the management of maritime crisis

8/13/2019 The Management of Maritime Crisis

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THE M N GEMENT OF M RITIMECRISIS: THE INTEGR TION OF

PL NNING PREVENTION N RESPONSE

by

John Har ra ld Henry Marucsand Wil l iam A. Wal lace

Quick Response Repor t 34

Octobe r 1989

This publication is part the Natural HazardsResearch Applications Information Center s ongoingQuick Response Research Report Series.http://www.colorado.edu/hazards

T h i s p a p e r was p r e p a r e d f o r p re s e n ta t i on a t t h e F a l l ORS TIMSmeet ing i n New York c i t y w York O cto ber 1 6 18 1989 and t h eI n d u s t r ia l C r i s is C o n f e r e n c e s w York C i t y New York November2 4 1989 . The R e s e a r c h was s u p p o r t e d by t h e N a t i o n a l S c i e n c eFounda t ion u n d e r a r a p i d a s s e s s m e n t g r a n t from t h e N a t u r a l andManmade Hazard M i t i g a t i o n Program and by t h e N a t u r a l HazardsResea rch and p p l i c a t i o n I nf or m at io n C e nt er a t t h e U n i v e r s i t y o fC o l o r a d o .


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THE M N GEMENT OF A MARITIME CRISIS:THE INTEGRATION OF PLANNING PREVENTION N RESPONSE

J o h n R. H a r r a l dDe p a r t m en t o f Eng inee r ing d m i n i s t r a t i o n

Schoo l o f E n g i n e e r i n g and Appl i ed S c i e n c eThe George Washing ton U n i v e r s i t y

Washington , D.C. 20052 202 676- 8609

Henry S. MarcusOcean Sys t ems Management ProgramD e pa r tm e n t o f Ocean E n g i n e e r i n g

M a s s a c h u s e t t s n s t i t u t e o f Techno lo g yCambr idge , Massachuse t t s 02139

and

Wil l i am A WallaceD e c i s i o n S c i e n c e s and Eng inee r ing Sys tems

R e n s s e l a e r P o l y t e c h n i c n s t i t u t eTroy, New York 12180-3590


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INTRO U TION

c r i s i s management i n c l u d e s a s s e s s m e n t o f r i s k s ,

d e t e r m i n a t i o n o f t h e wa y t o a c h i e v e t h e l o w e s t p o s s i b l e o ra c c e p t a b l e l e v e l o f r i s k , t h e e s t a b li s h m e n t o f s y s t e m s and

p r o c e d u r e s t o m a i n t a i n t h e sys tem a t an a c c e p t a b l e l e v e l ,

t h e p re p a ra ti o n c on ti ng en c y p la n ni ng r e q u i r e d t o d e a l w i t h

e v e n t s which c o u l d t a k e p la c e , and t h e management o f

r e s p o n s e o r g a n i z a t i o n s and a c t i o n s r e s u l t i n g from t h i s

p r e p a r a t i o n when an i n c i d e n t o c c u r s . Each o f t h e s e e lements

h as an econom ic c o s t and key e l e m e n t i n c r i s i s management

i s t h e r a t i o n a l a l l o c a t i o n o f t h e s e c o s t s . The o b j e c t i v e o f

t h i s p a p e r i s t o examine t h e i n t e g r a t i o n o f p re ve n t i o n ,

p l a n n i n g and r e s p o n s e in t h e management o f m a r i t i m e c r i s e s .

The p a p e r c o n c l u d e s w i t h p r e l i m i n a r y a n a l y s i s o f t h e EXXON

V LDEZ i n c i d e n t based upon N a t i o n a l S c ie n ce F ou nd at io n

funded r a p i d a s s e s s m e n t s t u d y conduc ted by t h e a u t h o r s .

M a r i t i m e c r i s e s , i n v o l v i n g t h e s a v i n g o f l i v e s and t h e

s a l v a g e o f s h i p s and c a rg o , have been r e s u l t o f mar i t ime

commerce s i n c e ma n f i r s t s t a r t e d moving goods by w a t e r.Rescue an d s alv ag e o r ga n iz a t io n s evo lved t h r o u g h o u t t h e

wor ld and have h i s t o r i c a l l y d e a l t w ith m ar it im e c a s u a l t i e s

i n p r o f e s s i o n a l and o f t e n h e r o i c manner. The c o s t s o f

m a r i t i m e c a s u a l t i e s h i s t o r i c a l l y h as been a b s o r b e d by

complex sys tem o f u nd er w r it e rs and P r u d e n t i a l and Indemni ty

c l u b s . t u r n i n g p o i n t in m a r i t i m e h i s t o r y o c c u r r e d on

March 1 8 , 1967 when th e 117 ,000 dwt s u p e r t a n k e r TORREY

NYON s t r a n d e d on t h e Seven S t o n e s r o c k s in t h e a r e a o f s e a

b etw ee n C or nw all and th e I s l e s o f s c i l l y . minor human

e r r o r c a u s e d t h e i n c i d e n t - - t h e a u t o m a t i c c o n t r o l s w i t c h was

l o c k e d o n , d i s e n g a g i n g t h e helm. I r o n i c a l l y , s i m i l a r

a c t i o n i s b e l i e v e d t o have c o n t r i b u t e d t o th e EXXON V LDEZ

i n c i d e n t . The i n a b i l i t y o f e x i s t i n g m a ri tim e r es po n se

o r g a n i z a t i o n s t o d e a l wi th t h e 100 ,000 t o n s o f escaped c rude

o i l was soon e v i d e n t . The m a r i t i m e c r i s i s e v e n t was


4/27

r e d e f i n e d : s o c i e t y r e a l i z e d t h a t i t mus t somehow l e a r n t o

p r o t e c t i t s e l f and t h e env i ronmen t from t h e ca rgo r e l e a s e d

d u r i n g a mar i t ime c a s u a l t y .

P r o g r e s s i n d ea l i n g w i t h t h i s ne w t y p e o f c r i s i s h asb een s lo w . The g r o u n d i n g o f t h e t a n k v e s s e l RGO MERCH NT

o f f o f Cape Co d i n December o f 1976 p r o v i d e d e v i d e n c e t h a t

t h e prob lems o f o i l s p i l l p r e v e n t i o n and r e s p o n s e had n o t

been s o l v e d . I n a 1979 a r t i c l e r e v i e w i n g t h e p r o g r e s s o f

o i l s p i l l c l e a n u p i n t h e t e n y e a r s s i n c e t h e To r r e y Canyon

i n c i d e n t Whi te , N i c h o l s and G a r n e t t s t a t e t h a t l i t t l e

p r o g r e s s h a s been made o v e r t h e p a s t d e c a d e t o r e d u c e t h e

i m p a c t o f o i l s p i l l s t o t h e e x t e n t t h a t a v a i l a b l e t e c h n o l o g y

s h o u l d a l l o w . I n a 1979 r e po r t t h e N a t i o n a l R e s e a r c h

C o u n c i l o f t h e N a t i o n a l Academy o f S c i e nc es s t a t e d t h a tl i t t l e a t t e n t i o n h a s been p a i d t o ho w government and

i n d u s t r y would r e s p o n d t o a majo r m a r i t i m e c a s u a l t y

i n v o l v i n g h a z a r d o u s c a rg o [and] . . t h e t e ch n i c a l

community . . • i s c on ce rn ed a bo ut t h e c a p a b i l i t y t o do S O I na 1 98 4 M an aa em en t S c i e n c e a r t i c l e t h e a u t h o r s s t a t e d t h a t

l i the prob lem o f p ro vi d in g an immedia te r e s p o n s e [ t o an o i l

s p i l l ] i n a r e a s where m a j o r e n v i r o n m e n t a l damage may be donei n l e s s t h a n 6-12 h o u rs h a s n o t been s o lv e d o r e x t e n s i v e l y

s t u d i e d . The e n v i r o n m e n t a l damage c a u s e d by o i l s p i l l s i n

t h es e a r e a s c o u l d be mass ive and t h e p U b l i c i n t e r e s t would

b e i n t e n s e . I n t h es e a r e as t h e n a t i o n a l s t r a t e g y f a i l s . I

