the jade- weser · pdf filethe jade- weser port ... 13 7. data collection ... contribute in...
TRANSCRIPT
1
The Jade-Weser Port
An Economic Impact Assessment
By: Susanne Kleinsteuber
European Business School
Tutor: Prof. Gerald Vinten
Date: 7th of March, 2002
2
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY..................................................................... 6
CHAPTER I: INTRODUCTION........................................................... 7
1. Introduction........................................................................................ 7
2. General Background of the Study ...................................................... 8
3. General Purpose of the Study............................................................. 9
4. Professional Significance of Study...................................................... 9
5. Organisation of the following Chapters............................................ 10
CHAPTER II: METHODOLOGY & LITERATURE REVIEW ........ 11
1. Research Approach .......................................................................... 11
2. Research Strategy............................................................................. 11
3. Objectives of this Paper.................................................................... 11
4. Research Questions .......................................................................... 12
5. Research Design ............................................................................... 12
6. Reasons for the Research Strategy: .................................................. 13
7. Data Collection................................................................................. 13
7.1. Phase 1 of the Research Process: Macroeconomic Principles ........ 13
7.2. Phase 2 of the Research Process: Maritime Economics................. 15
7.3. Phase 3 of the Research Process: The Jade-Weser Port ................ 17
7.4. Phase 4 of the Research Process: Economic Impact Assessment... 22
8. Limitations ....................................................................................... 26
9. Suggestions ....................................................................................... 27
CHAPTER III: ECONOMIC IMPACT ANALYSIS........................... 28
1. Objective of an Economic Impact Analysis ...................................... 28
TABLE OF CONTENT
3
2. The Frameworks .............................................................................. 29
2.1. Statistical Forecasting.................................................................... 29
2.2. Input/Output Model ...................................................................... 30
2.3. Cost/Benefit Analysis ..................................................................... 30
3. Procedure of Presentation of Results................................................ 31
CHAPTER IV: DESCRIPTION OF THE JADE-WESER PORT ...... 33
1. Time Plan ......................................................................................... 33
2. Project Investment and Finance ....................................................... 33
3. Planned Capacity of the Container Terminal................................... 34
4. Construction Measures..................................................................... 35
CHAPTER V: REGIONAL ANALYSIS.............................................. 36
1. Geographic Location........................................................................ 36
2. Infrastructure ................................................................................... 37
3. Population & Labour Force ............................................................. 39
4. Economic Structure.......................................................................... 40
5. Future Development of the Industries.............................................. 40
CHAPTER VI: ARGUMENTS IN FAVOUR OF THE PORT............ 42
1. Economic Significance of the Shipping Industry .............................. 42
2. The Demand Side: Growth in overseas Container Traffic ............... 44
3. Overall Competitive Advantage ....................................................... 46
4. Economics of Container Vessel Sizes ................................................ 47
5. Projected Benefits ............................................................................. 49
5.1. Employment Benefits ..................................................................... 49
4
5.2. State and Local Government Tax Revenues.................................. 52
5.3. Snowball Effect in the Chemical Industry ..................................... 53
CHAPTER VII: ARGUMENTS AGAINST THE PORT .................... 56
1. Economics of Vessel Size .................................................................. 56
2. Demand – Side and Forecasting ....................................................... 59
3. Employment Benefits........................................................................ 60
4. Environmental Impact...................................................................... 62
4.1. The Construction Phase................................................................. 62
4.2. Voslapper Groden.......................................................................... 63
4.3. National Nature Park – ‘Nationalpark Wattenmeer’ .................... 64
4.4. Environmental Feasibility.............................................................. 64
CHAPTER VIII: CONCLUSION........................................................ 65
1. Importance of Sea-Borne Trade ....................................................... 65
2. The Demand-side.............................................................................. 65
3. The Ship Size .................................................................................... 66
4. The Employment Benefits ................................................................ 66
5. The Cost of Economic Growth – Cost of the Port ............................ 67
6. The Port’s Competitive Strategy...................................................... 68
7. The Jade-Weser Port strives to become a Multi-Port....................... 69
CHAPTER IX: RECOMMENDATIONS............................................ 70
1. Infrastructure ................................................................................... 70
2. Attraction of new Businesses ............................................................ 70
3. Employment...................................................................................... 71
5
4. Tourism ............................................................................................ 71
BIBLIOGRAPHY ................................................................................ 73
APPENDICES
Appendix 1: The Time-plan of the Jade-Weser PortAppendix 2: The Investment Proposal for the Jade-Weser PortAppendix 3: The Global Demand ScenariosAppendix 4: The Intermodal Split of Cargo VolumeAppendix 5: The international Transport Zones and available Transport ModesAppendix 6: The Regional Analysis: Population and Labour ForceAppendix 7: The Regional Analysis: Industries’ Share in GDP and EmploymentAppendix 8 The Regional Analysis: Employment by Industry StructureAppendix 9: The Seaborne Trade by Economic ActivityAppendix 10: The Producing Industry: Development of Output/ Export RatioAppendix 11: The World Merchant Fleet Order Book DevelopmentAppendix 12: The Container Ship Dimensions, Explanations, Load Factor/Depth
RequirementsAppendix 13: The Technology Systems at Terminal
EXHIBITS
Exhibit 1: The Geographical Location of the Jade-Weser PortExhibit 2: The Structure of the Presentation of ResultsExhibit 3: The Planned Capacity of the Jade-Weser PortExhibit 4: The Dimensions of the Jade-Weser PortExhibit 5: The Infrastructure Connectivity of the Jade-Weser PortExhibit 6: The E.U. Development of GDP and Container Shipping since 1985Exhibit 7: The Forecasted Growth of Demand for Container Shipping in Northern
EuropeExhibit 8: The Forecasted Capacity of North-Range Ports until 2015Exhibit 9: The Planned Capacity and Market Share of North-Range PortsExhibit 10: The Cost-Differences according to Ship SizeExhibit 11: The Total Projected Employment BenefitsExhibit 12: The General Cost Classifications
6
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
The following report investigates the regional economic impact of the Jade-Weser Port in
Wilhelmshaven by evaluating the costs and benefits involved.
The new container terminal is projected to bring important economic and social benefits,
namely the creation of employment, multiplier effects, local and state tax revenues.
The construction of the terminal and its operation at a later stage, however, also imply
costs, which are sacrifices on environmental grounds in form of pollution, noise emission
and additional infrastructure congestion in the hinterland.
Next to evaluating the projected benefits and costs, this report will also examine the
underlying rationale for the Jade-Weser Port, which include the forecasted growth in
container shipping, the increase in ship size and capacity constraints at neighbouring
harbours, henceforth analysing the viability of the project.
The Jade-Weser Port will bring direct benefits in form of employment and fiscal
revenues. Whether these are satisfactory in regard to the scope of investment or to the
expectations of the population remains to be seen. As the investigation will demonstrate,
the significance of the project lies within the long-term indirect prospects of the region.
The port will initiate a chain reaction of beneficiary effects hopefully resulting from the
creation of an industrial chemical compound and the arrival of new enterprise
surrounding the port. In this aspect, the Jade-Weser Port is assumed to serve as a catalyst
for economic growth, thereby significantly re-shaping the wealth of the whole region.
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
7
CHAPTER I: INTRODUCTION
1. Introduction
The Jade-Weser Port will be located at the deep fairway of the outer Jade in
Wilhelmshaven and shall become Germany’s sole and Europe’s most modern deep-water
harbour. The idea of a universal port at Wilhelmshaven was born about thirty years ago
when a local engineer named Tappe envisaged a solution to overcome the poor regional
economic structure. Not taken seriously, his plan was conceived as wishful thinking and
had been long forgotten. Today, representatives of the local economy and politics have
resurrected the Tappe vision with slight modifications and are pushing it into reality.
Thirty years later Wilhelmshaven is trying to deal with the same old problem: the
creation of a solid base of income for economic growth and prosperity for the whole
Jade-Weser region. Therefore this paper will be a study on the Jade-Weser Port and its
socio-economic impact on the Jade-Weser region.
CHAPTER I: INTRODUCTION
8
Exhibit 1: Location of the Jade-Weser Port
Source: Ineos, 2001
2. General Background of the Study
The Jade-Weser Port is a project of such an immense scope that it is bound to turn the
course of history of a region for the better or worse. Its social and economic implications
make extensive investigation and discussion worthwhile. As the port could act as an
initiator for economic growth and development it could provide the opportunity to
substantially increase regional prosperity.
9
3. General Purpose of the Study
Within the course of current debates it has been argued that the efforts for the creation of
such a harbour are not justified by the low projections for workplaces which evolve from
the operations of the harbour itself. Furthermore the opposing forces (mainly
environmentalists) regard the container terminal as environmentally incompatible,
‘useless’, ‘too expensive’. They described it as an effort coming far too late in order for
Wilhelmshaven to successfully path its way into the transportation industry, as other
successful harbour operators have established themselves since long (HANSA, 1999).
The evaluation of these arguments will necessitate the examination of the projected local
economical impact of the Jade-Weser Port. Therefore, the purpose of this paper is to
investigate the trade-off between economic benefits and costs (mainly environmental)
and henceforth define the economic viability of this project. It is furthermore intended to
give the reader an insight into the impact the harbour can be expected to have in
promoting economic growth and development, thereby significantly and positively
effecting the wealth of the region.
4. Professional Significance of Study
Regarding the contribution to professional knowledge it is hoped that this study will
contribute in informing not only the affected population in the Jade-Weser region, but the
10
general wider audience. This will increase awareness and an understanding of the
significance of this project, regardless of the overall outcome. This subject is of great
importance, as it will affect numerous organisations and whole communities one-way or
the other and can therefore be regarded as a historical opportunity.
5. Organisation of the following Chapters
The Methodology and Literature Review in Chapter II familiarises the reader with the
author’s approach to the subject. Next to introducing the main literature it furthermore
provides the relevant models for economic impact analysis. Building on the findings,
Chapter III evaluates the most suitable frameworks to be used in order to assess the port’s
regional impacts and illustrates how the results are going to be presented. Chapter IV
delivers a brief description of the Jade-Weser Port project, the time frame, planned
investments and the technical aspects. Following the description, a regional analysis in
Chapter V provides the necessary background information. Chapter VI presents the
arguments in favour while Chapter VII discusses the arguments against the port that lead
to a conclusion in Chapter VIII. The final Chapter IX intends to give recommendations
directed towards a successful realisation of the project.
11
CHAPTER II: METHODOLOGY & LITERATURE REVIEW
1. Research Approach
The research approach for this paper is mainly of an inductive nature, involving a long
and constant data collection and analysis. Within this permanent process of up dating
ideas and arguments emerge gradually. Taking into consideration that Jade-Weser Port
Project is in the process of realisation, the future impacts and consequences can only be
estimated. Thus, the inductive approach will allow for the flexibility and multiple
viewpoints required.
2. Research Strategy
The research strategy involves a multi-method, using a combination of methods and thus
qualitative and quantitative data in order to obtain the closest estimates of the impacts.
Such an approach should make it possible to cover the topic in the most thorough way.
3. Research Objectives
The underlying task of this study is to assess the viability of the Jade-Weser Port project.
This involves evaluating the importance of sea borne trade on the national economy in
general, and also the importance of a single port, acting as a facilitator of economic
CHAPTER II: METHODOLOGY & LITERATURE REVIEW
12
growth. The examination of the possible economic and environmental impacts of the
Jade-Weser Port container terminal on the Jade-Weser Region will allow for an
investigation of a trade-off between the environment and the economic benefits. The
objectives of this study therefore intend to tackle the following specific research
questions.
4. Research Questions
1. What is the economic significance of sea-borne trade?
2. What are the direct and indirect benefits of the Jade-Weser Port?
3. What are the direct and indirect costs of the Jade-Weser Port?
4. What arguments are the driving factors?
5. What are the arguments against the Jade-Weser Port?
6. Which industry sectors are most likely to benefit from the new terminal and
therefore contribute to the region?
7. Who will ultimately benefit?
8. Does the region need a container terminal and if, will it succeed in promoting
economic growth and prosperity?
5. Research Design
From the beginning it was planned to carry out the research in several progressing
phases: Beginning broadly and narrowing down to the essence. In order to provide a line
of guidance to the reader, the different steps are briefly introduced in advance:
13
1. Research on macroeconomic principles
2. Research on maritime economics and sea-borne trade
3. Research on the Jade-Weser Port
4. Research on economic impact assessment
6. Reasons for the Research Strategy:
Taking into account the novelty of the subject matter, it was perceived that this logical
and structural sequence of research would be the most effective, as the process of
narrowing down would allow for increased specification and formulation of the
problematic issues, hence the achievement of the research objectives.
7. Data Collection
As explained during the research design the collection of data occurred in four different
stages. The structure of the headings intends to guide the reader through the different
steps.
Fehler! Keine Indexeinträge gefunden.7.1. Phase 1 of the Research
Process: Macroeconomic Principles
7.1.1. Objective of Research Process
The first stage of the research intended to put the harbour into a macroeconomic context,
hence to find suitable literature on regional development and to obtain economic
14
definitions, most importantly on economic growth, development and its variables leading
to growth (such as capital, labour, land and raw materials, economies of scale and
technical knowledge).
7.1.2. Literature on Regional Development
After searching for literature on regional development (e.g. by Paul Krugman’s
‘Development, Geography, and Economic Theory’) it turned out, that these were directed
towards a totally different scope: regions defined by continents, explaining the
differences in economic development on a national level. The literature proved to
concentrate on developing countries and to be too broad. Therefore it did not help to
identify any practical models that could have been applied onto the regional and local
level of the Jade-Weser region.
7.1.3. Literature on Economic Growth
Turning towards economic growth and development, Kasliwal (Kasliwal, 1995) delivered
a good overview of the different factors of growth. Several models on economic growth
were accessible (i.e. by N. Gregory Mankin, professor at the Harvard University),
however, none have been adopted specifically within this report. This can be explained
by the fact that presumptions made in order for the frameworks to be accurate are not
applied in practice with the Jade-Weser Port (i.e. no governmental interference within the
book by Stanely Fischer and Rudiger Dornbusch or an increase of supply of land which
in the case of the port is going to be re-claimed as a subsidy by the State of Lower
Saxony).
