the impact of shale oil production growth in the us · 2015. 2. 24. · jan-2000 oct-2000 jul-2001...

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The Impact of Shale Oil Production Growth in the US19 May 2014

19 May 2014

Presentation to IMSF, CopenhagenBy Selena Yan, Senior Analyst

www.clarksons.com 2

The material and the information (including, without limitation, any future rates) contained herein (together, the "Information") are provided by H. Clarkson & Co. Ltd ("Clarksons") for general information purposes.

The Information is drawn from Clarksons' database and other sources. Clarksons advises that: (i) any Information extracted from Clarksons' database is derived from estimates or subjective judgments; (ii) any Information extracted from the databases of other maritime data collection agencies may differ from the Information extracted from Clarksons' database; (iii) whilst Clarksons has taken reasonable care in the compilation of the Information and believes it to be accurate and correct, data compilation is subject to limited audit and validation procedures and may accordingly contain errors; (iv) the provision of the Information does not obviate any need to make appropriate further enquiries; (v) the provision of the Information is not an endorsement of any commercial policies and/or any conclusions by Clarksons and its 'connected persons', and is not intended to recommend any decision by the recipient; (vi) shipping is a variable and cyclical business and any forecasting concerning it may not be accurate. Any future rates contained herein are only estimates. Clarksons and its connected persons make no representations or warranties of any kind, express or implied about the completeness, accuracy, reliability, suitability or availability with respect to the Information. Any reliance placed on such Information is therefore strictly at the recipient's own risk.

This Information is confidential and is solely for the internal use of the recipient. Neither the whole nor any part of the Information may be disclosed to, or used or relied upon by, any other person or used for any other purpose without the prior written consent of Clarksons. Especially, the information is not to be used in any document for the purposes of raising finance whether by way of debt or equity. All intellectual property rights are fully reserved by Clarksons and/or its licensors.

To the extent permitted by law, Clarksons and its connected persons shall not be liable to the recipient or any third party for any loss or damage of any kind arising out of or in connection with the Information, including without limitation any direct, special, indirect or consequential damages (eg damage for loss of business or loss of profits) whether caused by tort (including negligence), breach of contract or otherwise, even if foreseeable. These exclusions do not apply to (i) death or personal injury caused by the negligence of Clarksons and its connected persons or (ii) the liability of Clarksons and its connected persons for fraudulent misrepresentation.

In this disclaimer 'connected persons' means, in relation to Clarksons, its ultimate holding company, the shareholders, subsidiaries and subsidiary undertakings of its ultimate holding company and the respective directors, officers, employees and agents of each of them.

This disclaimer shall be governed by and construed in accordance with English law.

H. CLARKSON & CO. LTD, ST. MAGNUS HOUSE, 3 LOWER THAMES STREET, LONDON, EC3R 6HE

19 May 2014

The Impact of Shale Oil Production Growth in the US | IMSF, Copenhagen

Disclaimer

www.clarksons.com 3

What is Shale Oil

19 May 2014


• Shale oil (Light Tight Oil) refers to light crude oil produced from shale, or other very low-permeability rocks, by using the same horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing technologies used in production of shale gas.

• Oil shale is a fine-grained sedimentary rock containing a waxy organic known as Kerogen.

• Shale oil and oil shale differs by the API gravity and viscosity of the fluids, as well as the method of extraction. Oil Shale

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Hydraulic Fracturing & Horizontal Drilling

19 May 2014


Source: EIA

Greater length of producing formation exposed to the wellbore in a horizontal well A than in a vertical well B

www.clarksons.com 519 May 2014


Source: EIAIncludes both gas and oil plays

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Data Source: EIA

US Crude Oil Production

0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1.0

Jan-

2000

Oct

-200

0Ju

l-200

1A

pr-2

002

Jan-

2003

Oct

-200

3Ju

l-200

4A

pr-2

005

Jan-

2006

Oct

-200

6Ju

l-200

7A

pr-2

008

Jan-

2009

Oct

-200

9Ju

l-201

0A

pr-2

011

Jan-

2012

Oct

-201

2Ju

l-201

3

Mill

ion

bpd

2008: 170kbpd2013: 858kbpd

19 May 2014


North Dakoda

0.00.20.40.60.81.01.21.41.61.82.02.22.42.62.83.0

Jan-

2000

Oct

-200

0Ju

l-200

1A

pr-2

002

Jan-

2003

Oct

-200

3Ju

l-200

4A

pr-2

005

Jan-

2006

Oct

-200

6Ju

l-200

7A

pr-2

008

Jan-

2009

Oct

-200

9Ju

l-201

0A

pr-2

011

Jan-

2012

Oct

-201

2Ju

l-201

3

Mill

ion

bpd

2008: 1.1mbpd2013: 2.56mbpd

Texas

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0

2

4

6

8

10

1900

1905

1910

1915

1920

1925

1930

1935

1940

1945

1950

1955

1960

1965

1970

1975

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

Mill

ion

bpd

EIA ESTIMATES

US Crude Oil Production – Annual Averages

19 May 2014


Data source: EIA. Updated May 2014

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North American Oil Market

19 May 2014


U.S. & Canadian Supply, Demand and Refining Capacity

0

5

10

15

20

25

1965

1967

1969

1971

1973

1975

1977

1979

1981

1983

1985

1987

1989

1991

1993

1995

1997

1999

2001

2003

2005

2007

2009

2011

Mill

ion

bpd

Demand Refinery Capacity Supply

Data source: EIA & BP StatsU.S. and Canadian Supply includes shale oil, oil from oil sands and NGLs, excludes biofuels