The d i f f i c u l t y i n p r e p a r i n g f o r and r e s p o n d i n g t o o i l

s p i l l s s t e m s from t h e f a c t t h a t t h e s e a r e e x t r e m e l y r a r e

e v e n t s w i t h i m p a c t s f a r g r e a t e r t h a n t h o s e e x p e r i e n c e d

d u r i n g more r o u t i n e e m e rg e n c i e s . S o c i e t y does n o t d e a l

e a s i l y w i t h low p r o b a b i l i t y h i g h consequence e v e n t s

p a r t i c u l a r l y when t h e r i s k i s due t o a t e c h n o l o g i c a l h a z a r d .

enk 1986 n o t e s t h a t t h e c a t a s t r o p h i c e v e n t i s

q u a l i t a t i v e l y d i f f e r e n t from l e s s s e v e r e a c c i d e n t s ; an

o b s e r v a t i o n t h a t i s p a r t i c u l a r l y t r u e when a p p l i e d t o o i l


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6/27

mar i t ime t r a n s p o r t o f l a r g e q u a n t i t i e s o f haza rdous ca rgo

c a n n o t be i g n o r e d U n f o r t u n a t e l y t h e s p i l l a l s o

i l l u s t r a t e d t h a t p r o c e s s e s which can r e d u c e t h e s e r i s k s a r e

on ly l o o s e l y c o u p l e d and t h a t t h e r e l a t i o n s h i p s between

t h e s e a c t i v i t i e s a r e p o o r l y u n d e r s t o o d P u b l i c a c c e p t a n c e

o f o i l t r a n s p o r t and e x p l o r a t i o n i n e n v i r o n m e n t a l l y

s e n s i t i v e r e g i o n s h as been shaken The government and t h e

i n d u s t r y a r e be ing c h a l l e n g e d t o d e m o n s t r a t e an a b i l i t y t o

p r e v e n t t o p l a n f o r and t o manage m ajo r r es po ns e e f f o r t

s i g n i f i c a n t l e g i s l a t i v e and ~ g u l t o r yd e c i s i o n s w i l l be

made on t h e b a s i s o f t h i s d i f f i c u l t d e m o n s t r a t i o n

Thea u t h o r s

c o n t e n d t h a t an i n t e g r a t e d examina t iono f

t h e a r e a s o f r i s k r e d u c t i o n con t ingency p l a n n i n g and

i n c i d e n t r e s p o n s e s h o u l d be u n d e r t a k e n Valuab le l i n k a g e s

be tween t h e a c t i v i t i e s can be deve loped an d pOl icy t r a d e -

o f f s c a n b e i d e n t i f i e d d e f i n e t h e s e b r o a d a r e a s a s

f o l l o w s :

R is k R ed uc tio n i n c l u d e s wide r a n g e o f a c t i o n s which

r e d u c e t h e r i s k o f r e l e a s e o f m a r i t i m e haza rdous c a r g o

A c t i v i t i e s which r e d u c e t h e r i s k o f s h i p c a s u a l t i e s i n c l u d e

t h e s i t i n g o f p o r t f a c i l i t i e s t h e c o n f i gu r a ti on and marking

o f h a r bo r c ha nn e l s t h e c o n t r o l o f v e s s e l t r a f f i c and t h e

e s t a b l i s h m e n t and enfo rcemen t o f p e r s o n n e l s t a n d a r d s The

r i s k o f c a rg o r e l e a s e r e s u l ti n g from s h i p c a s u a l t y c an

be r e d u c e d th ro ug h carg o l o a d i n g h a n d l i n g s t o r a g e and s h i p

d e s i g n and c o n s t r u c t i o n s t a n d a r d s

c o n t i n g e n c y P l a n n i n g i n c l u d e s t ~ o s a c t i o n s which

i n s u r e t h a t an a de qu at e r es po n se can be mounted t o

m a r i t i m e c a s u a l t y i n v o l v i n g haza rdous c a r g o c o n t i n g e n c y

p l a n n i n g i n c l u d e s t h e deve lopmen t o f a c c i d e n t s c e n a r i o s t h e

gaming o f t h e p o s s i b l e consequences o f t h e s e s c e n a r i o s and

t h e i d e n t i f i c a t i o n and c r e a t i o n o f t h e o r g a n i z a t i o n a l


7/27

f i n a n c i a l , and p h y s i c a l r e s o u r c e s r e q u i r e d t o minimize t h e

impac t o f t he s e i n c i d en ts .

I n c i d e n t Response i n c l u d e s a s e r i e s o f r e l a t e d a c t i o n s

i n t e n d e d t o minimize t h e impac t o f an i n c i d e n t once o c c u r s . They i n c l u d e t h e coun te rmeasu re a c t i o n s t a k e n t o

s a l v a g e t h e s h i p an d c a rg o . Th e N a t i o n a l Academy t e rms

mar ine s a l v a g e a s l i the middle ground between p r e v e n t i n g

c a s u a l t i e s an d c l e a n i n g up a f t e r t h e m ) . Response

a c t i v i t i e s ma y i n c l u d e t h e e va cu at io n o f p o p u l a t i o n s ( i f t h e

t h r e a t o f t o x i c exposu re o r f i r e e x i s t s ) and w i l l i n c l u d e

a l l a c t i o n s t a k e n t o c l e a n up a f t e r t h e s p i l l . s t h eEXXON V L EZ i n c i d e n t shows, t h e s e a c t i o n s a r e c o n s t r a i n e d

by t h e r e s o u r c e s and o r g a n i z a t i o n s c r e a t e d t h rough t h ec o n t i n g e n c y p la nn in g p ro ce ss .

THE N LYSIS OF CRISIS DECISION M KING

Once a c a t a s t r o p h i c e ve nt o cc ur s , r e s p o n s i b l e d i s a s t e r

managers mus t c r e a t e an o r g an i za t io n a p p ro p r ia t e t o t h e

demands o f t h e c r i s i s . In o r d e r t o do t h i s , t h e d i s a s t e r

and t h e d ec is io n s t h a t w i l l have t o b e made i n i t s wake must

be a n t i c i p a t e d . c o n t i n g e n c y p l a n n i n g , i n o t h e r words , must

be s c e n a r i o b a s e d and d ec is io n o r i en t e d . The g en e r at i o n o f

r e a l i s t i c s c e n a r i o s i s c r i t i c a l and n o n - t r i v i a l . A l yeska

b a s e d t h e i r c o n t i n g e n c y p l a n on two s c e n a r i o s , a r o u t i n e

s p i l l and a w o r s t c a s e s p i l l . The w o r s t c a s e s c e n a r i o

e n v i s i o n e d a 200,000 bb l r e l e a s e from a t a n k e r i n a 10 hour

p e r i O d u n d e r i d e a l wea the r c o n d i t i o n s . The EXXON V L EZ

l o s t 240 ,000 b b l s i n approx ima te ly 2-3 h o u rs . S c e na r io

g e n e r a t i o n i s a c r e a t i v e , c h a l l e n g i n g t a s k r e q u i r i n g

a d e q u a t e t i m e and e x p e r t p a r t i c i p a n t s . War p l a n n e r s have

i nv e s t ed e x te n s i ve r e so u r c es g en e r at i n g s ce na ri o s on w hich

t o b a s e n a ti on a l s tr a t eg y and t a c t i c s . The N a t i o n a l Academy

o f S ci e n ce s 1979) produced a s tudy of t h e n a t i o n s

c a p a b i l i t y o f r e spond ing t o a m a rit im e h az ar do us m a t e r i a l s


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i n c i d e n t b a s e d upon a s e t o f s k i l l f u l l y c r e a t e d s c e n a r i o s

Nunamaker, Weber and Chen 1989 have used th e U n i v e r s i t y o f

Arizona d e c i s i o n s u p p o r t room t o f a c i l i t a t e th e deve lopmen t

o f c r i s i s s c e n a r i o s by s e n i o r e xe cu tiv es o f majo r

i n d u s t r i e s Cont ingency p l a n n e r s must have c l e a r

u n d e r s t a n d i n g o f t h e t y p e o f e v e n t s which may o c c u r and t h e

r e l a t i v e p r o b a b i l i t y o f t h e s e e v e n t s . d e s c r i p t i o n o f an

e v e n t i s n o t i n i t s e l f a s c e n a r i o The s c e n a r i o i n c l u d e s

a d e s c r i p t i o n o f e n v i r o n m e n t a l c o n d i t i o n s r e sponse o p t i o n s

t a c t i c a l prob lems , and c r i t i c a l c o n c e r n s .