15
7.1.4. Result of First Research Phase
Encountering macroeconomic models proved to be very difficult and complicated.
Defining economic growth, development and its variables did not lead to an
understanding of how it can be applied to a practical case like the Jade-Weser Port. At
this stage it appeared to be essential to find other ways of approaching this challenging
task, starting by gaining a specific insight into maritime economics.
7.2. Phase 2 of the Research Process: Maritime Economics
7.2.1. Objectives:
The objective of this research phase was to generate an understanding on maritime trade
and the shipping industry.
7.2.2. Theoretical Literature on Maritime Economics
Martin Stopford’s book on maritime economics enhanced the academic and an economic
understanding of maritime trade on an academic level. It included the economic
organisation of the shipping market, supply, demand, costs and revenues, economic
principles of maritime trade, global patterns and many other economic models and
technical aspects. His book delivered qualitative information that has been used
extensively within the analysis section. Nevertheless, it did not provide recent market
data on the shipping trade itself, which brings us to the next main source.
16
7.2.3. Industry Statistics
The Institute of Shipping Economics and Logistics (ISL) in Bremen releases annual
reports in form of a “Shipping Statistics Yearbook”, containing the most recent statistics
on the international shipping industry. The ISL deliveres the projections made on the
development of world container shipping, shipbuilding and size that will be used as
arguments favouring the port project within this study.
7.2.4. Industry Up-date
First of all journals specialised on maritime trade, available at the British Library, have
publicised articles written by different industry participants, identifying and discussing
recent issues and trends within the industry. The journal “World Port Development” and
“HANSA” included issues relevant to the Jade-Weser Port, especially regarding
environmental factors aggravating port expansion, targeted in reaction to international
growth in container shipment. These journals conveyed practical knowledge from the
point of view of industry participants.
A large amount of newspaper articles have been collected in order to enable a constant
up-date on developments. Due to the high amount of articles collected, the bibliography
will only include articles, which have been used within this report.
7.2.5. Result of the Research Phase
Overall, this research phase delivered the essential understanding of the shipping industry
and general problematic issues currently discussed especially in regard to port economics.
17
Without this research and knowledge; it would not have been possible to evaluate the
different arguments and assess their viability.
7.3. Phase 3 of the Research Process: The Jade-Weser Port
7.3.1. Objective of the Research Phase
After gathering information on the industry, the task was to find sufficient reliable and
suitable information on the Jade-Weser Port project itself.
7.3.2. Primary Literature - Interviews
Getting as close to the topic as possible, interviews were scheduled with different key
stakeholders. As they hold a personal interest in the project (or aversion in case of the
anti group) we have to assume that they might lack a certain degree of objectivity.
Objective of the Interviews
The aim of these interviews was to obtain a holistic view and a general impression of the
project by speaking to all different actors directly involved and responsible for the
planning and realisation of the project.
Administrative Issues
The interviews were processed in an informal manner, face-to-face and semi-structured,
with the intention to allow enough room for change and interaction. The data was noted
18
down by hand to the extent that it was allowed to be recorded. These interviews were all
scheduled for January 2002 and took place either in Wilhelmshaven or in Jever (within
the Rural District of Friesland) at the beginning of the research process. The average
duration was 1-2 hours.
Interview Partners
Subjects to these interviews were representatives from the Economic Development
Corporation, Chamber of Industry and Commerce, Jade-Weser Airport GmbH,
Employers Association, the Wilhelmshaven City Authority and representatives of the
chemical industry. To complete the picture, special attention was also given to the
primary opposition group.
Difficulties Emerging
There were several difficulties emerging. As the interviews had to take place in Germany,
the time-scale for the conduction was not only limited, but also restricted to a certain
period of time during the year. They had to be carried out all at once in January, namely
in the middle of the research process. Therefore, at the time of the interviews, there was
an absence of a clear understanding of what was concretely involved in an economic
impact assessment (so to say the variables of measurement). This lack of knowledge
inhibited the formation of specific questions that would have clearly targeted the research
questions on the port’s direct and indirect impacts. These variables in its form only
became apparent after the last step of the research process.
19
Another problem was the restricted access to the most recent numbers and estimations
regarding the project (disclosed information), in other words, the variables of the
economic impact analysis, especially regarding an estimation of the government and local
tax revenues that the port and related businesses are expected to generate. There is a
certain and important background to this: Competing Federal States in Germany still try
to block the implementation of the Jade-Weser Port, using all and any facts and
information obtainable for political purposes. Information policy is still rather tight.
Therefore, even if the knowledge had been at hand prior to the interviews, the chances of
receiving the financial data would still have been very slim.
Result of the Interviews
Resulting from the difficulties and restrictions described above, the information obtained
could not fully serve to answer the research objectives. Nevertheless, they delivered an
excellent insight into the problematic of the port, complexity and interdependency of the
numerous factors involved ensuring success (port development, infrastructure
development and politics).
7.3.3. Secondary Literature
The only secondary literature existing was “Accomplishing the Future with the Jade-
Weser Port” (Simonsen, 2001). It proved as useful for gaining familiarity with the
project, delivering valuable background information of the birth of the Jade-Weser Port
idea and project, the political implications on a regional and local scale. Furthermore it
provided an essential impression on the complexity and social acceptability of a project
20
of such immense scope. It contains mainly newspaper information, letters and critical
comments and seems to have served as a promotional tool to the Jade-Weser Port project,
which again reduces objectivity.
7.3.4. Studies and Reports on the Jade-Weser Port Project
Feasibility Study
In regard to reports written explicitly on the Jade-Weser Port, the first main source was a
technical, economic and environmental feasibility study that had been carried out in co-
operation between IBP (Engineering Company in Oldenburg), the Institute of Shipping
Economics and Logistics and the Port and Transport Consulting Bremen GmbH.
Completed in 1999, it was introduced to the public only in February 2000 withholding
the financial and economic part of the study, which would have delivered the needed
variables for the economic impact assessment. This study confirmed the technical,
economic and environmental feasibility of the port.
Study on the Necessity of a Deep-Water Port
This study was conducted by Planco Consulting GmbH in October 2000, investigating
the demand for a deepwater harbour in Germany on the basis of projected growth rates in
container shipment, the future development of ship size and capacity constraints of the
relevant North Range harbours (Hamburg, Bremerhaven, Rotterdam, Amsterdam,
Antwerp, Zeebruegge), British and Asian ports. It delivered a detailed analysis of
container growth expectation, strategic implications and the theory of economies of scale
21
in maritime economics. The use of published studies and projections together with
statistical analysis and forecasting have ensured objectivity and delivered a reliable and
important background study for this report.
Evaluation of Options for Ports: Wilhelmshaven or Cuxhaven
Roland Berger Consulting compared and evaluated the two possible locations for a
container terminal at Wilhelmshaven and Cuxhaven, with the result that Wilhelmshaven
is the most suitable option.
Economic Development Prospects of the Region
The main piece of literature used extensively throughout this report is a study made in
2001 in collaboration by two well-respected organisations: the Lower Saxon Institute for
Economic Development Research (NIW) and the Institute for Economic Development
Research (BAW). Their task was to assess the economic development prospects of the
Jade-Weser Region in regard to the Jade-Weser Port.
The report includes a detailed situational analysis on the region and an estimation of the
socio-economic impacts. This study has built on the Jade Weser port Feasibility Study,
the Berger and PLANCO Reports, and hence made use of extensive databases and
statistics in order to reach the most plausible results. The report has ‘used’ comparisons
with other German harbours as a method for estimation. In comparison to all literature
referred to in this report, this particular study has been the most valuable one, as it
deliveres quotable data, clearly relates to the objectives stated and also demonstrates the
22
complexity and difficulty in undergoing such an assessment. Unfortunately, this study did
not include any useful financial data.
7.3.5. Results of Research Phase
As can be observed, there is little existing secondary literature on the Jade-Weser Port.
This increased the dependency on the interviews for information, which can be regarded
as disadvantageous. Therefore, quotable data had to be extracted from the different
reports made. As these have all been conducted by external organisations the objectivity
of these studies is maintained.
7.4. Phase 4 of the Research Process: Economic Impact Assessment
7.4.1. Objective of the Research Phase
The last phase represents the heart of this report. The objective was to obtain relevant
frameworks or models explaining how an economic impact assessment is carried out,
therefore defining essential data and variables.
7.4.2. The Models – Comparable Studies
After thorough research in the British library, it appeared to be somewhat impossible to
find a comparative study, which evaluated the economic impact of another deep-sea
harbour. The Internet however provided a few sources.
23
The first study obtained by the State of Nevada (Horten, 1999) explicitly described the
application of economic analysis, forecasting and statistical modelling techniques,
providing statistical methods of forecasting, non-statistical input/out-put models and
economic impact analysis. This work has been adopted as a theoretical guideline during
this report.
Nevertheless, the actual structure of the impact analysis has been derived from another
exemplary work carried out for the South Carolina State Ports Authority (Link, 1996),
evaluating the contribution of its waterborne commerce to South Carolina’s economy.
The report confirmed the significance of deep-sea ports to the local economy and
described it as a catalyst for economic growth and development, a result that relates to the
hypothesis given within this paper. Even though it is a report about a geographically very
distant location, it leaves enough room for appropriate application to the case of the Jade-
Weser Port. Most importantly the report demonstrated a detailed economic impact
analysis delivering the essential variables of measurement using an Input/Output model:
Ø Employment Benefit
Ø Sales Revenue Benefit
Ø Personal Income Benefit
Ø State and local Tax Benefit
24
The significant difference however lies within the fact that the Jade-Weser Port project is
still distant from realisation. Therefore, it is impossible to obtain equivalent data that had
been used originally in the report of South Carolina’s Ports Authorities.
Another example for economic impact assessment of a port has been released by the
authorities of the Ports of Auckland, New Zealand (Ports of Auckland, 2000),
emphasising on the significance of its ports in bringing prosperity to the national
economy. This study also accounts for the direct and indirect benefits and confirmes the
variables used by the South Carolina’s State Ports Authority.
All these comparable studies have given a direction towards what variables can be used
for impact measurement. The institution A.Strauss-Wieder Inc again confirms the
variables and this structure. They have developed a ‘MARAD Port Kid’ (Maritime
Administration Port Kid) for sale, which provides a step-by step handbook of how to
undertake an economic impact assessment. However, to meet the research objectives, it
was necessary to encounter an additional approach that would increase the scope and
allow to include variables measuring the disadvantages or costs of a port.
This was given by an economic impact assessment on the investment for a National
Stadium of Ireland in form of a Cost/Benefit analysis. Even though the nature of the
project is not even close to a deepwater port, the technical framework appears usable, as
it offers more simplicity and flexibility than the previous models proposed and especially
since it includes additional variables such as environmental implications. This exemplary
25
study represented an important addition, significantly shaping the structure of the
presentation of the results.
7.4.3. Cost of Economic Growth
There remains one essential part to be covered specifically within the literature review:
The costs of economic growth; the costs of the Jade-Weser Project. The necessary
information has been collected through following main sources:
The Opposing Organisations
The primary source was the material and studies obtained by the Anti-port organisation,
established in reaction to the Jade-Weser Port project in form of published reports,
articles and newsletters. The information addresses various aspects of the costs involved
of the Jade-Weser Port, especially the environmental implications. Despite the fact that
personal motives again reduce objectivity, the chain of argumentation nevertheless is
logically based on scientific studies and have to be taken into consideration.
Compatibility of Growth in Container Shipping and the Environment
The second piece of literature is “Container, Seaport and Ecology” (Deecke 1998) written
on behalf of Lower Saxony and World Wide Fund-Germany. This report is relevant as it
investigates the compatibility of growth in container shipment, capacity expansion at
ports and environmental sustainability. This report demonstrates objectivity and
credibility and provides excellent information with regard to risks and environmental
implications.
26
Feasibility Study
The study has evaluated the environmental feasibility of the Jade-Weser Port, explaining
in detail the effects that the port is expected to bring.
7.4.4. Results of Research Phase
The findings of this research phase delivered several models. Due to the nature of the
study, it is not possible to rely on a specific one. A combination of all three models might
have to be used to analyse the port’s impacts. However, this will be illustrated in detail in
the next chapter.
8. Limitations
There have been several considerable obstacles during the research. First of all there has
been a serious lack of knowledge on maritime economics and trade, which represents a
completely new addition to the prior academic studies of the author.
Next to maritime economics, the economic impact assessment procedure is a whole
subject and science in itself, usually carried out by professionals specialised on providing
these kinds of services. Henceforth there has been a disadvantage.
The access to data especially regarding economic impact estimations of the Jade-Weser
Port is very limited, very restricted and difficult to obtain. Even though the responsible
27
Jade-Port Development Corporation maintains their own Internet site, there was almost
no qualitative financial information obtainable (the reasons are explained in section
7.3.2.).
9. Suggestions
When looking at the research design and results obtained during the process, it is evident
that it had not been the ideal approach to completely fulfil the objectives set out in this
paper. Knowing the determinants of an economic impact assessment from the beginning
would have been advantageous even though the crucial data is not yet accessible by the
public.
Secondly, the interviews should have been carried out at the very last phase of the
research process, after the acquisition of sufficient knowledge, in order to focus to the
specific and most relevant aspects.
28
CHAPTER III: ECONOMIC IMPACT ANALYSIS
The approach, derived to tackle the objectives within this paper has been shaped and
defined primarily by the literature introduced within the phase 3 and 4 of the research
process. According to the findings the initial intention of conducting a pure economic
impact assessment had to be slightly re-directed and re-defined as will be illustrated
within this chapter.
