The lay of the landThe lay of the land

Oslo, its aftermath, and political players in 21st century Palestine-Israel

Oslo, its aftermath, and political players in 21st century Palestine-Israel

What happened after the 1st Intifada?

What happened after the 1st Intifada?

Palestinians & Israelis come to the negotiation table for the 1st time. Why?Gulf WarEnd of Cold WarIntifada

1991 Madrid negotiations1993 & 1995 Oslo Accords

Palestinians & Israelis come to the negotiation table for the 1st time. Why?Gulf WarEnd of Cold WarIntifada

1991 Madrid negotiations1993 & 1995 Oslo Accords

Main tenets of the Oslo Accords

Main tenets of the Oslo Accords

Interim settlement NOT a final agreement PLO recognizes Israel’s “right to exist” and

forswears use of violence Israel allows creation of Palestinian National

Authority under leadership of the PLO to govern some parts of the Occupied Territories in some administrative & economic spheres.

Total territory transferred to sole Palestinian control is 3-4% of the West Bank & Gaza.

Interim settlement NOT a final agreement PLO recognizes Israel’s “right to exist” and

forswears use of violence Israel allows creation of Palestinian National

Authority under leadership of the PLO to govern some parts of the Occupied Territories in some administrative & economic spheres.

Total territory transferred to sole Palestinian control is 3-4% of the West Bank & Gaza.

Oslo Accords: Control over Land

Oslo Accords: Control over Land

Palestinians get self rule for the 1st time in their history, but highly circumscribed.

Land in the Occupied Territories divided into 3 zones Area A zones: full PA civil and security control Area B zones: PA civil control, Israeli military & security

control Area C zones: Israeli civil and security control Ultimately gave PA control over most of the territories’

population but only over about 5 % of land Israel retains right to patrol all borders & control airspace Israeli military, Jewish settlers, and Israeli citizens retain all

rights to enter all territories

Palestinians get self rule for the 1st time in their history, but highly circumscribed.

Land in the Occupied Territories divided into 3 zones Area A zones: full PA civil and security control Area B zones: PA civil control, Israeli military & security

control Area C zones: Israeli civil and security control Ultimately gave PA control over most of the territories’

population but only over about 5 % of land Israel retains right to patrol all borders & control airspace Israeli military, Jewish settlers, and Israeli citizens retain all

rights to enter all territories

Oslo Accords: LandOslo Accords: Land

Source: Foundation for Middle East Peace

Return to ConflictReturn to Conflict End of Oslo process

1995 Assassination of Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin by Israeli assassin

Palestinian bombings within Israel 1996 Election of more conservative Israeli

government (Netanyahu) Second Palestinian Intifada (Al Aqsa

Intifada), 2000-2004 2001 election of Ariel Sharon

End of Oslo process 1995 Assassination of Prime Minister Yitzhak

Rabin by Israeli assassin Palestinian bombings within Israel 1996 Election of more conservative Israeli

government (Netanyahu) Second Palestinian Intifada (Al Aqsa

Intifada), 2000-2004 2001 election of Ariel Sharon

What were the underlying causes of the collapse of the What were the underlying causes of the collapse of the Peace Process?Peace Process?

Al Aqsa intifada: Underlying Grievances

Failure of Oslo Accords (1993-1995): Stalled peace processIsraeli Settlements

Area occupied by settlements doubled between 1992 and 1999Around 480,000 settlers in the WB and Jerusalem (about 9-10% of WB population today)56 new settlements established in 2002-2003.140-180 settlements total in the WB and Gaza

Bypass roads

Poor and autocratic PA administrationEconomic suffering

Pal. Repertoires

WhoHamas

Carried out about 50% suicide bombings

Al-Aqsa Martyrs BrigadesMilitant wing of FatahAbout 25% suicide bombings

Islamic JihadHow:

Urban warfareArmed attacks on army posts, Israeli settlementsMilitary equipment: light arms, hand grenades, remote-controlled landmines, Qassam rockets.

Suicide bombingsClashes at checkpoints between young Palestinian men and soldiers

Above, Rescue workers aid a woman injured in a 2002 Tel Aviv bombing that killed 22 people and injured more than 100. Both Islamic Jihad and the Al-Aqsa Brigades claimed responsibility.

