the magic of assumptions
TRANSCRIPT
The Magic of AssumptionsAn Exploration of Assumptions for
People Who Do & Coordinate Projects
Goals
★ Introduce Assumptions
★ Discuss Assumption Use and Abuse
★ Provide Experiential Leaning
★ Have Fun
The Magic of Signatures
What’s an “Assumption”?
1. An assertion about an unknown that is treated as true for planning purposes
2. A source of project risk
3. A possible source of disagreement among project participants & stakeholders
4. A pivotal point of deception in any stage magic effect
5. All of the above
?
Assumptions & Estimates
Demonstration
Predicting the Future“There are no facts about the future”
- Some Smart Guy
Past (Fuzzy Known) Future (Assumptions)
Assumptions & Plans★ What are some of the uncertain things that
make planning difficult?
★ What lies beyond your control that tends to disrupt your plans?
Capturing Assumptionsis Magic
Review Assumptions...★ With stake holders to gain buy in
and support
★ With the team to facilitate risk management
★ Periodically with everyone to look for changes
Assumptions & Risk
★ Review the assumptions list
★ Put risks in your risk management plan for significant assumptions
★ What are the consequences to the project if this assumption is wrong?
Calming Arguments★ People disagreeing are often taking positions
based on different assumptions
★ Help them identify their assumptions
★ Explore how assumptions might be confirmed or modified
★ Can people agree to common assumptions?
★ Don’t waste time with people unwilling to revisit their assumptions
Summary★ Assumptions are a powerful planning tool
★ Documented assumptions are an asset
★ Undocumented assumptions are a liability
★ Assumptions input to risk management
★ Assumptions support estimation
★ Learning to recognize assumptions saves time & makes you seem smarter
The Big Finish...★Questions & Answers
★Feedback please
★Thank You!End
Payson HallCatalysis Group, Inc.