“Impact Assessment, simply defined, is the process of identifying the future
consequences of a current or proposed action”
(International Association for Impact Assessment, 2002)
Before going into detail of how such an economic impact study is conducted, the author
will briefly explain the objective and the data searched for in an assessment study.
1. Objective of an Economic Impact Analysis
An economic impact assessment of the Jade-Weser Port is devised by measuring the
direct and indirect impacts that it is projected to result in. The direct impact represent the
expenditure of the port industry, generated as industries sell exported or imported goods
or through further processing. These direct impacts are created as revenues and are
earned from handling and transportation of cargo through existing ports facilities. These
CHAPTER III: ECONOMIC IMPACT ANALYSIS
29
revenues support direct employment, personal income, and in turn state and local taxes,
acting as catalysts for the creation of indirect impacts. A further impact can occur on the
resources and environment (Link, 1996).
Indirect impacts are created as expenditures made by port users and their supplying
industry firms. These can be in form of further spending in supplies, services, labour and
other resources required for the operation of the port industry. When direct and indirect
effects are re-injected into the economy (i.e. through industry and households re-
spending) reference is made to the multiplier effect. These are so-called induced impacts
(describing change in consumer spending, generated by changes in labour income,
accruing to the workers in the port industry, as well as increased labour in the supplying
business), (Link, 1996).
2. The Frameworks
Three techniques, Statistical Methods of Forecasting, Non-Statistical Input/Input Model
and Cost-Benefit Analysis have come into consideration.
2.1. Statistical Forecasting
The use of statistics for forecasting is based on the analysis of historical data, statistically
proven interactions and dependencies over a period of time. Such historically proven
relationships however do not prove anything, but merely indicate a statistical probability
30
and thus a 95% of ‘confidence’, as it is based on the assumption that history repeats itself
(Horton, 1999).
2.2. Input/Output Model
The Input/Output Model focuses on the interrelationships among industry sectors.
Through mathematical procedures, it calculates the total economic impacts or multiplier
effect of port industries and potential investments (A. Strauss-Wieder Inc, 2000). This
model distinguishes between the direct, the indirect and the induced impacts.
To measure the economic impact of a port, following main variables are traditionally
used in an Input/Output Model (A. Strauss-Wieder Inc, 2000).
q Employment benefit (direct and total)
q Total output (business sales revenue)
q Personal income (wages and salaries)
q Tax revenue for state and local governments
2.3. Cost/Benefit Analysis
A Cost/Benefit Analysis is a procedure for making long-run decisions, whether they may
involve the building of a new factory or in this case a container terminal. As actions
31
“have implications far into the future, the correct way to make a decision is to compare
the present value of the costs with the present value of the benefits” (Dornbusch, 1995).
3. Procedure of Presentation of Results
Due to the restricted data accessibility mentioned in the research methodology and
literature review, it was decided to combine the traditional economic impact assessment
methods and Statistical Forecasting and the Cost/Benefit Analysis.
Exhibit 2: Form of Presentation of the Results
Conclusion Conclusion
Recommendations Recommendations
Arguments in favour and against the port
Arguments in favour and against the port
Input / Output Model
Input / Output Model
Statistical Forecasting Statistical
Forecasting
Cost / Benefit Analysis
Cost / Benefit Analysis
Conclusion Conclusion
Recommendations Recommendations
Arguments in favour and against the port
Arguments in favour and against the port
Input / Output Model
Input / Output Model
Statistical Forecasting Statistical
Forecasting
Cost / Benefit Analysis
Cost / Benefit Analysis
32
The Input/Output Model should counteract against the above-mentioned weakness of
statistical forecasting. By combining these two models with a Cost/Benefit Analysis it
will be possible to focus on the variables available for an impact assessment. To partially
compensate for disclosed data, we will use comparisons with other container terminals
and derive own broad estimations.
However, it is necessary to consider the impossibility of assessing the impact of the port
by the use of actual data. As the port is still in project phase, the impact analysis will be
of a predictive nature.
Nevertheless, this mixture should increase the level of predictability and thus allow for
the most accurate meeting of the research objectives. Despite the risk given by the lack of
relevant data, this procedure should enable the reader to draw own conclusions regarding
the rationality of this port.
The results will be presented in a section for arguments in favour the port, and arguments
against the port.
33
CHAPTER IV: DESCRIPTION OF THE JADE-WESER PORT
The Jade-Weser Port project involves the construction of a deepwater terminal in
Wilhelmshaven, specifically targeted at cargo handling.
1. Time Plan
According to the timetable the actual construction will begin in the year 2003 and the
terminal should be operational in 2007. The operator of the terminal will be Eurogate,
which is also prepared to pay part of the cost of the infrastructure investment, as we will
cover in the following section (Please see Appendix 1 for the detailed time Plan).
2. Project Investment and Finance
The total investment so far has been estimated at around Euro 700 - 800m (Please see
appendix 2 for detailed investment purposes). The terminal infrastructure and
suprastructure (cranes, vehicles etc.) is intended to be financed privately, whereas the
remainder will have to be covered by the state, hence the taxpayers.
CHAPTER IV: DESCRIPTION OF THE JADE-WESER PORT
34
3. Planned Capacity of the Container Terminal
Using the moderate demand scenario, the maximum capacity for container handling is
estimated at TEU 1.8m (Transport Equivalent Unit; 1 TEU equals a 20 feet long standard
container) by the realisation of the first phase in 2013/2015 (please see Appendix 3 for
the scenarios).
Exhibit 3: The Planned Capacity of the Jade-Weser Port
Source: Feasibility Study, 1999
Of this volume TEU 738,000 will account for feeder traffic and TEU 1,062,000 for the
mega carriers (Please see appendix 4 for the intermodal split of volume traffic). By the
final stage in 2020, the capacity for container handling is estimated at TEU 4.1m.
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
in 1.000 TEU
Year
1.8 M
io. T
EU
Scenario I
Scenario IIScenario III
TEU 3.6m
TEU 4.1m
TEU 2.9m
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
in 1.000 TEU
Year
1.8 M
io. T
EU
Scenario I (7 %)
Scenario II (5 %)Scenario III (4 %)
TEU 3.6m
TEU 4.1m
TEU 2.9m
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
in 1.000 TEU
Year
1.8 M
io. T
EU
Scenario I
Scenario IIScenario III
TEU 3.6m
TEU 4.1m
TEU 2.9m
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
in 1.000 TEU
Year
1.8 M
io. T
EU
Scenario I
Scenario IIScenario III
TEU 3.6m
TEU 4.1m
TEU 2.9m
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
in 1.000 TEU
Year
1.8 M
io. T
EU
Scenario I (7 %)
Scenario II (5 %)Scenario III (4 %)
TEU 3.6m
TEU 4.1m
TEU 2.9m
35
4. Construction Measures
The first phase of the project involves the land reclamation of around 460 acres at
Voslapper Groden designated for the terminal, leaving enough space for commercial
purposes and logistical services and a completely new 1725-meter long quay (designed
for three mega carrier docking stations). This quay wall can potentially be extended by 12
km. The depth of currently 16.5m (for docking approaches) can be extended to 18.5m. In
addition, there is sufficient room for the expansion of port facilities by 4.1 km.
36
CHAPTER V: REGIONAL ANALYSIS
In order to evaluate the significance of the Jade-Weser port project, it is vital to create an
awareness for the current economic structure and interactions within the region. This
chapter however will only briefly present the key points, as additional information is
given in the appropriate appendices.
Whenever reference is made to the Jade-Weser Region, the geographical area consisting
of the Rural Districts of Friesland, the Wesermarsch, Wittmund and the City of
Wilhelmshaven is meant. Altogether there are 24 towns and communities, reaching a
total regional population of around 340,000.
1. Geographic Location
Wilhelmshaven has a clear geographical attractiveness, specifically for the shipping
industry, harbours or industrial compounds resulting from the excellent direct access to
the sea and its unparalleled depth of around 17m.
CHAPTER V: REGIONAL ANALYSIS
37
Exhibit 4: The Dimensions of the Port
Source: INEOS, 2001
Interestingly and a decisive criteria for the building of the container terminal is its
hinterlands capacity, leaving virtually unlimited room for expansion. Wilhelmshaven is
able to designate vast areas of land for industrial purposes and the settling of enterprises
of 760 acres (the “Ruestensieler – and Voslapper Groden”) located close to the Jade canal
and well connected to the hinterland infrastructure.
2. Infrastructure
The intermodal infrastructure of the region represents primary criteria in choice of
harbour, as it will determine the “ability to move between different modes of transport
(ship/truck/train) with minimal disruption to the speed of through-transit”
JadeWeserPortFairway widening
1,700 m
Potential LandReclamation
Reclaimed Land:
460 ha
Pre-planned industrial area:
400 ha
1,400 m
4,100 m
Motorway
38
(Stopford,1997). Hence it is essential to examine the port’s infrastructure connectivity as
it will have to accommodate around 30 % of the handling volume (Jung and Pohl, 2001).
(Please see appendix 5 for transport zones and modes)
Exhibit 5: Infrastructure Connectivity
Source: INEOS, 2001
Wilhelmshaven and Friesland are well connected to the hinterland’s motorway
infrastructure from North to South via the A 29, leaving little room for possible
congestion. The motorway leads to the area of the harbour, and after few future
extensions directly into the container terminal. But as the exhibit demonstrates, the
39
connection from east to west is not satisfactory. Even though the realisation of the Weser
Tunnel in 2005 might improve the situation, further actions need to be taken.
The existing rail infrastructure on the other hand poses a risk of congestion due to its low
speed and capacity. Furthermore, air transportation is a primary precondition not only for
transportation of cargo, but also staff, visitors and business people. Currently, the closest
international airport is situated in Bremen, about a two-hour drive from Wilhelmshaven,
making it more difficult to be in instant reach of Wilhelmshaven and the port.
Another crucial aspect is the lack of adequate infrastructure for the inland water
navigation. Although in existence, it does not comply with present technical standards.
This significantly shapes the strategy adapted for the Jade-Weser Port which will
emphasise on mega carriers and feeder services.
Nevertheless, overall the prerequisites in terms of infrastructure of region are relatively
well fulfilled.
3. Population & Labour Force
The structural weaknesses of the region can be observed by its extreme low density and
uneven distribution of the population, with little growth and a low GDP income per
capita. In regard to the labour force, a very high level of unemployment (10.9 %) persists,
which is even higher Wilhelmshaven. (Please see appendix 6 for details).
40
4. Economic Structure
An interesting observation in relation to the port is that, despite producing industry being
the greatest contributor to the regional GDP with 27 % (Please see Appendix 7 & 8) the
largest employment is generated within the processing industry, in which the chemical
and energy (petroleum) industries are strongly represented. Hence the development and
future growth prospects of these industries appear to be significant.
Putting the commodities trade into a global context, we can conclude another interesting
fact: of the tonnage of sea borne trade almost 50 % is associated with the energy industry,
confirming the above stated observation (Please see Appendix 9).
Investigating the service industry, industry sectors such as transportation, trade, financial
services and business-related services are represented weakly and have not been
developing much in the resent years. This will be of importance when identifying the
impacts of the port.
5. Future Development of the Industries
Concluding this chapter, we will briefly examine the estimated development in the
production and exportation of the different industry sectors. This will be of significance
when looking at the statistical forecasting for future development in context to the port in
41
which especially the chemical industry is regarded with high growth prospects and as
export-intensive (Please see table 10 for industry growth prospects and export-intensity).
The role and importance of the chemical industry come into weighting within the next
chapter.
However the most important issue is, that the regional economy cannot provide a
substantial goods for exportation this far (HANSA, 1999). This will significantly shape
not only the argumentation but also the intended strategic direction of the port.
42
CHAPTER VI: ARGUMENTS IN FAVOUR OF THE PORT
This chapter will illustrate all data collected supporting the construction of the container
terminal, the projected direct and indirect benefits as well as the underlying rationale. In
order to comprehend the significance of the Jade-Weser Port Project, it is essential to not
only comprehend the economic importance of the shipping industry, but also the
underlying rationale, the driving factors and hence arguments in favour of the project.
1. Economic Significance of the Shipping Industry
According to Stopford, shipping is one of the world’s most international industries. He
describes sea borne trade as being “the apex of world economic activity”, as global
events have a direct impact on the shipping industry (as for example a price change in oil,
the nuclear disaster in Russia, political conflicts regarding the Suez Canal in the 1950’ies
and 1960’ies).
Furthermore, its strategic value should not be underestimated, i.e. regarding the maritime
industry acting as a vehicle for growth of trade in the OECD countries. Therefore a two-
way link exists and interaction between developments in the shipping industry and
developments in the world economy. The transport industry is one of the prime forces
shaping the global economy of today (a shift away from the exclusively national system),
(Stopford, 1997).
Looking at the role of sea borne trade in economic development, Adam Smith regarded
shipping as one of the key factors of economic growth, in which shipping represents a
CHAPTER VI: ARGUMENTS IN FAVOUR OF THE PORT
43
cheap and volume-efficient way of transportation for the opening up of wider markets.
(Smith, 1986).
Even though technology long after Adam Smith has provided efficient inland
transportation networks, shipping technology has also improved considerably and helped
to create a global market for both manufactures and raw materials (Stopford, 1997).
Exhibit 6: The Development of GDP and Container Shipping in the EU since 1985
Source: Feasibility Study, 1999
The figure below confirms a clear linkage between world GDP and container shipping, in
which world economy generated most of the demand for sea transport. Accordingly this,
the medium to long-term estimations of growth have been calculated, projecting the
stable and positive development that can be further transferred to a global level
(Feasibility study, 1999). The following section will continue the argument of the growth
in container shipping.