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-870

90

80

-80

110

-190

1430

-1000 0 1000 2000

OPEC

Africa

Latin America

Asia & Oceania

FSU & Eastern Europe

Europe

North America

kbpd -380

-40

-10

90

200

-100

1370

-500 0 500 1000 1500

OPEC

Africa

Latin America

Asia & Oceania

FSU & Eastern Europe

Europe

North America

kbpd

Oil Supply Growth*

19 May 2014


2013 2014

Updated to May 2014* Shaded Areas are Non-OPEC onlyData source: EIA

www.clarksons.com 10

US Crude Oil Imports

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

2005

-Q1

2005

-Q3

2006

-Q1

2006

-Q3

2007

-Q1

2007

-Q3

2008

-Q1

2008

-Q3

2009

-Q1

2009

-Q3

2010

-Q1

2010

-Q3

2011

-Q1

2011

-Q3

2012

-Q1

2012

-Q3

2013

-Q1

2013

-Q3

Mill

ion

bpd

Middle East Africa EuropeLatin America Canada RoW

19 May 2014


Data Source: EIA

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

Jan-

08A

pr-0

8Ju

l-08

Oct

-08

Jan-

09A

pr-0

9Ju

l-09

Oct

-09

Jan-

10A

pr-1

0Ju

l-10

Oct

-10

Jan-

11A

pr-1

1Ju

l-11

Oct

-11

Jan-

12A

pr-1

2Ju

l-12

Oct

-12

Jan-

13A

pr-1

3Ju

l-13

Oct

-13

Jan-

14

Mill

ion

bpd

Heavy Medium Light

US Crude Seaborne Imports by Type

www.clarksons.com

US Crude Spot Market Imports

19 May 2014


Data source: Clarksons

11

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Mill

ion

tonn

es

Aframax Suezmax VLCC

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Changing Crude and Fuel Oil Trade Patterns

