the hydromorphology of an urbanizing watershed using ... · the hydromorphology of an urbanizing...
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![Page 1: The Hydromorphology of an Urbanizing Watershed Using ... · The Hydromorphology of an Urbanizing Watershed Using Multivariate Elasticity Maura Allaire1, Richard Vogel2, and Charles](https://reader031.vdocuments.mx/reader031/viewer/2022020114/5b35af787f8b9a8b4b8d541a/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
The Hydromorphology of an Urbanizing
Watershed Using Multivariate Elasticity
Maura Allaire1, Richard Vogel2, and Charles Kroll3
1University of North Carolina-Chapel Hill; 2 Tufts University; 3 SUNY College of Environmental Science and Forestry
![Page 2: The Hydromorphology of an Urbanizing Watershed Using ... · The Hydromorphology of an Urbanizing Watershed Using Multivariate Elasticity Maura Allaire1, Richard Vogel2, and Charles](https://reader031.vdocuments.mx/reader031/viewer/2022020114/5b35af787f8b9a8b4b8d541a/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
Outline What is hydromorphology?
New tool for hydromorphological problems
Surprising results from case study
![Page 3: The Hydromorphology of an Urbanizing Watershed Using ... · The Hydromorphology of an Urbanizing Watershed Using Multivariate Elasticity Maura Allaire1, Richard Vogel2, and Charles](https://reader031.vdocuments.mx/reader031/viewer/2022020114/5b35af787f8b9a8b4b8d541a/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
Hydromorphology
Structure and evolution of hydrologic systems
due to complex interactions between
human and natural systems
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Hydromorphology addresses human impacts
on hydrologic systems:
Climate Change
Land Use Water Use
Net Impact on Streamflow of simultaneous changes?
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Urbanization Impacts on Low Streamflow?
• Imported water
• Stormwater detention
• Vegetation removal (↓ ET)
• Impervious surfaces
• Soil compaction
• Modified channels to convey precipitation
• Exported water
• Withdrawals of shallow groundwater
• Vegetation removal (↓ recharge, ↑ ET due to
heat advection)
Increase Low Flows
Decrease Low Flows
Net Impact?
![Page 6: The Hydromorphology of an Urbanizing Watershed Using ... · The Hydromorphology of an Urbanizing Watershed Using Multivariate Elasticity Maura Allaire1, Richard Vogel2, and Charles](https://reader031.vdocuments.mx/reader031/viewer/2022020114/5b35af787f8b9a8b4b8d541a/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
Elasticity: responsiveness of one variable to another
New tool for hydrolorphological problems
%∆𝑌
%∆𝑋
Economics: If I lower the price, how much more will I sell?
Engineering: If precipitation increases, how will flood flows change?
more responsive
less responsive
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New tool for hydrolorphological problems
Multivariate elasticity
Advantage: measures uncertainty (confidence intervals)
Climate Change
Land Use Water Use
Precipitation
P
GW Withdrawal
W
Population
L
wlpq WLP
where
Q
P
P
QP
Q
L
L
QL
Q
W
W
QW
Estimation of elasticities:
![Page 8: The Hydromorphology of an Urbanizing Watershed Using ... · The Hydromorphology of an Urbanizing Watershed Using Multivariate Elasticity Maura Allaire1, Richard Vogel2, and Charles](https://reader031.vdocuments.mx/reader031/viewer/2022020114/5b35af787f8b9a8b4b8d541a/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
New tool:
Climate, Human Impacts, & Uncertainty
Stream
flow
(in cfs)
ε
95% CI
p
%SS
VIF
ε
95% CI
p
%SS
VIF
30
6
14
1.1 6.2
56
0.00
(2.900, 6.225)
6.3
1.131 4.563 -2.121
(0.310,1.953)
0.008
(-3.175, -1.066)
0.00
1.254
(-0.118, 2.627)
0.072
9
6.5
-0.331
(-1.202, 0.540)
0.450
2
Flood - Q max
Drought – Q 99
0.492
(0.324, 0.660)
0.00
90
1.1
Climate Land Use Water Use
Precipitation, PWatershed
Population, L
Well Withdrawals,
W
P L W
Land Use Water Use Climate Change
Greater uncertainty in
land and water use
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Case Study: Aberjona River
Northwest of Boston
24 sq. miles
Urbanized basin
Urbanization impacts on complete range of streamflow (low, avg., flood)
Aberjona River, Massachusetts
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Results: Continual increase in flood flows
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All flows increase due to urbanization,
not only floods
Low flow
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Stream
flow
(in cfs)
ε
95% CI
p
%SS
VIF
ε
95% CI
p
%SS
VIF
30
6
14
1.1 6.2
56
0.00
(2.900, 6.225)
6.3
1.131 4.563 -2.121
(0.310,1.953)
0.008
(-3.175, -1.066)
0.00
1.254
(-0.118, 2.627)
0.072
9
6.5
-0.331
(-1.202, 0.540)
0.450
2
Flood - Q max
Drought – Q 99
0.492
(0.324, 0.660)
0.00
90
1.1
Climate Land Use Water Use
Precipitation, PWatershed
Population, L
Well Withdrawals,
W
P L W
Land Use Water Use Climate Change
Surprising Impacts on Low Flows
Low flows more
sensitive to human
impacts than floods (changes in precip.,
population & water use)
Urbanization leads to increased low flows (not previously demonstrated)
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Results: Case Study
Future hydromorphological changes could increase avg. annual
streamflows and low flows (i.e. lessen droughts) more than floods
Climate Change
Land Use Water Use
Net Impact on Streamflow:
↑Floods, ↑ Avg. Flows, ↑ Low Flows Low flows most sensitive
to human impacts
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Take-Away
1. Streamflow is sensitive to climate, land use & water use
Must consider these 3 changes simultaneously
2. New tool (multivariate elasticity) accounts for simultaneous changes
Can be applied to variety of hydromorphological &
socio-hydrological problems
3. Low flows extremely sensitive to changes in hydromorphology
More studies needed to generalize result
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Questions?
Maura Allaire [email protected]
“The Hydromorphology of an Urbanizing Watershed Using Multivariate Elasticity”