19851986
19871988
19891990
19911992
19931994
19961997
19981995
40.000
35.000
30.000
25.000
20.000
15.000
TEU ‘ 1000
140
130
120
110
100
GDP Index1985 = 100
Container volume
GDP
19851986
19871988
19891990
19911992
19931994
19961997
19981995
40.000
35.000
30.000
25.000
20.000
15.000
TEU ‘ 1000
140
130
120
110
100
GDP Index1985 = 100
Container volume
GDP
44
2. The Demand Side: Growth in overseas Container Traffic
According to the Institute of Shipping Economic and Logistics the world-wide container
traffic has been statistically forecasted to grow at 7 % p.a. until 2005, and thereafter by
6.5 % p.a. This means that only within the next ten years the overall handling volume
will accordingly increase by a 100 % until the year 2020. The PLANCO report has used a
more cautious approach for the estimation of container traffic within the North Range
itself:
Exhibit 7: Forecasted Growth of Demand for Container Shipping in Northern Europe until 2015
Source: PLANCO, 2000
It is argued that this growth trend will persist regardless of local economic recessions
(Ports of Niedersachsen, 2002). This statement however is questionable if we take
Stopford’s view of the interaction between the maritime industry and the world economy
into account.
2000 2006 2010 2015
Growth rate 4.7 % Until 2006;
3.8 % thereafter
Growth rate5 %
39,227
39,906
45,538
48,506
54,873
61,907
29,778
29,778
2000 2006 2010 2015
Growth rate 4.7 % Until 2006;
3.8 % thereafter
Growth rate5 %
39,227
39,906
45,538
48,506
54,873
61,907
29,778
29,778
45
Nevertheless, relating the demand with the planned capacity provision for the North
Range, PLANCO suggests that independently from the extent of excess demand,
significant market share can be gained.
The following table includes a 25% increased buffer zone, in order to ensure the
provision of the needed capacity at least three years in advance.
Exhibit 8: Forecasted Capacity of selected North-range ports until 2015 – in 1,000
TEU p.a.
Source: PLANCO, 2000
This table demonstrates that the German seaports should be able to benefit from the
growth projections if the necessary capacity and intermodal infrastructure is being
provided, fulfilling the technological demands.
Taking into account that Hamburg and Bremerhaven, despite further planned extension
measures, will not be able to cope with this volume, the establishment of the Jade-Weser-
Port appears to be essential in order for the German seaport to meet these growth
Present Capacity
Hamburg 4,500
Planned Capacity2006
Planned Capacity2015
2,600 8,500
Bremerhaven 3,000 800 6,000
Rotterdam 7,500 1,800 12,700
Antwerp 3,550 2,000 8,500
Zeebruegge 800 600 1,600
Amsterdam 250 950 1,200
Vlissingen 0 1,000 1,000
Le Havre 1,400 1,100 2,900
UK ports 5,300 8,500
Total 26,300 10,850 50,900
Present Capacity
Hamburg 4,500
Planned Capacity2006
Planned Capacity2015
2,600 8,500
Bremerhaven 3,000 800 6,000
Rotterdam 7,500 1,800 12,700
Antwerp 3,550 2,000 8,500
Zeebruegge 800 600 1,600
Amsterdam 250 950 1,200
Vlissingen 0 1,000 1,000
Le Havre 1,400 1,100 2,900
UK ports 5,300 8,500
Total 26,300 10,850 50,900
46
projections (Feasibility study, 1999). This will be discussed within the overall
competitive advantage.
To conclude a new German deep-water port should be operational latest in 2010 in order
to substantially gain market shares or prevents loss of market share (PLANCO, 2000).
This leads us to the argument dealing with the competitive constellation of the German
seaports.
3. Overall Competitive Advantage
An important argument in favour the Jade-Weser Port can be derived when examining
the overall competitive situation of the German Ports. According to the OSC and ISL, it
appears that there is going to be significant loss of market share to the Western Ports, as
illustrated in the following table:
Exhibit 9: Planned Capacity in mill. TEU – % Market share
Source: OSC, ISL 1999, Simonsen, 2001
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 20041998 2005
GermanPorts
6.4 6.9 7.3 7.9 8.2 8.8 8.8 8.8
% 30.0 30.3 30.6 29.0 27.7 27.7 27.7
WesternPorts
14.6 14.7 16.7 17.8 20.0 22.8 22.8 23.7
% 70.0 68.2 69.7 69.4 71.0 72.3 72.3 73.0
North RangeIn Total 21.0 21.6 24.0 25.7 28.2 31.6 31.6 32.5
% 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0
31,8
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 20041998 2005
GermanPorts
6.4 6.9 7.3 7.9 8.2 8.8 8.8 8.8
% 30.0 30.3 30.6 29.0 27.7 27.7 27.7
WesternPorts
14.6 14.7 16.7 17.8 20.0 22.8 22.8 23.7
% 70.0 68.2 69.7 69.4 71.0 72.3 72.3 73.0
North RangeIn Total 21.0 21.6 24.0 25.7 28.2 31.6 31.6 32.5
% 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0
31,8
47
The establishment of a deep-water container terminal in Wilhelmshaven might therefore
counteract this trend, ensuring long-term participation in the growing container market in
North-Western Europe and further fortify not only the Jade-Weser Region, but also the
entire range of German Ports. Therefore the German seaports altogether should be able to
gain significant long-term competitiveness against the strong position of the Western
Ports such as the deep-water port of Rotterdam.
4. Economics of Container Vessel Sizes
The German Ministry of Transportation has identified one important trend. The
increasing vessel size (the so-called “Suez-Max” up to 12,000 TEU) according to the
current merchant fleet and the order book development (Please see Appendix 11). This
trend can be explained by economies of scale, the relationship between cost and ship size.
Bigger ships reduce the unit freight cost.
Exhibit 10: Cost – Differences on a Asia – Europe Route in $ US*
*Prices 1998Source: PLANCO, 2000
70 % 80 % 90 %
58,17 25,45 0
65,16 31,52 5,35
73,63 38,88 11,85
85,29 49,19 21,11
98,80 60,95 31,52
80,38 49,19
67,06
TEU
12,000
11,000
10,000
9,000
8,000
7,000
6,000
Ship size Capacity exploitation
70 % 80 % 90 %
58,17 25,45 0
65,16 31,52 5,35
73,63 38,88 11,85
85,29 49,19 21,11
98,80 60,95 31,52
80,38 49,19
67,06
TEU
12,000
11,000
10,000
9,000
8,000
7,000
6,000
Ship size Capacity exploitation
48
This trend is placing new demands on seaports, as they require deeper water for the tide-
dependent carriers to approach and departure effectively. Despite further deepening
measures at the Lower Elbe and Outer Weser, the German seaports so far are not able to
provide the necessary conditions to accommodate these large carriers, creating a potential
market niche for Wilhelmshaven (Ports of Niedersachsen, 2002). (Please see appendix 12
for ship size dimensions, definitions and load factors).
Wilhelmshaven fulfils all prerequisites for a deepwater terminal due to its excellent
natural seaward position (natural depth of 16m) and ample room for expansion measures
(PLANCO, 2000).
According to Lloyds Register (PLANCO, 2000) the optimal vessel size is at around TEU
12,000 (Presently there is only one port in Europe (Rotterdam) that can accommodate
these large carriers. By the use of these carriers about $ 100m p.a. can be saved on
Europe-Asia routes, as their cost per slot are about 11% below those of a TEU 8,000
carrier. These advantages can only be exploited at a minimum capacity load of 79%
(PLANCO, 2000).
In regard to the ultra large carriers of TEU 12,000 – 18,000 (“Malacca-Max”) however
there is little expectations for these to arrive any time soon in the future (PLANCO,
2000), as even within the growing ship size there are not only limits of economies of
scale but also important technical barriers (i.e. a new expensive type of engine),
(Stopford, 97).
49
5. Projected Benefits
After investigating the arguments that support the construction of a deep-water terminal
in Wilhelmshaven, this section intends to identify benefits of the terminal would bring to
the local economy. In this regard, the investigation of the employment effects of the Jade-
Weser Port is an essential part of this report, underlining the rationale and regional
significance of this project. Employment benefits are always a central issue, as these
deliver a social justification for of the investment that might be involved to the public and
the taxpayers
5.1. Employment Benefits
The reader has to keep in mind, that with exception to the direct employment at the
terminal, the benefits merely constitute a projection and estimation that depend on the
development of the project, hence limiting the reliability of the following results.
5.1.1. Direct Employment Effects
Direct employment effects are those that are realised during the operation of the terminal
and include cargo handling, repair, control and administrative works. The estimations are
based on the targeted cargo handling volume of TEU 1.8 m during the first phase of the
project (as described in Chapter IV, section 3) and three different technologies that are
going to be applied. These calculations are probably the most accurate of all (Please see
50
appendix 13 for the technologies) and result in the projection of 900-1,100 employment
opportunities.
5.2.2. Indirect Employment Effects
The estimation of these employment effects is the most difficult one. It is impossible to
mathematically calculate the extent to which the port delivers economic impulses. In
order to reach the closest results the employment effects have been differentiated into two
sections and hence estimated in two different ways:
1. Relation of different industries to port activities using Bremerhaven as a
comparison
2. The potential benefits industries might draw from the presence of a new port,
using a comparison of economic structure of port-cities and non-port cities;
survey to 100 firms regarding their growth expectations
The results of the first point was the projected creation of around 700-1,000 jobs in
transportation and logistics and another 300-900 in wholesale depending on the
calculative basis used (technology on terminal) with the realisation of the first
construction phase (2013/2015).
The second investigation mostly confirms the results from above regarding the possible
employment effects, especially in transportation and wholesale. Furthermore it
51
demonstrates the lack of service industries, particularly within the finance sector. The
employment potential has been projected to around 800 jobs.
According to the statistics, oil industry, chemical industry, steel production and
processing as well as shipbuilding and aircraft production seem to prefer the location
around ports, displaying expansion opportunities. Within these the chemical industry
especially is characterised by growth potential (as mentioned in the analysis of the
region) leading to another 1,000 jobs.
The survey on expansion prospects of 100 firms has resulted in an estimation of another
300 jobs. However, as mentioned in the report, this result does not deserve a high rating,
as it was dependent on the personal point of view of the firms, thus leading to a lack of
objectivity and is not included in the results.
5. 3. Income Multiplier Impact
“The multiplier is a numeric value, greater than 1.0 (otherwise there would be no impact),
representing the ratio of the total impact, or the sum of the direct, indirect, and induced
impacts, to the initial or direct impact” (Horton, 1999).
The absence of any reliable input-output data of the Jade-Weser Region proposed the use
of other regional studies (Bremen and Hamburg) completed by the BAW and NIW,
estimating an income multiplier of 1.2. Therefore every single employment implies the
creation of another 0.2 jobs: 400-1,000 (Jung and Pohl, 2001).
52
The total employment benefits are displayed within the following exhibit.
Exhibit 11: Total Employment Benefits
Source: Jung and Pohl, 2000
5.2. State and Local Government Tax Revenues
As mentioned within the literature review, all financial data within the feasibility study is
restricted. Numerous attempts to obtain information from the Jade-Weser Port
Development Corporation responsible for the negotiation of the port tax rates were
fruitless. For these reasons this section will be brief.
Nevertheless, according to the executive summary of the feasibility study the Jade-Weser
Port is projected to create employment benefits that should generate a yearly fiscal
benefit of up to DM 48m (around Euro 24m) for Lower Saxony. Assuming that little tax
revenues will be derived from value-added activities, the largest part of these benefits
should account for personal and corporate income tax. Additional benefits are going to be
Operation of the Terminal 900 – 1,100
Transportation & Logistics 700 – 1,000
Wholesale 300 - 900
Other Services 0 - 800
Chemical Industry 0 - 1000
Total 1,900 – 4,800
Income Multiplier 380 - 960
Total Employment 2,280 – 5,760
Operation of the Terminal 900 – 1,100
Transportation & Logistics 700 – 1,000
Wholesale 300 - 900
Other Services 0 - 800
Chemical Industry 0 - 1000
Total 1,900 – 4,800
Income Multiplier 380 - 960
Total Employment 2,280 – 5,760
53
derived in form of fees and rents of DM 20m (around Euro 10m), (Feasibility study,
1999).
It is furthermore of interest to examine how much tax revenues from the estimated Euro
24m are generated through the port activities alone. As the information is restricted, it has
been decided to take Bremerhaven’s container terminal as a comparable example. The
container handling at Bremerhaven’s in 1999 has accounted for TEU 2.18m which
represents an increase of 20.2 % to the proceeding year (Bremer Logistic Group, 1999).
Their amount of container through-put is relatively close to the TEU 1.8m expected to be
handled at Wilhelmshaven at the end of the first phase. The business report of the Bremer
Logistic Corporation (BLG – operator of the container terminal at Bremerhaven) revealed
a corporate income tax of DM 1.575m and additional tax expenses of DM 3.304m.
5.3. Snowball Effect in the Chemical Industry
The construction of the deep-water terminal will cut through the operation of the chlorine
pipeline that currently supplies the chemical plant operated by INEOS Chlor Atlantik
GmbH and located at Voslapper Groden. This stimulates the re-location and
modernisation of production facilities, attracting additional investments (around 250
million Euro) and creating 200 employment opportunities (Jung and Pohl, 2001). This
capacity extension furthermore implies the chances for other snowball effects:
54
Ø An augmented production of chlorine requires a proportional increase of the local
provision of PVC. So far unfinished chemical products have been imported at very
high costs. An increased production of chlorine and PCV would therefore enable the
chemical industry to improve their bargaining power (especially regarding the
chemical ethylene, which is very expensive) and perhaps even justify producing these
chemicals themselves (Interview Harms, 2002).
Ø The increased demand for ethylene requires a direct connection to the supplying plant
(cracker) via a new pipeline (for ethylene and propylene), which would offer a more
economic supply of these raw materials. The technical, legal and financial aspects for
the pipe-line have been cleared resulting in approximately 90 million Euros to be
invested in the construction of this 380 km long pipeline (Wilhelmshavener Zeitung,
2001, “Chemie-pipe-line project steht” ) which should be ready in 2003 (Peters, 2000,
“Wilhelmshavens neue Chance als Chemie-Standort).
