the impact of land use changes on the future tree distributions

The Impact of Land Use Changes on the Future Tree Distributions

Presented by Presented by

Jin-Oh KimJin-Oh Kim

Community and Regional PlanningCommunity and Regional Planning

School of ArchitectureSchool of Architecture

University of Texas at AustinUniversity of Texas at Austin

- Biogenic Volatile Organic Compounds (BVOC)Biogenic Volatile Organic Compounds (BVOC) forms forms ozone in ground-level when mixed with nitrogen oxides from ozone in ground-level when mixed with nitrogen oxides from anthropogenic sources.anthropogenic sources.

- Differences in climatology including Differences in climatology including temperaturetemperature and and cloud cloud covercover, and , and land useland use strongly affect biogenic emissions. strongly affect biogenic emissions.

- Few studies have focused on the relationship between Few studies have focused on the relationship between land land use patternsuse patterns and its impact on spatial variation in and its impact on spatial variation in biogenic biogenic emissionsemissions densities. densities.

Introduction

Land Development

Disaster (fire, flood, etc), disease (oak wilt)

Natural Environment (soil, water, temperature etc.)

Trees (oak)BVOC+Nitrogen Oxides

Temperature, Cloud cover

Relationship of Trees and Land Development in Air Quality Context

Biogenic Volatile Organic Compounds

VOC

Volatile Organic Compounds

HumanHealth

- In Texas, In Texas, vegetation and forests in eastern and central Texasvegetation and forests in eastern and central Texas are the main sources of emissions of BVOC. are the main sources of emissions of BVOC.

- Even though most plants emit some VOCs, the largest emitters are Even though most plants emit some VOCs, the largest emitters are oaks, pines, sweet gums, eucalyptus, and oaks, pines, sweet gums, eucalyptus, and poplarspoplars. .

Problem Statements

Density Map of Biogenic Emission in Texas in 1997 (EPA)

High Emission Density

1. Predict Future Tree Distributions based on Land Use Scenarios

3. Recommendations to Improve Land use Scenarios

Objectives

2. Understanding the Impact of Land Development on Oak Trees

Central Texas region (Travis, Williamson, Bastrop, Hays, Caldwell)

Research Areas

Data Sources

Texas Vegetation Map (From Dr. David Allen) Land Development Scenario Maps (Dr. Barbara Parmenter, Envision Central Texas Project) USDA Soils Data for Central Texas Area (Statsgo State Soil Database) Color infra-red Digital OrthophotoTNRIS, http://www.tnris.state.tx.us/)

Live Oak, Ashe Juniper Parks

Post Oak, Woods, Forest and Grass

Post Oak Woods and Forest

Live Oak, Mesquite, Ashe Juniper

Analysis of Vegetation Types in Central Texas

Scenario A Scenario B

Scenario C Scenario D

Impact of Land Development on Trees

Tree Distribution in 2001

Land Development Scenarios Proposed by Envision Central Texas Project



Projection of Future Land Development Impact on Trees

Trees in 2001



Future Land Development Impact vs. Trees

DowntownTownResidentialActivity CenterLarge LotCommercialIndustrial



Tree Existing Areas Predicted to be Developed

DowntownTownResidentialActivity CenterLarge LotCommercialIndustrial



Development Types where Trees exist under Scenarios

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1. Rural2. Large Lot3. Conservation rural

1. Residential2. Rural3. Large Lot

1. Large Lot2. Residential3. Rural

1. Conservation Rural

2. Activity Center3. Rural

Prediction of Tree existing Areas

Tree Area to be Preserved(under Scenarios)

Pervious Cover Assumption (%)

Tree Keeping Assumption (%)

Actual Area of Trees to be Preserved

Arc GIS Raster Calculations

Trees predicted to be preserved for each development type under Scenario A

Development TypesArea

(square feet)

Pervious cover (%)

Pervious cover (square feet)

% of Tree keeping

(assumption)

Area of TreePreserved

Rural Housing 1464487200 95.37 1396681442.64 80.00 1117345154.11

Large Lot 1109263121 82.08 910483169.95 60.00 546289901.97

Conservation Rural 601674278 91.91 552998829.28 90.00 497698946.35

Residential Subdivision 434001387 72.67 315388807.85 50.00 157694403.92

Activity Center 118253105 10.37 12262847.02 40.00 4905138.81

Highway Commercial 113237539 5.68 6431892.23 40.00 2572756.89

Industrial / Office Park 71176499 20.00 14235299.71 50.00 7117649.86

Town 19248929 34.27 6596608.06 50.00 3298304.03

City 2401275 29.13 699491.37 50.00 349745.69

Downtown 735875 4.60 33850.23 50.00 16925.11

ssumption ssumption

Qualitative Research needs to be conducted

Areas where Trees exist predicted to be developed under Scenario A

Oak Tree Distributions

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and Gras

Live Oak, AsheJuniper Parks

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Forest

Live Oak,Mesquite, Ashe

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1. Post Oak, Woods, Forest and Grass2. Live Oak, ashe Junifer Parks3. Post Oak Woods and Forest

Soil Composition in Oak Tree Areas

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Land Development Impact on Oak Trees



Future Development vs. Oak trees



Future Development within Oak tree area

Conclusion & Future Work

Some highly urbanized area was revealed in dense oak tree areas

Need to focus specific

types of land development

to avoid air quality

deterioration

the impact of land use changes on the future tree distributions

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