Once a s e t o f s c e n a r i o s i s g e n e r a t e d , t h e d ec is i o n

p r o c e s s which w i l l c r e a t e and im plem en t t h e r e s p o n s e

c a p a b i l i t y m ust be a n a l y z e d . Thi s d e c i s i o n p r o c e s s i s i n

i t s s i m p l e s t t e r m s , one o f p a t t e r n match ing . The d i s a s t e r

h as d im en sio ns o f l o c a t i o n d u r a t i o n i n t e n s i t y and impac t .

The r e s p o n s e w i l l have t h e d imens ions o f peop le , s k i l l s

equ ipmen t , money, and t im e . F r a s e r 1979 , f o r example ,

d i s c u s s e s ho w r e a l i s t i c s c en ar io s a re c r i t i c a l f o r t h e

s e l e c t i o n and s i z i n g o f r e sponse equ ipmen t . Garry 1981

shows ho w s c e n a r i o s can be used t o e s t i m a t e r e s o u r c e

r e q u i r e m e n t s f o r a s t a t e r e sponse p l a n B e l l a n t o n i e t a le 1979 u s e d a s e t o f s c e na r i o s t o de te rmine recommended

deployment r e q u i r e m e n t s f o r u.s. Coas t Guard p o l l u t i o nr e s p o n s e eq u ipm en t. M atching t h e r e s o u r c e s t o t h e problem

w i l l r e qu ir e a s e r i e s o f d e c i s i o n s which must be a n t i c i p a t e d

and a na ly ze d d ur in g t h e con t ingency p l a n n i n g p r o c e s s What

d e c i s i o n s mus t be made? What i n f o r m a t i o n should be

a v a i l a b l e t o t h e d e c is io n maker when t h e s e d e c i s i o n s a r e

made? What a r e t h e r e l a t i o n s h i p s between v a r i a b l e s and

outcomes? w a r e t h e d e ci si on s c o ns tr a i ne d by a v a i l a b l e

r e s o u r c e s ?

The o u t p u t o f t h i s d e c i s i o n a n a l y s i s i s an

i d e n t i f i c a t i o n o f in fo rm a tio n r e q u i r e m e n t s , i d e n t i f i c a t i o n

o f r e s o u rc e r e q u i r e m e n t s and c o n s t r a i n t s and t h e


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deve lopment o f t r a i n i n g s c e n a r i o s f o r d ec is i o n makers . The

d e c i s i o n a n a l y s i s w i l l a l s o p re d i c t t h e r e s u l t s o f o p t i m a l

r e s p o n s e e f f o r t s and h a s , t h e r e f o r e i m p l i c a t i o n s f o r

p r e v e n t i o n s t r a t e g i e s I f f o r example , o i l s p i l l

c o n t a i n m e n t and v e s s e l s a l v a g e o p e r a t i o n s would be

i m p o s s i b l e under c e r t a i n weathe r c o n d i t i o n s more s t r i n g e n t

v e s s e l movement c o n t r o l may be j u s t i f i e d

THE EXXON VALDEZ: A SE STUDY

The a u t h o r s were sponsored by t h e N a t i o n a l S c i e n c e

Founda t ion t o v i s i t t h e s i t e o f t h e EXXON V LDEZ s p i l l andt o i d e n t i f y p o t e n t i a l a r e a s f o r f u t u r e r e s e a r c h The

r e s e a r c h team found t h a t d e c i s i o n making i n t h e e a r l y hours

o f t h e r e s p o n s e e f f o r t was c o n s t r a i n e d by i n a d e q u a t e

p l a n n i n g i n s e v e r a l ways . The most obv ious symptom o f

i n a d e q u a t e p l a n n i n g was t h e l a c k o f immedia te ly a v a i l a b l e

r e s p o n s e r e s o u r c e s a f a c t w e l l documented i n sUbsequen t

government and p r e s s r e p o r t s More s u b t l e b u t p e r h a p s

e q u a l l y s e r i o u s was t h e f a i l u r e t o a n t i c i p a t e t h e d e c i s i o n s

and a c t i o n s which a m a j o r i n c i d e n t would r e q u i r e and t o

d e v e l o p i n f o r m a t i o n and d e c i s i o n a i d s which would s u p p o r t

t h e s e a c t i o n s such compute r based a i d s a re d es cr ib ed by

B e l a r d o e t a le 1 9 8 4 , Everson 1986 , H a r r a l d and Conway

1981 , M ick and Wallace 1986 , and Wallace and De Balough

1985 . E v e n t u a l l y t h e f e d e r a l OSC t h e s t a t e OSC andEXXON a l l e v o l v e d compute r sys tems t o t r a c k r e s o u r c e

a l l o c a t i o n s c l e a n up p r o g r e s s a v a i l a b i l i t y o f key

p e r s o n n e l and s p i l l movement. These sys tems a r e r e l a t i v e l ys o p h i s t i c a t e d i n v o l v i n g l a r g e d a t a b a s e s and g e o g r a p h i c a l

i n f o r m a t i o n sys tems , and l i t e r a l l y hundreds o f p e r s o n a l

compute r s a r e i n u se a t t h e s p i l l s i t e U n f o r t u n a t e l y, none

o f t h i s t e c h n o l o g y was i n p l a c e a t t h e t ime o f t h e s p i l l ;

t h e i n f o r m a t i o n on r e s o u r c e r e q u i r e m e n t s and a v a i l a b i l i t y


10/27

s p i l l movement , and v u l n e r a b i l i t y o f a r e a s i n t h e p a t h o f

t h e s p i l l we re n o t r e a d i l y a v a i l a b l e t o d e c i s i o n maker s .

I n o r d e r t o i d e n t i f y problem a r e a s i n t h e d ec is io n

making p r o c e s s d u r i n g t h e s p i l l r e s p o n s e , we c o n s t r u c t e d a

p r e l i m i n a r y n o r m a t i v e model o f t h i s p r o c e s s d u r i n g t h e EXXON

V L EZ i n c i d e n t . A n o r m a t i v e model i s a d e s c r i p t i o n o f what

s h o u l d h av e h ap pe ne d, assuming t h a t a d e c i s i o n maker had

a c c e s s t o a l l r e l e v a n t i n f o r m a t i o n and p o s s e s s e d t h e a b i l i t y

t o s o r t and t o c o r r e c t l y p r o c e s s t h i s i n f o r m a t i o n .

The e m e rg e n t s t a g e o f t h e r e s p o n s e t o t h e EXXON V L EZ

o i l s p i l l was modeled wi th t h e d ec is io n a n a l y s i s t e c h n i q u eo f i n f l u e n c e d iag rams u s i n g t h e s o f t w ar e package DAVID The

r e s u l t i s shown i n f i g u r e n i n f l u e n c e d i a g r a m s

Bayes ian l o g i c i s e qu iv a l e n t to t h a t o f a d e c i s i o n t r e e b u t t p r e s e n t s a much c l e a r e r v i s u a l p i c t u r e o f t h e d e c is io n

p r o c e s s . As d e f i n e d by S h a c h t e r 1987) , an i n f l u e n c e

d iag ram i s a ne twork r e p r e s e n t a t i o n o f p r o b a b i l i s t i c and

d e te r m i n i s t i c v a r i a b l e s d e c i s i o n s and an o b j e c t i v e . The

s to c h a s t ic v a r i a b l e s a r e r e p r e s e n t e d by s i n g l e o v a l s

d e te r m i n i s t i c v a r i a b l e s by double o v a l s and d e c i s i o n s by

r e c t a n g l e s . Arrows r e p r e s e n t t h e d i r e c t i o n o f i n f l u e n c e .

An i n f l u e n c e d iag ram n o t o n l y shows r e l a t i o n s h i p s be tween

v a r i a b l e s and d e c i s i o n s t i m p l i e s t h e i n f o r m a t i o n

r e q u i r e m e n t s f o r d e c i s i o n making. Howard a nd M a th es on

1984) , Owen 1984) , and S h a c h t e r 1984) show ho w t h e

i n f l u e n c e d iag ram can b e used t o model complex d e c i s i o n

p r o c e s s e s . S h a c h t e r 1987) shows t h a t a d i a g r a m s

s t r u c t u r e i s d e t e r m i n e d and t h e outcomes and d i s t r i b u t i o n s

o f key v a r i a b l e s a r e s p e c i f i e d t h e n t h e diagram ma y be

s o l v e d i n a manner s i m i l a r t o a d e c i s i o n t r e e .

