the marketpulse volume 7, issue 6 june 2018 · 2018-06-19 · overview of loan performance ......
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| The MarketPulse g June 2018 g Volume 7, Issue 6
The MarketPulse
JUNE 2018
© 2018 CoreLogic — Proprietary. This material may not be reproduced in any form without express written permission.ii
Table of Contents | The MarketPulse g June 2018 g Volume 7, Issue 6
Table of Contents
U.S. Economic Outlook: June 2018 ...............................................................1
Are Home Prices Overvalued?
Highest-Cost Areas for Homeownership Are Concentrated on The Coasts ..................................................................................................2An Analysis of Property Taxes and Mortgage Interest
Underwriting Loosening for Conventional Conforming Loans ...................4
Mortgage Credit Risk Trends for First Quarter 2018 Finds Higher DTIs
California Posts Modest Annual Home Sales Gain in April as Median Price Nears (Nominal) Peak ............................................................6New-Home Sales Have Trended Higher But Remain Well Below Average
In the News .................................................................................................................................... 7
10 Largest CBSA — Loan Performance Insights Report March 2018 ....................................... 9
Home Price Index State-Level Detail — Combined Single Family Including Distressed April 2018 ........................................................................................................................................ 9
Home Price Index ........................................................................................................................ 10
Overview of Loan Performance ................................................................................................ 10
CoreLogic HPI® Market Condition Overview ........................................................................... 11April 2018April 2023 Forecast
National Home Equity Distribution ............................................................................................. 12
Map of Average Year-Over-Year Equity Gain per Borrower ................................................. 12
Variable Descriptions .................................................................................................................. 13
Housing Statistics
April 2018
HPI® YOY Chg 6.9%
HPI YOY Chg XD 6.5%
NegEq Share (Q1 2018) 6.1%
The MarketPulseVolume 7, Issue 6June 2018Data as of April 2018 (unless otherwise stated)
News Media Contact
Alyson [email protected] 949.214.1414 (office)
© 2018 CoreLogic — Proprietary. This material may not be reproduced in any form without express written permission. 1
The MarketPulse g June 2018 g Volume 7, Issue 6 | Articles
U.S. Economic Outlook: June 2018Are Home Prices Overvalued?
By Frank E. Nothaft
Home prices have risen in nearly all parts of the nation over the last few years. While price gains vary considerably across urban markets, some places have had especially rapid appreciation that put values above their pre-Great Recession peak, even after controlling for inflation. With prices setting new records, it’s natural to wonder whether the housing market is on the verge of another valuation bubble.
The CoreLogic Market Conditions Indicator provides a gauge to identify urban areas that may be overheating. The Indicator is based on straightforward intuition: home prices should generally rise in line with income growth of local residents. If prices grow too fast, then homes are less affordable and price growth should slow while incomes catch up.
We found that 32 percent of MSAs in the U.S. were potentially ‘overvalued’ by our metric in March. (Figure 1) The last time that one-third of metro areas were overvalued in a rising price environment was Spring 2003. While many metros were frothy 15 years ago, the valuation bubble was still localized and not national; however, rapid price growth during the following three years led to 67 percent of markets overvalued by 2006. Thus, while we do not have a national valuation bubble today, continued rapid price growth raises the specter of a new bubble forming within the next few years.
When viewed by location, most of today’s frothy metros are along the seacoast or in the western mountain states. (Figure 2) To illustrate, the CoreLogic Home Price Index for the Denver metro area was about 30 percent above the pre-Great Recession peak, even after netting out inflation. In contrast, real per capita income in Denver has grown by less than that pace since 2006.
The CoreLogic Market Conditions Indicator is an early warning signal for bubbly markets. It should be used in concert with other metrics, such as a comparison of prices with local rents, to determine if values have become untethered to market fundamentals. And while it shows that the U.S. is not in a valuation bubble yet, there are many urban areas where prices appear to have become delinked to their long-term relationship with income. ■
Dr. Frank NothaftExecutive, Chief Economist, Office of the Chief Economist
Frank Nothaft holds the title executive, chief economist for CoreLogic. He leads the Office of the Chief Economist and is responsible for analysis, commentary and forecasting trends in global real estate, insurance and mortgage markets.
FIGURE 1. MORE OVERVALUED METROS SINCE 2012Percent of MSAs Overvalued
Tax ImplementedAugust 2016
nothaft: fig 1Peak 18.4%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 2018
November 200667%
Of Metros Overvalued
March 201832%
Of Metros Overvalued
April 200332%
Of Metros Overvalued
Source: CoreLogic Home Price Index and Market Conditions Indicator through March 2018 for MSAs
FIGURE 2: MOST OVERVALUED METROS NEAR SEACOASTS OR ROCKY MOUNTAINSMarket Conditions Indicator (MCI)
Source: CoreLogic Home Price Index and Market Conditions Indicator through March 2018 for MSAs
Legend
Undervalued
Normal
Overvalued
© 2018 CoreLogic — Proprietary. This material may not be reproduced in any form without express written permission.2
Articles | The MarketPulse June 2018 Volume 7, Issue 6
Highest-Cost Areas for Homeownership Are Concentrated on The CoastsAn Analysis of Property Taxes and Mortgage Interest
By Arthur Jobe
The recently enacted Tax Cuts and Jobs Act has stirred a tremendous amount of interest lately, specifi cally regarding the impact on the cost of homeownership and potential impact on future home purchasing and selling decisions.
