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www.aipeg.or.id
AIPEG
Reposi'oningTradePolicyforAgriculturalCommodi'esTi$kAnasTradeAdviserAIPEG
August, 2017
www.aipeg.or.id
AIPEG AIPEG Key Messages
2
• Indonesia’simportpolicyforagriculturalcommodi$esiscomplicatedandcostlytoadminister
• Quotas,licensingrequirements,recommenda$onle@ersandseasonalrestric$onsappliedinaddi$ontoimporttariffs
• Complicatedimportrestric$onsresultedinhighdomes$cprice
• Exportsalsorestrictedwiththeobjec$veofensuringdomes$csupplyfordownstreamproducers
• However,exportrestric$onshurtfarmers
www.aipeg.or.id
AIPEG AIPEG Key messages
3
• Movetoalesscomplicatedtradepolicy:• Onlyusetariffstorestrictimports
• Reducestransac$oncosts• Improvestransparency,efficiencyandcompe$$veness
• Lowersprices
• Nurturedownstreammanufacturingwithoutsacrificingprimarycommodi$esfarmers/producers
• Eliminateexportrestric$ons• Paya@en$ontotherootoftheproblemfordownstreammanufacturingonthesupplyside
www.aipeg.or.id
AIPEG
Reviewing Trade Policy for Agricultural Commodities
www.aipeg.or.id
AIPEG AIPEG Trade Policy for Agricultural Commodities
5
• Bans• Restric$ons• Tariffs(includingseasonaltariff)• Nontariffmeasures/barriers• Quotas• Licensingrequirements
Import
• Bans• ExportTaxes
Export
www.aipeg.or.id
AIPEG
Import Policy
www.aipeg.or.id
AIPEG AIPEG Many food commodities are subject to...
7
Quotas
Non-automa$clicensing(includingrecommenda$onle@ers)
Tariffs
www.aipeg.or.id
AIPEG Indonesia facing high beef prices compared to other countries and international price
8
Source:BPS,WorldBank,CEIC
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000Jan-07
Jul-0
7
Jan-08
Jul-0
8
Jan-09
Jul-0
9
Jan-10
Jul-1
0
Jan-11
Jul-1
1
Jan-12
Jul-1
2
Jan-13
Jul-1
3
Jan-14
Jul-1
4
Jan-15
Jul-1
5
Jan-16
Jul-1
6
Jan-17
IDR/kg BeefPricesinIndonesiaInterna$onalPrices
BeefPricesinThailandBeefPricesinPhilippines
Regulatedbeefimportbutnotliveanimal
Regulatedanimalandanimalproductscon$nued
• BeefpricehasbeenincreasingsignificantlyinIndonesiafromaround50,000/kginJan2007toaround110,000/kginJan2017
• It is significantly higher the interna$onal price and neighbor countries(PhilippinesandThailand)
Regulatedanimalandanimalproductsimport(Quotaandlicensing)
Newpolicyonimportofliveca@le:1:5
www.aipeg.or.id
AIPEG Antitrust case of beef imports
9
Source PutusanPerkaraNomor10/KPPU-I/2015
Case KPPUiden$fiedsomebusinessen$$esinJabodetabekviola$ngLawNo5/1999ontheBanofMonopolis$cPrac$cesandUnfairBusinessCompe$$on.
Summary 1) Importtakesapproximately80%ofbeefconsump$oninJakarta;65%inJabodetabek.
2) Despitethe26enterprisessuppliedbeefthroughthegovernmentallocatedquota(startedca.Sept2011),thepoten$alaffilia$onmoveamongstthesupplierhadneverbeenan$cipated.
3) APFINDOdecidedtheimportquotaforeachfeedloter.4) 6affiliatedgroupssupplied58%ofbeefinthemarketin2014and
thenroseto61%inQ32015.5) Althoughtheimportedvolumeofbeefunchangedbetween2009
and2014,itspriceperkgwithintheperiodincreasedfromIDR21.5thtoIDR34.5th.Inmid-2013,itreachedIDR38.0th.