Israeli Responses

Reoccupation of PA cities

Aerial and land attacks on Palestinian communities

Hundreds of Palestinians killed

Destruction of houses2001-2005: 666 houses destroyed as punitive measure (not in course of combat)Cessation announced Feb. ’05.

Assassinations329 Palestinians killed by Israelis through assassination attempts (213 actually targeted)Hamas leaders Sheikh Ahmed Yassin and Abdel Aziz al-Rantisi assassinated

Curfews & checkpoints27 permanently staffed checkpoints in West Bank plus 26 on Green Line

Separation barrier (wall)Begun June 2002

Israeli tanks move into Ramallah, 2002. Photos: BBC

Al-Aqsa Intifada: fatalities

(9/29/2000-02/2006)

684 Israeli civilians, including 118 minors, killed by Palestinians.

309 members of the Israeli security forces killed by Palestinians

3,331 Palestinians, including 643 minors, killed by Israeli security forces.

41 Palestinians, including 3 minors, killed by Israeli civilians.

169 Palestinians killed by other Palestinians for suspected collaboration with Israel

(Source: B’Tselem)

Initial results

Kept the conflict in the news (especially by al Jazeera TV)Substantial shift to the right in Israeli public opinion

New narrative of non-possibility of negotiated peaceRhetoric of demonization from both Palestinians and Israelis (“no partners in peace”)50% Palestinian unemployment (up dramatically since 2000)

65% of Palestinians classified as below poverty lineWide critiques of PA

PA inability to provide strategy for resistance

Israel: basic characteristics

Highly centralized (unitary)Knesset (parliament)

120 seatsPR system, closed list, 2% threshhold

Hierarchical (leadership-driven) politics“Porous” boundaries between defense and legislative branches, and legislative and religious institutionsKey interest groups: Military (IDF) and religious establishmentStrong and independent Supreme Court, but family law under separate religious courtsEthnic hierarchy (“ethnocracy?”)Re-conceptualizing Israel and the PA: one regime or two?

Israel: Key Players

Knesset

Cabinet

PM

President

Generals

High Court of Justice

U.S.

PA/Fatah/Hamas

Israeli Defense Forces(IDF)

Rabbinical Establishment Shas

NRP-Nat UnionLikud Kadima Labor United

ArabList

Palestinian Legislative Council

* 132 members

Prime Minister &cabinet

President

A general view over Al Manara roundabout adorned with posters for the electoral campaign one day before the legislative elections, in the West Bank town of Ramallah January 24, 2006. (MAANnews/Charlotte de Bellabre

Basic Law (serves as constitution)

Mixed electoral system:50% by PR

50% by plurality

Directly elected by

people

Appoints PM &

cabinet

Palestinian National Authority (PA)

Recent events Nov 2004 Arafat dies Aug-Sept 2005 unilateral Israel disengagement

from Gaza Israeli assassinations and airstrikes against Hamas

and Gaza; Palestinian rocket attacks in Israel Fatah/Hamas ceasefire towards Israel 2005-2006

Jan 2006 Hamas victory in PA Legislative elections June 2007 Battle of Gaza

Gaza and W. Bank de facto divided into two entities Emergency government in PA

2007-2008 Israel embargo on Gaza strictly limits exports to Gaza & seals borders (Jan 2008) Critical shortages of fuel medicine, food, supplies in Gaza

Jan 2008 Palestinian breaching of Gaza-Egypt wall Israeli attack on Gaza, Dec/Jan 2008-2009

Palestinians killed by Israeli sec. forces in OT and Israel, 4861

# of minors: 956Pal’s killed by Israeli civilians: 47Israeli civilians killed by Pal’s in OT and Israel: 727

# of minors: 123Israeli soldiers killed: 335Palestinians killed by Pals: 594

Casualties in 2008-2009 Gaza Attack1,100-1,400 Pal’s killed

300-900 civilians; 100-400 minors13 Israelis

Source: UN, B’Tselem

Casualties 2005-Dec 26 2008Casualties 2005-Dec 26 2008