A new limitation on state and local tax deductions leaves many homeowners facing an increase in the after-tax cost of homeownership, and a decrease in the amount of deductible mortgage interest on new home-purchase mortgages may have others rethinking a decision to buy a home, particularly in cases where a homeowner desires to trade up. While it’s too early to gauge the full impact of the tax reform, by analyzing both property tax levies and recent mortgage originations around the country we can identify and highlight the highest-cost areas which are likely to be
affected the most. Once identifi ed, we will be able to compare the market activity in those areas with activity in non-high-cost areas to search for indicators of infl uence on housing market behavior.
Using CoreLogic data sourced from public records to determine the high-cost areas, we fi rst estimate the annual mortgage interest payment for each county assuming a 4-percent interest rate on the average home loan origination amount for 2017. Next, we identify the median annual property tax amount for each county. The mortgage interest and property tax amounts for each county are then summed, allowing us to rank the counties by the total cost. Using this methodology, we identifi ed the top-100 highest-cost counties and noted their location around the U.S. The maps illustrate the location of the highest-cost counties;
Continued on page 3
LOCATION OF TOP-100 COUNTIES AROUND THE U.S.
Source: CoreLogic
TABLE 1. BY STATE, COUNT OF COUNTIES IN THE TOP-100
StateCounties Existing
in the Top-100Share of Counties
in the Top-100
CA 22 32%
NJ 13 16%
NY 10 12%
MA 7 10%
CO 7 6%
VA 6 8%
TX 5 0%
MD 4 2%
HI 3 4%
WA 3 2%
OR 3 0%
PA 3 0%
IL 2 0%
RI 2 0%
CT 1 2%
DC 1 2%
UT 1 2%
WY 1 2%
AK 1 0%
FL 1 0%
ID 1 0%
NH 1 0%
TN 1 0%
VT 1 0%
Source: CoreLogic
Arthur JobeSenior Professional, Economist, Offi ce of the Chief Economist
Arthur holds the title of senior professional economist for CoreLogic in the Offi ce of the Chief Economist and is responsible for analyzing mortgage and real estate trends.
He began his tenure at CoreLogic with the Advisory Services team, working directly with clients and utilizing various CoreLogic data assets to design and deliver customized solutions. He also supported the CoreLogic Lien & Equity Analytics Radar (CLEAR) product as a developer.
Prior to joining CoreLogic, Arthur was an information analyst with Chase Home Mortgage and supported business leaders by providing research, analysis and report development.
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The MarketPulse g June 2018 g Volume 7, Issue 6 | Articles
Continued on page 3
A CLOSER LOOK – CALIFORNIA AND THE EAST COASTCalifornia High-Cost Counties High-Cost Counties Along the East Coast
Source: CoreLogic
Table 1 shows the count of counties by state in the top-100 and Table 2 lists the top-50 highest cost counties ordered by rank.
West Coast
An initial study of the top-100 ranked high-cost counties unsurprisingly shows a high concentration in California. In all, there were 22 counties from California that made the top 100, all situated on or near the coast, and 16 of those counties made the top 50. Four counties in California, all in the San Francisco Bay Area (San Mateo, San Francisco, Marin and Santa Clara), had an average 2017 loan origination amount over the new maximum of $750,000 and a median property tax amount exceeding $6,000.
Adding to the high-cost share for the west coast, Hawaii, Oregon and Washington each have three counties that fall in the list of top-100 highest-cost counties. Together with Alaska, the Pacific States region makes up nearly one-third of the list.
East Coast
On the opposite side of the country, New York and New Jersey combine to represent 23 of the top-100 counties and 28 percent of the top-50. The $924,000 average loan amount in New York, N.Y. in 2017 well exceeds the new origination limit for mortgage interest tax.
Other states along the Eastern Seaboard also have several counties that fall within the top-100 highest cost areas. Notably, Massachusetts (Vineyard Haven, Cambridge-Newton-Framingham, Boston areas) and Virginia (Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV) contribute a total of 13 counties, seven and six respectively. Half of the top-50 list is comprised of counties existing in states along the east coast.
Texas
Property tax amounts in Texas are the primary factor behind five of its counties showing on the list. Although none ranked inside the top-50 when considering both mortgage interest expense and property tax, four of the counties—Collin and Denton (Dallas-Plano-Irving CBSA), Travis (Austin-Round Rock CBSA), and Fort Bend (Houston area)—have median
property taxes exceeding $5,000. Ranking only by property tax amounts, each of those
four counties would be in the top half of the high-cost areas. ■
Highest-Cost Areas continued from page 2
TABLE 2. TOP-50 HIGHEST-COST COUNTIES AROUND THE U.S.