Ø The option to build such a cracker at site (with an investment of around 740 million
Euros), (Jung and Pohl, 2001) planned by ICI implies the creation of another 250 jobs
(Wilhelmshavener Zeitung, 2000 “Wilhelmshaven im Zentrum eines umfassenden
Pipe-line Netzes).
Ø Furthermore, the chemical centre would create employment through contracting firms
carrying out the necessary maintenance and repairs. Around 5% of the initial
investment in this chemical centre can be allocated to these services (Jung and Pool,
2001).
Ø This industrial centre could give rise to the settlement of further processing industries
(as for example the automobile, information, or the packaging industry) that depend
55
on the exportation of their products and thus could require the services of a container
terminal.
Taking into account the development perspectives of the different industry groups (please
see Chapter V, section 5), it is apparent that the German chemical industry has been one
of the fastest-growing industries, 5.3% to the prior year (Jung and Pohl, 2001), noting a
turnover of 6.6 billion Euro in the year 2000 (Wilhelmshavener Zeitung, 2001, “Projekt
Chemie-Pipeline: Ein gutes Stueck vorangekommen”). Due to the immense investment
potential and the high proportion destined for exportation, the chemical industry in
Wilhelmshaven is relatively significant, especially when taking into account the small
local export capacity (Hansa, 1999).
Without the impulse given by the new terminal there is a risk that the chemical industry
will decrease its presence in Wilhelmshaven and begin to withdraw parts of its
production facilities (Jung and Pohl, 2001).
To conclude, the argument favouring the port is that it would act as an initiator for the
creation of a chemical industrial centre, allowing for a competitive strengthening of the
chemical industry at Wilhelmshaven; hence promoting economic growth (Jung and Pohl,
2001). The interdependency of the port and chemical industry should push the
construction of the deep-water terminal forward (Schmid, 2001).
56
CHAPTER VII: ARGUMENTS AGAINST THE PORT
1. Economics of Vessel Size
“The world is not designed for liners of the emerging dimensions.”
R.G. McLellan, P&O (Deecke,1998)
The trend towards greater vessel size has served as a main argument for the construction
of a deep-water terminal at Wilhelmshaven. As the port’s strategy concentrates on the
arrival of large carriers with capacities over TEU 8,000, it is necessary to briefly analyse
the economic viability of these mega carriers.
The rationale for economies of scale in larger vessels is that they have a lower energy
consumption per unit of volume/ weight. Further savings can be gained in maintenance,
insurance, and labour cost. Furthermore the larger vessels naturally imply fewer
departures but necessitate longer loading and unloading times.
Looking at the cost structure (please see following exhibit) it can be observed that the
port costs (in terms of port fees and service charges) represent a main part of the total
cost block, which again might erode the cost-advantage gained in ship size. Thus it can
generally be said that transport costs are decreasing with larger vessel size but storage
and handling cost are increasing.
CHAPTER VII: ARGUMENTS AGAINST THE PORT
57
Exhibit 12: General Cost Classification
Source: Stopford, 1997
However, according to a study carried out by the university of Delft (Jansen, 2001) the
benefits of economies of scale are eroding with large carriers such as the “Malacca-Max”
due to handling problems and logistics, undermining their viability. This is supported by
a study of MERC in Rotterdam (Maritiem Economisch Research Institut), stating that
cost advantages already begin to decrease at TEU 9,000 ((Deecke,1998). These two
reports contradicts the results of the PLANCO report.
Operating Operating Cost Cost
$ 2.0m.p.a. $ 2.0m.p.a.
Periodic Periodic Maintenance Maintenance $ 0.3m.p.a. $ 0.3m.p.a.
Voyage Cost Voyage Cost $ 3.1m.p.a. $ 3.1m.p.a.
Capital costs Capital costs $ 3.4m.p.a. $ 3.4m.p.a.
Manning cost 32 %
Stores & Lubricants 11%
Repairs/ Maintenance 16%
Insurance 30 %
Administration 12 %
Fuel Oil 47%
Diesel oil 7%
Port cost 46%
Interest/ dividend X %
Debt repayment X %
Operating Operating Cost Cost
$ 2.0m.p.a. $ 2.0m.p.a.
Periodic Periodic Maintenance Maintenance $ 0.3m.p.a. $ 0.3m.p.a.
Voyage Cost Voyage Cost $ 3.1m.p.a. $ 3.1m.p.a.
Capital costs Capital costs $ 3.4m.p.a. $ 3.4m.p.a.
Manning cost 32 %
Stores & Lubricants 11%
Repairs/ Maintenance 16%
Insurance 30 %
Administration 12 %
Fuel Oil 47%
Diesel oil 7%
Port cost 46%
Interest/ dividend X %
Debt repayment X %
58
Furthermore, the growth of ships is not unlimited, but constrained by technical,
organisational, environmental and geographical factors. Large carriers will be more
restricted and less flexible as they can not be employed on all routes, but mainly on
Europe – East Asia routes or to the Scandinavian countries. The Mallaca-Max for
instance would not be able to pass the Suez-Canal.
Furthermore the maximum load factor of a TEU 12,000 carrier is 70% in order to
approach Hamburg or Bremen, due to depth restrictions. But according to PLANCO the
ship must have a load factor of 79% to exploit the cost-advantage over smaller carriers. It
is thus questionable whether these large carriers can be fully utilised to obtain cost-
advantages.
The cost-advantages additionally have to be confronted with the macroeconomic costs
that will emerge by the undertaking of deepening measures at the rivers and canals (i.e.
Unter-Elbe or Aussenweser in Germany). In this context, the feasibility of container
shipping with larger carriers might not be given (Deecke, 1998).
Another aspect is that the use of large carriers implies an increased threat of over-
capacity at ports, originally caused by seasonality effects and different cargo volumes
flows (back and forth) but even further enhanced by the increased substitution of smaller
ships with large ones (Deecke, 1998).
Despite great interest of many shipping companies there are yet no order bookings for
these ultra-large carriers yet, confirmed by the questionnaire addressing shipping
59
companies, carried out by PLANCO (PLANCO, 2000). Hence, by counting on the arrival
of the Suez-Max carriers the Jade-Weser Port strategy involves a risk, which is even
greater taking into account, that the region has no local export capacity despite the
existing imports accounted for by the chemical and petroleum industry (HANSA, 1999).
2. Demand – Side and Forecasting
“To be realistic, forecasting has a poor reputation in maritime cycles”
(Stopford, 1997)
Having looked at the demand for container shipping in the context of world economic
growth in and capacity restraints of the competing German ports, the result had been the
possible loss of competitiveness and hence an argument for the construction of a deep-
water terminal at Wilhelmshaven. Therefore this chain of argumentation is entirely based
on the forecasting of world GDP and the related growth in container shipping. The
question of accuracy arises.
Forecasting in the shipping and shipbuilding industries are not as reliable as often taken
for. Some forecasts have proven themselves to be completely wrong and others were
right, but only after the combination of a series of “wildly inaccurate assumptions”
(Stopford, 1997).
60
As an example, in 1980 the forecast predicted 50 % more demand in 1986 than the 1982
forecast, which as well proved to be too optimistic. Stopford has illustrated that some
experts have progressively changed their views completely on the future over a period of
six years (1975-1995). The Jade-Weser Port is intended to be operational in 2007.
Therefore how will the forecasts have changed until then? Can the stakeholders base such
an important decision, an immense investment of this scope to a great extent on
forecasting?
Nevertheless, forecasting should not define certainties, but rather help the decision-
makers to anticipate future risks. If the forecasting has contributed to the improvement of
the quality of the decision-making, it might have added some value. This however,
remains to be proven until long after the start of the operation of the Jade-Weser Port.
3. Employment Benefits
Taking the high regional unemployment rate existing within the region, the issue of
projected employment benefits is crucial and in the interest of the decision-makers and
population. An argument counter-acting the positive benefits described is that the port
will not bring sufficient employment that justify the investment and the sacrifices made
on other grounds (environmental – as will be illustrated later on).
A project of such scope automatically involves the advertisement on an EU-wide scale,
which implies that the workforce needed, i.e. during the construction phase will not
61
necessarily be derived from the region itself. This brings out the question of who the
beneficiaries are, namely not the presently unemployed, but the future generations.
Container handling can not be described as a contributor to employment creation within
the port industry (Deecke, 1998). Taking Bremerhaven as a comparison, only 63
employees are currently operating the terminal (Berger, 2001). Thus the increase in
container shipping does not have a positive effect on the employment situation in Bremen
due to constant rationalisation of the container handling process and increased
automation technology (Jung and Pohl, 2001). The Jade-Weser Port will be the most
modern in Europe, as it will be built with the newest technology available. The 900-1,100
employment projected at the Jade-Weser Port therefore seem a little high.
As illustrated (in Chapter IV, section 4), Wilhelmshaven has not been able to greatly
develop its service industry so far. For these reasons it is likely that all the administrative
work for the Jade-Weser Port, including shipping companies, agents, banking and
insurance will be carried out in Bremen. Therefore Wilhelmshaven and the region might
not immediately benefit from these services.
62
4. Environmental Impact
This section aims to identify possible environmental effects resulting from the realisation
of the port. Subject of this investigation is the geographical area surrounding the Jade.
4.1. The Construction Phase
The first environmental disturbance will be caused during the terminal construction.
Without doubt, the excavation in front of the future quay and the reclamation of land
represent a major disruption into the natural environment.
Furthermore disturbances will be caused in form of noise and the emission of harmful
substances. These affect humans, flora and fauna; i.e. seals and could last even until after
the realisation of the project. Looking at the animal life, the actual breeding habitat of the
seals will not be endangered nor directly influenced, as it is located about 2 km away.
The major areas dominantly inhabited by birds are as well relatively far from the
construction site.
More concern arises from the possible noise emission in the living areas located at the
edge of the port. These however are subject to the general protectionist regulations
(Allgemeine Verwaltungsvorschrift zum Schutz gegen Baulaerm –AVV Baulaerm) and
are thus technically controlled.
63
In conclusion, the emission of harmful substances is not going to have significant adverse
effects due to a relatively far distance and high rate of air movement (Feasibility study,
1999).
Without doubt, the greatest environmental damage will be found on the maritime side.
The reclamation of land represents an instant loss of the under-water habitat, that had
been important for a variety of plankton (fish species and seals are not affected).
4.2. Voslapper Groden
The area of Voslapper Groden will also undergo a substantial transformation. Reclaimed
around 30 years ago, flora, fauna and especially birds have re- settled, given it back its
touch of wildlife and are regarded as extremely precious.
The land reclamation for the terminal will lead to the disappearance of part of the coast
side (Genius Strand) at Voslapper Groden, causing much public upheaval. That is only
sensible, as this beach has served as a traditional holiday location for the local residents
over the last thirty years. Hence, the loss on this side is hence more of an emotional
nature and difficult to quantify. However, this permanent change also involves the loss of
around 20.000 daily tourists (Feasibility study, 1999) and might have implications for
tourism and recreation at Wilhelmshaven.
Easier to estimate is the nuisance that will be caused by the construction of new
infrastructure, leading to an increased noise disturbance by the planned extension of the
64
A29 highway. The possibility of congestion however will be prevented, as the
construction material will be mainly supplied from the seaside.
With the operation of the terminal additional effects can be expected, that can mainly be
found in the context of additional sea traffic, container handling and the resulting
permanently increased traffic through rail and lorry traffic.
4.3. National Nature Park – ‘Nationalpark Wattenmeer’
The mud flats called the ‘Wattenmeer’ at the north-German coast a subject to national
and international protection laws. The National Nature Park (Niedersaechisches
Wattenmeer), surrounding the Jade has been protected for the past 16 years and
represents a unique habitat for a variety of animals and flora and fauna. As the Jade-
Weser Port will be as close as 3 km to the park, it has caused great concern that its
operation might disturb and endanger rare species. Even though there will be no direct
intervention into the national park, the surrounding environment will be affected
indirectly to a great extend on a permanent scale.
4.4. Environmental Feasibility
Nevertheless, the feasibility study came to the conclusion, that the overall environmental
sacrifices do not reach an extent that would question the feasibility and viability of the
project.
65
CHAPTER VIII: CONCLUSION
1. Importance of Sea-Borne Trade
The economic importance of the shipping industry cannot be questioned nor its role as a
growth facilitator during the history of the world economy and hence justify the
importance of ports in general. The estimation of annual fiscal benefits of Euro 24m to
Lower Saxony supports this perception.
2. The Demand-side
The examination of future growth in demand for container shipping has proven, that there
is significant market share to be gained. This implies that capacity and infrastructure have
to be created at the German Port front in order to ensure competitive strength against the
Western Ports. With an adequate long-term perspective the construction of this terminal
at Wilhelmshaven is rational. This is even the case taking into consideration the
insecurities given within the general forecasting of the shipping industry as the PLANCO
report has created three different demand scenarios to accommodate the different possible
growth trends and relied on the moderate version.
CHAPTER VIII: CONCLUSION
66
3. The Ship Size
The most significant weakness lies within the uncertain economic viability of large mega-
carriers above TEU 12,000. Next to technical barriers, the use of these ships involve
many other complications such as increasing landside costs and longer loading times,
potentially endangering the prior cost-advantage given through economies of scale.
Nevertheless being the newest, fastest and most modern port in Europe, the chances to
exploit economies of scale by providing the technology and effective logistical systems
are relatively good.
4. The Employment Benefits
As employment benefits represent the social justification for parts of the investment
burdened on local taxpayers, it remains very important. In regard to the projected
employment benefits during the construction phase, it has been argued that they will not
be entirely directed towards the region due to the fact that this project will be advertised
on an E.U.-wide scale.
Furthermore, jobs would be fairly low-skilled and in comparison to Bremerhaven, the
possibility that these will also at some stage be subject to further automation and
rationalisation measures decreases the viability of the employment argument.
67
Nevertheless, this does not automatically render the port project ‘useless’. The key point
here is, that there should not only be a focus on the direct employment benefits, but rather
on the long-term regional development perspectives. In this context the port could initiate
and accelerate a growth chain-reaction of activities as stated within this report, especially
regarding the large investments in the local chemical industry. In other words, what
counts is the long-term perspective.
