The ICP 2011 RoundPresented by:

Michel Mouyelo-KatoulaGlobal Manager

International Comparison ProgramWorld Bank

Outline

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I Introduction & objectives for the 2011 round

II Lessons learned from the 2005 round: Innovations and Improvements

III Institutional arrangements

IV Countries’ activities

V PPP aggregation & linking

VI ICP data uses

VII ICP 2011: methodological development & timeframe

VIII The way forward

Part I

Introduction & objectivesfor the 2011 round

3

Part II

Lessons learned from the 2005 round: Innovations and Improvements

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Role of the ICP Executive Board Role of the Technical Advisory

Group Role of the regional coordinators Regional workshops with

countries, global workshops with regions

Partnering arrangements between national statistical offices and regions/global office

Australia, Canada, France, Russia, the UK

…

What worked in ICP 2005

Defining respective roles in governance UNSC, Global Office, Executive Board and TAG

Respective roles of the UNSC, Global Office, Executive Board, and Technical Advisory Group

Agreements with regions/countries more explicitly define requirements for submitting regional and ring data

More explicitly define policies on data access and sharing

Define process to determine methodology for regional results and linking

Strengthen ties between ICP and Eurostat-OECD Separate agreement Mutual representation in regional workshops

Encourage more partnering arrangements Determine protocol with countries when data

collected by regional or global consultants Limit on what countries can do at a time …

Where improvements can be made

7

Lesson learnt from 2005

Quality of 2005 Method

Effective

Not effective

To be improved

Review Survey Tools

Improve Method

Research

Apply 2005

Method

Deploy

DevelopSurvey Tools

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Innovations1. Outreach focus2. An ICP quality assurance framework3. Statistical capacity building4. An ICP Book titled “Measuring the Size of the

World Economy”5. A National Accounts framework for ICP6. A system of economic validation of price and

expenditure data7. Linking Regions through Global Core List Approach

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Methodological Improvements A 600-item Global Core List for household consumption,

equi-representative of all the regions Global core list for household consumption included in

regional lists All countries in the world price the global core list items Equipment list equally representative across the regions

and OECD-Eurostat countries

Most Robust Linking Method

Improved Quality of National

Accounts & Prices

New National Accounts framework Improved GDP expenditures Field prices expected to be more consistent with

national-accounts-embedded prices A comprehensive quality assurance framework being

finalized

Improvements in other areas

Improved methods for health and education A new method being designed for construction A 10-topic research agenda being pursued

Part III

Institutional arrangements

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OECD-EUROSTAT

ICPGovernance

Structure

UNSC

Executive Board

Global Office:Global Manager

+ Staff

World Bank

TAG

AfDB ADB CIS ECLAC ESCWAOECD E/STAT

Countries

Regional Advisory Boards

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12

AfDB ADB CIS ECLAC ESCWA

ICP Global Office at World Bank

PR

ICE

S &

GD

P E

XP.

OECD -EUROSTATPPPS + CORE PRICES

Country Participation and Flow of Data

Global PPPS

CO

RE

PR

ICE

S +

RE

GIO

NA

L P

PP

s

52 Countries 28 Countries 9 Countries ? 14 Countries

PR

ICE

S &

GD

P E

XP.

PR

ICE

S &

GD

P E

XP.

PR

ICE

S &

GD

P E

XP.

PR

ICE

S &

GD

P E

XP.

PR

ICE

S &

GD

P E

XP.

48 Countries 33 Countries

OECDEUROSTAT

More than 180 Countries

Part IV

Countries’ activities

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National Accounts Framework for the ICP

The Framework

Derived from SNA-1993

Set of tables and forms

Piloted in 5 countries

Step-by-step guidelines

Division of workNational Accountants Price Experts

N.A. Activities

Housing

Public Education

Public Health

Expenditures – Price Consistency

Main price survey

Main List Prep.

Equipment

Private Education

Private Health

Comp. Of Empl.