Rank by Sum of Intertest and Tax State County
1 MA Nantucket
2 NY New York
3 CA San Mateo
4 CA San Francisco
5 CO Pitkin
6 CA Marin
7 CA Santa Clara
8 MA Dukes
9 NY Kings
10 NY Westchester
11 CA Alameda
12 WY Teton
13 NY Nassau
14 CA Santa Cruz
15 CA Orange
16 NJ Bergen
17 NJ Essex
18 CO San Miguel
19 CA Contra Costa
20 VA Arlington
21 NY Rockland
22 CA Napa
23 CA Los Angeles
24 UT Summit
25 NJ Union
Rank by Sum of Intertest and Tax State County
26 NJ Morris
27 CT Fairfield
28 WA King
29 NY Suffolk
30 NJ Hudson
31 VA Fairfax
32 CA Ventura
33 NJ Somerset
34 CA Santa Barbara
35 DC District of Columbia
36 CA San Diego
37 VA Alexandria City
38 CO Eagle
39 MA Suffolk
40 CA San Benito
41 MA Middlesex
42 CA Sonoma
43 VA Loudoun
44 HI Maui
45 NJ Monmouth
46 CA Monterey
47 MA Norfolk
48 NJ Hunterdon
49 HI Kauai
50 MD Montgomery
Source: CoreLogic
© 2018 CoreLogic — Proprietary. This material may not be reproduced in any form without express written permission.4
Articles | The MarketPulse g June 2018 g Volume 7, Issue 6
Mortgage underwriting guidelines have loosened in the last couple of years. To expand the credit box to creditworthy borrowers, Fannie Mae began accepting mortgages with loan-to-value (LTV) ratios up to 97 percent in December 2014 and Freddie Mac in March 2015. To further expand access to credit, Fannie Mae raised
its DTI ratio level from 45 to 50 percent in July 2017. DTI and LTV ratios along with the credit scores are three important factors in mortgage underwriting. This blog focuses on only conventional conforming (CC) home-purchase loans, which is a majority of the U.S. mortgage market.1
The credit risk attributes of borrowers have shown dramatic variation in the last 18 years. Recent credit loosening policies by the GSEs have helped boost higher DTIs and LTVs. Figure 1 shows the share of new conventional conforming home-purchase loans with DTI ratio above 45 percent rose sharply after Fannie Mae’s move. The share, holding steady at between 5 percent to 7 percent from early 2012 up to Fannie Mae’s announcement, had reached 20 percent in Q1 2018. The average DTI ratio for CC home-purchase loans rose by two points from Q1 2017 to Q1 2018 to almost 37 percent.
Similarly, Figure 2 shows the share of new CC home-purchase loans with LTV ratio above 95 percent started to rise in early 2015 following the GSEs’ announcement. The share was less than two percent in 2014 but rose gradually and reached 9 percent in Q1 2018. The average LTV ratio for the home-purchase loans in Q1 2018 remained unchanged from Q1 2017 at 82 percent.
Though both DTI and LTV standards have been relaxed, there has been no change in credit score standards. Holding steady at 755, the average credit scores for the homebuyers with CC home-purchase loans in Q1 2018 was unchanged from Q1 2017. However, the average credit
Continued on page 5
Underwriting Loosening for Conventional Conforming LoansMortgage Credit Risk Trends for First Quarter 2018 Finds Higher DTIs
By Archana Pradhan
Archana PradhanEconomist
Archana Pradhan is an economist for CoreLogic in the Office of the Chief Economist and is responsible for analyzing housing and mortgage markets trends.
FIGURE 1. SHARE OF CONFORMING CONVENTIONAL HOME-PURCHASE LOANSDTI Ratio Above 45 Percent
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
Jan-
01
Jun-
02
Nov
-03
Ap
r-05
Sep
-06
Feb-
08
Jul-0
9
Dec
-10
Ma
y-12
Oct
-13
Ma
r-15
Aug
-16
Jan-
18
Fannie Mae raised DTI from
45 to 50 percentConforming Limit
archana: fig 1
Source: CoreLogic TrueStandings® Servicing
FIGURE 2. SHARE OF CONFORMING CONVENTIONAL HOME-PURCHASE LOANSLTV Ratio Above 95 Percent
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
Jan-
01
Jun-
02
Nov
-03
Ap
r-05
Sep
-06
Feb-
08
Jul-0
9
Dec
-10
Ma
y-12
Oct
-13
Ma
r-15
Aug
-16
Jan-
18
Freddie Mac raised LTV up to 97 percent
Fannie Mae raised LTV up to 97 percent
archana: fig 2
Source: CoreLogic TrueStandings Servicing
1 Conventional conforming loans are those that generally meet
standards for sale set by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. Based on
CoreLogic’s Public Records data for First Quarter 2018, these loans
make about 70 percent of the all purchase-mortgage loans.
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The MarketPulse g June 2018 g Volume 7, Issue 6 | Articles
Underwriting Loosening continued from page 4
score was much higher than the pre-crises level. For example, the average credit score of homebuyers was 705 in 2001, but dramatically rose during the Great Recession and was 755 in Q1 2018. In addition to high credit score standards, those high LTV/DTI loans in Q1 2018 were fully documented and are thus different than the pre-crash high LTV/DTI loans, many of which were low- or no-doc loans.