Hence, in the short-term the regional population might not directly benefit to such a great
extent. But the region itself might encounter its own dynamism accounting for future
economic growth, while bringing prosperity and ensuring benefits for the following
generations in the long run.
5. The Cost of Economic Growth – Cost of the Port
The costs of economic growth appear mainly in form of the environmental implications.
Even though the studies have illustrated the environmental feasibility, the sacrifices made
on these grounds and the change in landscape are irreversible. For the population at
Voslapper Groden, the terminal implies a significant loss in quality of life (pollution and
environmental beauty) being located so closely to the port.
The difficulty here lies within the definition of the extent to which environmental losses
can be justified by the worthwhile benefits it would bring to humans? This dilemma is
present when it comes to deciding what priority to follow, profitability and employment
68
or environment. Compensations will be difficult to quantify and can only be observed in
time.
6. The Port’s Competitive Strategy
As the Wilhelmshaven port strategy is going to focus on mega-carriers, which only a
limited number of ports can currently accommodate, a certain risk is involved. Not only
due to the dependency on these large ships but also as the region so far does not provide
significant export capacity. In combination with the consolidated position of
neighbouring ports, the limited transportation infrastructure into the hinterland (rivers and
canals) does enforce limits on the port’s strategy. Their strategy will be concentrating on
container handling and feeder services rather than traditional exportation and importation
of commercial goods to and from the hinterland. The feeder services into the Northern
and Eastern sea would represent a cost-effective alternative to other ports. Nevertheless,
the prospects of these large ships becoming reality are relatively good, and then
Wilhelmshaven will be able to further cover this particular market niche of the
transportation industry.
Therefore Wilhelmshaven should seriously exploit this potential market niche. There
exists no logical reason why Wilhelmshaven should not build on its unique features given
by the unparalleled depth advantage, the immense potential provision of land area, the
relatively unexploited infrastructure and thereby improve the weak structural and
economic constellation of the Jade-Weser Region. The mentioned advantages, combined
with the fact of the Jade-Weser Port being equipped with the newest technology, do
69
provide a great competitive advantage and a possibility for the port to gain significant
market share and benefit from the growth projections. Their improved situation will also
benefit the neighbouring harbours (Hamburg, Bremen), as they will form a stronger front
against the Western Ports.
7. The Jade-Weser Port strives to become a Multi-Port
Transhipment of cargo does not involve significant value-creation within the hinterland.
However, central issue is the prospect of developing industries and structures parallel to
the port activities. There is no significant reason why the port-related services (such as
logistics, management and control) should not eventually settle in Wilhelmshaven as well
as the relevant shipping agents or insurance businesses. These will generate a crucial part
of the employment benefits.
In addition, the port is likely to target foreign businesses (i.e. from South-East Asia),
which export to the European Union. As the general nature of their products could imply
the need to compete on price (i.e. automobile industry), Asian business will intend to
avoid import taxes by ensuring a 40% value-creation on E.U. territory.
Therefore the port will gain in importance with the arrival of commerce and business in a
long-term prospect, which in turn will provide the essential value creation. From that
stage the possibility is given for the Jade-Weser Port to develop into a full range harbour
enterprise: a multiport.
70
CHAPTER IX: RECOMMENDATIONS
1. Infrastructure
Ø Improvement of the East – West connection: to be delivered with the completion of
the A22 (coastal motorway).
Ø As the construction of the A22 might not completed by the time the port is
operational, other road infrastructure should be considered (“Bundesstrassen”)
Ø Efficiency and speed of rail infrastructure have to be increased drastically through a
refurbishment and electrification at the estimated cost of around Euro 175m (Roland
Berger, 2000)
Ø To improve air connectivity for cargo and persons the option to use the Up-Jever
Airport should be closely investigated and confirmed through a feasibility study,
ensuring enough handling volume (originally used for military pilot training – thus
need to claim right for civil use)
Ø The aspect of inland waterway transportation so far is not clear and needs to be taken
into consideration in the near future.
2. Attraction of new Businesses
Ø As port-related industry and trade are of special interest to the stakeholders, the
designated areas have to be assigned adequately and be of high quality
CHAPTER IX: RECOMMENDATIONS
71
Ø A joint marketing initiative by the different districts and towns, attractive
development programmes and incentive measures should be considered
Ø Strong efforts should be given into marketing the port in South-East Asia
3. Employment
Ø In regard to the projected employment benefits, the necessary conditions have to be
fulfilled in a regionally co-ordinated manner
Ø This includes educational aspects such as training or the development of a settlement
concept in order to work out and stretch indirect employment prospects
Ø Close co-operation with employee representatives of significant industry sectors such
as the IG Metall (Gegenwind, 2001 “Effekte und Konzepte”)
Ø Ensure satisfactory employment conditions and tariffs
Ø Development of concepts to increase Wilhelmshavens living standards and quality in
order to attract qualified work-force
4. Tourism
The tourism industry is a part of the local economy with significant prospects. This
industry probably reacts very sensitively to changes in the environment due to gas
emissions, additional traffic or the presence of new industrial facilities.
72
Ø A new tourism concept should be developed, marketing the port as an attraction (port
tours)
Ø An intense strategic emphasis on recreation (exploiting climatic advantages of the
region – spas), clearly differentiating from the competing Eastern coast
Ø Compensation of coastal parts lost for tourism (Voslapper Groden) if possible close to
Wilhelmshaven
Ø Modernisation and capacity extension of existing accommodations (camping)
Ø Ensure that shipping will avoid coastal areas intensively used for leisure activities
73
BIBLIOGRAPHY
1. PRIMARY:
Interviews
§ Bauermeister, L. (08.01.), Wilhelmshaven, Managing Director - Employers
Association North West Germany
§ Frank, W. (08.01.2001), Wilhelmshaven, First Secretary – Wilhelmshaven City
Authority/ Mayoralty
§ Freese, H. (11.01.2002), Wilhelmshaven, Public Relations – Anti-port (Buerger
gegen den Jade-Weser Port)
§ Harms, K. (03.01.2002), Jever, Vice President – Oldenburg Chamber of Industry and
Commerce
§ Kramer, H.P. (09.01.2002), Wilhelmshaven, Board of Supervisors – Economic
Development Corporation; Managing Director - INEOS Chlor Atlantik GmbH
§ Oltmanns, K. (03.01.2002), Jever, Managing Director - Jade Weser Airport GmbH
§ Simonsen, H.D. (09.01), Jever, author of ‘Mit dem Jade-Weser Port die Zukunft
gewinnen’ (Accomplishing the Future with the Jade-Weser Port)
§ Tjaden, J. (11.01.2002), Wilhelmshaven. Public Relations – Anti-port (Buerger gegen
den Jade-Weser Port)
BIBLIOGRAPHY
74
SECONDARY
Books:
§ Beck, D., Fischer, S., Dornbusch, R. (1995) “Economics”, (5th Edition), Berkshire,
McGraw-Hill Book Company Europe
§ Hardwick, P., Khan, B., Langmead, J. (1990) “An Introduction to Modern
Economics”, (3rd Edition), Longman Group UK Limited
§ Glatthorn, A.A. (1998) “Writing the Winning Dissertation”, California, Corwin Press,
Inc
§ Kasliwal, P. (1995) “Development Economics”, Cincinnati, South-Western
Publishing
§ Mankiw, N.G. (1997) “Macroeconomics”, (3rd Edition), New York, Worth Publishers
Inc.
§ Perkins, G., Snodgrass, R. (1983) “Economics of Development”, (3rd Edition), New
York, W.W. Norton & Company Inc.
§ Saunders, M.., Lewis, P., Thornhill, A., “Research Methods for Business Students”,
(2nd Edition), Harlow, Prentice Hall
§ Simonsen, H.D. (2001) “Mit dem JadeWerserPort die Zukunft gewinnen”
(Accomplishing the Future with the Jade-Weser Port), Varel, CCV Centrum
Cartographie Verlag GmbH
§ Smith, A, (1986) “The Wealth of Nations I-III”, reprinted in Penguin Classics,
Bungay Suffolk
§ Stopford, M.. (1997) “Maritime Economics”, (2nd Edition), London, Routledge
§ Swetnam, D. (2000) “Writing Your Dissertation”, (3rd Edition), Oxford, How to
Books Ltd.
75
Reports
§ Bremer Logistic Group (1999) “Business Report”, Bremen
§ City of Wilhelmshaven (2001) “Statistik Wilhelmshaven” (Statistics of
Wilhelmshaven), volume I/01
§ City of Wilhemshaven (2001) “Statistik Wilhelmshaven“ (Statistics of
Wilhelmshaven), volume IV/01
§ Deecke, H. (1998) “Container; Seehafen und Oekologie” (Container, Seaport and
Ecology), Hamburg
§ Drewry Shipping Consultants LTD(1998) “Global Growth and Private Profit”, World
Container Terminals, UK
§ IBP Engineering (IBP), Institute for Shipping and Logistics (ISL), Port and Transport
Consulting Bremen GmbH (1999) “Feasibility Study for a Container and Multiport in
Wilhelmshaven”, Bremen
§ Institute of Shipping Economics and Logistics (ISL), (2000) “Shipping Statistics
Yearbook” , Bremen
§ Jansen, E.M. (2001) “Trend in Ship Size Development”, Delft University of
Technology, Delft
§ Jung, H.D., Lower Saxony Institute for Economic Development Research (NIW),
Pohl, M., Institute for Economic Development Research (BAW), (2001) “Economic
Development Prospects of the Jade-Weser Region, with special regard to the Jade-
Weser Port”, Hanover, Bremen
§ PLANCO Consulting GmbH ‘(2000) “Bedarfsanalyse fuer einen Tiefwasserhafen in
der Deutschen Bucht” (Analysis of demand for a German Deep-Water Port), Essen
§ Pohl, M. (2001) “Container-Tiefwasserhafen Jade-Weser Port”, Institute for
Economic Development Research, Heft 3/ March, Bremen
§ Roland Berger Consulting Group (2000) “Standortanalyse Tiefwasserhafen Deutsche
Bucht” (Comparative Development Study Jade-Weser Port Wilhelmshaven and Port
Cuxhaven), Hannover
76
Journals
§ Heinrich, M., Port of Hamburg (1999 “Port Efficiency-The Public-Private
Partnership”, World Port Development, Sovereign Publications, London UK
§ Blackstone, C., BMEC Ports & Terminal Groups (1999) “The Future of Port
Development and Construction”, World Port Development, Sovereign Publications,
London UK
§ Schiffahrts-Verlag ‘HANSA’ C.Schroedter & Co (1999) “Jadeport”, Special Edition,
volume 9, p.2-11
§ Kahlfeld, A. (2001) “Schiffahrt-Schiffbau-Hafen” (Shipping-shipbuilding-harbour),
Schiffahrts-Verlag ‘HANSA’ C.Schroedter & Co, volume 7, p.70-84
§ Wilhelmshavener Hafenwirtschaftvereinigung (1999) “JadePort News - How things
stand”, volume 3
§ Germanischer Loyd (2001) “Machbarkeit und Entwicklung zukuenftiger Mega
Containerschiffe” (Feasibility and development of future Mega Carriers), Schiff &
Hafen, volume 4
Newspaper Articles
§ Berger, M. (2001) “Im JDP ist hoechstens mit 75 Arbeitsplaetzen zu rechen” (Jade
Weser Port can only expect 75 employments), Wilhelmshavener Zeitung,
Wilhelmshaven, 27th of August
§ Peters, J. (2000) “Wilhelmshavens neue Chance als Chemie-Standort”
(Wilhelmshaven’s opportunity to become chemical industrial centre), Special Edition,
Wilhelmshavener Zeitung, Wilhelmshaven, p.49, 16th of December
§ Peters, J. (2001) “Fast 150 Millionen Tonnen umgeschlagen” (150m tons handled),
Wilhelmshavener Zeitung, Wilhelmshaven, 17th of January
§ Peters, J. (2001) “Jade-Weser Port: Gutachten sieht grosse Chancen” (Jade Weser
Port: Great opportunities), Wilhelmshavener Zeitung, Wilhelmshaven, 10th of August,
p.6
77
§ Peters, J. (2001) “Naechste Woche Vertrag ueber Chemie-Pipeline” (Agreement to be
signed the coming week), Wilhelmshavener Zeitung, Wilhelmshaven, 30th of August
§ Reiners, G. (2000) “Norddeutsche Chemie-Industrie plant Rohstoffverbund” (North
German Chemical industry plans raw material-alliance), Die Welt, 14th of September
§ Rheude, R. (2001) “Jade-Port: 5800 Arbeitsplaetze” (Jade-Port: 5800 Jobs)’, Nord-
West Zeitung’, Oldenburg, 10th of August
§ Rheude, R. (2001) “Friesland wird am staerksten profitieren” (Friesland will benefit
most), Nord-West Zeitung, Oldenburg, 10th of August
§ Rheude, R. (2001) “Er wird die Region veraendern” (It will precipitate a Regional
Transformation), Nord-West Zeitung, Oldenburg, 29th of August
§ Schmid, H.J. (2001) “Kramer: Weg zum Universalhafen” (Kramer: targeting to
become a multi-port), Wilhelmshavener Zeitung, Wilhelmshaven, 6th of December
§ Sietz, H. (2000) “Die Elefanten der Meere fordern vor allem mehr Tiefgang” (The
Giant Carriers requisite Depth), Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung, Frankfurt, 17th of
October 200, nr. 241, p. T1
§ Anzeiger fuer Harlingerland (2001) “Erstes Schiff soll im Jahr 2007 anlegen” (The
first ship will dock in 2007), Anzeiger fuer Harlingerland, Wittmund, 9th of
November
§ Anzeiger fuer Harlingerland (2001) “Grossrederei sucht schon Liegeplaetze”
(Shipping line is negotiating for pier access), Anzeiger fuer Harlingerland, Wittmund,
9th of November
§ Jeverisches Wochenblatt (2001) “Hafen als touristische Attraktion” (The port as a
tourist attraction), Jeverisches Wochenblatt, Jever, 10th of August
§ Nord-West Zeitung (2001) “Weiter Ringen um Chemie-Pipeline” (Further struggle
over Pipeline), Nord-West Zeitung, Oldenburg, 4th of September
§ Ostfriesen-Zeitung (2001) “Ganze Region setzt auf den Hafen” (The whole region
counts on the harbour), Ostfriesen-Zeitung, Wittmund, 9th of November
§ Wilhelmshavener Zeitung (2000) “Wilhelmshaven im Zentrum eines umfassenden
Chemiepipeline-Netzes”(Wilhelmshaven in the centre of a chemical pipeline
network), Wilhelmshavener Zeitung, Wilhelmshaven, 5th of December
78
§ Wilhelmshavener Zeitung (2001) “Chemie-Pipeline steht” (Pipeline construction
decided), Wilhelmshavener Zeitung, Wilhelmshaven, 5th of April
§ Wilhelmshavener Zeitung (2001) “Projekt Chemie-Pipeline: Ein gutes Stueck
vorangekommen” (Chemical pipeline project: good improvements), Wilhelmshavener
Zeitung, Wilhelmshaven, 13th of September
Internet
§ Horton, G.A. (1999) “Economic Impact Analysis – Glossary of Selected Terminology
relating to Input/ Output (I-O-) Models and Economic Impact Assessment“
Forecasting and Economic Impact Analysis, Nevada Division of Water Planning
(cited 4th of April 2002). Available from:
<URL:http://www.state.ns.us/cnr/ndwp/forecast/econ_pg6.htm
§ Link, A. (1996) “Economic Impact Assessments: Guidelines for Conducting and
Interpreting Assessment Studies”, University of North Carolina (cited 4th of April
2002). Available from: <URLhttp://edrgroup.com/pages/library_guides.html
§ International Association for Impact Assessment (cited 26th of March 2002).