The p r o c e s s o f drawing , m a n i p u l a t i n g , and a n a l y z i n g

i n f l u e n c e d iag ram s has been made e a s i e r by t h e s o f t w a r e

package DAVID d e s i g n e d by S h a c h t e r 1988) f o r t h e APPLE


11/27

MacIn tosh , SE and PPLE I I compute r s . T h i s package e n a b l e s

t h e c r e a t i o n and r a p i d m o d i f i c a t i o n o f i n f l u e n c e d iag rams

t h u s p r o v i d i n g a u s e f u l means o f communica t ing t h e

c o m p l e x i t y and i n t e r r e l a t i o n s h i p s o f a d e c i s i o n s e q u e n c e .

F or e xa mple , t h i s i n te r a c t iv e c a p ab i l it y was used by one o f

t h e a u t h or s t o a s s i s t s e n i o r d i s a s t e r s e r v i c e managers i n

t h e American N a t i o n a l Re d Cross t o a n a l y z e t h e i r c r i s i s

d e c i s i o n making p r o c e s s a s a f i r s t s t a g e i n t h e d e s i g n and

deve lopmen t o f d e c i s i o n a i d s H a r r a l d , 1988) .

u s e f u l i n t e r p r e t a t i o n o f t h e n o r m a t i v e i n f l u e n c e

d iag ram o f t h e EXXON V L EZ r e s po ns e can be made u s i n g

s i m o n s model o f t h e d e c i s i o n making p r o c e s s . In h i si n f o r m a t i o n p r o c e s s i n g view o f c og n it io n t h e d e ci si on

making p r o c e s s s t a r t s w i t h an i n t e l l i g e n c e g a t h e r i n g phase

which l e a d s t o t h e development o f a l t e r n a t i v e s o r d e s i g n

p h a s e . Once a l t e r n a t i v e s a r e g e n e r a t e d , t h e d e c i s i o n maker

i s a b l e t o compare a l t e r n a t i v e s and make a c h o i c e . The

f i n a l s t a g e i s i m p l e m e n t a t i o n .

I n f i g u r e 1 , t h e upper l e v e l o f t h e i n f l u e n c e d iag ram

r e p r e s e n t s t h e s to c h a s ti c and d e te r m i n i s t i c v a r i a b l e s which

must b e known i n o r d e r f o r t h e d e c i s i o n maker t o make

i n fo rmed s t r a t e g i c c h o i c e s . This c o r r e s p o n d s t o t h e

d i a g n o s i s o r i n te l l i g e n c e g a t h e r i n g s t a g e o f d e c i s i o n

making. I n t h e EXXON V L EZ i n c i d e n t f o r example , t h e

a l t e r n a t e c ap t a i n o f t h e P o r t wa s s e n t o u t t o p hy si c al l y

board t h e v e s s e l t o a s c e r t a i n t h e e x t e n t o f t h e damage, t h e

s t a b i l i t y o f t h e v e s s e l and t h e r a t e o f c a rg o l o s s .

The n e x t l e v e l o f th e diagram r e p r e s e n t s . a s e r i e s o f

s t r a t e g i c c h o i c e s t h e v a l i d i t y o f which depended h e a v i l y on

t h e q u a l i t y o f i n f o r m a t i o n a v a i l a b l e . These d e c i s i o n s

i n c l u d e t h e d e c i s i o n s t o o f f l o a d t h e v e s s e l t o i n i t i a t e

s a l v a g e m e a s u r e s , t o a c t i v a t e t h e Regiona l Response Team, t o

i n i t i a t e t h e s t a g in g o f r e sponse r e s o u r c e s t h e a c t i v a t i o n


12/27

o f t h e p r e - d e s i g n a t e d On Scene C o o r d i n a t o r o r g a n i z a t i o n and

t h e a cc ep ta nc e o f r e s p o n s i b i l i t y f o r c l e a n up by EXXON

The o u t p u t s o f t h e s e d e c i s i o n s were t he o rg a n i z a t io n al

s t r u c t u r e s an d r e s o u r c e s eq uip me nt a nd p e o p l e which werea v a i l a b l e t o combat t h e s p i l l i n t h e e a r l y d a y s . These

d e t e r m i n i s t i c v a r i a b l e s a c t e d a s c o n s t r a i n t s f o r t h e round

o f t a c t i c a l d e c i s i o n s which made up t h e n e x t round o f

d e c i s i o n making : t h e u se o f d i s p e r s a n t s t h e a l l o c a t i o n o f

c o n t a i n m e n t and r emova l equ ipmen t , and t h e u se o f b i o l o g i c a l

and b ur n in g a ge nt s t o combat t h e o i l . The v a r i a b l e s

d e s c r i b i n g t h e r e s u l t s o f t h e s e d e c i s i o n s r e p r e s e n t t h e

amount o f o i l removed, d i s p e r s e d b u r n e d o r b i o d e g r a d e d .

S i n c e t h i s was r e l a t i v e l y s m a l l amoun t , t h e f i n a l round o f

d e c i s i o n making i n t h e i n i t i a l s t a g e o f t h e s p i l l r e s p o n s e

was t h e a l l o c a t i o n o f booms t o p r o te c t v u ln e ra b le r es ou rc e s

and t h e r e p l a c e m e n t and augmen ta t ion o f o n - s c e n e r e s o u r c e s .

The o u t p u t v a r i a b l e d e s c r i b i n g t h e comple t ion o f t h e

emergen t s t a g e o f t h e s p i l l r e s p o n s e a re v a r i a b l e s

d e s c r i b i n g t h e m i l e s o f beach a f f e c t e d t h e impac t on

f i s h e r i e s and b i r d and mar ine m mm p o p U l a t i o n s . Thei n f l u e n c e d ia gra m d oe s n o t show t h e e v o l u t i o n o f t h e s p i l l

r e s p o n s e i n t o m a s s i v e beach c l e a n i n g o p e r a t i o n and media

e v e n t . The d iag ram a l s o does n o t show t h e g o a l o f t h e

d e c i s i o n p r o c e s s d u r i n g t h e EXXON V LDEZ i n c i d e n t Which

would be i n d i c a t e d by rounded r e c t a n g l e . i s n o t c l e a r

from t h e i n i t i a l a n a l y s i s t h a t d e c i s i o n makers had

c o n s i s t e n t and c l e a r s e t o f g o a l s .

The d iag ram may be used a s b a s i s f o r a n a l y z i n g t h e

i nf or m a ti on g a th e r i ng p r o c e s s i n g and a l t e r n a t i v e g e n e r a t i o n

which o c c u r r e d d u r i n g t h e EXXON V LDEZ i n c i d e n t . More

i m p o r t a n t l y t h e t e c h n i q u e shown m y a s s i s t i n t h e

deve lopmen t o f f u t u r e w ors t cas e s c e n a r i o s d e c i s i o n a i d s

and i n fo rm a t i o n r e s o ur c e s. S im il a r a n al y s e s c o u l d be

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13/27

conduc ted f o r haza rdous ca rgo s c e n a r i o s where a d e c i s i o n

maker mus t make a s e r i e s o f coun te rmeasu re e v a c u a t i o n and

m i t i g a t i o n d e c i s i o n s based upon s p a r s e i n f o r m a t i o n

ISSUES I DE NT IF IE D I N THE EXXON V LDEZ IN I ENT

Dur ing t h e asses smen t o f t h e EXXON V LDEZ o i l s p i l l

t h e a u t h o r s : i n t e r v i e w e d f e d e r a l s t a t e l o c a l and

i n d u s t r y o f f i c i a l s ; v i s i t e d command p o s t s and c l e a n up

s i t e s ; and were prov ided a c c e s s t o r e c o r d s message t r a f f i c

and s i t u a t i o n r e p o r t s The fo l lowing i s a b r i e f summary o f

i s s u e s i n t h e p r e v e n t i o n and management o f mar i t ime c r i s e s

which were i d e n t i f i e d i n t h e a ut h or s a n a l y s i s .

1 E x t e r n a l i t i e s / R o l e o f t h e u . s . Governmen t / s t a t e

Government

Ocean c a r r i e r s such a s t a n k e r owners o p e r a t e i n a

b u s i n e s s e n v i r o n m e n t where many e x t e rn a l i t i e s e x i s t t h a t a r e

o u ts i d e o f t h e i r c o n t r o l . N e v e r t h e l e s s t h e s e e x t e r n a l i t i e s

may have a s i g n i f i c a n t impac t on t h e i r o p e r a t i o n s .