Figure 3 compares the six indicators of underwriting and credit risk during a benchmark time period to where we are today for CC home-purchase loans. The blue hexagon represents an index of credit-risk attributes in the benchmark period (average of 2001–2002 set equal to 100 for each attribute) and the red polygon represents characteristics of loans made in Q1 2018 relative to the benchmark. The share of borrowers with a credit score less than 640 as well as the low- and no-doc share were both down significantly compared to the 2001–2002 benchmark level. In contrast, the shares of new loans with an LTV higher than 95 percent and with a DTI above 45 percent were 57 percent and 26 percent, respectively, higher than the benchmark level. The condo/co-op share was 15 percent higher than the benchmark level, while the investor-owned share was 11 percent higher than the benchmark level.
This data indicated that underwriting continues to be cautious but loosening slightly for conventional conforming home-purchase loans during the Q1 2018 than a year earlier and in early 2000s. ■
FIGURE 3. SIX CREDIT-RISK ATTRIBUTES FOR CONFORMING CONVENTIONAL HOME-PURCHASE LOANSQ1 2018 Compared with 2001–2002
archana: fig 3
Credit Score Less Than 640
LTV Share Above 95
DTI Share Above 45
Investor Share
Condo Co-op Share
Low & No Doc Share
0
50
100
150
Benchmark (2001-2002 Originations)
Current (2018:Q1)
Source: CoreLogic TrueStandings ServicingNote: The share of loans made during 2001-2002 with the credit-risk attribute shown on the axis is set equal to 100.
“…the average credit scores for the homebuyers with CC home-purchase loans in Q1 2018 was unchanged from Q1 2017. However, the average credit score was much higher than the pre-crises level.”
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Articles | The MarketPulse g June 2018 g Volume 7, Issue 6
Continued on page 7
California Posts Modest Annual Home Sales Gain in April as Median Price Nears (Nominal) PeakNew-Home Sales Have Trended Higher But Remain Well Below Average
By Andrew LePage
California April home sales rose modestly year over year as the median price paid for a home fell just short of the all-time high reached shortly before the last housing bust. The median climbed to new highs again in Southern California and the San Francisco Bay Area.
With inventory still tight, an estimated1 39,485 new and existing houses and condos sold statewide in April 2018, down 1.0 percent from March 2018 but up 1.4 percent from April 2017, CoreLogic public records data show. The average change in sales between March and April since 2000 is an increase of 0.5 percent. April 2018 sales were the highest for that month since April 2016 (Figure 1), when 41,158 homes sold, and they were 14.8 percent below the average number of homes sold in April since 2000.
The median price paid for all new and existing houses and condos sold across California in April 2018 was $485,000, up 1.0 percent from $480,000 in March 2018 and up 7.8 percent from $450,000 in April 2017. The April 2018 median was 0.3 percent
below the peak $486,500 median in May 2007 (Figure 2). Adjusted for inflation, the April 2018 median remained 15.9 percent below the March 2007 peak.
The state’s median sale price has risen year over year for 74 consecutive months, since March 2012.
In the six-county Southern California2 region a total of 20,118 new and existing houses and condos sold in April 2018, down 3.7 percent month over month from 20,899 sales in March 2018 and down 1.5 percent year over year from 20,428 sales in April 2017. The April 2018 median sale price was a record $520,000, up 0.2 percent month over month from $519,000 in March 2018, and up 7.2 percent year over year from $485,000 in April 2017. Adjusting for inflation, however, the April 2018 median sale price remained 12.4 percent below its July 2007 peak.
In the nine-county San Francisco Bay Area3, a total of 7,497 new and existing houses and condos sold in April 2018, up 4.5 percent month over month from 7,173 sales in March 2018 and up 8.2 percent year over year from 6,927 sales in April 2017. The median sale price rose to an all-time high of $850,000 in April 2018, up 2.4 percent month over month from $830,000 in March 2018, and up 13.3 percent year over year from $750,000 in April 2017. The Bay Area’s April 2018 median was an all-time high even after adjusting for inflation.
Historically, new-home construction has served as the state’s pressure-release valve during periods of rising housing costs and waning affordability. In recent years, however, new-home sales have fallen well
Andrew LePageResearch Analyst
Andrew LePage joined CoreLogic in 2015 as a research analyst working in the Office of the Chief Economist. Previously, Andrew was an analyst and writer for DQNews, a partner of DataQuick (acquired by CoreLogic in 2014). Andrew provided real estate data and trend analysis to journalists and issued a variety of housing market reports to the news media on behalf of DataQuick. Prior to that he was a staff writer at the Sacramento Bee newspaper covering residential real estate topics in the capital region and across California. He continues to monitor California’s housing market for CoreLogic in two monthly data briefs detailing trends in Southern California and the San Francisco Bay Area.