Available from: <URL:http://www.iaia.org
§ Strauss-Wieder, Inc (2000) “Assessing the Regional Impacts of Transportation
Projects” (cited 21 of March 2002). Available from: <URL:http://www.as-w.com
§ South Carolina Ports (1997) “The 1997 Economic Impact Statement”(cited 26th of
March 2002). Available from: URL:http://www.port-of-
charleston.com/constituent/comminvolv/economic2.asp
§ A Stadium for a Century (1997) “Economic Impact Assessment” (cited 5th of April
2002). Available from:
<URL:http://www.irlgov.ie./taoiseach/sportstadium/feasibilitystudy/sect8.htm
§ Ports of Auckland (2000) “Bringing Prosperity to Auckland” (cited 26th of March
2002). Available from: <URL:http://www.poal.co.nz/about/economicimpact/htm
§ Babb, M. (1998) “European ports seek hinterland links – intermodal transportation”
(cited 21st of March 2002). Available from:
79
<URL:http://www.findarticles.com/cf_0/m0GZB/n9_37/21217838/p1/article.jhtml?te
rm=ports
§ Gooley, T.B. (1999) “Ports challenged to do more with less”, (cited 21st of March
2002). Available from:
<URL:http://www.findarticles.com/cf_0/m0GZB/7_38/55176308/p1/article.jhtm?ter
m=ports
§ Gooley, T.B. (2001) “Asian ports tight to keep ahead of game” (cited 21st of March
2002). Available from:
<URL:http://www.findarticles.com/cf_0/m0GZB/8_40/77825390/p1/article.jhtml?ter
m=ports
§ Brown, R. (1999), “European Ports Attract Chemical Investment”, (cited 21st of
March 2002). Available from:
<URL:http://www.findarticles.com/cf_0/m0FVP/21_256/57823128/p1/article.jhtml?t
erm=ports
§ Gegenwind (1999) “Masse statt Klasse” (Quantity instead of quality), (cited 29th of
April 2002). Available from <URL:http//www.gegenwind-whv.de/japo09.html
§ Gegenwind (1999) “Zum Wachstum verdammt” (Bound for growth), (cited 29th of
April 2002). Available from: <URL:http//www.gegenwind-whv.de/japo02.html
§ Gegenwind (2001) “Alle Voegel sind schon da” (Bird protection), (cited 29th of April
2002). Available from: <URL:http//www.gegenwind-whv.de/japo27.html
§ Gegenwind (2001) “Effekte und Konzepte” (Effects and Concepts), (cited 29th of
April 2002). Available from <URL:http//www.gegenwind-whv.de/japo38.html
§ Gegenwind (2001) “Fetisch Tiefwasserhafen” (Fetish Deep-water harbour), (cited
29th of April 2002). Available from: <URL:http//www.gegenwind-
whv.de/japo35.html
§ Gegenwind (2002) “JadeEuroport”, (cited 29th of April). Available from
<URL:http//www.gegenwind-whv.de/japo41.html
§ Bundesregierung (2002) “Maritime Wirtschaft” (cited 4th of April). Available from:
<URL:http://www.bundesregierung.de/dokumente/Artikel/ix_53749.htm
80
§ Anti-port – Buerger gegen den Jade-Weser Port (Citizens Initiative against the Jade-
Weser Port). (cited 15th of November 2002). Available from:
<URL:http://www.antiport.de
§ Department for Transport, Local Government and the Regions (2000), “Maritime
Statistics: United Kingdom” (cited 4th of April 2002). Available from:
<URL:http://www.transtat.dtlr.gov.uk/shipping/index.htm
§ Government of Lower Saxony (cited 5th of April). Available from:
<URL:http://www.niedersachsen.de
§ Institute of Ecosystem Studies (29th of April 2002). Available from
<URL:http://www.ecostudies.org
§ Jade Airport GmbH (cited 12th of December 2001). Available from:
<URL:http://www.jade-airport.de
§ Jade-Weser Port Development Corporation (cited 15th of November 2001) Available
from <URL:http://jade-weser-port.de
§ National Parks of Germany (cited 20th of February 2002). Available from:
<URL:http://www.nationalparke.net
§ Niedersaechisches Hafenamt Jade Weser (cited 5th of April 2002). Available from:
<URL:http://www.hafenamt-jade-weser.de
§ Oldenburg Chamber of Industry and Commerce (2001) “Wirtschaftsregion Statistik”
(Regional Statistics), (cited 3rd of April 2002). Available from:
<URL:http://www.ihk-oldenburg.de/wirtschaftregion/
§ Port of Hamburg (cited 11th of March 2002). Available from:
<URL:http://www.hafen-hamburg.de
§ Ports Harbours Marinas Worldwide (cited 10th of February 2002). Available from:
<URL:http://www.portfocus.com
§ Ports of Niedersachsen, (cited 11th of March 2002). Available from:
<URL:http://www.seaports.de
§ Port Promotion Agency Lower Saxony (cited 11th of March). Available from:
<URL:http://www.port-promotion.de
81
§ Port of Wilhelmshaven (cited 10th of February 2002). Available from:
www.wilhelmshaven-port.de
§ Seaports of Bremen and Bremerhafen (cited 13th of December 2001). Available from:
<URL:http://www.bremen-ports.de
§ Wirtschaft in Wilhelmshaven (Economy at Wilhelmshaven) (2001), (cited 3rd of April
2001). Available from: <URL:http://www.wilhelmshaven.de/wirtschaft
CD Rom
§ INEOS Chlor Atlantik GmbH (2001) “Presentation Jade-Weser Port”
Wilhelmshaven, INEOS Chlor Atlantik GmbH
82
Appendix 1: Time Plan of the Jade-Weser Port Project
Source: Feasibility Study, 1999
Appendix 2: Investment Proposal
Source: Feasibility Study, 1999(The original data was given in DM, thus the right has been reserved to calculate amount in Euro using abroad exchange rate 2 DM : 1 Euro)
ActionPeriod
1997 - 1998Analysis for handling potential of a Container and multi-purpose port inWilhelmshaven
1998 – 2000 Feasibility study Jade-Weser Port(technical, ecological, economical
2000 – 2001 Politics get involved in the Project Decision taken on March 30, 2001
2001 – 2003 Legal procedures, permits, etc.
2003 – 2007 Construction
End of 2007 Start – up Container Terminal
ActionPeriod
1997 - 1998Analysis for handling potential of a Container and multi-purpose port inWilhelmshaven
1998 – 2000 Feasibility study Jade-Weser Port(technical, ecological, economical
2000 – 2001 Politics get involved in the Project Decision taken on March 30, 2001
2001 – 2003 Legal procedures, permits, etc.
2003 – 2007 Construction
End of 2007 Start – up Container Terminal
Investment in EURO* Investment Purpose InvestorInvestment in DM
Eurogate Suprastructure (Cranes,Vehicles, building, yard, Information technology
325650
Jade-Weser Port AGTerminal infrastructure,Quay construction175350
Lower Saxony Land Reclamation(460 ha)200400
StateInfrastructure connection(Land and sea)100200
Lower Saxony,Economic DevelopmentCorporation,Jade-Weser Port AGEurogate
Permitting Procedures1020
Investment in EURO* Investment Purpose InvestorInvestment in DM
Eurogate Suprastructure (Cranes,Vehicles, building, yard, Information technology
325650
Jade-Weser Port AGTerminal infrastructure,Quay construction175350
Lower Saxony Land Reclamation(460 ha)200400
StateInfrastructure connection(Land and sea)100200
Lower Saxony,Economic DevelopmentCorporation,Jade-Weser Port AGEurogate
Permitting Procedures1020
83
Appendix 3: The Global Demand Scenarios
Scenario 1: Global Competition
This scenario implies a continuation of current developments in which world trade will
increase by 7 % and the European trade stabilizing at a rate of 6 %. Furthermore
increased container traffic will lead to an augmentation in investments in shipping and
ports, incorporating the introduction of mega-carriers above 8,000 TEU. This scenario
offers the best circumstances for the construction of a new deep-water terminal.
Scenario 2: Fortress of Europe
This scenario represents a more moderate estimation of world trade development, which
again will initiate further integration measures within the European Union as a
protectionist measure against competition from the Far East. Therefore the growth rate of
world trade is estimated at 5.2 %. This will lead delay the introduction of the larger
carriers.
Scenario 3: Protectionism
World trade increases at a rate of 4 % only which implies that the large ships will only
enter the market earliest in the year 2005.
(Source: Feasibility Study, 1999)
84
Appendix 4: Intermodal Split of Cargo
Source: INEOS, 2001
Appendix 5: International Transport Zones and available Transport Modes
Shipping is only one link in the transportation chain. The examination of the chain of
transportation allows for a better understanding of the significance of infrastructure.
Source: Stopford, 1997
Area Transport Sector VehicleZone
1 Inter-regional Deep sea shipping Ship
Air freight Plane
2 Short sea Coastal seas Ship/ ferry
Rivers and Canals Barge
3 Land Road Lorry
Rail Train
Area Transport Sector VehicleZone
1 Inter-regional Deep sea shipping Ship
Air freight Plane
2 Short sea Coastal seas Ship/ ferry
Rivers and Canals Barge
3 Land Road Lorry
Rail Train
Short Sea Shipping
270,000 TEU270,000 TEU
Handling hinterland: 540,000 TEUHandling hinterland: 540,000 TEU
Feeder serviceMega Carrier Feeder ServiceMega Carrier
Handling Quayside: 1,800,000 TEU
270,000 TEU
108,000 TEU
Deep Sea Shipping
432,000 TEU
Yard
Quay
1,260,000 TEU
Transshipment
1,062,000 TEU1,062,000 TEU 630,000 TEU 108,000 TEU630,000 TEU 108,000 TEU630,000 TEU 108,000 TEU630,000 TEU 108,000 TEU
85
Appendix 6: Population and Labour Force
The Jade-Weser region is marked by an extreme low density and uneven distribution of
population across the whole region. Within the last years the region noted a very low
population growth, some areas (as for example the city of Wilhelmshaven) even suffered
under a population decrease. Children and above 45 years olds are over-represented
strongly which implies a serious deficit in terms of working population.
Looking at the structure of the labor force in this area we can observe an extreme high
level of unemployment. In 1999 the Jade-Weser Region conveyed 18,100 unemployed,
13.9% which is around 40% above average in comparison with the rest of former West
Germany.
Development of Employment in the Jade-Weser Region 1980-2000
Source: Jung and Pohl, 2001
112 110 108 106 104 102 100 98 96
Jade – Weser Region Lower Saxony Former West Germany
In 1000
Year 1980 2000
112 110 108 106 104 102 100 98 96
112 110 108 106 104 102 100 98 96
Jade – Weser Region Lower Saxony Former West Germany
In 1000
Year
86
In 2000 this number was reduced to 15,200 (10.9 %). Wilhelmshaven especially has to
deal with high levels of unemployment.
Development of Employment in Wilhelmshaven, 1980-2000
Source: Jung and Pohl, 2001
Development of Unemployment rate in %, 1980 –2000
Source: Jung and Pohl, 2001
112 110 108 106 104 102 100 98 96
City of Wilhelmshaven Lower Saxony Former West Germany
In 1000
Year
94 92 90
112 110 108 106 104 102 100 98 96
In 1000
Year
94 92 90
1980 2000
18
17
16
15
14
13
12
11
10
9
8
7
6
5
488 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00
Jade-Weser Region
Former West Germany
Unemployment Rate%
Year
18
17
16
15
14
13
12
11
10
9
8
7
6
5
488 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00
Jade-Weser Region
Former West Germany
Unemployment Rate%
Year
87
The GDP of the Jade-Weser Region amounted to 93.0 bn DM – 46.5 bn Euro (workforce:
131,000, tax payers: 88,000) thus the GDP per capita was 74,000 DM, which is about 5%
above former West German average.
Income per Capita – 1995, in DM
Source: Jung and Pohl, 2001
The regional income per capita as well remains well around 20% below German average.