6) Itisiden$fiedthattheequilibriumdidnotreflectsupplyanddemand:feedlotercutthesupplytomaintainhighprice.Tradedatarevealedhowtheimportrealiza$onstoodbelowtheallocatedquota(81%in2013,74%in2014).
7) Ontheamermathofthiscase,KPPUcharged31enterprisesbetweenIDR1-25bn.
www.aipeg.or.id
AIPEG AIPEG Similarly…Indonesian consumers face high sugar prices
10
Sugar price
Source:CEIC,WorldBank
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000De
c-06
Jun-07
Dec-07
Jun-08
Dec-08
Jun-09
Dec-09
Jun-10
Dec-10
Jun-11
Dec-11
Jun-12
Dec-12
Jun-13
Dec-13
Jun-14
Dec-14
Jun-15
Dec-15
Jun-16
Dec-16
IDR/kgSugar(Indonesia) Sugar,EU Sugar,US Sugar,world
SugarpriceinIndonesiaishighandhasbeenincreasingsince2008
www.aipeg.or.id
AIPEG AIPEG Bans on corn imports had resulted in high price
11
Pemerintah Diminta Cabut LaranganPemerintah Diminta Cabut LaranganImpor JagungImpor JagungPosted on July 14, 2016 by Hendry Sihaloho in Ekonomi
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Ilustrasi jagung | ist
Duajurai .com, Bandar LampungDuajurai .com, Bandar Lampung – Kementerian Pertanian diminta mencabut PeraturanMenteri Nomor 57 Tahun 2015 tentang Pemasukan dan Pengeluaran Bahan Pakan Asal Tumbuhanke dan dari Wilayah Indonesia, jika tidak ingin harga pangan menjadi mahal.
Menurut Ekonom Universitas Indonesia (UI) Faisal Basri Aturan, aturan yang diteken MenteriPertanian Amran Sulaiman pada 25 November 2015 itu bukan cara yang tepat untuk mendorong
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Jakarta - Harga jagung yang melonjak tinggi di tengah seretnya pasokan,membuat produsen pakan ternak kelimpungan. Kondisi sulit ini semakindiperparah dengan larangan penggunaan impor jagung yang dilakukanKementerian Pertanian (Kementan).
Ketua Umum Gabungan Pengusaha Makanan Ternak (GPMT), Sudirmanmengungkapkan, kelangkaan jagung terjadi setelah panen jagung terlambatimbas dari fenomena kekeringan panjang akibat El Nino. Hal ini membuatharga jagung lokal melonjak hingga 2 kali lipat.
"Jagung di Jawa belum panen, begitu pun dengan daerah Sumatera danSulawesi Utara. Yang baru panen raya itu Sumatera Utara. Di sana hargajagungnya juga sudah Rp 5.500/kg, itu terjadi karena daerah lain terlambatpanen, jadi suplai jagung mengalir ke daerah yang belum panen," jelasnyapada detikFinance, Senin (25/1/2016).
detikFinance / Berita Ekonomi Bisnis / Detail Berita
Senin 25 Jan 2016, 07:47 WIB
Curhat Pengusaha Pakan Ternak: Jagung Lokal Mahal,Jagung Impor DitahanMuhammad Idris - detikFinance
Foto: Reuters
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Jurus Jokowi Genjot DayaSaing Infrastruktur RIKamis, 24 Agu 2017 21:24 WIB
Bakrie Incar Harta KarunEnergi di MadiunKamis, 24 Agu 2017 21:19 WIB
Bukan di Pinggir Jalan,Pedagang Ini Jualan HewanKurban via OnlineKamis, 24 Agu 2017 21:14 WIB
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Daftar detikconnect MasukCari Berita atau Alamat Daftar/MasukPilih Kanal
Mentan Berkomitmen Kendalikan Impor JagungTim VIVA »
Menteri Pertanian (Mentan) Andi Amran SulaimanPhoto :
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VIVA.co.id - Menteri Pertanian (Mentan) Amran Sulaiman bersama Bupati Tuban,
Fahtul Hudan dan Pangdam V Brawijaya, Mayjen TNI Sumardi dan Kepala dinas
provinsi jatim Wibowo Eko Putro melakukan panen jagung di Desa Sumber, Kecamatan
Merakurak, Kabupaten Tuban, Rabu 30 September 2015.
