the long reach of early math skills greg j. duncan university of california, irvine robert siegler...
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The Long Reach of Early Math Skills
Greg J. DuncanUniversity of California, Irvine
Robert SieglerCarnegie Mellon University
Obj Count-ing
Next # # Compar-ison
0
25
50
75
3426
3749 54 51
Low Income Middle Income
The Problem Starts in the Preschool Period (Starkey et al., 2004)
% C
orr
ect
High/Low Income
White/Black White/Hispanic0
134
6277
Kindergarten Fifth grade
Math Gaps Persists Across Elementary School
(Duncan and Magnuson, 2011)
Gaps
in S
AT-
typ
e u
nit
s
High/Low Income
White/Black White/Hispanic0
134
6277
138
85
50
Kindergarten Fifth grade
Math Gaps Persists Across Elementary School
(Duncan and Magnuson, 2011)
Gaps
in S
AT-
typ
e u
nit
s
425
450
475
500
525
550
US
Father's Education
8th
Gra
de M
ath
A
chie
vem
en
tMath gaps are biggest in the United States (OECD, 1992)
Low
High
able to communicate thoughts & needs verbally
enthusiastic and curious in approaching new activities
knowing how to sit still and pay attention
Only 10% thought that it was important that children starting school know numbers and the alphabet
School readiness as defined by kindergarten teachers:
School readiness according to George W. Bush:
“On the first day of school, children need to know letters and numbers. They need a strong vocabulary...These are the building blocks of learning, and this nation must provide them.”
“[T]he elements of early intervention programs that enhance social and emotional development are just as important as the components that enhance linguistic and cognitive competence”
(Shonkoff and Phillips, 2000: 398-99)
School readiness as defined by Neurons to
Neighborhoods:
Our question:
What are the roles of math, reading, attention and socioemotional skills for later child success?
A Taxonomy of Skills and Behaviors
Skill/behavior domain:
Math and Reading
Achievement
Description: Concrete reading, math,
etc. achievement
skills
Example test areas or
question wording:
Knowing letters and numbers;
beginning word sounds, word
problems
A Taxonomy of Skills and Behaviors
Skill/behavior domain:
Math and Reading
Achievement
Attention
Description: Concrete reading, math,
etc. achievement
skills
Ability to control impulses and focus on tasks
Example test areas or
question wording:
Knowing letters and numbers;
beginning word sounds, word
problems
Can’t sit still; can’t concentrate;
score from a computer test of impulse control
A Taxonomy of Skills and Behaviors
Skill/behavior domain:
Math and Reading
Achievement
Attention Anti-social behaviors
Mental health
Description: Concrete reading, math,
etc. achievement
skills
Ability to control impulses and focus on tasks
Ability to get along with
others
Sound mental health
Example test areas or
question wording:
Knowing letters and numbers;
beginning word sounds, word
problems
Can’t sit still; can’t concentrate;
score from a computer test of impulse control
Cheats or tells lies, bullies, is
disobedient at school
Is sad, depressed,
moody
School-entry Skills & Later Achievement
Six longitudinal datasets
School entry measures of skills and behaviors
Outcomes: Reading and math achievement in 1st through 8th grade– Test scores and teacher reports
Covariates: Family SES, child and (in 1 of the 6) mother’s cognitive skills
(Duncan et al., 2007)
In other words: let’s have a horse
race between early academic skills
and behavior and see which ones win
Effects on later achievement
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 500
Anti-social
&Sad,
anxiousReading Math
At-ten-tion
Power of early math skills
Math impacts are adjusted for IQ differences
Early math predicts later reading scores as much as early reading does!
Double Jeopardy: Hernandez (2012)
• One in Six Children Who Are Not Reading Proficiently in Third Grade Fail to Graduate from High School On Time, Four Times the Rate for Children with Proficient Third-Grade Reading Skills
Persistent early school problems and adolescent attainment
Math problems
Reading problems
Attention problems
Anti-social behavior problems
Mental health problems
(Duncan and Magnuson, 2011)
Children with persistent reading problems were:• 32 percentage points less likely to graduate high school• 36 percentage points less likely to attend college
Children with persistent math problems were:• 32 percentage points less likely to graduate high school• 44 percentage points less likely to attend college
Simple associations are even more dramatic:
Effects of persistent K-5 problems on ever attending
college(average = 43%)
0 10 20 30 400
Decrease in probability of attending col-lege
Effects of persistent K-5 problems on ever attending
college(average = 43%)
0 10 20 30 400
Anxiety
ReadingAnti-socialAttention Math
Decrease in probability of attending col-lege
Effects of age 14-16 skills and behaviors on earnings (males
only)
0 5 10 150
Percent increase adult earnings
Effects of age 14-16 skills and behaviors on earnings (males
only)
0 5 10 150
ReadingAnxiety
Anti-social
Attention Math
Percent increase adult earnings
Math matters a lot
• School entry math predicts later school success
• Avoiding persistent math problems in K-5 best predicts college attendance
• Math achievement in adolescence predicts labor market success
Why math? (preliminary)
• Structural story:
• teachers and schools provide extra opportunities for early math achievers?
• moderate math skills keeps kids out of special education?
Why math (con’t)?
• Motivational story:
• Math feedback is very concrete?
• Kids who don’t master math don’t think they are good at math or good at school?