The Iraq WarsTheo Farrell, CSI Lecture 5, 2011

1990-91 Gulf War: timeline

Bill from Iraq to Kuwait for $24.5 b (16 July 1990)

Invasion of Kuwait (2 August 1990)

UNSCR 660 demanding unconditional withdrawal

UNSCR 678 (29 Nov) authorising use of “all necessary means” and requiring Iraq withdrawal by 15 January 1991

1990-91 Gulf War: timeline

Bill from Iraq to Kuwait for $24.5 b (16 July 1990)

Invasion of Kuwait (2 August 1990)

UNSCR 660 demanding unconditional withdrawal

UNSCR 678 (29 Nov) authorising use of “all necessary means” and requiring Iraq withdrawal by 15 January 1991

Campaign phases

1. Op Desert Shield: build-up of defensive force (8 Aug – early Nov 1990)

2. Build-up of offensive force (8 Nov – 16 Jan 1991)

3. Op Desert Storm: air offensive (17 Jan – 23 Feb)

4. Op Desert Sabre: ground offensive (24 – 27 Feb).

Coalition Iraq

Force size

950,00 550,00

War dead >300 25-35,000

Air campaign

•1800 planes

•6 carriers

•43 days

•‘tank plinking’

Attrition of Iraqi forces in KTO (% destroyed)

Iraqi Air campaign

War total

Tanks 39 76APCs 32 55Artillery 47 90

Key questions

1.Why did Saddam invade Kuwait?

2.Why did the US fail to deter Iraq?

3.Was war necessary?

Key questions

1.Why did Saddam invade Kuwait?

2. Why did the US fail to deter Iraq?

3. Was war necessary?

Why invade?

Impasse with Iran

Economic crisis in Iraq

End of Cold War

Dispute with Kuwait

Assumption of US impotence

Was war necessary?

Did Bush “go the extra mile” for piece?

Saddam responded vaguely to proposals by ME states (22 Sept), Soviets (5 Oct), France (10 Oct), Ed Heath (21 Oct), and Soviets again (19 Feb)

Giving sanctions more time? Debate in Congress. Vote for war (12 Jan) – Senate 52/47 (House 250/183).

Why stop after 100 hours?

UNSCR 687 (3 April 1991)

Articles 8-10:

Iraq to get rid of chemical and biological weapons

Not to develop nuclear weapons

Not to acquire ballistic missiles with range over 150km

Containing Saddam

Sanctions regime

No fly zones

Road to war in 2003

UNSC 687 (April 1991)

UNSCOM destroy Iraq’s poison gas stockpile (1991-92) 

Defection of head of Iraq’s WMD programme (1995) reveals Iraqi deception

Road to war (continued)

• collapse of UNSCOM process (1997)

• US/UK bombing (1998)

• Failure of UN sanctions materially: up to $3 b stolen annually from oil for food

morally: half million killed

Cost of sanctions regime

From 9/11 to Iraq War

Freedman: “worse-case analysis gained a new credibility”

the logic of prevention – Rice: “we don’t want the smoking gun to be a mushroom cloud.”

Neocons “hijack” US foreign policy – emphasise 3 Ms: moral certainty, military unilateralism and the Middle East

Iraq and Al Qaeda?

• CIA’s Oct 2002 NIE downplays connection

• Bush before Congress vote (Oct 8):

“Share a common enemy” and “have had high-level contacts that go back a decade.” Also “Iraq has trained al-Qaeda members in bombing-making and poisons and deadly gasses.”

Iraq and Al Qaeda?

Public ignorance (Jan/Sept 2003): 9/11 hijackers were Iraqi: 44% 

Saddam behind 9/11 attacks: 32%  

Iraq gave support to al-Qaeda: 51%

The case for war

“The threat from Iraq stands alone because it gathers the most serious dangers of our age in our place”

• WMD

• Murderous tyrant

• Tried to dominate Middle East

• Unrelenting hostility towards US

President Bush speech at Cincinnati, Ohio (Oct 2002)

Iraqi WMD

“Iraq has continued its WMA programs in defiance of UN resolutions and restrictions. Baghdad has chemical and biological weapons as well as missiles with ranges in excess of UN restrictions; if left unchecked, it probably will have a nuclear weapon during this decade.”

CIA report, October 2002

Legal case for war

678: carte blanche for US war

687: imposes cease-fire conditions

who determines ‘material breach’ and what are the implications? 

1441: recognises ‘material breach’ but does not authorise use of force

Legal case for war

678: carte blanche for US war

687: imposes cease-fire conditions

who determines ‘material breach’ and what are the implications? 

1441: recognises ‘material breach’ but does not authorise use of force

Balance of forces

Coalition

116,000 (US), 25,000 (UK)

V Corps (US Army): 3 Mech, 4ID, 101, 82

1 MEF (USMC): 1 Div, TF Tarawa, UK 1 Arm Div

Iraqi

350,000

20+ divisions

2,000 tanks, 3,700 Avs, 2,400 artillery, 300 aircraft

Petraeus takes charge (Jan. 2007)