FIGURE 1. CALIFORNIA TOTAL APRIL HOME SALES
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
Ma
r-00
Ma
r-01
Ma
r-02
Ma
r-03
Ma
r-04
Ma
r-05
Ma
r-06
Ma
r-07
Ma
r-08
Ma
r-09
Ma
r-10
Ma
r-11
Ma
r-12
Ma
r-13
Ma
r-14
Ma
r-15
Ma
r-16
Ma
r-17
Ma
r-18
Fo
reca
st
lepage: fig 1
Source: CoreLogic Public Records
1 Because of late data availability, April 2018 sales were not
complete in some smaller counties.2 Southern California comprises San Diego, Orange, Los Angeles,
Ventura, Riverside and San Bernardino counties.3 The San Francisco Bay Area comprises Alameda, Contra Costa,
Marin, Napa, Santa Clara, San Francisco, San Mateo, Solano and
Sonoma counties.
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The MarketPulse g June 2018 g Volume 7, Issue 6 | Articles
FIGURE 2. CALIFORNIA MEDIAN SALE PRICE
May-07: $486,500 Mar-18: $480,000
$0
$100,000
$200,000
$300,000
$400,000
$500,000
$600,000
Jan-
04
Jan-
06
Jan-
08
Jan-
10
Jan-
12
Jan-
14
Jan-
16
Jan-
18
lepage: fig 2
Source: CoreLogic Public Records
FIGURE 3. CALIFORNIA JANUARY-THROUGH-APRIL NEW HOME SALES
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
60.0%
70.0%
80.0%
90.0%
100.0%
Jan-
04
Jan-
06
Jan-
08
Jan-
10
Jan-
12
Jan-
14
Jan-
16
Jan-
18
Orange County Santa Clara County California San Francisco Bay Area
lepage: fig 3
Source: CoreLogic Public Records
California Posts continued from page 6
below historically normal levels. Statewide in April 2018 sales of newly built homes rose 4.0 percent year over year, compared with a 1.1 percent annual increase for resales. Sales of new homes were the highest in a decade for both the month of April and for the first four months of the year (Figure 3). But April 2018 sales were also 27 percent below average for the month of April since 2000, while new-home sales during the first four months of this year were also
27 percent below average for that four-month period since 2000.
CoreLogic researchers will provide additional analysis and insight into the latest housing trends at our upcoming EPIQ conference on July 29–31 in Dana Point CA. Hear from an expert panel of thought leaders on opportunities and threats facing the housing market in an enlightening session titled “Let’s Hear It From the Researchers.”. ■
In the News
MSN.com – June 13, 2018 Kevin O’Leary: This is the age when you should have your mortgage paid off But unlike other types of debt (like big credit card bills),
taking out a mortgage on a home that appreciates in
value can be a smart decision. In 2017, homeowners
with a mortgage saw the equity in their home increase in
value by an average of $15,000 according to CoreLogic.
Washington Post (Syndicated) – June 13, 2018Doomsday predictions over tax cuts have not come true - yet New research by analytics and data company
CoreLogic found that overall demand for homes is
stable or up slightly in the 500 highest cost, highest-tax
ZIP codes compared with all other ZIP codes. During the
first three months of 2018, loan-application demand in
high-cost, high-tax areas actually exceeded levels of the
previous four years.
Curbed – June 13, 2018Foreclosure rates remain at lowest levels in 11 years
“They’re almost back to the long-term normal
percentages, but not fully back,” said Frank Nothaft,
chief economist of CoreLogic. “We’re still a little bit
elevated relative to what they had been 15 years ago
or longer. I do think over the course of the next 12 to
18 months, we’ll continue to see foreclosure rates and
serious delinquency rates drift lower. We’ll probably be
back to what that normal level was.”
24/7 Wall St. – June 12, 2018U.S. Mortgage Delinquencies Decline in March, but Quadruple in Puerto Rico CoreLogic reported this data on Tuesday in its Loan
Performance Insights report. Early-stage delinquencies,
defined as 30 to 59 days past due, remained flat year
over year in March, at 1.7%. The share of mortgages that
were 60 to 89 days past due in March was 0.6%, also flat
with last year’s rate. According to CoreLogic, measuring
early-stage delinquency rates is important for analyzing
the health of the mortgage market.
Mortgageorb – June 12, 2018Rising Home Prices, Improving Job Market Holding Down Mortgage Delinquencies Although the impact from the storms on the delinquency
rate has subsided since then, Frank Martell, president
and CEO of CoreLogic, warns that the same thing could
happen again this year. “As we enter the summer, the
risk of hurricane and wildfire damage to homes increases
as does the risk of damage-related loan default,” Martell
said. “Last year’s hurricanes and wildfires continue to…
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Articles | The MarketPulse g June 2018 g Volume 7, Issue 6RiskSummit is now
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The MarketPulse g June 2018 g Volume 7, Issue 6 | Analysis
“The best antidote for rising home prices is additional supply. New construction has failed to keep up with and meet new housing growth or replace existing inventory. More construction of for-sale and rental housing will alleviate housing cost pressures.”
