the imperative of adult education for the future of kentucky
DESCRIPTION
National Center for Higher Education Management Systems P.O. Box 9752 Boulder, Colorado 80301-9752 (303) 497-0301. The Imperative of Adult Education for the Future of Kentucky. Dennis P. Jones Presented to the Annual Adult Education Conference Louisville, Kentucky - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
Dennis P. Jones
Presented to the
Annual Adult Education ConferenceLouisville, Kentucky
September 19, 2005
National Center for Higher Education Management SystemsP.O. Box 9752 Boulder, Colorado 80301-9752 (303) 497-0301
The Imperative of Adult Education
for the Future of Kentucky
2
Question:
Why Is Adult Education So
Important to the Future of
Kentucky?
3
Simple Answer:
Kentucky Can’t Achieve Its Stated Goal
Without Significantly Increasing the
Education Attainment Levels of
Its Adult Population!
A Reminder:
The Goal Is to Achieve Per Capita Income
Equal to the National Average by 2020.
4
Relationship Between Educational Attainment and
Personal Income by State, 2000
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2000 Census
Per C
apita Inco
me
Percent with Bachelor’s Degree or Higher14.8 33.2
15,853
28,766
AL
AK
AZ
AR
CA
CO
CT
DE
FLGA
HI
ID
IL
IN
IA
KS
KY
LA
ME
MDMA
MI
MN
MS
MO
MT
NE
NV
NH
NJ
NM
NY
NC
ND
OH
OK
ORPA
RI
SC
SD
TN TX
UT
VT
VA
WV
WI
WY
14.8
15,853
28,766
AL
AK
AZ
AR
CA
CO
CT
DE
FLGA
HI
ID
IL
IN
IA
KS
KY
LA
ME
MDMA
MI
MN
MS
MO
MT
NE
NV
NH
NJ
NM
NY
NC
ND
OH
OK
ORPA
RI
SC
SD
TN TX
UT
VT
VA
WV
WI
WY
R2 = .6348
WA
5
Kentucky Per Capita Income as a Percent of the
U.S., 1960-2000
81%
79%
81%
78%
72%
70%
75%
80%
85%
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
6
Per Capita Personal Income—State Values as a Proportion of U.S., 2001
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Statistical Abstract of the United States, 2003
0
50
100
150
ConnecticutM
assachusettsNew JerseyNew YorkM
arylandNew Ham
pshireColoradoM
innesotaIllinoisCaliforniaDelawareVirginiaW
ashingtonAlaskaPennsylvaniaUnited StatesRhode IslandNevadaM
ichiganW
yoming
Wisconsin
HawaiiFloridaNebraskaO
hioG
eorgiaVerm
ontTexasKansasM
issouriO
regonIndianaNorth CarolinaIowaTennesseeM
aineSouth DakotaNorth DakotaArizonaO
klahoma
KentuckySouth CarolinaIdahoAlabam
aLouisianaUtahM
ontanaNew M
exicoArkansasW
est VirginiaM
ississippi
139.3
100.0
81.8 71.4
7
Relationship Between Educational Attainment and
Health
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2000 Census; United Health Foundation
State H
ealth In
dex—
Un
ited H
ealth F
ou
nd
ation
Percent of Adults 25-64 with a Bachelor’s Degree or Higher
AL
AKAZ
AR
CA
CO
CT
DE
GA
HI
ILIN
IA
KS
KY
LA
ME
MD
MA
MS
MT
NE
NV
NJ
NY
NC
ND
OH
OK
ORPA
RI
SC
SD
UT
VT
VA
WA
US
FL
ID
MI
MN
MO
NH
NM
TN
TX
WV
WI
WY
-30
-15
0
15
30
10% 20% 30% 40%-
-
R2 = .69
8
Index Scores on State Health Rankings, 2004
25
.02
3.9
22
.81
7.7
17
.61
7.3 15
.81
5.0
14
.41
3.7
13
.2 11
.71
1.6
10
.9 9.1 7
.37
.2 6.4
6.3
5.9 5.2 3
.6 3.0
2.9
2.8 2.1
2.1
2.0 0
.30
.30
.1
-2.0
-2.7 -4
.2 -5.8
-6.6
-7.1
-7.2
-7.5
-8.4 -1
0.4
-10
.4-1
1.1
-12
.1-1
2.9
-13
