the impact of electricity of economic development: a...
TRANSCRIPT
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David Stern, ANU Paul Burke, ANU Stephan Bruns, U. Gött ingen
The Impact of Electricity of Economic Development: A Macroeconomic Perspective
Research and Matchmaking Conference, Washington DC, 3 November 2016
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Research Questions
� Has electrification prolonged or
accelerated growth in developing
countries?
� How serious do electricity supply
problems have to be, to be a
serious constraint on growth?
� What can be learnt from countries
that were historically successful in
electrification?
The Impact of Electricity on Economic Development: A Macroeconomic Perspective
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What Does Theory Tell Us?
� Energy essential input, hard to substitute other inputs for it
– Therefore, energy can be a constraint when scarce
– Energy (use, quality, productivity) contributed more to growth in developed
countries in past
– May contribute more to growth in developing than developed countries
The Impact of Electricity on Economic Development: A Macroeconomic Perspective
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What Does Theory Tell Us?
� Energy essential input, hard to substitute other inputs for it
– Therefore, energy can be a constraint when scarce
– Energy (use, quality, productivity) contributed more to growth in developed
countries in past
– May contribute more to growth in developing than developed countries
� Electricity highest quality energy carrier
– More productive, flexible, clean than other energy, unique applications
– Providing reliable electricity supply challenging, requires investment in peak
capacity
– Economies of scale in generation – oil fired power in small/island countries
The Impact of Electricity on Economic Development: A Macroeconomic Perspective
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What Does the Data Tell Us?
The Impact of Electricity on Economic Development: A Macroeconomic Perspective
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10
100
1000
10000
100000
100 1000 10000 100000 1000000
Elec
tric
ity
Use
per
Cap
ita
kWh
GDP per Capita 2011 PPP Dollars
ElectricityUseandGDPperCapita
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What Does the Data Tell Us?
� 1% increase in GDP associated with 0.8% increase in electricity use
– Electricity use grows 2 % p.a. in a country with no economic growth!
The Impact of Electricity on Economic Development: A Macroeconomic Perspective
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What Does the Data Tell Us?
� 1% increase in GDP associated with 0.8% increase in electricity use
– Electricity use grows 2 % p.a. in a country with no economic growth!
� Electricity access, reliability strongly positively associated with GDP per capita
– Weak correlation with growth (-ve for reliability)
The Impact of Electricity on Economic Development: A Macroeconomic Perspective
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1
2
3
4
5
6
7
100 1000 10000 100000
WEF
Rel
iab
ility
of
Elec
tric
ity
Su
pp
ly
GDP per Capita 2011 PPP Dollars
ReliabilityofElectricitySupplyandGDPperCapita
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What Does the Data Tell Us?
� 1% increase in GDP associated with 0.8% increase in electricity use
– Electricity use grows 2 % p.a. in a country with no economic growth!
� Electricity access, reliability strongly positively associated with GDP per capita
– Weak correlation with growth (-ve for reliability)
� Electricity costs high relative to GDP in poorer countries
The Impact of Electricity on Economic Development: A Macroeconomic Perspective
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0
0.02
0.04
0.06
0.08
0.1
0.12
0.14
0.16
0.18
0.2
100 1000 10000 100000 1000000
Elec
tric
ity
Val
ue
/ G
DP
GDP per Capita 2011 PPP Dollars
ValueofElectricity/GDP
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Does Electricity Use Cause Growth?
� More than 500 papers use time series modeling to test for Granger causality or
cointegration between energy or electricity use and GDP
The Impact of Electricity on Economic Development: A Macroeconomic Perspective
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Does Electricity Use Cause Growth?
� More than 500 papers use time series modeling to test for Granger causality or
cointegration between energy or electricity use and GDP
� Literature very inconclusive – 40% find causality in each direction
The Impact of Electricity on Economic Development: A Macroeconomic Perspective
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Does Electricity Use Cause Growth?
� More than 500 papers use time series modeling to test for Granger causality or
cointegration between energy or electricity use and GDP
� Literature very inconclusive – 40% find causality in each direction
� Meta-analysis: Causality from GDP to energy (controlling for energy price)
The Impact of Electricity on Economic Development: A Macroeconomic Perspective
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Does Electricity Use Cause Growth?