Construction Exp. Constr. pricing

Other pricing

Input Vs Output Methods

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400-800 Household

Items

5-10 Housing Services

100 Health

goods & Services

100 Equipmen

t

5-20 Education Services20

Government

Occupations

20 Constructio

n Items

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q3

Q2

Q4

Q4

Q3

Q4

Intra Country Validati

on

Annual National Average Prices

Price Surveys in 2011

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100 Household Cons. Basic

Headings [BH]

Housing BHs

Health BHs

Equipment BHs

Education BHs

Government BHs

Construction BHs

Country Activities: Estimation of GDP Expenditures

NPISH BHs

Other GDP components

BHs

Review GDP

Classification

Identify Data

Sources

Implement Commodity Flows where

possible

Estimate GDP & Main

Aggregates

Carry out N.A. work

for comparison

resistant areas

Develop vector of 2011 GDP

expenditures

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Part V

PPP aggregation & linking

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Household

Housing

Health

Equipment

Education

Government

Construction

Regional Level: PPP Computation

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Annual National Average Prices

Regional Basic Heading PPPs

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...

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Regional Aggregated

PPPs

All countries in a region

All countries in a region

All countries in a region

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Household

Construction

Global Core List Approach

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Annual National Average Prices for Global Core Items

Global Basic Heading PPPs

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Calibration Factors

All countries in the world

All countries in the world

All countries in the world

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.Regional Basic Heading PPPs

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Global PPPs

All countries in the world

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Part VI

ICP data uses

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Major Uses of PPP

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Major uses of the PPP results at international and regional levels include:• International poverty headcount index (World Bank)• Comparing relative sizes of economies and estimating weighted averages of regional

growth rates (IMF)• Allocation of structural and cohesion funds (European Commission)• Human Development Index (UNDP)• Gender empowerment measures (UNDP)• Health inequality assessment (World Health Organization)• Assessing per capita expenditures in education (U.N. Educational, Scientific & Cultural

Organization)• Monitoring the welfare of children (U.N. Children’s Fund)• Designing effective aid programs (International Organizations)

Other uses include:• Analysis of an economy’s comparative advantage on prices and expenditures of goods

or services (Policy Makers)• Evaluation of investment costs and industry growth potential across countries.• PPP adjusted cost of living allowances (Multinational Corporations, Non-Government

Organizations, International Development Agencies)

Part VII

ICP 2011: methodological development

& timeframe

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Topic Priority Status1. Owner-occupied housing High Adopted 2. Measurement of government outputs High Adopted 3. Survey frameworks High Adopted 4. Construction PPPs High Approach adopted

Ongoing research5. Education High Ongoing research6. Guidelines for the disaggregation of GDP expenditures into basic headings

High Adopted

7. Health services High Ongoing research8. Global Core List for the main price survey High Adopted9. Machinery and equipment High Approach adopted

Ongoing development10. Financial services Low Adopted 11. Net Exports and net purchases abroad Low Adopted 12. PPP-based poverty analysis Low Ongoing research13. Back-casting and PPP revisions Low Ongoing research14. Linking regional PPPs into global results Medium Ongoing research15. Sub-national PPPs Very low Ongoing research

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Methodological Development

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July

Timetable for the Development of Product Lists

Submission of Country’s Input on GCL

15

August Oct.Sept.

Submission of Matrix of Importance of GCL Items

Submission of Consolidated Regional Lists

Submission of Matrix of Importance of Regional Items

15

15

30

2010

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2010

National Accounts Timetable

Major aggregates for latest year possible

J

2011 20132012

N

BH details for final cons. aggregates for latest year possible

Values for all BHs N

J

J N

Preliminary data for 2010

J

Major aggregates for 2011

BH values for 2011

J O M

J

J O M

M= May; J= July; O= October; N=November

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2010 2011 2012 2013

Overall Timetable

1. Meetings

2014

2. Quality Assess.

3. Methodologies

4. Survey Prep.

5. Survey Implement.

6. Nat. Accounts

7. Regional Results

8. Global Results

Part VIII

The Way Forward

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Meetings Participants

18th Executive Board Meeting All Board Members

19th Morning World Statistics Day Open TAG members are invited to attendEach TAG member asked to propose 5-6 people to be invited

Afternoon ICP Users’ Conference 80-100 EB Members; TAG; RCs; Users; Bank and IMF; Academia; Press

20th 4th TAG Meeting 40 With Regional Coordinators as observers

21st 22nd 3rd Regional Coordinators Meeting

20

October 2010 Meetings in Washington DC

30

A report to the United Nations Statistical Commission [UNSC] on country readiness for field and desk activities. The report will be prepared in November and discussed at the  42nd session of the Statistical Commission in New York in February-March 2011

The main surveys for household consumption items will start in all the regions in the first quarter of 2011

The 4th meeting of the ICP Executive Board will take place in April 2011 to review preliminary regional reports on the launch of the main surveys in the countries and decide any remedial measures where necessary

The Way Forward

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Thanks