.1-2
0.2
-21
.3
-0.1
-0.1
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
Minnesota
New Hampshire
Vermont
HawaiiUtahM
assachusettsNorth DakotaConnecticutW
isconsinM
aineIowaNebraskaColoradoRhode IslandW
ashingtonKansasNew JerseyIdahoSouth DakotaVirginiaO
regonCaliforniaArizonaAlaskaPennsylvaniaM
ontanaO
hioW
yoming
IllinoisM
ichiganNew York
DelawareIndiana
MarylandTexas
Missouri
NevadaNew M
exicoKentucky
Oklahom
aNorth Carolina
FloridaAlabam
aW
est VirginiaG
eorgiaArkansas
South CarolinaTennesseeM
ississippiLouisiana
Kentucky Ranked 39th
Source: United Health Foundation—State Health Rankings 2004
9
The Education Attainment
Picture in Kentucky
10
Educational Attainment and Rank Among
States—Kentucky, 2000 (Percent)
36th
36th
46th
46th
47th
01020304050
Age 25-64 withGraduate/Prof. Degree
Age 25-64 withBachelor's or Higher
Age 25-64 withAssociate Degree
Age 25-64 with HSDiploma
Age 18-24 with HSDiploma
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2000 Census
74.9%
7.5%
79.7%
5.7%
18.8%
11
Percent of Population Age 18-24 with No High School
Diploma
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2000
NevadaTexasArizonaG
eorgiaNew M
exicoCaliforniaM
ississippiFloridaAlabam
aLouisianaNorth CarolinaO
regonSouth CarolinaUnited StatesO
klahoma
KentuckyColoradoTennesseeW
ashingtonArkansasIllinoisNew YorkNew JerseyIndianaM
ichiganM
issouriO
hioAlaskaIdahoDelawareNew Ham
pshireConnecticutSouth DakotaW
est VirginiaKansasM
ontanaM
aineW
isconsinW
yoming
Minnesota
VirginiaM
arylandPennsylvaniaNebraskaUtahRhode IslandIowaM
assachusettsVerm
ontNorth DakotaHawaii
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
14.2
25.1
25.3
33.3
12
Percent of Population Age 25 and Older with
No High School Diploma
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2000
0
10
20
30
11.7
19.6
25.9
27.1
Mississippi
KentuckyLouisianaW
est VirginiaAlabam
aArkansasTexasTennesseeSouth CarolinaCaliforniaRhode IslandNorth CarolinaG
eorgiaNew M
exicoNew YorkFloridaUnited StatesO
klahoma
NevadaArizonaM
issouriIllinoisVirginiaPennsylvaniaNew JerseyIndianaDelawareO
hioM
ichiganM
arylandNorth DakotaConnecticutSouth DakotaHawaiiIdahoM
assachusettsO
regonW
isconsinM
aineKansasIowaVerm
ontNebraskaColoradoW
ashingtonM
ontanaNew Ham
pshireUtahW
yoming
Minnesota
Alaska
13
Percent of Adults Age 25-64 with a Bachelor’s Degree or
Higher, 2000
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2000
Massachusetts
ColoradoConnecticutM
arylandNew JerseyVirginiaVerm
ontNew Ham
pshireM
innesotaNew YorkW
ashingtonIllinoisRhode IslandHawaiiKansasCaliforniaUtahNebraskaO
regonDelawareM
ontanaUnited StatesG
eorgiaNorth DakotaAlaskaPennsylvaniaW
isconsinM
aineArizonaTexasNew M
exicoSouth DakotaM
issouriNorth CarolinaIowaFloridaM
ichiganW
yoming
IdahoO
hioO
klahoma
South CarolinaIndianaTennesseeAlabam
aLouisianaNevadaKentuckyArkansasM
ississippiW
est Virginia
0
10
20
30
40 37.1
16.5
18.8
26.5
14
Bottom Line:
Kentucky Has a Very Large Number of
Undereducated Adults.
435,000 Age 25-64 Had Not Completed
High School—20% of Age Group (2000 Census)
And There Are More on the Way.