The average income level throughout the region is 10% below the average of former
West Germany. Within the region the rural district of Friesland and Wittmund have the
lowest levels of all.
Germany
Former West GermanyLower Saxony
Jade Weser Region
Rural District Wesermarsch
Rural District Wittmund
Rural District FrieslandCity of Wilhelmshaven
0 20 40 60 100
88
Appendix 7: Industries’ Share in GDP and Employment
Source: Jung and Pohl, 2001
The producing industry is presently the greatest contributor to the regional GDP.
Nevertheless it is not employment-effective and currently only employs around 27% of
the labour force (32,400) of which 23,300 are subject to the processing industry and
7,700 to the construction industry.
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
%
Rural D
istrictO
f Friesland
Rural D
istrictW
ittmund
Rural D
istrictW
esermarsch
Germ
anyW
est
City of
Wilhelm
shaven
GDP 1996 Employed Population 1997
Private Service
Government Service
Producing Industry
Agriculture
Jade-Weser
Region
Jade-Weser
Region
Rural D
istrictW
esermarsch
Germ
anyW
est
City of
Wilhelm
shaven
Rural D
istrictO
f Friesland
Rural D
istrictW
ittmund
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
%
Rural D
istrictO
f Friesland
Rural D
istrictW
ittmund
Rural D
istrictW
esermarsch
Germ
anyW
est
City of
Wilhelm
shaven
GDP 1996 Employed Population 1997
Private Service
Government Service
Producing Industry
Agriculture
Jade-Weser
Region
Jade-Weser
Region
Rural D
istrictW
esermarsch
Germ
anyW
est
City of
Wilhelm
shaven
Rural D
istrictO
f Friesland
Rural D
istrictW
ittmund
89
Appendix 8 : Employment by Industry Structure – 2000
Source: Jung and Pohl, 2001
Agriculture and Forestry 1,300
Aircraft manufacture 3,700
Food 2,600
Electrical engineering 1,900
Mechanical engineering 1,800
Shipbuilding 1,800
Automobile manufacture 1,600
Plastics 1,300
Wood processing 1,300
Energy and Mining 1,100
Chemical 900
Glass and Ceramics 900
Pulp and Paper 800
Processing Industry 23,300
Construction 7,700
Producing Industry 32,400
Service Industry 56,500
TOTAL
Agriculture and Forestry 1,300
Aircraft manufacture 3,700
Food 2,600
Electrical engineering 1,900
Mechanical engineering 1,800
Shipbuilding 1,800
Automobile manufacture 1,600
Plastics 1,300
Wood processing 1,300
Energy and Mining 1,100
Chemical 900
Glass and Ceramics 900
Pulp and Paper 800
Processing Industry 23,300
Construction 7,700
Producing Industry 32,400
Service Industry 56,500
TOTAL
90
Appendix 9: Seaborne Trade by Economic Activity in a Global Context
Source: Stopford, 1997
Detailed %Economic Activity % of Trade
Crude oil: 32.9Oil products: 10.0Gas: 2.0Steam coal: 5.0
49.9Energy
Grain: 6.0Fertilizers: 1.9Other: 5.3
13.2Agriculture
Iron ore: 9.5Coking coal: 4.6Steel products: 3.5Other: 3.2
20.7Metal
Timber: 2.4Wood pulp: 0.6Other: 1.2
4.2Forest products
Bulk minerals: 3.0Chemicals: 2.6Other:3.2
8.7Industrial materials
Textiles, machinery etc.3.3Manufactures
Detailed %Economic Activity % of Trade
Crude oil: 32.9Oil products: 10.0Gas: 2.0Steam coal: 5.0
49.9Energy
Grain: 6.0Fertilizers: 1.9Other: 5.3
13.2Agriculture
Iron ore: 9.5Coking coal: 4.6Steel products: 3.5Other: 3.2
20.7Metal
Timber: 2.4Wood pulp: 0.6Other: 1.2
4.2Forest products
Bulk minerals: 3.0Chemicals: 2.6Other:3.2
8.7Industrial materials
Textiles, machinery etc.3.3Manufactures
91
Appendix 10: Development of Output and Export Ratio –Producing Industry
* Index, 1997 = 100 Source: Die Bundesrepublik Deutschland 2005-2010-2020, Deutschland Report Nr.2,Prognose, Basel 1998; Jung and Pohl, 2001
162.7 32.8 44.6120.5100.099.8
176.4 36.7 45.0127.3100.0101.7
219.9 32.8 49.0134.2100.090.9233.5 38.6 50.7147.4100.094.5
Switching equipment
EBM
Total producing industry Computer and office
206.3 45.6 54.0140.3100.0100.2216.5 56.8 60.0136.6100.0110.6
196.1 24.4 42.9140.3100.092.7204.7 31.9 50.0134.6100.098.8
193.0 34.33 47.6136.1100.0100.0195.1 52.1 57.1129.2100.095.7
Automotive spare partsSpecialty machineryMotors Other electrical engineering
Automotive constructionElectrical engineering
189.5 40.3 50.0130.5100.0106.5190.5 46.8 54.7130.1100.0112.2
184.2 20.1 38.9129.2100.089.5186.1 58.2 59.9127.3100.097.5
172.0 53.1 60.0123.4100.076.0
182.9 48.0 55.0119.6100.0135.0
Mechanical engineeringMedicine/ opticAutomotive/ engine constructionMetal productsOther automotive
Chemical raw material
166.2 45.8 56.0117.1100.086.9171.5 37.4 50.0123.6100.0114.0
161.5 32.732.1
117.1100.099.1163.7 16.1
50.0
119.4100.094.7
156.9 12.652.0
116.1100.082.5158.3 38.3
47.0108.4100.0101.9
Other mechanical engineeringChemical industry Glass and ceramicsPaper Other chemicalsSteel/ metal construction
153.0 26.430.1
119.6100.0101.2Rubber and plastics
146.8 46.7 50.0111.8100.0133.3148.5 48.9
42.9117.1100.074.2
136.5 11.1 20.3114.6100.093.8144.4 35.6 46.3116.9100.0103.1
125.8 9.3 12.0106.2100.0110.9134.4 11.0 18.6113.9100.092.4
Broadcasting Tool and machinery Metal Food Wood Printing
103.3 18.8 35.0105.3100.0117.2Furniture
94.8 30.4 43.899.8100.0145.196.8 9.3 8.596.5100.0122.1
69.1 24.2 31.976.4100.0171.884.6 3.2 3.596.0100.099.2
Output 2020
Export %1997
Export %2020
Output2005
Output1997*
Output1991
51.0 25.7 36.073.3100.0193.1
Tobacco Textile Mineral oilLeather Clothing
Industry group
162.7 32.8 44.6120.5100.099.8
176.4 36.7 45.0127.3100.0101.7
219.9 32.8 49.0134.2100.090.9233.5 38.6 50.7147.4100.094.5
Switching equipment
EBM
Total producing industry Computer and office
206.3 45.6 54.0140.3100.0100.2216.5 56.8 60.0136.6100.0110.6
196.1 24.4 42.9140.3100.092.7204.7 31.9 50.0134.6100.098.8
193.0 34.33 47.6136.1100.0100.0195.1 52.1 57.1129.2100.095.7
Automotive spare partsSpecialty machineryMotors Other electrical engineering
Automotive constructionElectrical engineering
189.5 40.3 50.0130.5100.0106.5190.5 46.8 54.7130.1100.0112.2
184.2 20.1 38.9129.2100.089.5186.1 58.2 59.9127.3100.097.5
172.0 53.1 60.0123.4100.076.0
182.9 48.0 55.0119.6100.0135.0
Mechanical engineeringMedicine/ opticAutomotive/ engine constructionMetal productsOther automotive
Chemical raw material
166.2 45.8 56.0117.1100.086.9171.5 37.4 50.0123.6100.0114.0
161.5 32.732.1
117.1100.099.1163.7 16.1
50.0
119.4100.094.7
156.9 12.652.0
116.1100.082.5158.3 38.3
47.0108.4100.0101.9
Other mechanical engineeringChemical industry Glass and ceramicsPaper Other chemicalsSteel/ metal construction
153.0 26.430.1
119.6100.0101.2Rubber and plastics
146.8 46.7 50.0111.8100.0133.3148.5 48.9
42.9117.1100.074.2
136.5 11.1 20.3114.6100.093.8144.4 35.6 46.3116.9100.0103.1
125.8 9.3 12.0106.2100.0110.9134.4 11.0 18.6113.9100.092.4
Broadcasting Tool and machinery Metal Food Wood Printing
103.3 18.8 35.0105.3100.0117.2Furniture
94.8 30.4 43.899.8100.0145.196.8 9.3 8.596.5100.0122.1
69.1 24.2 31.976.4100.0171.884.6 3.2 3.596.0100.099.2
Output 2020
Export %1997
Export %2020
Output2005
Output1997*
Output1991
51.0 25.7 36.073.3100.0193.1
Tobacco Textile Mineral oilLeather Clothing
Industry group
92
Appendix 11: World Merchant Fleet Order Book Development
(dwt: deadweight tonnage; cgt: compensated gross tonnage)Source: ISL, 2001
Appendix 12: Container Ship Dimensions, Explanations and Load Factors
Ship Sizes and Models
Source: Simonsen (2001)
Please look for explanations on the following page:
Ship Type
Tankers
1998 20001999 Average growth rate
Jan 1st Jan 1st 1998 - 2000
Bulk carriers
Container ships
General Cargo Ships
Passenger ships
July 1st
Total
Jan 1st
No. dwt cgt No. dwt cgt No. dwt cgt No. dwt cgt dwt cgt
566 46 14
283 19 5
603 43 14
388 22 6
231 7 5
620 6 6
139 0 4
343 9 6
478 5 5
154 0 4
1945 79 35 1839 78 34
467 43 12 477 44 12 - 0.8 - 6.9
366 26 7 455 31 8 27.6 24.9
261 10 7 325 14 9 40.6 35.4
520 4 5 470 4 4 - 15.3 - 16.5
166 1 6 178 1 7 28.7 26.6
1779 84 36 1906 94 40 10.6 8.3
Ship Type
Tankers
1998 20001999 Average growth rate
Jan 1st Jan 1st 1998 - 2000
Bulk carriers
Container ships
General Cargo Ships
Passenger ships
July 1st
Total
Jan 1st
No. dwt cgt No. dwt cgt No. dwt cgt No. dwt cgt dwt cgt
566 46 14
283 19 5
603 43 14
388 22 6
231 7 5
620 6 6
139 0 4
343 9 6
478 5 5
154 0 4
1945 79 35 1839 78 34
467 43 12 477 44 12 - 0.8 - 6.9
366 26 7 455 31 8 27.6 24.9
261 10 7 325 14 9 40.6 35.4
520 4 5 470 4 4 - 15.3 - 16.5
166 1 6 178 1 7 28.7 26.6
1779 84 36 1906 94 40 10.6 8.3
Generation CapacityTEU
Lengthm
Beam m
Draft m
1. (1968) 750 180 25 9.0
2. (1972) 1,500 225 29 11.5
3. (1980) 3,000 275 32 12.5
4. (1987) 4,500 275 39 13.5
5. (1997) 5,000 325 41 14.1
6. (1999) 8,000 345 43 14.5
Future 9,000 + 370 50 15.0
Future on sketch board 11,800 420 55 16.0
Generation CapacityTEU
Lengthm
Beam m
Draft m
1. (1968) 750 180 25 9.0
2. (1972) 1,500 225 29 11.5
3. (1980) 3,000 275 32 12.5
4. (1987) 4,500 275 39 13.5
5. (1997) 5,000 325 41 14.1
6. (1999) 8,000 345 43 14.5
Future 9,000 + 370 50 15.0
Future on sketch board 11,800 420 55 16.0
93
Explanations of Ship Dimensions
§ Third and fourth generation are those ships classified as “Panamax” as they are still
capable of passing the Panama Channel
§ Fifth generation is called the “Post-Panamax”, they are no longer able to pass the
Panama Cannel
§ Ships starting from around TEU 6,000 – 9,600 are S-Class from Maersk-Sealand
§ The future ships of TEU 12,000 are named “Suezmax” and are just able to pass the
Suez Canal
§ The Ultralarge Container Carriers of TEU 12,000 – 18,000 are categorized as the
“Malacca-Max” class (Straits of Malacca have a depth of 21,0m). If ever built, the
Suez-Canal must be further be increased in depth for these giants to be able to pass
Depth according to Load Factor
Source: PLANCO, 2000
100 %
90 %
80 %
70 %
60 %
50 % 11.6m 11.0m 10.5m 9.9m
12.6m 11.9m 11.3m 10.6m
12.9m 12.0m 11.2m
12.8m 11.9m
12.6m
Load-factor
13.5m
13.5m
13.3m 14.2m
13.8m 14.5m
14.5m 15.4m
15.3m 16.3m
Depth
100 %
90 %
80 %
70 %
60 %
50 % 11.6m 11.0m 10.5m 9.9m
12.6m 11.9m 11.3m 10.6m
12.9m 12.0m 11.2m
12.8m 11.9m
12.6m
Load-factor
13.5m
13.5m
13.3m 14.2m
13.8m 14.5m
14.5m 15.4m
15.3m 16.3m
Depth
94
Appendix 13: Technology Systems at Terminal
Source: Feasibility Study, 1999
Explanations
§ Van Carrier (VCI): a very flexible means of transportation that can execute all
transportation and storage-movements at the terminal
§ Rail mounted Gantry Crane (RMG) and Automated Guided Vehicle (AGV): these
systems have to be operated jointly.
§ Linear Motor-based Transfer Technology (LMTT): despite little need for
maintenance and space and its high efficiency this system offers less flexibility, as it
cannot turn the containers
System 2013 - 201520102006
VCI 1,138853303
AGV II 937675270
LMTT 924604240
System 2013 - 201520102006
VCI 1,138853303
AGV II 937675270
LMTT 924604240