Dr. Frank Nothaft,
chief economist for CoreLogic
Home Price Index State-Level Detail — Combined Single Family Including Distressed April 2018
StateMonth-Over-Month
Percent ChangeYear-Over-Year Percent Change
Forecasted Month-Over-Month
Percent Change
Forecasted Year-Over-Year Percent Change
Alabama 1.0% 3.9% 0.8% 5.5%Alaska 1.9% 2.8% 1.2% 7.2%
Arizona 0.6% 6.9% 0.9% 6.9%Arkansas 0.1% 3.4% 0.6% 4.7%
California 0.9% 8.9% 1.0% 10.1%Colorado 1.3% 8.7% 1.0% 6.2%
Connecticut 0.9% 1.8% 0.8% 7.3%Delaware −0.1% 3.7% 0.8% 4.5%
District of Columbia 1.6% 2.0% 0.6% 4.5%Florida 0.6% 5.8% 0.8% 7.5%
Georgia 0.4% 5.8% 0.7% 4.8%Hawaii 1.2% 5.5% 1.0% 7.8%Idaho 1.5% 12.4% 0.9% 4.3%Illinois 1.2% 2.9% 0.8% 6.1%
Indiana 1.6% 6.3% 0.9% 6.2%Iowa 0.3% 3.3% 0.6% 4.8%
Kansas 0.9% 6.3% 0.6% 4.9%Kentucky 0.6% 5.2% 0.8% 5.3%Louisiana 0.1% 1.3% 0.6% 3.8%
Maine 3.6% 9.0% 1.7% 8.2%Maryland 0.6% 3.1% 0.7% 5.0%
Massachusetts 1.4% 6.3% 1.1% 6.9%Michigan 1.2% 7.5% 1.0% 7.4%
Minnesota 1.7% 6.7% 0.7% 4.7%Mississippi −0.4% 3.7% 0.6% 4.7%
Missouri 1.1% 6.6% 0.6% 5.4%Montana 0.6% 8.0% 1.0% 6.8%Nebraska 0.4% 4.5% 0.4% 4.6%
Nevada 0.7% 12.2% 1.1% 9.7%New Hampshire 0.5% 4.2% 0.8% 7.3%
New Jersey 0.6% 3.5% 0.6% 5.8%New Mexico 1.9% 5.4% 1.1% 5.5%
New York 1.3% 5.6% 0.7% 5.1%North Carolina 0.6% 4.6% 0.7% 4.6%North Dakota 1.6% 7.7% 0.4% 3.1%
Ohio 1.4% 7.1% 0.9% 5.6%Oklahoma 0.7% 2.1% 0.6% 4.1%
Oregon 1.2% 7.0% 1.0% 8.0%Pennsylvania 0.4% 3.6% 0.8% 5.4%Rhode Island 0.6% 9.1% 0.7% 5.1%
South Carolina 0.7% 5.3% 0.7% 4.7%South Dakota 1.4% 2.7% 0.7% 4.4%
Tennessee 1.1% 7.2% 0.7% 4.7%Texas 0.5% 5.0% 0.6% 3.0%Utah 1.9% 11.5% 1.1% 6.0%
Vermont 0.7% 3.2% 0.6% 5.2%Virginia 0.6% 2.3% 0.7% 5.1%
Washington 2.2% 12.8% 1.2% 6.5%West Virginia 1.8% 2.8% 0.9% 5.9%
Wisconsin 1.1% 5.8% 0.9% 5.9%Wyoming 0.8% 3.4% 0.9% 6.9%
Source: CoreLogic April 2018
10 Largest CBSA — Loan Performance Insights Report March 2018
CBSA
30 Days or More Delinquency Rate March 2018 (%)
Serious Delinquency Rate March 2018 (%)
Foreclosure Rate March 2018 (%)
30 Days or More Delinquent Rate March
2017 (%)
Serious Delinquency Rate March 2017 (%)
Foreclosure Rate March 2017 (%)
Boston-Cambridge-Newton MA-NH 3.2 1.3 0.5 3.5 1.6 0.6
Chicago-Naperville-Elgin IL-IN-WI 4.3 2.0 0.8 4.8 2.6 1.0
Denver-Aurora-Lakewood CO 1.6 0.5 0.1 1.9 0.6 0.1
Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land TX 7.6 4.4 0.4 5.0 1.9 0.5
Las Vegas-Henderson-Paradise NV 3.9 2.1 0.9 4.6 2.8 1.1
Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim CA 2.5 0.8 0.2 2.7 1.1 0.3
Miami-Fort Lauderdale-West Palm Beach FL 9.1 5.9 1.1 6.2 3.4 1.4
New York-Newark-Jersey City NY-NJ-PA 5.8 3.4 1.7 6.9 4.5 2.4
San Francisco-Oakland-Hayward CA 1.5 0.5 0.1 1.7 0.7 0.2
Washington-Arlington-Alexandria DC-VA-MD-WV 3.5 1.5 0.4 3.9 1.8 0.6
Source: CoreLogic March 2018
© 2018 CoreLogic — Proprietary. This material may not be reproduced in any form without express written permission.10
Analysis | The MarketPulse g June 2018 g Volume 7, Issue 6
OVERVIEW OF LOAN PERFORMANCENational Delinquency Rates
Source: CoreLogic March 2018
4.3
1.7
0.6 0.4
1.3 1.5
0.6
4.4
1.7
0.6
0.3
1.3
1.8
0.8
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
30+ days 30 to 59 days 60 to 89 days 90 to 119 days 90+ days (not infcl)
120+ days In Foreclosure
Perc
enta
ge R
ate
2.61x5.11 / 2.69x4.98loan performance mar 2018: national overview
March 2017
March 201890-119 Days
Past Due120+ DaysPast Due
60-89 DaysPast Due
30-59 DaysPast Due
30 Days or MorePast Due
90+ Days(not in fcl)