15
Student Pipeline, 2002
Source: NCES Common Core Data, NCES IPEDS 2002 Residency and Migration Survey, ACT Institutional Survey, NCES IPEDS Graduation Rate Survey
Of 100 9th Graders, How Many…90.6
61.8
44.2
27.6
68.2
38.6
26.2
17.9
62.3
38.9
25.6
15.3
38.8
26.7
19.0
0
20
40
60
80
100
Graduate from HighSchool
Enter College Enroll SophomoreYear
Graduate Within150% of Program
Time
Age 25-44 withBachelor's Degree
Best Performing StateUnited StatesKentucky
16
High School Graduation Rates—Public High School Graduates
as a Percent of 9th Graders Four Years Earlier, 2000
New JerseyNorth DakotaUtahNebraskaM
innesotaIowaVerm
ontM
ontanaW
isconsinConnecticutIdahoM
aineW
yoming
PennsylvaniaM
assachusettsW
est VirginiaKansasSouth DakotaNew Ham
pshireVirginiaArkansasM
arylandM
issouriO
klahoma
IllinoisW
ashingtonColoradoO
hioRhode IslandNevadaCaliforniaM
ichiganIndianaO
regonUnited StatesKentuckyHawaiiAlaskaTexasDelawareNew M
exicoArizonaAlabam
aNorth CarolinaNew YorkLouisianaM
ississippiFloridaTennesseeG
eorgiaSouth Carolina
0
30
60
90
86
.1
67
.16
5.8
51
.0
Source: Tom Mortenson, Postsecondary Opportunity
17
Net Migration by Degree Level and Age Group—Kentucky
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2000 Census; 5% Public Use Microdata Sample (PUMS) Files
22- to 29-Year-Olds 30- to 64-Year-Olds
12,798
737
-1,398
870
1,347
4,978
6,264
-3,000 0 3,000 6,000 9,000 12,000 15,000
36,101
798
3,489
824
6,364
13,760
10,866
0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000
Less than High School
High School
Some College
Associate
Bachelor’s
Graduate/Professional
Total
18
Education and
Workforce Participation
19
Percent of Civilian Population (Age 16 and Older)
Participating in the Workforce, 2003
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
0
20
40
60
80 71
.3
51
.3
62
.3
Minnesota
NebraskaSouth DakotaW
isconsinW
yoming
New Hampshire
North DakotaColoradoVerm
ontIowaUtahAlaskaM
arylandKansasM
issouriG
eorgiaVirginiaIndianaIdahoRhode IslandNevadaM
assachusettsDelawareConnecticutTexasM
aineM
ontanaO
hioHawaiiIllinoisNorth CarolinaUnited StatesNew JerseyPennsylvaniaW
ashingtonO
regonArizonaCaliforniaTennesseeM
ichiganO
klahoma
New Mexico
South CarolinaNew YorkAlabam
aFloridaKentuckyM
ississippiArkansasLouisianaW
est Virginia
58
.2
20
Kentucky Civilians Age 16 and Older in the
Workforce by Education Attainment, 2000
Less than High School
High School Diploma or GED
Some College, No Degree
Associate Degree
Bachelor's Degree
Graduate or Professional Degree
In Civilian Workforce Not in Civilian Workforce
Source: Integrated Public Use Microdata Series 5% sample, Minnesota Population Center; www.ipums.org
Number Percent Number Percent
325,002 36.2 571,769 63.8
649,300 64.0 364,671 36.0
442,167 71.8 173,695 28.2
111,955 80.0 28,074 20.0
229,404 78.6 62,569 21.4
143,938 79.5 37,050 20.5
21
The Economic Returns to
Education in Kentucky
22
Difference in Median Earnings Between a High School
Diploma and an Associate Degree, 2000
Source: U.S. Census Bureau’s Public Use Samples, based on 2000 Census
0
3,000
6,000
9,000
12,000 10
,40
0
4,0
00
8,0
00
TexasCaliforniaConnecticutVirginiaM
ichiganG
eorgiaNevadaDelawareAlaskaHawaiiO
regonArizonaSouth CarolinaNorth CarolinaNew JerseyM
arylandUnited StatesColoradoO
hioTennesseeNew M
exicoO
klahoma
LouisianaKentuckyIllinoisIndianaNew YorkVerm
ontNew Ham
pshireAlabam
aM
issouriW
ashingtonM
innesotaRhode IslandFloridaIdahoM
ississippiW
est VirginiaW
isconsinM
ainePennsylvaniaM
assachusettsArkansasKansasSouth DakotaNebraskaUtahNorth DakotaW
yoming
IowaM
ontana
6,8
00
23
HB1 in 1997
SB1 in 2000
In the Face of These Challenges,
Kentucky Acted:
24
The Steps Taken to Improve
Adult Education in Kentucky
Make Your Work a
National Model.
