The Human Component of the Global Carbon Cycle

ASCENDS WORKSHOP23-25 July, 2008

Ann Arbor, Michigan, USA

Gregg Marland Environmental Sciences Division Oak Ridge National Laboratory

and

Tom Boden Oak Ridge National Laboratory, USAKhrystyna Hamal Lviv Polytechnic National University, UkraineMatthias Jonas International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Austria

Anthropogenic C Emissions: Fossil Fuel

Raupach et al. 2007, PNAS; Canadell et al 2007, PNAS

1990 - 1999: 1.3% y-1

2000 - 2006: 3.3% y-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

1850 1870 1890 1910 1930 1950 1970 1990 2010

Fo

ssil

Fu

el E

mis

sio

n (

GtC

/y) Emissions

280

300

320

340

360

380

400

1850 1870 1890 1910 1930 1950 1970 1990 2010

1850 1870 1890 1910 1930 1950 1970 1990 2010

2006 Fossil Fuel: 8.4 Pg C[Total Anthrop.Emis.:8.4+1.5 = 9.9 Pg]

atmospheric CO2

ocean

land

fossil fuel emissions

deforestation

7.6

1.5

4.1

2.22.8

2000-2006

CO2 f

lux

(Pg

C y-1

)Si

nkSo

urce

Time (y)

Perturbation of Global Carbon Budget (1850-2006)

Le Quéré, unpublished; Canadell et al. 2007, PNAS

CO2 Emissions from the United States

                                                                                                                                                                 

     

2004

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Cumul Flux Growth Pop

D3D2IndiaChinaFSUD1JapanEUUSA

Cumulative fraction of total fossil-fuel emissions - 2005

number of country cumulativecountries fraction

1 USA .2062 China .4033 Russia .4594 India .5095 Japan .5526 Germany .5807 Canada .6018 UK .6219 Iran .63810 Mexico .65520 Ukraine .79350 Belarus .941100 Moldova .992211 1.000

Sources of US anthropogenic CO2 emissions - 2006

• Fossil fuel combustion 1537.5 Tg C• Non-energy use of fossil fuels 37.6• Iron and steel manufacture 13.4• Cement production 12.5• Gas flaring/venting/leakage 7.8• Other industrial processes 22.9

• Total 1631.7

From US EPA, 2008

Sectoral sources of CO2 from fossil fuel combustion – USA - 2006

• Electric power generation 41.3%• Transport 32.9%• Industry 14.5%• Residential 5.8%• Commercial 3.7%• Agriculture 0.8%• US territories 1.0%

US EPA, 2008

Carbon Emissions Per Capita

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995

Year

C Em

issi

ons

Meg

agra

m/p

erso

n

California

Wyoming

From T.J. Blasing

6 9

From T.J. Blasing

Vulcan project – CO2 from power plants

Vulcan project – large industrial point sources

                                                                         

Vulcan Project – US C02 emissions

Carbon released directly by the US human population in 2000. Enhanced area represents carbon released in the metropolitan area of Chicago.

020406080

100120140160

Jan-

81

Jan-

82

Jan-

83

Jan-

84

Jan-

85

Jan-

86

Jan-

87

Jan-

88

Jan-

89

Jan-

90

Jan-

91

Jan-

92

Jan-

93

Jan-

94

Jan-

95

Jan-

96

Jan-

97

Jan-

98

Jan-

99

Jan-

00

Jan-

01

Jan-

02

Jan-

03

Jan-

04Car

bon

emis

sion

s (T

g)

Coal Oil Gas Total

0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

Jan-

81

Jan-

82

Jan-

83

Jan-

84

Jan-

85

Jan-

86

Jan-

87

Jan-

88

Jan-

89

Jan-

90

Jan-

91

Jan-

92

Jan-

93

Jan-

94

Jan-

95

Jan-

96

Jan-

97

Jan-

98

Jan-

99

Jan-

00

Jan-

01

Jan-

02

Jan-

03

Jan-

04

Em

issi

ons

(mg/

pers

on-m

onth

)

Coal Oil Gas Total

U.S. Fossil-fuel Carbon Emissions by Month

TOTAL

PER CAPITA

From T.J. Blasing

Monthly Average Carbon Emissions for Recent and Early Years

90

100

110

120

130

140

150

Em

issio

ns (

Tg

-C)

_______________________________

↨

_______________________________

↨10 Tg

19 Tg1981-1985

2000-2004

Monthly 5-year Average Fossil-fuel Carbon Emissions for the U.S.

From T.J. Blasing

Signal Analysis Under the Kyoto Protocol

Jonas and Nilsson (2009: Tab. 1)

Signal Analysis Under the Kyoto Protocol

~ Risk

Undershooting U

CommittedLevel

Base YearLevel

x1

Timet1

Emissions

t2

x2

Jonas and Nilsson (2007: Fig. 11); modified

CO2 Emissions from Austria

58 0

00,0

63 0

00,0

68 0

00,0

73 0

00,0

78 0

00,0

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004

Year

Em

issio

ns (

Gg

)

2000

2001

2002

2003

2005

Austrian CO2 emissions initial estimates and recalculations of historic emissions in 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003 and 2005. Data from: Austrian National Inventory Reports (2002-2007).

3150

3250

3350

3450

1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006

Em

iss

ion

s (

Tg

)

Initial emissions estimates

The most recent emissionestimates

CO2 emissions without LULUCF estimates.

Data from: European Community National Inventory Reports.

1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006

Revisions of Global Total Emissions

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

1985 1990 1995 2000 2005

Revisions of Global Total without China

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

4.5

1985 1990 1995 2000 2005

Revisions of Global Total Without……

Initial estimates to 2004 (absolute values)

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006

(%)

Global

Global w /o CHINA (Mainland) and USA

Global w /o CHINA (Mainland), USA, Canada

Global w /o CHINA (Mainland), USA, Canada, Algeria, United Arab Emirates

Global w /o CHINA (Mainland), USA, Canada, Algeria, United Arab Emirates, Indonesia, India

Global w /o CHINA (Mainland), USA, Canada, Algeria, United Arab Emirates, Indonesia, India, South Afr, Nigeria, Iran

Global w /o CHINA (Mainland), USA, Canada, Algeria, United Arab Emirates, Indonesia, India, South Afr, Nigeria, Iran, Kuwait, USSR