Snapshot of the Irish Economy

October 2009

The Sesame Street Introduction

Today’s presentation is brought to you with the letters Y, C, I, G, X and M, some numbers and lots of pictures!

Y = C + I + G + (X – M)

Then and Now

Standardised Unemployment Rate (September): 1984: 15.8%2009: 12.9%

CPI Annual Inflation Rate (September): 1984: + 5.9%2009: – 6.5%

Interest Rate (September): 1984: 13.00% (Central Bank Rediscount Rate)2009: 1.00% (ECB Main Refinancing Rate)

Exchequer Deficit (%GDP):1984: 10.50%2009: 10.75%

Where Next?

Davy Forecasts (Rossa White)

GDP Component

2008 2009F 2010F 2011F

Consumer Spending

-1.0 -7.0 1.5 3.8

Investment -15.5 -27.0 -11.5 2.8

Government Spending

2.6 -1.0 -3.0 -1.5

Exports -1.0 -2.0 3.5 6.0

Imports -2.1 -7.5 1.4 4.9

GDP -3.0 -6.3 1.2 4.1

GNP -2.8 -9.6 0.5 3.9

% Change in Volume

ESRI Forecasts for 2010

Quarterly Economic Forecasts

GDP Component Spring 2009 Summer 2009 Autumn 2009

Consumer Spending

-3.0 -3.0 -2.0

Investment -11.6 -17.2 -15.5

Government Spending

-2.0 -3.0 -2.0

Exports -5.2 -1.4 1.1

Imports -1.1 -4.8 -1.2

GDP -1.2 -2.3 -1.1

GNP -1.4 -2.3 -1.7

Real Annual Growth %

Retail Sales Index (All Businesses)

Earnings

Savings0

10000

20000

30000

40000

savin

gs

2006:Jul 2007:Jan 2007:Jul 2008:Jan 2008:Jul 2009:Jandate

Household Savings in Accounts of 2 Years or less

Source: Central Bank

Borrowings

Source: Central Bank

Unemployment Rates in Ireland

Inflation in Ireland-5

05

10

15

20

25

inflat

1980 1990 2000 2010date

Monthly Annual Inflation Rate

Investment

Investment

Government Balance

The Public Finances

The God That Failed

2007 2008 2009 E

Value Added Tax

Income Tax

Excise

Stamps

Corporation Tax

Capital Gains Tax

Customs

Training & Employment Levy

Unallocated

14,496,588

13,572,410

5,837,878

3,185,602

6,390,625

3,105,495

265,904

2,501

0

13,429,602

13,176,857

5,443,338

1,650,792

5,065,894

1,430,080

248,001

1,032

0

11,420,000

12,475,000

4,634,000

980,000

3,740,000

625,000

230,000

1,000

0

Total 47,249,352 40,777,196 34,400,000

Tax Revenue (€000s)

Jan-Sept 2008 Jan-Sept 2009

Value Added Tax

Income Tax

Excise

Stamps

Corporation Tax

Capital Gains Tax

Customs

Training & Employment Levy

Unallocated

10,998,485

8,690,515

4,150,996

1,358,084

2,121,951

623,926

194,303

692

30,034

8,657,291

7,873,515

3,312,225

679,587

2,601,266

219,482

151,125

988

16,711

Total 28,478,147 23,705,608

Tax Revenue for Period Jan – Sept 2009, €000

Expenditure (€000s)Vote or Group of Votes 2007 2008 2009E

Health & Children 12,448,835 13,745,317 13,426,037

Social & Family Affairs 8,180,934 9,399,098 10,915,679

Education & Science 8,443,974 9,031,516 8,900,030

Other 15,534,992 17,136,863 14,162,658

Total 44,608,735 49,312,794 47,404,404

National Debt

Balance of Trade

Balance of Payments