Governmenta l b o d i e s such a s t h e U S Coas t Guard and

c l a s s i f i c a t i o n s o c i e t i e s s e t s t a n d a r d s f o r s h i p d e s i g n and

p e r i o d i c i n s p e c t i o n . The Congress has passed l aws and t h e

u . s . C o a s t Guard has promulga t ed r e g u l a t i o n s r e l a t e d t o t h e

manning s t a n d a r d s and work r u l e s on u . s . f l a g v e s s e l s . The

US G a l s o l i c e n s e s seago ing p e r s o n n e l on u . s . Flag s h i p s .

L i a b i l i t y l i m i t s on s h i p s and o i l s p i l l s have been s e t

by e x t e r n a l b o d i e s Ve s s e l T r a f f i c Systems run t h eUS G

a f f e c t t h e manner in which s h i p s e n t e r a l i m i t e d number o f

p o r t s i n c l u d i n g Valdez The s t a t e of Alaska had a

s u b s t a n t i a l r o l e i n minimiz ing t h e r i s k o f a majo r o i l

s p i l l . They p e r m i t t e d and i n sp ec te d th e Alyeska f a c i l i t y

r ev i ewed an d app ro ved con t ingency p l a n s and l i c e n s e d s t a t e

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14/27

p i l o t s . J u r i s d i c t i o n o v e r p i l o t a g e o p e r a t i o n s i s

d i s t r i b u t e d between f e d e r a l and s t a t e o r g a n i z a t i o n s .

i s f a i r t o a s k whethe r a l l t h e s e e x t e r n a l i t i e s a r e

p r o p e r l y c o o r d i n a t e d i n t o a comprehens ive package t o i n s u r ev e s s e l s a f e t y . F o r e i g n governments do n o t hand le a l l t h e

s h i p s a f e t y f u n c t i o n s i n t h e same was a s t h e u.s. Governmentd o e s . For example , t h e Dutch government i n t h e Rot t e rdamV sys tem a c ti ve ly c o nt ro l s v e s s e l movement i n c o n t r a s t t o

t h e p as s i v e u.s. s y s t e m s . compar ison can a l s o b e drawnw i t h t h e a i r l i n e i n d u s t r y , where a i r t r a f f i c c o n t r o l sys tems

and manning s t a n d a r d s a r e hand led somewhat d i f f e r e n t l y .

T h i s ma y b e an a p p r o p r i a t e t ime t o t a k e a focused ,

i n t e g r a t e d view o f t h e m a r i t i m e l e g a l and economic

env i ronment .

2. Ve s s e l S a f e t y

Elemen t s o f S a f e t y i n c l u d e : s h i p d e s i g n and

c o n s t r u c t i o n ; crew t r a i n i n g , l i c e n s i n g and manning

s t a n d a r d s ; l i c en si n g o f p i l o t s ; and t h e use o f s a f e t y

d ev ic es b oth on t h e s h i p and on t h e s h o r e . any s a f e t ya s p e c t s c a n be c a t e g o r i z e d a s a c t i v e o r p a s s i v e and i n t e r n a l

o r e x t e r n a l . They can be f u r t h e r c l a s s i f i e d s e e B a i s u c k e t

a le 1977 a s t o i n t e n t : a r e t h e y d e s i g n e d t o p r e v e n t t h e

c a s u a l t y from o c c u r r i n g , t o p r e v e n t a c a rg o r e l e a s e a f t e r a

c a s u a l t y o c c u r s , o r t o minimize t h e i m p a c t o f t h a t c a rg o

r e l e a s e ? To i n c r ea se s h i p s a f e t y, one can make changes i n

one o r more a r e a s . S hip d es ig ns o f d o u b l e bot toms o r doub le

h u l l s mus t be c o n s i d e r e d . B e t t e r t r a i n i n g o f crew s and drug

t e s t i n g a r e p o s s i b i l i t i e s . P a s s i v e i n t e r n a l equipment

i n c l u d e s f a t h o m e t e r s , r a d a r , e t c . n a c t i v e i n t e r n a l d e v i c e

would be an e le c tr o n ic c h a rt o r c o l l i s i o n avo idance sys tem

w i t h an alarm o r a means o f ta k in g c o r r e c t i v e a c t i o n .

E x t e r n a l f a c t o r s i n c l u d e Vesse l T r a f f i c Systems which a r e

r e l a t i v e l y p a s s i v e a t p r e s e n t when compared t o t h e more

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a c t i v e a i r t r a f f i c c o n t r o l sys t em. A comprehens ive s a f e t y

a n a l y s i s t h a t t i e s t o g e t h e r t h e s e many f a c t o r s i n a

c o o r d i n a t e d and e f f i c i e n t manner i s needed .

3 . C o nti ng en cy P la nn in g

The s t a t e o f Alaska and t h e f e d er a l gove rnmen t accep te l

o i l d r i l l i n g p i p e l i n e c o n s t r u c t i o n and o i l t r a n s p o r t a t i o n

The s t a t e h a s r e c e i v e d economic b e n e f i t s . The Alaskan

f i e l d s s i g n i f i c a n t l y r ed uce o u r dependence on f o r e i g n o i l

and s o c i e t y h a s c o n s c i o u s l y, o r u n c o n s c i o u s l y, accep ted t h e

e n v i r o n m e n t a l and o t h e r r i s k s i n v o l v e d . A p p a r e n t l y, no one

i n a u t h o r i t y i n l o o k i n g a t t h e r e g i o n a l c o nt in g en cy p la n o r

Alyeska p l a n s e r i o u s l y c o n s i d e r e d t h a t a 240,000 b b l s p i l l

c o u l d o r would t a k e p la c e . The r e g i o n a l c o n t i n g e n c y p l a n wa

i n a d e q u a t e f o r a 200,000 t o 240,00 b b l s p i l l mainly

b e c a u s e o f t h e l i m i t s o f t e c h n o l o g y used (which were n o t

f u l l y r e v ea l e d i n t h e p l a n s b e c a u s e t h e r e s p o n s e s c e n a r i o s

were n o t f u l l y d e v e l o p e d ) . A 1977 XXON US a r t i c l e s t a t e d

f o r example , t h a t w h i l e e x e r c i s i n g e v e r y p r e c a u t i o n t o

p r e v e n t an o i l s p i l l [ i n P r i n c e Wil l i am Sound] Alyeska h as

d e t a i l e d p l a n s t o c l e a n up a s p i l l shou ld one o c c u r . Th es t a t e a c c e p t e d A ly es ka 's p la n. Based on e x i s t i n g t echno logy

and e x p e r i e n c e i n p a s t o i l s p i l l s i s u n r e a s o n a b l e t o

assume t h a t i n a major o i l s p i l l more t h a n 20-30 o f t h e

o i l w i l l be p i c k e d up m e c h a n i c a l l y, t r e a t e d w i t h

d i s p e r s a n t s o r burned . The m a j o r i t y o f t h e o i l w i l l h i t

t h e b e a c h , a f a c t t h a t wa s n ot r ec og niz ed i n c o n t i n g e n c y

p l a n s . The l a bo r i n te ns iv e n a t u r e o f t h e beach c l e a n i n g

o p e r a t i o n was u n a n t i c i p a t e d .

The f e d e r a l s t a t e and c o r p o r a t e o r g a n i z a t i o n s which

e v o l v e d a f t e r t h e s p i l l d id n o t conform t o any

o r g a n i z a t i o n a l s t r u c t u r e s a n t i c i p a t e d i n t h e c o n t i n g e n c y

p l a n n i n g p r o c e s s . This hampered th e s p i l l r e s p o n s e and

i n t e r o r g a n i z a t i o n a l c o o p e r a t i o n . None o f t h e p l a n s

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a n t i c i p a t e d t h a t t h e a f f e c t e d o i l company n o t A l y e s k a

would a c t u a l l y ru n t h e p o l l u t i o n r e s p o n s e d u r i n g a m a j o r

i n c i d e n t . The f e d e r a l o n s c e n e c o o r d i n a t o r and t h e s t a t e

o r g a n i z a t i o n d id n o t e v o l v e i n t o s t a b l e , smoothly

f u nc t i on in g o rg a n i za t i on s u n t i l a f t e r t h e o p p o r t u n i t y t od e a l w i t h t h e f r e e o i l had e l a p s e d . Most o f t h e r e so ur c es

b r o u g h t t o t h e s c e n e by EXXON and by t h e government a r r i v e d

a f t e r t h i s t i m e . The t h r e a t o f f e d e r a l iz a t i o n o f t h e

s p i l l r e s p o n s e due t o imprope r removal a c t i o n s by t h e

r e s p o n s ib le p a rt y was n o t a p e l i e v a b l e t h r e a t . The f e d e r a l

gove rnmen t d i d n o t have t h e funds c o n t r a c t i n g c a p a b i l i t y ,

o r o r g a n i z a t i o n a l c a p a b i l i t y t o move r e s o u r c e s a s f a s t a s

EXXON c o u l d .

