the importance of science to market transformation
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The Importance of Science to Market Transformation. How a remarkably small band of gifted scientists sound the alarm and motivate government and business to save the world for future generations Personal Perspectives & Insights Stephen O. Andersen Climate Protection Partnerships Division. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
The Importance of Science to Market Transformation
How a remarkably small band of gifted scientistssound the alarm and motivate government and business
to save the world for future generations
Personal Perspectives & Insights Stephen O. Andersen
Climate Protection Partnerships Division
Preview
• Science sounded the ozone alarm
• Citizens motivated governments to act
• Governments guided public & corporate action
• Executives were ozone champions
• Partnerships transformed markets
• Strategies from Montreal for Kyoto
• Together we can protect the Earth
Ozone Science Was More Than Science
• Genius scientists postulated theory of ozone depletion, predicted Earth’s future, and sounded the alarm--risking reputations
• Scientists all over the world perfected the theory, tested the hypothesis, and advanced the literature--keeping the flame alive
• Activist scientists debunked critics, engaged governments, and motivated politicians and the public
• Forensic atmospheric scientists found the Antarctic ozone hole, chemical fingerprints and smoking guns
• Science Assessment Panel Scientists entered the public arena, clearly and confidently, leaving policy makers with no doubt about what must be done
Ozone Science
• Set the Stage: Silent Spring, Supersonic Transport, Spaceship Earth…
• Built the Foundation: Johnston, Crutzen…
• Sounded the Alarm: Molina & Rowland
• Called for Action: Rowland, Molina & NRDC
• Sustained Alert: Tolba & UNEP Unsung Heroes
• Ended Doubt: Solomon, Anderson, Others…
• Guided Action: Albritton, Watson…
• Re-Invigorated: Paul Newman…and company
Rewards of Excellent Science
• Jump-Started Diplomacy
• Motivated Business Response
• Uncompromised Ozone Protection: – Better for climate protection, health & safety
• Chlorine-Equivalent ODP-Weighting: – Pragmatic pace and substance flexibility
• Renewed Annual Concern as Hole Opens
• Rapid Action with New Science
US Benefits of Ozone Protection
• Skin Cancer– Save 6.3 Million Lives & Avoid 299 Million Cases
• Cataracts– Avoid 27.5 Million Cases
• Suppression of the Human Immune System– Mitigated but Not Quantified
• Damage to Crops & Ecosystems– Avoid ~1% Reduced Yield per 1% Ozone Depletion
Hope for Children that Life Will be Good
Industry & Military Leadership
• Montreal Controls Stimulated Cooperation
• Technical Assessment by Sector Experts
• The Power of Teams Motivated by Leadership
• Bottom-Up & Inside-Out Regulation
• Industry, Military & NASA Innovation
• Just 500 Champions Over 20 Years!
• 98% Phaseout
• Light at the End of the Tunnel
Montreal Protocol Market Transformation
• 250 Sector Global ‘Market Transformation’• Heroic Science, Precautionary Principal, & Diplomacy• Industry Guided & Technology Enabled• No-Compromise Chemical Replacement
– Comprehensive environmental assessment – Improved energy efficiency– Mitigated safety & toxicity– Products with lower ownership cost, increased employment
• 98% Ozone-Depleting Substance Phaseout in 20 Years
• Inconspicuous to Customers & Citizens• Unappreciated Contribution to Climate Protection
Military & NASA Technology Saved the Stratospheric Ozone Layer
• Aerospace & Electronics Solvents– Badge of quality, undisputed cleaning performance
• Halon Fire Protection– In combat and space evacuation is not an option
• Submarine & Ship Refrigeration and AC– Reliability, toxicity, flammability
“Who can complain if NASA and DoD resolve their extraordinary ODS dependence and NATO writes to the United Nations endorsing a complete phaseout?”
• Literally Rocket Science…
Ozone Recovery• So Close…
– Alternatives are Available for Most Uses– Production is 98% Halted– Atmospheric Chemical Levels are Declining – Down-Sized Ozone Hole
• Yet So Far Away…– Recovery to 1990 Level 15-years Later Than Hoped– Ozone Layer Not ‘Healthy’ at 1990 Level – Accelerated Recovery Avoids More Skin Cancer,
Cataracts, Suppression of the Human Immune System, and Agriculture & Ecosystem Damage
Montreal & Greenhouse Gases
• 20% of Ozone-Depleting Substances (ODSs) Replaced by HFCs and PFCs Controlled by Kyoto (80% Not-in-Kind & Housekeeping)
• HFCs Replacing ODSs are Typically Lower GWP– HFC-134a (100-yr GWP ~1300) replaced CFC-12
(100-yr GWP ~8100)
destruction
Use & Banks
recycle
end of life
Production
Emissions
Montreal Emission Sources
Technically/Economically Feasible Actions To Further Protect Ozone & Climate
• Recover and Destroy Ozone-Depleting Substances in Refrigeration, Air Conditioning, Fire Protection and Foam Products
• Accelerate the Phaseout of HCFCs in Developed and Developing Countries
• Reduce and Eliminate Emissions from Uses Exempted from Montreal Protocol Controls
CO2-Equivalent Halocarbon Bank Emissions
~7.5 Gt/year near 1990; about 33% of that year's global CO2 fossil fuel emissions
~2.5 Gt/year near 2000; about 10% of that year’s global CO2 fossil fuel emissions
1.2 Gt/year emission reduction is feasible, 2005 to 2015; about 5% of Kyoto 1990 baseline with co-benefits of advancing ozone recovery by 5 to 10 years
INTERGOVERNMNENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGETECHNOLOGY AND ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT PANEL
Extraordinary Stratospheric Ozone & Climate Benefits • Accelerate Ozone Recovery 4-6 Years!
• Reduce Global Greenhouse Gas Emissions 10% Each Year for 10 Years!
• Reward Suppliers of Alternative Technology!
• Reward Citizens with Environmentally Superior Technology that Uses Less Expensive Energy!
• Demonstrate How People and Technology Can Protect the Earth for Future Generations!
Further Reading
• S. Andersen & K.M. Sarma: Protecting the Ozone Layer, The UN History– http://shop.earthscan.co.uk/ProductDetails
• R. Benedick: Ozone Diplomacy: New Directions in Safeguarding the Planet– http://www.hup.harvard.edu/catalog/BENOZD.html
• S. Andersen & D. Zaelke: Industry Genius: Inventions and People Protecting the Climate and Fragile Ozone Layer– http://www.greenleaf-publishing.com/
• W.H. Lambright: NASA and the Environment: Ozone Depletion– http://history.nasa.gov/monograph38.pdf
• B. Metz et al: IPCC/TEAP Special Report (Ozone & Climate)– http://www.ipcc.ch/activity/specialrprt05/IPCC_low_en.pdf
• P. Canan & N. Reichman: Ozone Connections: Expert Networks in Global Environmental Governance– http://www.greenleaf-publishing.com/
Industry Genius Inventions and People Protecting the Climate and Fragile Ozone Layer Stephen O. Andersen &
Durwood Zaelke
Forewords by Astronaut Richard Truly & UN Executive Jacqueline Aloisi de Larderel