THE LONG LOOK INTO THE FAR AHEAD

I t is not surprising that in our space-age social scientists, humanists and other scholars are travell ing into the dimension of time to uncover the future and to show how men wi l l ultimately live and behave as individuals and how they wi l l conduct the affairs of human society. The number of in- st i tut ions and associations, formed for the purpose of studying and pre- dicting the developments leading to a new l i f e , to a new social order, to a new world relationship, is steadily increasing in the United States as well as in Europe. I t should suffice to l i s t the names of only a few such groups as "The Commission on the Year 2000" in Boston, "The Inst i tute for the Fu- ture" in Connecticut, "The World Future Society" which published The Fu- tu r i s t since 1968, "The Futuribles" in France, and the "Mankind 2000 Inter- national" in Vienna, Austria. Sponsors include organizations such as the National Industrial Conference Board and, rather generously, many of these associations are funded by non-profit foundations including the Ford Founda- tion and the Carnegie Foundation. The interest in this type of research and projection is so great that i t has already been proposed to establish a professorship for Futuristics at one of the ivy schools and the graduate school of a well known and respected university appeals to prospective students with: "...prepare yourself to anticipate tomorrow's radical change. This school is oriented to the Future."

The l i s t of books on this subject is long and steadily growing. Here are some t i t l es chosen at random: "The year 2000" by Kahn and Wiener, "The Next 500 Years" by Beckwith, "Ventures in Social Interpretion" by Winthrop; Stuart Clare: "The Most Probable World", Skinner: "Waldon Two", Ewald: "Environment for Man: The Next Fif ty Years", Flechtheim: "Futor- ologie", Mohr: "Die Zukunft der Menschen", Picht: "Die Situation des , Menschen in der Zukunft tier technisierten Welt", Jean Maynaud: "Les specu- lations sur l 'aveni r " ,

The focal point of these discussions is the prediction of social trends, sc ient i f ic social experimentations, computer-oriented programs for forecasting and controll ing the long-run impact of technological changes in relation to socio-economic developments. Some of the efforts have been limited to specific goals l ike the creation of a valid image of peace to overcome international tension; others are intended to serve as clearing centers for all future-centered studies and ac t i v i t i es . Some of the con- tr ibutions may sound utopian today, but nearly all of them involve serious sc ient i f ic studies which deserve wide attention and should be taken into consideration by all who are concerned with the future of mankind.

I t is said that within a few decades 80 to 85 per cent of the world population wi l l l ive in super-cities with 30 mil l ion inhabitants and more. In the post-industrial age 147 workdays and 218 holidays wi l l make up the year. Average income and productivity wi l l be so high that man wi l l not have to work longer than 15 years to be able to spend the rest of his l i f e in leisure. The average l i f e expectation wi l l increase to 85 years soon and wi l l eventually be extended to 150 years. In the year 2000 only 15 to 20 percent of the work force wi l l be employed in production. Regional specialization in agriculture and manufacturing wi l l see worldwide intensi- f icat ion. International wage-rates wi l l be equalized. Foodstuff wi l l be supplied from the sea in large quantities and recovered from industrial waste. Health services wi l l be enlarged everywhere and some of the most commonplace dreaded diseases wi l l disappear completely. Drugs wi l l change personality defects and molecular biology wi l l make i t possible to increase the intel lectual facult ies of man. An expanded, intensif ied and individ- ual is t ic educational system wi l l create a quality society and new social

and moral concepts w i l l assure greatest security of man's l i f e . Regardless whether these forecasts w i l l become rea l i t y , f u l l y or p6r t ly ,

and not withstanding what new research may discover, no one can deny that socio-economic changes are in the making which in magnitude and comprehen- siveness wi l l be equal to or surpass the technological and sc ien t i f i c break- throughs of this century. In the last sixty years the condition of l i f e has been altered more than in the previous three thousand years. Many painful consequences are rooted in those tremendous changes. But, to give way to despair would be of no help. This is no time for inactiveness. We have to learn to understand the new era of human history.

In a time of rapid and radical changes i t is indeed essential to study what there w i l l be tomorrow, in f i f t y years or in a hundred years. I t is time to consider the value problems which are involved. To make decisions today requires the knowledge and the vision of tomorrow. Without these we would be d r i f t i ng into a future of uncertainty. A well-founded hope for a better world needs early preparations: "Some would consider such hopes utopian. I t may be that these persons are not rea l is t icenough, and that they have not perceived the dynamics of a world which desires to l i f e more f ra terna l ly " said Pope Paul VI (Populorum progressio). He appealed to al l men of good w i l l and to the laymen in par t icu lar to take up as their own proper task the renewal of the temporal order. Changes are needed, basic reforms are indispensable. I t is necessary to be on guard to assure that these changes bring a turn to the "deepening of human knowledge, an enlarge- ment of the heart, a more brotherly way of l iv ing within a t ru ly universal human society".

I t goes without saying that on the basis of serious and sound studies of the future normative alternat ive models must be developed. Traditional norms wi l l have to be reevaluated and i t may become necessary to develop new norms, and social principles which should become the "utopia of real- i t y " . However, basic values should not be lost out of sight. Fundamental truths of social, re l ig ious, economic and po l i t i ca l l i f e should not be a r b i t r a r i l y altered. What is good and beneficial can only be judged with firm standards of value. Man has to learn more about himself.

Bertrand de Jouvenel warned that i t is childish to proceed to do the possible without assessing the consequences. He goes on saying: " I f modern science declares that we wi l l be able to do everything we wish to do the question is: What actually do we want?" What do we expect from a "good l i f e " and a "good world"? Who actually has a r ight to force upon us inno- vations and discoveries either out of cur iosi ty or for p ro f i t seeking? Who has to suffer from the consequences and who in the f inal analysis has to pay for them? Nobody can "turn the clock back" or wishes to see this done. In mature wisdom an evaluation of the complete results should precede any action.

I f man wishes to " f i l l the earth and subdue i t " through methodical in- te l lectual planning, i f he wishes to introduce a new earthly order then ethical suppositions and implications have to be recognized in advance, be- fore he commits himself to anything however great the enticement may be.

This period of great social changes, this period of the formation of a new and quite d i f fe rent society worldwide challenges us to lace problems which are unparalleled in the past. We have to open our hearts to the dimensions of the future, we have to part icipate and cooperate in building the things to come. But we have to make our decisions on magnitude and size in such a way as to direct the developments into a course that brings the expected benefits and advancements based on true values and untouchable pr inciples.

I f we miss the chance now, we lose the r ight to complain la ter .

Ludwig H. Mai