The f a c t t h a t t h e i n c i d e n t was a m a j o r d i s a s t e r which

would r e q u i r e an e x t r a o r d i n a r y r e s p o n s e e f f o r t was

r e c o g n i z e d r e l a t i v e l y s l o w l y by a l l p a r t i e s . D e c i s i o n

making d u r i n g t h e o p e ra ti o n was r e a c t i v e r a t h e r t h a n

p r o a c t i v e - - e . g m o b i l i z a t i o n o f beach c le an in g f o rc es a f t e r

t h e o i l was a s h o r e e s t a b l i s h i n g a f e d e r a l and EXXON

o r g a n i z a t i o n on Kodiak a f t e r t h e o i l had reached t h e i s l a n d .

The o r g a n i z a t i o n and t e c h n o l o g y f o r t h e m assiv e b ea chc le an in g o p er a t io n e v o l v e d - - n e i t h e r were c o n s i d e r e d i n p r e

s p i l l p l a n s .

The n a t i o n a l c on ti ng e nc y p la n ni ng p r o c e s s has n e v e r

f u l l y r e s o l v e d s t a t e - - f e d e r a l r e l a t i o n s h i p s d u r i n g an o i l

s p i l l o f c a t a s t r o p h i c p r o p o r t i o n s . The N P a l t h o u g h

a l l o c a t i n g one s e a t on t h e RRT t o t h e s t a t e , does n o t e n s u r e

o r r e q u i r e ) t h a t s t a t e s s e t up a u n i f i e d command s y s t e m .

The f r a g i l i t y o f t h e s t a t e / f e d e r a l and i n t r a - s t a t e

r e l a t i o n s h i p s was a c e r b a t e d i n t h e EXXON V LDEZ s p i l l by a

number o f f a c t o r s and DE had d i f f i c u l t y e s t a b l i s h i n g t

r o l e a s t h e l e a d e r o f t h e s t a t e r e s p o n s e and t h e s t a t e

r e s p o n s e o r g a n i z a t i o n d id n o t work smoo th ly wi th t h e f e d er a l

14


17/27

OS u n t i l w e l l i n t o t h e s p i l l r e s p o n s e . F a c t o r s which

a f f e c t e d t h i s r e l a t i o n s h i p i n c l u d e t h e fo l lowing :

T he Alaskan economy i s h e a v i l y dependen t upon o i l

r e v e n u e s and t o a l e s s o r e x t e n t , r e v e n u e s from i t s

f i s h i n g i n d u s t r y. The o i l i n d u s t r y i s c o n t r o l l e d from

o u t s i d e , t h e f i s h i n g i n d u s t r y i s p r e d o m i n a n t l y

Alaskan owned. The s p i l l was p e r c e i v e d as caused by

o u t s i d e r s and t h e pr imary economic impac t was on t h e

p r i m e l o c a l i n d u s t r y. The need t o c l o s e o r r e s t r i c t

f i s h i n g and t o p r o t e c t f i s h spawning a r e a s ensured t h a t

t h e s t a t e F i s h and ame had a major r o l e .

A l a s k a n s had no t a n t i c i p a t e d t h a t a major s p i l l cou ld

o c c u r and w ere t r u l y o u t r a g e d by t h e d e s p o i l i n g o f

P r i n c e Wil l i am Sound e n s u r i n g t h a t t h e s t a t e r e s p o n s e

t o t h e s p i l l would be h i g h l y p o l i t i c i z e d . The v a l u e s

p r i z e d by A l a s k a n s - - s e l f s U f f i c i e n c y, i n d e p e n d e n c e

s m a l l town v i l l a g e l i v i n g , p r i d e i n t h e p r i s t i n e

w i l d e r n e s s - - c l a s h wi th t h e a c c e p t a n c e o f t h e economic

g i a n t o f t h e o i l compan ie s .

T h e S t a t e o f Alaska i s a m a j o r landowner i n t h e P r i n c e

Wil l i am Sound a r e a , e n s u r i n g t h a t t h e Depar tmen t o f

N a t u r a l R e s o u r c e s had a key r o l e i n t h e r e s p o n s e

e f f o r t .

- N a t i v e C o r p o r a t i o n s a r e major landowners i n t h e P r i n c e

Wil l i am Sound a r e a and n a t i v e v i l l a g e s r e l y on f i s h i n g

f o r s U b s i s t e n c e . This made bo th t h e p o l i t i c a l ands o c i a l impac t s o f t h e s p i l l more complex .

- C o o r d i n a t i o n between S t a t e Emergency S e r v i c e s and t h e DE d u r i n g a major env i ronmenta l d i s a s t e r had n o t been

r e s o l v e d p r i o r t o t h e i n c i d e n t .

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The a r e a o f c on ti ng en c y p la nn in g shou ld be exam ined

c l o s e l y i n t h e wake o f t h e EXXON V L EZ i n c i d e n t . We must

be a b l e t o c r e a t e e q u i p , and manage o r g a n i z a t i o n s which a r e

c a p a b l e o f e f f e c t i v e l y and e f f i c i e n t l y d e a l i n g w i t h majo r

o i l s p i l l s .

4 . Response Ta c t i c s

Once t h e EXXON V L EZ i n c i d e n t o c c u r r e d , a window o f

r e s p o n s e l a s t e d a b o u t 72 hour s d u r i n g which e f f e c t i v e

mechan ica l removal o f o i l from t h e s u r f a c e o f t h e w a t e r was

p o s s i b l e . D i s p e r s a n t s and burn ing t e c h n i q u e s were a l s o

e f f e c t i v e a t t h e l e ad in g edge o f t h e s p i l l . T h i s window

ended Sunday n i g h t when t h e o i l was e m u l s i f i e d by a s t o r m .

A f t e r t h e i n i t i a l s to rm on Sunday n i g h t t h e r e was a window

o f l e s s o r o p p o r t u n i t y o f abou t a week, d u r i n g which t h e r e

was s t l l a s i g n i f i c a n t amount o f f r e e f l o a t i n g o i l which ,

a l t h o u g h h ig h ly e m u l s if ie d may have been s u s c e p t i b l e t o

mechan ica l p i c k up . T h i s p e r i o d a l s o prov ided t h e o p t i m a l

t ime f o r p r e v e n t i v e booming o f s e n s i t i v e a r e a s .

The amount o f r e s o u r c e s a v a i l a b l e on s c e n e , a c c e s s i b l e

i n t h e r e g i o n and i n t h e l o g i s t i c s p i p e l i n e (booms,

sk imm ers , d i s p e r s a n t s b urn in g a ge nt s) were n ot a de q ua te t o

t a k e a d v a n t a g e o f t h e f i r s t 7 h o u r window o f o p p o r t u n i t y

r e g a r d l e s s o f who was i n cha rge o r what o r g a n i z a t i o n a l

a r r angemen t was u s e d . A more e f f e c t i v e o r g a n i z a t i o n a l and

command s t r u c t u r e and a more r e s p o n s i v e m a r s h a l l i n g o f

r e s o u r c e s migh t have made a d i f f e r e n c e d u r i n g t h e week l o n g

p e r i o d o f l e s s o r o p p o r t u n i t y . During t h i s p e r i o d l e s s t h a n

5 o f t h e o i l was c o n t a i n e d removed, d i s p e r s e d o r b u r n e d .With an o p t i m a l r es po ns e a no th er 10-20 o f t h e o i l may

have been p r e v e n t e d from r e a c h i n g s h o r e - - b u t t h e amount o f

s ho re l i n e a ff ec te d would n o t have been s i g n i f i c a n t l y

d i f f e r e n t . A f t e r t h e f i r s t 10 days , l t t l e l s e c o u l d have

been done t o r educe t h e amount o f o i l t h a t h i t t h e b e a c h ,

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a l t h o u g h p r o t e c t i v e booming c o u l d s t have i n f l u e n c e d

where t h e o i l h i t The s p i l l and i t s r e s p o n s e o c c u r r e d

u n d e r r e l a t i v e l y f a v o r a b l e w e a t h e r c o n d i t i o n s During

p e r i o d s o f s e v e r e w e a t h e r i n P r i n c e Wil l i am Sound no amount

o f equ ipment d i s p e r s a n t s e t c would keep t h e o i l from t h e

b e a c h

The s a l v a g e o f t h e EXXON V LDEZ al though n o t p r e -

p l a n n e d was e x p e r t l y conduc ted i n a c o o r d i n a t e d e f f o r t by