Lahan jagung yang saat ini sedang melakukan panen sebesar 517 hektare (ha) dan
lahan jagung yang akan panen sampai pada bulan Oktober sebesar 733 ha dengan
produktivitasnya 9,2 ton per hektare (ha).
Kehadiran Mentan di lokasi tersebut langsung disambut oleh kelompok Kontak Tani
dan Nelayan Andalan (KTNA) Tuban. Mentan dan rombongan langsung melakukan
panen jagung dan berdialog dengan para petani.
Ketua KTNA yang sekaligus sebagai Kepala Desa Tuwirwetan Setia Budi
menyampaikan, terjadi peningkatan produksi jagung hibrida yang cukup drastis untuk
saat ini. Sebelumnya produksi jagung hibrida hanya mencapai 7 sampai 8 ton per ha,
sedangkan sekarang mencapai 9,2 ton per ha.
Sydney (Return)Sydney (Return)Start FromStart From
PILIHAN REDAKSI
ARTIKEL TERPOPULER
1
2
3
4
BERITA BOLA HAJI⋆
SPORT OTOMOTIF DIGITAL SHOWBIZ GAYA HIDUP BLOG ANTV
Kamis, 24 Agustus 2017 Masukkan Pencarian.....
www.aipeg.or.id
AIPEG Domestic corn price is higher than international price
12
-1,0002,0003,0004,0005,0006,0007,0008,000
HargaInternasional Domes$k* HargaImpor(Value/Volume)
inRupiah
• Theaveragecornproducerpricein2016wasRupiah3,819.84• However,theaverageretailpriceofcornwasRp6988(MOT,EWS)• Withimporttariffofonly5%,even0%forAEC,usersofcornshouldbeableto
getcornatthepriceofRp5000orless
Source.CEIC,MOT
Corn price
www.aipeg.or.id
AIPEG Who suffers from the high food price?
13
Forcorn:• Consumers• Animalfeedindustryanditsdownstreamsectors• Othercorn-basedindustriesanditsdownstreamsectors
Forbeefandsugar:• Consumers• Industriesusingbeefandsugar(foodandbeveragesindustries,hotelandrestaurants)
www.aipeg.or.id
AIPEG
Export Policy
www.aipeg.or.id
AIPEG AIPEG Export ban on rattan
15
Governmentbannedrawra@anexportsin2011(Permendag35/2011)toensuresupplytodomes$cra@anfurnituremanufacturers
Now,rawra@anpriceisRp1500/kg,downfromRp20000/kgin2012
www.aipeg.or.id
AIPEG AIPEG Export Tax on Cocoa Beans
• Cocoabeanshavebeensubjecttoanexporttaxsince2010• Thehigherthepricethehigherexporttaxrate
• Thera$onaleforthispolicyistoensurethesupplyofcocoabeansforthedomes$cprocessors
www.aipeg.or.id
AIPEG AIPEG Justification for Export Tax Policy
• Conceptually, an export tax can be justified to exploit market power (market failure argument)
– A country has a global monopoly over a commodity but it is produced competitively domestically. Under free market conditions, an export tax allows the country to generate rent from its market power
– More generally export tax may increase terms of trade and may potentially promote domestic processing industry
• But export taxes are only effective if a country has market
power – Very large market share in exports and production – Inelastic demand (price increase leads to revenue increase) – No (almost no) substitutes (inelastic supply) – Can be shown that price increased following export tax
www.aipeg.or.id
AIPEG AIPEG Indonesia’s exports of cocoa beans decrease
Share of Indonesia’s export declined from as high as 15% in 2002 to only 1 % in 2016. Indonesia ranks 14th in 2016 from 2nd in 2001..
