The Kyoto Protocol’s Flexibility Mechanisms

Major Issues in Implementing Flex Mechs

• Supplementarity• Additionality

– Baselines– Additionality– Leakage

• Breadth and Equity

Additionality

• 3 main issues– Baselines– Proving additionality– Dealing with leakage

Additionality

• 3 main issues– Baselines

• Easy where you already have an existing ongoing project

• But what about if there’s a new proposal?• What if the existing facility is going to shut down

anyway?

Additionality

• 3 main issues– Proving additionality

• Need to show that the emissions reductions would not have occurred without the JI project

• E.g., if a company is planning to close a coal plant and replace it with a wind farm, then the JI and CDM projects are not “additional”

• But if the funding for the projects will come only from JI/CDM, then the projects are additional

Additionality

• 3 main issues– Dealing with leakage

• Some projects may actually increase emissions somewhere else – or at least not remove as many emissions as thought

• E.g., if solar ovens replace wood burning for fuel, and thus reduce deforestation, this may actually increase wood availability for another village to burn

• Increased efficiency can sometimes = increased consumption

Specific Problems with CDM

• Allowable projects– No reduced deforestation– Must reduce emissions, not just develop

renewable energy

• Inequitable distribution– China and India

• Technology transfer• Sustainable development?

Specific Problems with CDM: Human-Made Gases

Specific Problems with CDM: Human-Made Gases (before 2008)

Specific Problems with CDM: After 2008

CDM Projects

Hydro Projects: Are They Additional?

Inequity in Distribution

Inequity: Projects and GWPs

CDM today

• Active area of project development and investment

• Has become critical form of development support

• Questions for future:– Limitations on distribution?– Other mechanisms for least developed countries?

Post-Kyoto

Commitment period = 2008-2012What happens next?

Post-Kyoto

• Commitment period = 2008-2012– What happens next?

• Goal? UNFCCC– Stabilization of GHG concentrations in the atmosphere at a

level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system.

• But how?

Post-Kyoto

• Bali Action Plan– Major issues

• Developed countries will increase commitments – but by how much?

• Developing countries must implement “nationally appropriate mitigation actions” – but what are they, and who decides, and how to measure?

• How to get U.S. and China to commit?

Post-Kyoto

• Bargaining positions:– EU: 20% reductions by 2020 if no post-KP; 30% if

there is– U.S. and major emitters process

• Includes major emitting developing countries• Not clear what the goals should be or if they would be

binding• Each country picks own goal and strategy• Unclear how parties could be accountable

Post-Kyoto

• Bargaining positions:– G8 (major industrial countries)

• Commit to take strong action• Must maintain common but differentiated responsibility

– Developed countries must act– BUT also need developing country participation

• Must improve technology transfer• Market mechanisms (i.e., emissions trading) are

important• Include reduced emissions from deforestation• Adaptation and energy efficiency

Post-Kyoto

• Bargaining positions:– Developing countries

• Major responsibility rests with developed countries– 72% of emissions 1750-1990

• Sustainable development and technology transfer are of highest importance

– Developed countries must support

• Developed countries must pay for and help perform adaptation

Post-Kyoto: Bali

• Bali Action Plan– Need a shared vision for long-term cooperative

action with long-term global goal for emissions reductions

– Enhanced national/international action on mitigation

– Enhanced adaptation– Enhanced technology transfer and development– Enhanced funding for developing countries

Post-Kyoto: Bali• Bali Action Plan

– Enhanced national/international action on mitigation

• Developed countries: QELROs (i.e., Kyoto Protocol assigned amounts) + measurable, reportable, and verifiable nationally appropriate mitigation commitments

• Developing: Nationally appropriate mitigation actions (NAMAs)

• Reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation (REDD)

• Sectoral approaches/ sector-specific actions

Post-Kyoto: Bali

• Bali Action Plan– Parties agreed to reach new post-Kyoto

agreement by 2009, when the parties met in Copenhagen

Post-Kyoto: Copenhagen

• Copenhagen Accord– Leading up to the meeting – developing country

arguments:• Developed countries must “take the lead”• NAMAs must be non-binding

– U.S. argument:• No China/India, no U.S.

Post-Kyoto: Copenhagen Accord

• Agreements– Stabilize concentrations at a level that will prevent

dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system

• Increase should be below 2 degrees Celsius

– Agree that the countries need deep cuts in global emissions – and that emissions must peak as soon as possible

• i.e., emissions must stop increasing

Post-Kyoto: Copenhagen Accord

• Agree to increased action on adaptation, especially in least developed countries, small islands, and Africa

Post-Kyoto: Copenhagen Accord

• Emissions limitations– Annex-I Parties: economy wide targets by 2020 – to

be submitted later– Non-Annex I Parties: NAMAs – to be submitted later

• REDD • More money - $30 billion 2010-2012/ $100 billion

per year by 2020• Technology mechanism• Assess Accord by 2015

Post-Kyoto: Copenhagen Accord

• Examples of Annex I commitments– Australia – reduce emissions by up to 25% below

2000 baseline if reach agreement/ 5% if not– EU – 20% if no post-KP; 30% if post-KP agreement– Japan – 25% if all major economies participate– U.S. – 17% below 2005 baseline

Post-Kyoto: Copenhagen Accord

• Examples of non-Annex I commitments– Brazil – reduced deforestation; increase biofuels,

increase alternative energy– China – lower emissions per GDP (carbon

intensity) by 40-45%– India – reduce intensity by 20-25%– S. Africa – 34% reduction based on business as

usual

Post-Kyoto: After Copenhagen

• Meetings in Cancun, Mexico, and Durban, South Africa– Still unclear what will happen– Seems like the Kyoto Protocol will be “extended,”

but it is unclear how or what the targets and timetables will look like