EXXON CG Mar ine S a f e t y O f f i c e V LDEZ CG P a c if i c S t r i k e

Team and s a l v o r s c o n t r a c t e d by EXXON T h i s s u c c e s s f u l

s a l va g e p re ve n te d up t o a m i l l io n a d d it io n a l b b l s o f o i l

from e n t e r i n g P r i n c e Wil l i am Sound

As s t a t e d above r e s p o n s e t a c t i c s were s e v e r e l y

c o n s t r a i n e d by r e s o u r c e c o n s t r a i n t s and by t h e l a c k o f

f e d e r a l / s t a t e / i n d u s t r y c o o r d i n a t i o n The i n c id e n t d id

however show t h a t t h e c a p a b i l i t y o f m e c h a n i c a l c o n t a i n m e n t

and r emova l t e c h n o l o g y i s s t v e r y l i m i t e d and t h a t t h e

p o l i c i e s and p r o c e d u r e s g o v e r n i n g t h e u se o f d i s p e r s a n t s and

b u r n i n g a g e n t s have n o t been a d e q u a t e l y r e s o l v e d n o r have

t a c t i c s f o r t h e i r u s e been f u l l y deve loped

5 Beach C l e a n i n g Tec hn olo gy a nd E nv ir on m en ta l I mp ac t

P o s s i b l y one o f t h e more f r u s t r a t i n g a s p e c t s o f t h e

EXXON VALDEZ i n c i d e n t was t h a t many o f th e a c t i o n s t a k e n t o

c l e a n t h e b e a c h e s may have a c t u a l l y had a n e g a t i v e impac t on

t h e e n v i r o n m e n t While some amount o f beach c l e a n i n g i s

d e s i r a b l e t h e r e i s no consensus on how much i s t h e r i g h tamount S i m i l a r l y t h e r e i s no ag reemen t on wha t t echno logy

o r p r o c e d u r e s a r e most a p p r o p r i a t e Many t e c h n o l o g i e s and

p r o c e d u r e s used i n t h e Alaskan beach c l e a n i n g o p e r a t i o n were

a d o p t e d from o t h e r i n d u s t r i e s on s h o r t n o t i c e There i s

mixed r e a c t i o n t o t h e p r o c e s s o f u s i n g h igh t e m p e r a t u r e

h i g h p r e s s u r e h o t w ate r r e p e a te d t e n o r twen ty t i m e s t o

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20/27

c l e a n a b e a c h . comprehens ive a n a l y s i s would c o n s i d e r t h e

p o l l u t i o n c a u s e d by t h e army o f more t h a n 10,000 p e o p l e and

hundreds o f b o a t s and p la n e s i n th e p r o c e s s o f beach

c l e a n i n g .

6. W aste management

The Exxon Valdez o il s p i l l r e s u l t e d i n t e n s o f

t h o u s a n d s o f t o n s o f o i l soaked m a t e r i a l t h a t needed t o b e

d i s p o s e d o f . uc h o f t h i s m a t e r i a l was b i o d e g r a d a b l e , s u c h

as f l o a t i n g l o g s o r seaweed on b e a c h e s . Ty p i c a l l y ,

m a t e r i a l s p i c k e d up were b i o d e g r a d a b l e and p l a c e d i n p l a s t i c

b a g s . Most o f t h e w a s t e was p laced i n a h a z a r d o u s w a s t e

l and l l i n A r l i n g t o n , Oregon, one o f o n l y two h a z a r d o u s

was te l a n d f i l l s i n t h e u.s. P a c i f i c Nor thwes t . Thegovernment d i d a l l o w some i n c i n e r a t i o n on b a rg e s t owards t h e

end o f summer .

There a r e many l e s s o n s t o be l e a r n e d i n w a s t e d i s p o s a l

management from t h e EXXON V L EZ i n c i d e n t . The

Envi ronmen ta l P r o t e c t i o n Agency c ou ld p ro m ulg at e r e g u l a t i o n s

f o r ocean i n c i n e r a t i o n , a p r o c e s s t h a t h as dragged on f o rmany y e a r s . F e d e r a l g u i d e l i n e s f o r t h e d i s p o s a l o f o i l y

w a s t e s c ou ld p ro vid e b e t t e r a l t e r n a t i v e s t h a n t h e u s e o f a

s c a r c e n a t i o n a l r e s o u r c e haza rdous was te l a n d f i l l s . The

development o f b i o d e g r a d a b l e bags and t h e d e te rm i na tio n o f

t h e a f f e c t o f s a l t w a t e r on t h e o i l y w as te c ou ld a i d t h e

c l e a n up p r o c e s s .

7 . R i s k r e d u c t i o n and r e s p o n s e sys tem d e g r a d a t i o n

A l l e l e m e n t s o f t h e r i s k r e d u c t i o n sys tem e s t a b l i s h e d

when t h e p i p e l i n e was b u i l t had n e v e r been r e a c h e d o r were

degraded o v e r t i m e . Alyeska had c u t i t s f u l l t i m e p o l l u t i o n

r e s p o n s e s t a f f and a s s i g n e d t h e i r r e s p o n s i b i l i t i e s a s

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21/27

c o l l a t e r a l d u t i e s ; t h e s t a t e a c c e p t e d t h i s c o n t i n g e n t upon

r e v i s i o n s t o t h e c o n t i n g e n c y p l a n and i n c r e a s e d r e s p o n s e

d r i l l s . A lyeska had n e v e r e s t a b l i s h e d an e f f e c t i v e

c a p a b i l i t y f o r skimming o r s t o r i n g skimmed o i l . s t a t e

p i l o t s were a l lowed t o d i sembark from t a n k e r s n o r th o f B l i g hI s l a n d . The C o a s t Guard r educed i t s VTS watch from two

p e r s o n s t o one The Coas t Guard d i d n o t e s t a b l i s h a

r e l i a b l e sys tem c a p a b l e o f m o n i t o r i n g s h i p s w h i l e t h e y were

i n t h e s h i p p i n g l a n e s i n P r i n c e Wil l i am Sound Many o f th e

C o a s t Guards v e s s e l i ns pe c tio n f un c t i on s have been d e l e g a t e d

t h r o u g h c o n t r a c t s t o t h e p r i v a t e American Bureau o f

S h i p p i n g

The e l e m e n t s o f r i s k r e d u c t i o n which w er e im p le me nte d

i n 1978/79 a f t e r t h e Argo Merchan t g r o u n d i n g f a i l e d t o

p r e v e n t o r t o min imize t h e EXXON V L EZ i n c i d e n t . Naviga t ion

s a f e t y r e g u l a t i o n s p r o v i d e d p a s s i v e a i d s t o s h i p m a s t e r and

w a t c h s t a n d e r s e . g . r a d a r , l o r a n , f a t h o m e t e r c h a r t s ) .

There were no r e q u i r e m e n t s f o r a c t i v e s y s t e m s which would

a l e r t som eone on t h e s h ip o r i n t h e VTS t o t h e f a c t t h a t t h e

s h i p was s t a n d i n g i n t o danger and t h a t t h e p a s s i v e sys t ems

were b e i n g i g n o r e d o r had been d i s a b l e d . Even i suchs y s t e m s e x i s t e d , t h e r e i s no mar i t ime o r l e g a l t r a d i t i o n o r

p r e c e d e n t which would a l low anyone t o t a k e c o n tr o l o f t h e

v e s s e l away from t h e m a s t e r The c r e a t i o n o f su ch s ys te ms

would t h e r e f o r e , r e q u i r e a d e p a r t u r e from many m a r i t i m e

t r a d i t i o n s . The s e g r e g a t e d b a l l a s t p r o t e c t i v e l y l o ca te d d id

n o t p re ve nt t h e open ing o f 11 ca rgo t a n k s on t h e EXXON

V LDEZ t i s d o u b t f u l t h a t t h e p r e s e n c e o f a doub le bot tom

o r a d o u b l e h u l l would have p r v t ~t h e escape o f any

c a rg o due t o t h e i m p a c t o f t h i s e xtr em e ly h ig h momentum

g r o u n d i n g and may have compl ica ted t h e s a l v a g e e f f o r t .