HOME PRICE INDEXPercentage Change Year Over Year
Source: CoreLogic April 2018
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
Jan-02
Jul-02
Jan-03
Jul-03
Jan-04
Jul-04
Jan-05
Jul-05
Jan-06
Jul-06
Jan-07
Jul-07
Jan-08
Jul-08
Jan-09
Jul-09
Jan-10
Jul-10
Jan-11
Jul-11
Jan-12
Jul-12
Jan-13
Jul-13
Jan-14
Jul-14
Jan-15
Jul-15
Jan-16
Jul-16
Jan-17
Jul-17
Jan-18
2.58x4.99hpi as of apr 2018
Including DistressedIncluding Distressed
Charts & Graphs
“As we enter the summer, the risk of hurricane and wildfire damage to homes increases as does the risk of damage-related loan default. Last year's hurricanes and wildfires continue to affect today's default rates. Serious delinquency rates are more than double what they were before last autumn's hurricanes in Houston, Texas, and Naples, Florida. The serious delinquency rates have also quadrupled in Puerto Rico.”
Frank Martell,
president and CEO of CoreLogic
© 2018 CoreLogic — Proprietary. This material may not be reproduced in any form without express written permission. 11
The MarketPulse g June 2018 g Volume 7, Issue 6 | Analysis
CORELOGIC HPI® MARKET CONDITION OVERVIEWApril 2018
Source: CoreLogic CoreLogic HPI Single Family Combined Tier, data through April 2018. CoreLogic HPI Forecasts Single Family Combined Tier, starting in May 2018.
Legend
Normal
Overvalued
Undervalued
CORELOGIC HPI® MARKET CONDITION OVERVIEWApril 2023 Forecast
Source: CoreLogic CoreLogic HPI Single Family Combined Tier, data through April 2018. CoreLogic HPI Forecasts Single Family Combined Tier, starting in May 2018.
Legend
Normal
Overvalued
Undervalued
© 2018 CoreLogic — Proprietary. This material may not be reproduced in any form without express written permission.12
Analysis | The MarketPulse g June 2018 g Volume 7, Issue 6
MAP OF AVERAGE YEAR-OVER-YEAR EQUITY GAIN PER BORROWERAs of Q1 2018
Vermont, West Virginia, Maine, Mississippi, South Dakota have insufficient equity data to report. Source: CoreLogic Q1 2018
$44k
$16k
$51k
$31k
$28k
$15k$8k
$22k
$3k
$20k $12k
$7k
$13k
$2k
$9k$3k
$5k
$10k
$5k
$14k
$10k
$6k
$11k
$8k$10k
$8k
$12k
$5k $12k
$13k
$9k
$9k
$6k
$6k
$9k $24k
$2k
$25k
$44k
$16k
$51k
$31k
$28k
$15k$8k
$22k
$3k
$20k $12k
$7k
$13k
$2k
$9k$3k
$5k
$10k
$5k
$14k
$10k
$6k
$11k
$8k$10k
$8k
$12k
$5k $12k
$13k
$9k
$9k
$6k
$6k
$9k $24k
$2k
$33k
$3k$9k
$9k
$14k
$4k$19k
$10k$25k
“Home equity balances continue to grow across the nation. In the far Western states, equity gains are fueled by a long run in home price escalation. With strong economic growth and higher purchase demand, we expect these trends to continue for the foreseeable future.”
Frank Martell,
president and CEO of CoreLogic
LegendQ1 2017 to Q1 2018 Average Equity Gain
More than $20,000
$10,000–$20,000
Up to $10,000
$0 or Below
Insufficient Data
NATIONAL HOME EQUITY DISTRIBUTIONBy LTV Segment
Source: CoreLogic Q1 2018
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
10%
50%
to 5
4%
55%
to 5
9%
60%
to 6
4%
65%
to 6
9%
70%
to 7
4%
75%
to 7
9%
80%
to 8
4%
85%
to 8
9%
90%
to 9
4%
95%
to 9
9%
100%
to 1
04%
105%
to 1
09%
110%
to 1
14%
115%
to 1
19%
120%
to 1
24%
125%
+
Loan-to-Value Ratio
2.81x5.2q1 equity as of q1 2018
Including Distressed
Q4 2017
Q1 2018
© 2018 CoreLogic — Proprietary. This material may not be reproduced in any form without express written permission. 13
The MarketPulse g June 2018 g Volume 7, Issue 6 | Analysis
Variable Descriptions
Variable Definition
Total Sales The total number of all home-sale transactions during the month.
