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The influence of new technologies on the supply chainRecap and visions for tomorrow
Jan Fransoo & Rob Basten
“As for society, the pieces are all in place for a time of material efficiency and creative explosion.”
Kevin O’Marah – SCM World www.scmworld.com
Disruptive technologies
Now is the time
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Innovations involving robotics, cloud computing and 3D printing are disrupting industries in emerging markets and enabling companies to achieve new efficiencies in the way they operate. New technologies: “Improved collaboration between all parties in the value chain will be essential in order to achieve a more efficient and effective value chain to better serve the needs of the consumer.” Capgemini https://www.nl.capgemini.com/resource-file-access/resource/pdf/Future_Supply_Chain_2016_0.pdf
Disruptive technologies
Disruptive technologies for supply chain
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Graph: suvery by chief supply chain of SCM World (1057 respondents) http://www.forbes.com/sites/louiscolumbus/2015/07/13/ten-ways-big-data-is-revolutionizing-supply-chain-management/
Additive manufacturing
3D Printing
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Additive manufacturing techniques to create objects by printing layers of material based on digital models. Potentially disruptive technologies (McKinsey Global Institute, 2013) http://www.mckinsey.com/insights/business_technology/disruptive_technologies
• Software Defined Supply Chain• Much, much simpler supply chains• Optimal supply chain shifts from a global towards a city level
Additive manufacturing
Vision Paul Brody (Strategy Leader EY)
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https://gigaom.com/2013/07/21/todays-complex-global-supply-chains-are-poised-to-be-dismantled/ Visie van Paul Brody in verschillende bronnen gaat met name over de Software defined supply chain. IBM picture: http://additiveworld.com/upload/file/Paul%20Brody,%20IBM%20The%20Software%20Defined%20Supply%20Chain%20v7_5%20March%202014%20(1).pdf
Additive manufacturing
• On demand manufacturing• Location Elastic• Customization• No economies of scale!
IBM (2013): The era of small, simple and local
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On demand manufacturing • Rapid prototyping will allow for shorter product design cycles • Stockless inventory models will result in smarter supply chains and lower risk in manufacturing Location elasticity • Supply chains will become more location elastic, bringing manufacturing closer to consumer • Transportation of fewer finished goods will alter global trade flows and the logistics industry Customization • 3D printing will enable product customization to personal and demographic needs • New retail models will emerge, engaging the consumer in the product design process Economies of scale • Ideally, cost of producing one unit = cost of producing a million units • While industries will never reach an economy of scale of one, 3D manufacturing will lower the minimum economic scale of volume production 3D printing and robotic assembly will upend far-flung manufacturing operations, undercutting the need for large supplier networks and extended supply chains. By 2022, the ideal manufacturing location will be local or regional. http://www-935.ibm.com/services/multimedia/The_new_software-defined_supply_chain_Exec_Report.pdf http://www.huffingtonpost.com/paul-r-brody/3d-printing-has-started-a_b_4698383.html
• 30% of top 300 largest companies using/evaluating 3D printing• “We’re seeing a level of investment in 3D printing that we have not
seen in the past — not even close.” (Terry Wohlers)• TNO: 3-D printing innovations will impact supply chain network
design
Additive manufacturing
Market opportunities
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Eventueel uitleg over Stratasys, één van de grootste 3D printing bedrijven van de wereld. Strategy: part of Stratasys’ business plan is positioning itself as a centralizing manufacturing-services hub in a growing geographical network of 3D printing capacity.” Omer Krieger (http://3dprintingindustry.com/2015/06/24/how-will-3d-printing-reshape-society-an-interview-with-stratasys-omer-krieger/ ) TJ Mcue (https://hbr.org/2015/07/3d-printing-is-changing-the-way-we-think ) TNO (http://3din.nl/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/TNO-Whitepaper-3-D-Printing-and-Supply-Chain-Management-April-2014-web.pdf ) Video: t/m 1:16 en dan commercieel
• 3D printers are energy hogs• Unhealthy air emissions• Reliance on plastics• Responsibility and security of manufacturers• Ethics and regulation• Drugs
Additive manufacturing
The dark side of 3D printing
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Criticism on 3D printing that can tackle the hype. However, those problems are more focused on individual production instead on supply chain wide production. The 3D printer is a double-edged sword. It stands to transform technology and society for the better, but we also can't ignore the potential negative consequences. http://www.techrepublic.com/article/the-dark-side-of-3d-printing-10-things-to-watch/
Big Data
Internet of Things
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Networks of low-cost sensors and actuators for data collection, monitoring, decision making, and process optimization. Potentially disruptive technologies (McKinsey Global Institute, 2013)
Big Data
Accenture: Big Data Analytics
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Big data is providing supplier networks with greater data accuracy, clarity, and insights, leading to more contextual intelligence shared across supply chains. Graph is result of survey of 1000 senior executives at global firms Notes of graph: Big data is having an impact on organizations’ reaction time to supply chain issues (41%), increased supply chain efficiency of 10% or greater (36%), and greater integration across the supply chain (36%).