None o f t h e recommendat ions f o r t h e f e d e r a l l y funded

d e v e l o p m e n t p u r c h a s e o r a l l o c a t i o n o f p o l l u t i o n r e s p o n s e

equ ipmen t which r e s u l t e d from t h e 1978 i n v e s t i g a t i o n o f th e

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22/27

ARGO MERCHANT i n c i d e n t w er e i mp le m en te d. Research i n t o

methods o f improv ing r e sponse te ch no lo gy ( ex ce pt f o rd i s p e r s a n t s and bu rn i ng agen t s ) wa s s h a r p l y c u r t a i l e d i n t h e

1980s .

ON LUS ONS

The d i r e c t economic c o s t s of t h e EXXON VALDEZ o i l s p i l l

w i l l be g r e a t . The s p i l l w i l l c o s t EXXON abou t 5 m i l l i o n

i n l o s t o i l 20 i n s a l v a g e and r e p a i r c o s t s and a b ou t

800 M i l l i o n i n c l e a n up c o s t s . The p o t e n t i a l economic

l o s s e s t o pet ro leum companies o p e r a t i n g i n Alaska a r e much

g r e a t e r : l o s s o f ELF, B r i s t o l Bay l e a s i n g mora tor ium,p o t e n t i a l l o s s of Alaska n a t u r a l w i l d l i f e r e fuge ANWR

l e a s e s . The magni tude o f t h e economic l o s s e s by t h e Alaskan

peop le and t h e s t a t e o f Alaska w i l l be de t e rmined t h rough

e x t e n s i v e l e g a l procedu re s b u t a r e e s t i m a t e d t o be i n e x c e s s

o f 1 b i l l i o n .

C l e a r l y t h e r e i s ample economic mot iva t ion t o

i n v e s t i g a te t h e l i n k a g e s and t r a d e o f f s be tween r i s k

r e d u c t i o n con t ingency p lann ing and p o l l u t i o n r e sponse and

t o i n v e s t s i g n i f i c a n t r e s o u r c e s i n each o f t h e s e a r e a s . The

a u t h o r s con tend t h a t t h e s e l i nkages shou ld be cons ide red i n

p o l i c y f o r m u l a t i o n . For example , i s c l e a r t h a t r i s k

r e d u c t i o n e f f o r t s must focus on s c e n ar i o s f o r which c o u n t e r

measure and m i t i g a t i o n e f f o r t s a r e ex t r eme ly d i f f i c u l t and

c o s t l y . I n t h e case o f chemica l r e l e a s e s evacua t ion p l a n smust be i n p l a c e f o r a r e a s / i n c i d e n t s where no e f f e c t i v e

c o u n t e r m e a s u r e s e x i s t . The r i s k s a s s o c i a t e d wi th t h et r a n s p o r t o f h a z a r d o u s ca rgo a r e so g r e a t t h a t t h e p U b l i c s

r i g h t t o p r o t e c t i o n m y outweigh t r a d i t i o n a l va lues such ast h e m a st e rs c o n t r o l o f h i s o r h e r v e s s e l and l i m i t a t i o n s o f

owner s l i a b i l i t y . Inc reased usage o f a c t i v e v e r s u s p a s s i v e

t r a f f i c c o n t r o l and n av ig at i o n a id s m y b e war ran t ed .

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c a t a s t r o p h i c s p i l l s have occur red very i n f r e q u e n t l y

and have h i s t o r i c a l l y been g e o g r a p h i c a l l y d i s t r i b u t e d

t h r o u g h o u t t h e wor ld . E f f e c t i v e r i s k r e d u c t i o n a c t i o n s w i l l

r educe t h e p r o b a b i l i t y o f t h e i r occur rence even f u r t h e rGovernment an d i n d u s t r y m ust be r eady t o d e l i v e r hundreds o f

m i l l i o n s o f d o l l a r s wor th o f c l e a n u p s e r v i c e s anywhere i n

t h e wor ld w i t h i n hours o f an i n c i d e n t This means m ore t h a n

f l o o d i n g t h e a f f e c t e d a r e a w i t h peop le and equipment .

means c r e a t i n g f un c ti on a l o r ga n iz a ti on s c a p a b l e o f making

and imp lemen t ing d e c i s i o n s and o p e r a t i n g accord ing t o

d o c t r i n e

As was d e m o n s t r a t e d t h i s summer i n P r i n c e Will iamSound much work remains t o be done b e f o r e we r e a c h t h i s

i d e a l The EXXON V L EZ r e l e a s e d c a rg o o f r e l a t i v e l y non

t o x i c c r u d e o i l i n t o very s p a r s e l y p o p u l a t e d r e g i o n The

e n v i r o n m e n t a l impac t was s i g n i f i c a n t b u t t h e impac t on

human l i f e and h e a l t h was minor. The p r o b a b i l i t y o f

c o l l i s i o n ramming o r ground ing o f s h i p c a r r y i n g chemica l s

i n p o r t s u c h a s New York i s s m a l l b u t i s c e r t a i n l y n o t

z e r o . ow e f f e c t i v e l y have we minimized t h i s r i s k and wha t

i s o u r c a p a b i l i t y o f r e spond ing t o such an i n c i d e n t ?

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B i b l i o g r a p h y

B a i s u c k , A. and W A Wa l l a c e . A Framework f o r A n a l y z i n gM a r i n e A c c i d e n t s : . Mar ine Techno lgv S o c i e t v J o u r n a l , Vo l .1 3 , N o . 5 . 1 9 7 9 ) . p p . 8 - 1 4 .

B e l a r d o , S . , J . R . H a r r a l d ,W A

Wa l l a c e , and J . E . Ward. A

P a r t i a l c o v e r i n g Approach t o S i t i n g Response R e s o u r c e s f o rMajor M a r i t i m e o i l S p i l ls . Management S c i e n c e . Vo l . 3 0 . ,No. 1 0 . O c t . 1 9 8 4 ) . p p. 118 4-1 196 .

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E v e r s o n , P. R . Emergency Plann ing D e c i s i o n S u p p o r ts y s t e m s . Te r m i n a l D i s a s t e r s . S .A. M a r s t o n , Ed. U n i v e r s i t yo f C o lo ra d o . B o u ld e r , Co. 1986) . p p . 1 1 -2 8 .

E v e r s o n , P.R . A S e l e c t i v e Review o f I n f o r m a t i o n Techno logyand i t s A p p l i c a t i o n Emergency P l a n n i n g and R e s p o n s e .Emergenc y P r e p a r e d n e s s Canada R e p o r t No. 8 7 . 0 3 . 0 7 . May1986) •

EXXON P r o t e c t i n g P r i n c e Wil l i am Sound : I m p r e s s i v eP r o t e c t i v e Measures S a f e g u a r d and I m p r e s s i v e Body o f Wa t e rw h i c h Ta n k e r s mus t T r a v e r s e w i t h C a rg o e s o f A l a s k a n o i l .EXXON US 1 6 . N o . 3 . 1977) pp . - .16 -21 .

F r a s e r , J . P. o i l S p i l l C o u n t e r m e a s u r e s - - A R a t i o n a l Systemf o r S e l e c t i o n and S i z i n g o f Equ ipmen t . P roceed inc r s : 1979o i l S o i l l C o n f e r e n c e , American P e t r o l e u m I n s t i t u t e ,Wa s h i n g t o n , D.C. 1 9 7 9 ) . pp 253-255 .

G a r r y, B. J . The M a s s a c h u s e t s o i l s p i l l c o n t i n g e n c yP l a n n i n g Mode l . . : . . P = r . . : : : o ~ c : : . : : e : : . ; : e : = : d ~ i n ~ g = s ~ : _ = 1 : . : 9 : : . . . . : 8 ~ 1 = : = = O = i : . . = 1 ~ S ~ o ~ iAmer ican P e t r o l e u m I n s t i t u t e . Wa s h i n g t o n , D.C. 1 9 8 1 ) . pp .

8 7 - 9 2 .H a r r a l d , J . R . , D Boukar i , and F.R . S a p p . The Des ign o f aD i s a s t e r Management D e c i s i o n S u p p o r t System f o r t h e AmericanRed C r o s s . George Washington U n i v e r s i t y Working P a p e r.Wa s h i n g t o n , D.C. 1989 .

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LOGIHICS DECISIONS . . . . . . ISTRGING EQUIPMENT

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EHHON URLDEZ OIL SPILL

the management of maritime crisis

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