11%
8%
8%10%
12%
10%11%
13% 12%
5%5%
6%
2%1%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%CocoabeansworldexportsfromIndonesia(%)
Source:Trademap
www.aipeg.or.id
AIPEG AIPEG … and replaced by other countries
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015
US$m
CocoaBeansExports:IndonesiavsTop3Exporters
Côted'Ivoire Ghana Cameroon Indonesia
In the past three years, while other larger exporters increased its exports, Indonesia’s exports continue to drop
Source:Trademap
www.aipeg.or.id
AIPEG AIPEG Increase in processed cocoa export did not significantly compensate decline in bean export
Export value of all processed cocoa after 2010 increased, but still below the export value of cocoa beans before 2010…
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
Thou
sand
s
Cocoabeans,wholeorbroken,raworroasted
Cocoapaste,whetherornotdefa@ed
Cocoabu@er,fatandoil
Cocoapowder,notcontainingaddedsugarorothersweeteningma@er
Processedbean
www.aipeg.or.id
AIPEG AIPEG Export tax policy in 2010 disincentives cocoa bean production…
-100200300400500600700800900
2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015
inth
ousand
ton
Produc$on(Ton)PBS/Private Produc$on(Ton)PBN/Government
Produc$on(Ton)PR/Smallholder
Source:TreeCropEstateSta$s$csofIndonesia2014-2016CocoaDirectorateGeneralofEstateCrops
*2016ispreliminarydata
Indicated by the continued decline in the production of beans
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AIPEG AIPEG Number of cocoa farm workers and cultivation land have declined after 2010
Source:MOA,TreeCropEstateSta$s$csofIndonesia2014-2016CocoaDirectorateGeneralofEstateCrops
*2016ispreliminarydata
-
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
1,660
1,680
1,700
1,720
1,740
1,760
1,780
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016*)
Num
bero
ffarmworkers
Thou
sand
s
Land
(HA)
Thou
sand
s
Land(HA) NumberofFarmWorkers
www.aipeg.or.id
AIPEG AIPEG The domestic processing was growing ….at a lower rate
Annualgrowth2005-2010:52.8%-
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Millions
Produc'onofProcessedCocoa(tons)
Annualgrowth2010-2014:17.7%
Exportsareabout50-60%oftotalproduc6on
Source.BPS Note.ISIC15314+15431+15432
www.aipeg.or.id
AIPEG AIPEG Demand for cocoa beans in the domestic market increased overtime…
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
Thou
sand
s
Thou
sand
s
Produc$on(ton) ImportQuan$$es(Ton)
Produc$on Import
Indicated by increased in imports of beans…. Meanwhile domestic production of cocoa beans tend to decrease
www.aipeg.or.id
AIPEG AIPEG The gap between world price and Indonesia’s producers’ price was widened…
2,9093,137
2,892
2,1961,743 1,869
10%
0%
5%
10%10% 10% 10%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Expo
rtTax(%
)
Price(US$/M
T)
WorldPrice(US$/tonne)*IndonesiaProducerPriceofCocoa(US$/MT)ExportTaxofCocoaBeans(US$/MT)-onaverage**
Source.ICCO,Worlbank,MOA
www.aipeg.or.id
AIPEG Conclusion and Recommendation
26
Conclusion:• Complicated(andnontransparent)importrestric$onhad
resultedinhigherprice• ExportRestric$onResultedinInjurytoFarmers
Recommenda'on:• Abortexportrestric$on• Eliminatenontariffmeasures(i.e.quotaandnon-automa$cimportlicensing)