Big Data
BCG: Three High-Potential Opportunities• Visualizing Delivery routes• Pinpointing Future Demand• Simplifying Distribution Networks
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Companies that exploit these opportunities can generate significant revenues and profits, as well as reduce costs marekedly, lower cash requirements, and boost agility. Steps to explore opportunities: Connect the supply chain from end to end Reward data consistency Build cross-functional data transparancy Invest in the right capabilities p. 26: http://media-publications.bcg.com/BCG_Technology_Advantage_April_2015.pdf
Big Data12
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Foto ter verduidelijking van de enorme puzzle, maar als deze wordt opgelost er heel veel voordelen te halen zijn met big data. “Big Data analytics are essential, helping to produce an integrated view of customer interactions and operational performance, and ensure sender and recipient satisfaction.“ Detecon consulting: http://www.delivering-tomorrow.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/CSI_Studie_BIG_DATA_FINAL-ONLINE.pdf “Companies that excel at big data and advanced analytics can unravel forecasting, logistics, distribution, and other problems that have long plagued operations.” Accenture: https://acnprod.accenture.com/_acnmedia/Accenture/Conversion-Assets/DotCom/Documents/Global/PDF/Dualpub_2/Accenture-Global-Operations-Megatrends-Study-Big-Data-Analytics.pdf#zoom=50
Big Data
Capgemini: not enough action
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Survey: 226 executives A whopping 60 percent of 226 execs surveyed by Capgemini Consulting, in yet another report, said that big data will “disrupt” their industry in the next three years but only 13 percent of them have big data implementations in production. And, less than a third of those responding (27 percent) described their own big data initiatives as successful; 8 percent described them as very successful.
Advanced Robotics
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Increasingly capable robots with enhanced senses, dexterity, and intelligence used to automate tasks or augment humans. Potentially disruptive technologies (McKinsey Global Institute, 2013)
• Reduced costs• Reduced injuries• Lower overhead• Reduced payrolls • Higher quality• Higher efficiency• Less errors
Robotics
McKinsey: benefits
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“By 2025 advanced robots could be capable of producing goods with higher quality and higher reliability by catching and correcting their own mistakes and those of other robots or humans” Furthermore, robots can be operational 24 hours a week, 7 days a week. We estimate that by 2025 advanced robotics could have a worldwide economic impact of $1.7 trillion to $4.5 trillion annually across the applications we have sized Pictures: http://www.wfs.org/futurist/2013-issues-futurist/may-june-2013-vol-47-no-3/robots-work-toward-smarter-factory http://techshash.com/2014/12/04/amazons-robot-army/ http://www.roboticsbusinessreview.com/article/building_the_factory_of_the_future_at_robobusiness
Additive manufacturing
Amazon tests out robots that might one day replace warehouse workers:• Next generation of robots: faster and smarter• Next generation of humans: “as good”
Amazon
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Amazon already has more than 15,000 robots in its warehouses http://qz.com/416668/amazon-tests-out-robots-that-might-one-day-replace-warehouse-workers/ “With the aid of the Cloud and Big Data, robots are able to retrieve instant product information with which to communicate purchase advice to customers, even remind customers of their recent purchases or favorite styles—in any language the customer so desires! In an age of social-media-influenced selling, those extra robot benefits will be huge and hugely transformative.” Robotics business review (2014) http://adverbum.hautetfort.com/media/01/00/172552389.pdf
“Smart business will be planning not just how robots might decrease their costs, but how they can also increase customer satisfaction, too””
Robotics
Robolove