� More than 500 papers use time series modeling to test for Granger causality or
cointegration between energy or electricity use and GDP
� Literature very inconclusive – 40% find causality in each direction
� Meta-analysis: Causality from GDP to energy (controlling for energy price)
� Why?
– Effect of energy on growth < effect of income on energy demand
– Energy efficiency improvements reduce energy use increase GDP
The Impact of Electricity on Economic Development: A Macroeconomic Perspective
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Does Electricity Infrastructure Cause Growth?
� Few methodologically sound
studies
� Best studies combine electricity
infrastructure with other
infrastructure
� Estimated effect on GDP of 1%
increase in electricity infrastructure:
0.03%-0.1%
The Impact of Electricity on Economic Development: A Macroeconomic Perspective
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What About Electricity Reliability?
� Again, few well-designed studies
� Andersen and Dalgaard (2013): 1%
increase in outages per month è
0.018% reduction in rate of
economic growth
� Calderón and Servén (2010): 1%
increase in distribution &
transmission losses: 0.05%
reduction in GDP
The Impact of Electricity on Economic Development: A Macroeconomic Perspective
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What Can We Learn From Country Case Studies?
� Selection of countries: – GDP per capita 1971 < $2,500 – Electricity access 2013 > 95% – Electricity consumption 2013 > 1
MWh per capita – Population > 1 million
The Impact of Electricity on Economic Development: A Macroeconomic Perspective
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What Can We Learn From Country Case Studies?
� Selection of countries: – GDP per capita 1971 < $2,500 – Electricity access 2013 > 95% – Electricity consumption 2013 > 1
MWh per capita – Population > 1 million
� South Korea, China, Egypt,
Thailand, Paraguay, Vietnam
The Impact of Electricity on Economic Development: A Macroeconomic Perspective
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What Can We Learn From Country Case Studies?
� Selection of countries: – GDP per capita 1971 < $2,500 – Electricity access 2013 > 95% – Electricity consumption 2013 > 1
MWh per capita – Population > 1 million
� South Korea, China, Egypt,
Thailand, Paraguay, Vietnam
� Evidence mainly anecdotal
The Impact of Electricity on Economic Development: A Macroeconomic Perspective
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What Can We Learn From Country Case Studies?
� Selection of countries: – GDP per capita 1971 < $2,500 – Electricity access 2013 > 95% – Electricity consumption 2013 > 1
MWh per capita – Population > 1 million
� South Korea, China, Egypt,
Thailand, Paraguay, Vietnam
� Evidence mainly anecdotal
� Egypt: 5.5% economic growth rate
(p.c.), electricity quality 2.7
The Impact of Electricity on Economic Development: A Macroeconomic Perspective
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What Can We Learn From Country Case Studies?
� Best performers in Sub-Saharan Africa in electricity access (> 1 million
population):
– Gabon
– South Africa
– Ghana
The Impact of Electricity on Economic Development: A Macroeconomic Perspective
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What Can We Learn From Country Case Studies?
� Best performers in Sub-Saharan Africa in electricity access (> 1 million
population):
– Gabon
– South Africa
– Ghana
� Economic growth rate 1971-2013: 0.7-2.2%
� Electricity quality 2013: 2.3-3.6
– World Bank, IMF: quality is a constraint
The Impact of Electricity on Economic Development: A Macroeconomic Perspective
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What Can We Learn From Country Case Studies?
� Best performers in Sub-Saharan Africa in electricity access (> 1 million
population):
– Gabon
– South Africa
– Ghana
� Economic growth rate 1971-2013: 0.7-2.2%
� Electricity quality 2013: 2.3-3.6
– World Bank, IMF: quality is a constraint
� But rapid growth recently in Ethiopia, Kenya…
The Impact of Electricity on Economic Development: A Macroeconomic Perspective
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Questions for Further Research
� What is the effect of electricity supply disruptions on economic growth?
� Does electricity sector success boost economic growth in country-level panel
datasets?
� How robust is the effect of electricity infrastructure on economic growth?
� Are the key findings in the electricity-growth literature replicable?
� How can electricity be a “binding constraint” on economic growth?
� Can a new generation of time series models of energy and growth better
identify the role of energy in growth?
The Impact of Electricity on Economic Development: A Macroeconomic Perspective
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Thank you Thank you