short-term

SOLUTION

Global/long-term

Policy applications of GAINS

GAINS has been the key scientific tool in • developing international

environmental agreements, e.g.

• UN-ECE LRTAP • Emissions ceilings

directive • International assessments

• UNEP • IPCC • AMAP

GAINS is a IIASA showcase product

MAG-YSSP 2013 Pollutants Region Sector Kandice Harper

short-lived climate forcers

China all

Ville-Veikko Paunu

NOx, particles, VOC, etc

Global Agriculture (field burning)

Sasha Yin

Ammonia (NH3)

Pearl-River Delta (China)

Agriculture

Bo Zheng

SO2, NOx, particles, VOC

China Road Transport

Nicholas Lam (with ENE)

black carbon, particles, VOC, etc

Developing countries: South-East Asia Sub-saharan Africa

Households

Regional assessment of short-lived climate forcer (SLCF) mitigation

measures

Kandice Harper Yale School of Forestry & Environmental Studies

MAG Program Supervisors

Chris Heyes Fabian Wagner

Gregor Kiesewetter

Atmospheric Chemistry Environmental Policy

Climate Science

Photo: Yale Environment 360

Existing baseline emission scenario

Updated baseline emission scenario

GAINS database

China’s 12th 5-year plan

(1) Update baseline emission scenario for China

(2) Assess regional importance of UNEP-identified SLCF mitigation measures in China

+

Emission scenario incorporating most-promising emission reduction measures for

China

Emission projections from steps (1) & (2) +

NASA’s global climate model (GISS ModelE2)

Regional climate response

(temperature, precipitation)

Validation of GAINS

climate indicators

(3) Determine regional climate response associated with SLCF mitigation measures in China

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Spatial Modelling of Global Agricultural Field Burning Emissions

Ville-Veikko Paunu YSSP Introduction

7.6.2013

● Master of science (Tech.), Aalto University, major energy sciences

● 1st year PhD student in geoinformatics, Aalto University ● Working in Finnish Environment Institute (SYKE)

○ Air pollution modelling ○ Specialized in residential wood combustion and spatial

modelling

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About Me

● Agricultural field burning emissions ● Done to clear excess residue, control pests and produce

ash fertilization ● Significant source of aerosols and trace gases to the

atmosphere ● Banned in several countries

○ However, it is still practised

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YSSP Work

● Aim: global AWB emission model ● Both emission calculation and spatial allocation are

developed ● Resolution: one month, 0.5° x 0.5° ● Combine various data

○ Crop data (type, amount, location, emission factor, time of cropping)

○ Fire activity data ○ Land use data

● Possibly include future changes in the land use etc.

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YSSP Work

GAINS BC emissions in 2005 for AWB

Modeling ammonia emission control potentials and costs in the Pearl River Delta (PRD) region, China, using an

integrated approach

IIASA-YSSP, Mitigation of Air Pollution and Greenhouse Gases Program (MAG) NSFC-National Natural Science Foundation of China

Shasha Yin IIASA-YSSP, Vienna

June 7, 2013

Introduction of Myself

Name: Shasha Yin Birth: Henan Province, China From: South China University of Technology, Guangzhou PhD. Student, Second year Program: Mitigation of Air Pollution and Greenhouse Gases-MAG Supervisor: Wilfried Winiwarter & Zbigniew Klimont Research Field: Regional air pollutant emission inventory Temporal and spatial characteristic Emission control potentials

Introduction of Myself Page: 2

PhD Work in China

- Develop multi-pollutant emissions - Identify the temporal and spatial emission characteristic - ……

- Collect historical activity data - Project emission inventory -Understand emission trend - ……

- Propose future emission scenarios - Assess the emission control potentials - ……

- Modeling future regional air quality - Assess impacts of different emission changes - ……

PhD Work in China Page: 3

Haze and health cost

Focus on regional atmospheric haze(PM2.5) pollution

Research of PhD. Thesis--Basic framework and targets

1. Emission 2. Projection

3. Control Scenario

4. Air Quality

Plans in IIASA-YSSP (Motivations) Title: Modeling ammonia emission control potentials and costs in the

Pearl River Delta (PRD) region, China, using an integrated approach

Plans in IIASA-YSSP -1 Page: 4

The PRD region Regional aerosol pollution- PM

Strict measures on reducing SO2 and NOX

Ammonia? • Alkaline gas • React with SO2, NOx • Precursor compound of PM2.5 Few studies on ammonia!

Plans in IIASA-YSSP (Objectives)

Plans in IIASA-YSSP -2 Page: 5

Livestock N Fertilizer Application Agricultural source Non-agricultural source

Improving and updating PRD regional

high-resolution NH3 emission inventory

Identifying NH3 control measures and

potentials with a focus on agriculture sources

Assessing emission control costs of proposed abatement measures

2. Specific tasks – Gains Model:

1. Ammonia emission sources:

Projection of Chinese Vehicle Growth, Energy Demand and Emissions Through 2030

Bo Zheng MAG program

06.07.2013

Jan, 2013, North China Plain PM2.5 up to 300 μg m-3

China daily standard is 75 µg/m3 China yearly standard is 40 µg/m3

Annual average, 2012 NO2 over 40 μg m-3 in many cities

Severe air pollution in China

• How much does road vehicle affect air quality, for now and future?

• What’s the effect from mitigation measures on vehicle emission reduction?

Onroad transport is a major source in urban area

• Share of onroad vehicle emissions:

20% NOx, 16% VOC and 14% CO (1990 - 2010).

From MEIC database developed by Tsinghua Univ.

Higher share in urban area, declining slightly Third driving force for NOx emission

Future emission trend in previous work: national level

• Based on national average parameters.

• Helpful for analysis and management at national level but

not for regional level.

NOx emission trend by Zhang et al, 2013 NOx emission trend in GAINS model

My proposed work: projection at finer resolution

• CO2, fuel demand and air pollutants

• Region division based on energy mixture structure

• Benefit policy makers to adjust measures to local conditions

From MEIC database

Six interprovincial power grids in 2008

Huo et al., 2010

Emission factors and vehicle growth rate at national average