25
Key Strengths
Focus on Long-Term (20-Year) Strategy to Improve Quality of Life and Economic Well-Being of State’s Population
Systemic Pre-K through Postsecondary Education
Use of Information to Shape Agenda and Monitor Progress
Adult Education Seen as Integral to All Other Levels and Issues
Sustained Over Significant Political and Economic Change
(continued)
26
Key Strengths (cont.)
Focus on People, not Providers (Counties as Units for Improvement
Emphasis on Partnerships with Employers and Institutions of Postsecondary Education, and Links to Workforce Development
Emphasis on Competencies Necessary for Employment and Continuing (Lifelong) Learning
Use of Incentives Linked to Performance in Meeting Statewide and County Goals
(continued)
27
Key Strengths (cont.)
Capacity to:
Lead a Statewide Strategy» At the Highest Level of State Leadership
» Cutting Across Sectors and Agencies
» Drawing on All Available Providers and Resources
Develop and Sustain Partnerships, Especially with Employers
Sustain Attention to a Strategic Agenda Over Changes in Economy and Election Cycles
28
Perhaps Most Important of All…
Explicitly a Kentucky Program
Not a State Implementation of a Federal Program
Kentucky Has Created an Adult Education System
That Is:
29
As a Result of Your Combined
Efforts, Kentucky Has Made
Remarkable Progress.
30
Low Adult Secondary Education
57%
86%
57%
46%45%
40%41%39%
61%
67%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06
Target Results
Source: Kentucky Adult Education Core Indicator Performance Measures (www.kyae.ky.gov/performance)
31
Low Advanced ESL
47%47%
38%39%
35%37%
32%
35%
45%
53%
46%
30%
40%
50%
60%
1999-2000 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06
Target Results
Source: Kentucky Adult Education Core Indicator Performance Measures (www.kyae.ky.gov/performance)
32
Placement in Postsecondary Education or Training
69%68%58%
50%46%
35%30%
77%74%73%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06
Target Results
Source: Kentucky Adult Education Core Indicator Performance Measures (www.kyae.ky.gov/performance)
33
Placement in Unsubsidized Employment
60%
81%
46%42%
30%27%
25%
52%
72%67%
74%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
1999-2000 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06
Target Results
Source: Kentucky Adult Education Core Indicator Performance Measures (www.kyae.ky.gov/performance)
34
Retention in Unsubsidized Employment
65%
96%
56%
50%48%
40%
30%
94%90%
80%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06
Target Results
Source: Kentucky Adult Education Core Indicator Performance Measures (www.kyae.ky.gov/performance)
35
GED Completion
70%
80%
57%
50%48%
55%
50%
62%
67%66%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06
Target Results
Source: Kentucky Adult Education Core Indicator Performance Measures (www.kyae.ky.gov/performance)
36
Enrollment in Adult Education Programs
125,000
100,00090,000
75,000
60,00050,000
115,000
120,051
51,117
109,880
86,413
62,734
0
25,000
50,000
75,000
100,000
125,000
150,000
1999-2000 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06
Target Results
Source: Kentucky Adult Education Core Indicator Performance Measures (www.kyae.ky.gov/performance)
37
This Is a Time to
Celebrate Success.
And to Redouble Efforts—the Job
Is Far from Done.
38
Meeting Adult Educational Goals in Kentucky—
GED Graduates
Source: Kentucky Adult Education Core Indicator Performance Measures (www.kyae.ky.gov/performance)
60,31550,57541,12326,472
12,533
0
75,000
150,000
225,000
300,000
375,000
450,000
FY2000 FY2001 FY2002 FY2003 FY2004
Number of GEDs Needed = 435,000