Total Sales 12-Month sum The total number of all home-sale transactions for the last 12 months.
Total Sales YoY Change 12-Month sum
Percentage increase or decrease in current 12 months of total sales over the prior 12 months of total sales
New Home Sales The total number of newly constructed residentail housing units sold during the month.
New Home Sales Median Price The median price for newly constructed residential housing units during the month.
Existing Home Sales The number of previously constucted homes that were sold to an unaffiliated third party. DOES NOT INCLUDE REO AND SHORT SALES.
REO Sales Number of bank owned properties that were sold to an unaffiliated third party.
REO Sales Share The number of REO Sales in a given month divided by total sales.
REO Price Discount The average price of a REO divided by the average price of an existing-home sale.
REO Pct The count of loans in REO as a percentage of the overall count of loans for the reporting period.
Short Sales The number of short sales. A short sale is a sale of real estate in which the sale proceeds fall short of the balance owed on the property's loan.
Short Sales Share The number of Short Sales in a given month divided by total sales.
Short Sale Price Discount The average price of a Short Sale divided by the average price of an existing-home sale.
Short Sale Pct The count of loans in Short Sale as a percentage of the overall count of loans for the month.
Distressed Sales Share The percentage of the total sales that were a distressed sale (REO or short sale).
Distressed Sales Share (sales 12-Month sum)
The sum of the REO Sales 12-month sum and the Short Sales 12-month sum divided by the total sales 12-month sum.
HPI MoM Percent increase or decrease in HPI single family combined series over a month ago.
HPI YoY Percent increase or decrease in HPI single family combined series over a year ago.
HPI MoM Excluding Distressed
Percent increase or decrease in HPI single family combined excluding distressed series over a month ago.
HPI YoY Excluding Distressed Percent increase or decrease in HPI single family combined excluding distressed series over a year ago.
HPI Percent Change from Peak
Percent increase or decrease in HPI single family combined series from the respective peak value in the index.
90 Days + DQ Pct The percentage of the overall loan count that are 90 or more days delinquent as of the reporting period. This percentage includes loans that are in foreclosure or REO.
Stock of 90+ Delinquencies YoY Chg Percent change year-over-year of the number of 90+ day delinquencies in the current month.
Foreclosure Pct The percentage of the overall loan count that is currently in foreclosure as of the reporting period.
Percent Change Stock of Foreclosures from Peak
Percent increase or decrease in the number of foreclosures from the respective peak number of foreclosures.
Pre-foreclosure Filings The number of mortgages where the lender has initiated foreclosure proceedings and it has been made known through public notice (NOD).
Completed ForeclosuresA completed foreclosure occurs when a property is auctioned and results in either the purchase of the home at auction or the property is taken by the lender as part of their Real Estate Owned (REO) inventory.
Negative Equity Share The percentage of mortgages in negative equity. The denominator for the negative equity percent is based on the number of mortgages from the public record.
Negative Equity
The number of mortgages in negative equity. Negative equity is calculated as the difference between the current value of the property and the origination value of the mortgage. If the mortgage debt is greater than the current value, the property is considered to be in a negative equity position. We estimate current UPB value, not origination value.
Months' Supply of Distressed Homes (total sales 12-Month avg)
The months it would take to sell off all homes currently in distress of 90 days delinquency or greater based on the current sales pace.
Price/Income Ratio CoreLogic HPI™ divided by Nominal Personal Income provided by the Bureau of Economic Analysis and indexed to January 1976.
Conforming Prime Serious Delinquency Rate
The rate serious delinquency mortgages which are within the legislated purchase limits of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. The conforming limits are legislated by the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA).
Jumbo Prime Serious Delinquency Rate
The rate serious delinquency mortgages which are larger than the legislated purchase limits of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. The conforming limits are legislated by the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA).
corelogic.com
End Notes | The MarketPulse g June 2018 g Volume 7, Issue 6
© 2018 CoreLogic, Inc. All rights reserved.
CORELOGIC, the CoreLogic logo, TRUESTANDINGS and CORELOGIC HPI, are trademarks of CoreLogic, Inc. and/or its subsidiaries. All other trademarks are the property of their respective holders.
17-MKTPLSE-0618-00
Source: CoreLogicThe data provided is for use only by the primary recipient or the primary recipient's publication or broadcast. This data may not be re-sold, republished or licensed to any other source, including publications and sources owned by the primary recipient's parent company without prior written permission from CoreLogic. Any CoreLogic data used for publication or broadcast, in whole or in part, must be sourced as coming from CoreLogic, a data and analytics company. For use with broadcast or web content, the citation must directly accompany first reference of the data. If the data is illustrated with maps, charts, graphs or other visual elements, the CoreLogic logo must be included on screen or website. For questions, analysis or interpretation of the data, contact CoreLogic at [email protected]. Data provided may not be modified without the prior written permission of CoreLogic. Do not use the data in any unlawful manner. This data is compiled from public records, contributory databases and proprietary analytics, and its accuracy is dependent upon these sources.
For more information please call 866.774.3282
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