19 May 2014


Surplus Atlantic Basin crude and fuel oil moving to Asia

Data source: Clarksons

12

02468

101214161820

Jan-

00Ju

n-00

Nov

-00

Apr

-01

Sep-

01Fe

b-02

Jul-0

2D

ec-0

2M

ay-0

3O

ct-0

3M

ar-0

4A

ug-0

4Ja

n-05

Jun-

05N

ov-0

5A

pr-0

6Se

p-06

Feb-

07Ju

l-07

Dec

-07

May

-08

Oct

-08

Mar

-09

Aug

-09

Jan-

10Ju

n-10

Nov

-10

Apr

-11

Sep-

11Fe

b-12

Jul-1

2D

ec-1

2M

ay-1

3O

ct-1

3M

ar-1

4

Mill

ion

tonn

es

AframaxSuezmaxVLCC

Crude / DPP Spot fixture volumes West to East


Crude Prices

19 May 2014


Data Source: Reuters

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

Jan-

13

Feb-

13

Mar

-13

Apr

-13

May

-13

Jun-

13

Jul-1

3

Aug

-13

Sep-

13

Oct

-13

Nov

-13

Dec

-13

Jan-

14

Feb-

14

Mar

-14

US$

/bar

rel

WTI LLS Bakken Dated Brent


US Refinery Utilisation

19 May 2014


Data source: EIA

50

55

60

65

70

75

80

85

90

95

100

7.8

8.0

8.2

8.4

8.6

8.8

9.0

9.2

Jan

-200

7Ju

l-20

07Ja

n-2

008

Jul-

2008

Jan

-200

9Ju

l-20

09Ja

n-2

010

Jul-

2010

Jan

-201

1Ju

l-20

11Ja

n-2

012

Jul-

2012

Jan

-201

3Ju

l-20

13Ja

n-2

014

% u

tilis

atio

n

Mill

ion

bpd

Operable Crude Oil Distillation Capacity

Percent Utilization of Refinery Operable Capacity

50

55

60

65

70

75

80

85

90

95

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2.0

Jan

-200

7Ju

l-20

07Ja

n-2

008

Jul-

2008

Jan

-200

9Ju

l-20

09Ja

n-2

010

Jul-

2010

Jan

-201

1Ju

l-20

11Ja

n-2

012

Jul-

2012

Jan

-201

3Ju

l-20

13Ja

n-2

014

% u

tilis

atio

n

Mill

ion

bpd

Operable Crude Oil Distillation Capacity

Percent Utilization of Refinery Operable Capacity

US East Coast US Gulf


US Petroleum Products Trade

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

2000

-Q1

2000

-Q4

2001

-Q3

2002

-Q2

2003

-Q1

2003

-Q4

2004

-Q3

2005

-Q2

2006

-Q1

2006

-Q4

2007

-Q3

2008

-Q2

2009

-Q1

2009

-Q4

2010

-Q3

2011

-Q2

2012

-Q1

2012

-Q4

2013

-Q3

Mill

ion

bpd

Gasoline Kerosene DistillateFuel Oil Ethanol Production

19 May 2014


0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

2000

-Q1

2000

-Q4

2001

-Q3

2002

-Q2

2003

-Q1

2003

-Q4

2004

-Q3

2005

-Q2

2006

-Q1

2006

-Q4

2007

-Q3

2008

-Q2

2009

-Q1

2009

-Q4

2010

-Q3

2011

-Q2

2012

-Q1

2012

-Q4

2013

-Q3

Mill

ion

bpd

Gasoline Kerosene Distillate Fuel Oil

ExportsImports

Data Source: EIA


US Gasoline Exports by Regions

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

Jan-

00M

ay-0

0Se

p-00

Jan-

01M

ay-0

1Se

p-01

Jan-

02M

ay-0

2Se

p-02

Jan-

03M

ay-0

3Se

p-03

Jan-

04M

ay-0

4Se

p-04

Jan-

05M

ay-0

5Se

p-05

Jan-

06M

ay-0

6Se

p-06

Jan-

07M

ay-0

7Se

p-07

Jan-

08M

ay-0

8Se

p-08

Jan-

09M

ay-0

9Se

p-09

Jan-

10M

ay-1

0Se

p-10

Jan-

11M

ay-1

1Se

p-11

Jan-

12M

ay-1

2Se

p-12

Jan-

13M

ay-1

3Se

p-13

Jan-

14

Thou

sand

bpd

Canada Mexico Latin America Europe Africa FSU Middle East Far East Oceania

19 May 2014


Data Source: EIA


US Distillate Fuel Oil Exports by Regions

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

Jan-

00M

ay-0

0Se

p-00

Jan-

01M

ay-0

1Se

p-01

Jan-

02M

ay-0

2Se

p-02

Jan-

03M

ay-0

3Se

p-03

Jan-

04M

ay-0

4Se

p-04

Jan-

05M

ay-0

5Se

p-05

Jan-

06M

ay-0

6Se

p-06

Jan-

07M

ay-0

7Se

p-07

Jan-

08M

ay-0

8Se

p-08

Jan-

09M

ay-0

9Se

p-09

Jan-

10M

ay-1

0Se

p-10

Jan-

11M

ay-1

1Se

p-11

Jan-

12M

ay-1

2Se

p-12

Jan-

13M

ay-1

3Se

p-13

Jan-

14

Thou

sand

bpd

Canada Mexico Latin America Europe Africa FSU Middle East Far East Oceania

19 May 2014


Data Source: EIA


Thank You

19 May 2014



US Crude Oil Exports by Destination

19 May 2014


Data Source: EIA

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

14019

93

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

Thou

sand

bpd

Others

U.S. Virgin Islands

Taiwan

Korea

Japan

China

Canada


Exemptions to the US crude oil export ban

19 May 2014


Source: EIA

Crude oil derived from fields under the State waters of Alaska's Cook Inlet;

Alaskan North Slope crude oil;

Certain domestically produced crude oil destined for Canada, for consumption therein;

Shipments to U.S. territories;

Up to an average of 25,000 bbl/d of California heavy crude oil;

In connection with refining or exchange of Strategic Petroleum Reserve oil;

Foreign-origin crude oil where, based on written documentation satisfactory to BIS, the exporter can demonstrate that the oil is not of U.S. origin and has not been commingled with oil of U.S. origin;

Exports that are consistent with findings made by the President under an applicable statute;


US Spot Clean Loadings by Vessel Type

19 May 2014


0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Mill

ion

Tonn

es

Mill

ion

tonn

e-da

ys

Handy MR Pmax/LR1 Other Cargo Volume

* Laden days based on 14 knotsData Source: Clarksons


US Crude Oil Production

19 May 2014


Data source: EIA

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

Jan-

2000

Oct

-200

0Ju

l-200

1A

pr-2

002

Jan-

2003

Oct

-200

3Ju

l-200

4A

pr-2

005

Jan-

2006

Oct

-200

6Ju

l-200

7A

pr-2

008

Jan-

2009

Oct

-200

9Ju

l-201

0A

pr-2

011

Jan-

2012

Oct

-201

2Ju

l-201

3

Mill

ion

bpd

OthersFederal Offshore - Gulf of MexicoCaliforniaAlaskaTexasNorth Dakota

-500 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000

Wyoming

Utah

California

Colorado

Offshore Gulf of Mexico

New Mexico

Oklahoma

Alaska

North Dakota

Texas

bpd

Main Producing States/Areas Changes in Annual Output ‘08-’13

the impact of shale oil production growth in the us · 2015. 2. 24. · jan-2000 oct-2000 jul-2001...

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