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Examples of Robolove (http://trendwatching.com/trends/10-trends-for-2015/) : In July 2014, Düsseldorf Airport unveiled the world’s first robotic parking valet. Customers leave their car, and a robot picks it up and positions the vehicle in one of 249 dedicated spaces. The system connects to the airport’s flight database, meaning that customers find their vehicle ready and waiting for them upon their return. November 2014 saw US hardware retailerLowe’s trialling OSHbot robot sales assistants in a California store. The robots have a 3D scanner to identify items bought in by customers and check if replacement parts are in stock. They are also programmed to speak English and Spanish, with further language options planned. In Japan, Nestlé are trialling a robotic customer service assistant named Pepper to help guide people through the Dolce Gusto and Gold Blend coffee brand product ranges. Trials start in December 2014, with plans to roll the robots out to 1,000 stores by the end of 2015. Picture: https://intunericuljunglei.wordpress.com/2012/02/04/robo-love/
“Robots don’t seem to be causing net job losses, they do seem to change the sort of workers that are in demand.“
Robotics
No Manufacturing Jobs Lost
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George Graetz and Guy Michaels of Uppsala University https://hbr.org/2015/06/robots-seem-to-be-improving-productivity-not-costing-jobs
What has been the most influential supply chain technology in the 20th century?
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• 3D Printing– Spare parts management– Mass customization
• Big data– Forecasting– Maintenance
• Robotics– 24/7 manufacturing– 24/7 warehouse operations
Find the right application area
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Emerging technologies
• Drones• Autonomous vehicles• New energy sources• Internet of Things• Smart factories• RFID• Cyber security• Next-generation genomics• Energy storage• Automation of knowledge work
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Vanuit alle documenten, laatste 3 uit McKinsey http://www.mckinsey.com/insights/business_technology/disruptive_technologies Over Internet of Things: “It’s essential to recognise that the IoT in manufacturing is really just a platform for better management of production. By collecting data from every material conversion step, with sensors all over the factory and the wider supply chain, the IoT enables quality checking, customised execution and continuous process improvement at the level of each unit, rather than in batches.” Kevin O’Marah – SCM World www.scmworld.com http://www.scmworld.com/columns/beyond-supply-chain/smart-manufacturing-is-ready-to-pop/
Emerging Technologies
Gartner: hype cycle for emerging technologies 1995
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http://www.gartner.com/newsroom/id/2124315 Dit is de eerste hype cycle en daardoor ook nog in andere lay-out. Deze komt van de Gartner site.
Emerging Technologies
Gartner: 2005
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The technologies on the 1995 Hype Cycle have evolved; wireless communications have exploded into hundreds of underlying technologies, standards and applications, and the information superhighway has manifested itself through the Internet and World Wide Web to drive ubiquitous information access, new forms of community and whole industries built around online commerce. Some technologies didn't fare so well; videoconferencing, handwriting recognition and speech recognition are still featured 10 years later on the 2005 Emerging Technologies Hype Cycle as they struggle toward mainstream adoption (see Figure 2 and "Hype Cycle for Emerging Technologies, 2005" ).
Emerging Technologies
Gartner: 2015
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http://www.gartner.com/newsroom/id/2124315 It is the broadest aggregate Gartner Hype Cycle, selecting from the more than 2,000 technologies featured in "Gartner's Hype Cycle Special Report for 2015." For information on interpreting and using Gartner's Hype Cycles, see "Understanding Gartner's Hype Cycles.“ “You have to realize that when you come up with something really new, it often takes 15 years from the moment you obtain research-funding until the moment the product is on the shelves. This holds for almost anything” Dr. Bert Meijer, Professor of Organic Chemistry (Eindhoven University of Technology)
Emerging Technologies
McKinsey: hype or real impact?
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Emerging technologies often receive a great deal of notice. News media know that the public is fascinated with gadgets and eager for information about how the future might unfold. As Exhibit E5 shows, with the exception of the mobile Internet, there is no clear relationship between the amount of talk a technology generates and its potential to create value. The lesson for leaders is to make sure that they and their advisers have the knowledge to make their own assessments based on a structured analysis involving multiple scenarios of technology advancement and potential impact.
