the housing bubble and the resulting impact on employment kathryn byun byun_k@bls
DESCRIPTION
The Housing Bubble and the Resulting Impact on Employment Kathryn Byun [email protected]. Commonly Cited Data from Current Employment Statistics (CES). 1) Construction Industry Employment: Includes work by the construction industry to satisfy demand other than for structures - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
U. S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
The Housing Bubble and the Resulting Impact on Employment
Kathryn Byun
2
Commonly Cited Data from Current Employment Statistics (CES)
1) Construction Industry Employment:
• Includes work by the construction industry to satisfy demand other than for structures
• Does not include employment necessary to satisfy intermediate demand (secondary employment)
3
Commonly Cited Data from the Office of Occupational Statistics (OOS)
2) Employment in Construction Related Occupations:
• Includes employment in the occupation that satisfies demand other than for building structures
• Overlook occupations outside of construction
Y
X
UseTable
DirectRequirements
Total Requirements
Industry
Commodity
MakeTable
MarketShares
Total Requirements
OOSEP Methodology
Total Requirements Table * Final Demand = Industry Output
5
OOSEP Methodology cont.
• Ind. Ouput / Ind. Empl. Empl. Multiplier
• TRT * Emp. Multiplier = Employment Requirements Table
• ERT * FD vector = Industry Employment
• Industry Employment Vector * Staffing Pattern Matrix = Occupational Employment
Final Demand
7
Final Demand for Construction(chained 2000 dollars, millions)
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
1950
1957
1964
1971
1978
1985
1992
1999
2006
Nonresidential
Residential
Nonres. Trend
Res. Trend
8
Annual Growth Rate
Annual Growth Rates
-30.0%
-20.0%
-10.0%
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
Nonresidential
Residential
9
Divergence from 1950-95 Trend(chained 2000 dollars, millions)
-100,000
-50,000
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
1929
1937
1945
1953
1961
1969
1977
1985
1993
2001
NRES. Less Trend
RES. Less Trend
10
Residential Detail
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
1958
1963
1968
1973
1978
1983
1988
1993
1997
2002
2007
Brokers' commissionson sale of structures
Improvements
Multifamily structures
Single-family structures
11
Nonresidential Detail
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
160,000
1929
1936
1943
1950
1957
1964
1971
1978
1985
1992
1998
2005
Commercial andhealth care
Manufacturing
Power andcommunication
Mining exploration,shafts, and wells
Other structures
12
Nonresidential Breakout of Commercial and Health Care
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000Office
Health Care
MultimerchandiseShopping
Food and BeverageEstablishments
Warehouses
Other Commercial
13
Forecasted data for 2016
0
100000
200000
300000
400000
500000
600000
700000
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
Nonresidential
Residential
14
Average Annual Growth Rates (Final Demand)
Historical
1995-2005Projected
2006-2016*Implied
2007-2016
Total 3.2% 3.5%
Non-Residential 0.2% 1.3% 0.3%
Residential 5.6% 1.5% 4.1%
Employment
16
OOSEP Methodology
• Final Demand + Intermediates = Industry Output
• Ind. Ouput & Ind. Empl. Employment Requirements Table
• ERT * FD vector = Industry Employment
17
Disclaimer
The estimates presented from this point on reflect my research alone and are not the
official view of OOSEP or the BLS
18
Employment due to Construction Spending
0
1,000,000
2,000,000
3,000,000
4,000,000
5,000,000
6,000,000
7,000,000
8,000,000
9,000,000
1993
1996
1999
2002
2005
2008
2011
2014
Nonresidential
Residential
19
Employment in the Residential Construction Industry (CES data) vs. Employment due to Demand for Residential Construction (My data)
(Wage and Salary Employment, Thousands)
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
My Estimate
CES
CES+Specialty
20
Annual Growth Rates
-8.00%
-6.00%
-4.00%
-2.00%
0.00%
2.00%
4.00%
6.00%
8.00%
10.00%
12.00%
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
CES
My Estimate
CES+Specialty\
21
Employment during the Housing Bubble versus Trend
-1,000,000
0
1,000,000
2,000,000
3,000,000
4,000,000
5,000,000
6,000,000
7,000,000
8,000,000
9,000,000
Residential
RES Trend
Difference
22
Could res. trend be shifting up?
• More people owning multiple homes
• More home owners / Less renters
• Replacing a higher percentage of existing structures
• Faster population growth (illegal immigration)
• More single persons buying homes (higher divorce rate)
23
Nonresidential Construction Related Employment versus Trend
-2,000,000
-1,000,000
0
1,000,000
2,000,000
3,000,000
4,000,000
5,000,000
6,000,000
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
Nonresidential
NRES Trend
Difference
24
Could Nonres. trend be shifting down?
• Less need for structures with e-business
• Telecommuting
• Move from manufacturing to services?
• Other reasons?
25
2007 Employment(Assuming 2006 ERT holds)
3,000,000
4,000,000
5,000,000
6,000,000
7,000,000
8,000,000
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
NRES
RES
RES Trend
NRES Trend
26
Industry Employment
27
Industries with Construction Related Employment in 2006 (by major sector)
Construction
Financial Activities
Retail
Other
Professional and Business
Services
Manufacturing
Construction
Professional andBusiness Services
Manufacturing
Financial Activities
Retail
Other
28
Residential: industries with biggest gains in employment
Residential Res. as % of Total
95-05 06-16 1995 2005 2006 2016
Construction1,943,233 154,570 38.8% 50.8% 48.9% 48.7%
Real estate127,258 50,538 7.6% 12.9% 11.1% 11.5%
Architectural, engineering, and related services
103,943 34,450 11.9% 16.3% 14.6% 13.6%
Employment services82,070 1,159 4.4% 5.3% 4.5% 3.9%
Services to buildings and dwellings
59,090 16,507 4.1% 5.7% 4.9% 4.4%
29
Residential: industries with biggest gains in employment cont.
Residential Res. as % of Total
95-05 06-16 1995 2005 2006 2016
Wholesale trade 35,587 -21,019 2.1% 2.6% 2.1% 1.6%
Cement and concrete product manufacturing
30,911 -441 23.4% 31.8% 29.6% 27.6%
Monetary authorities, credit intermediation, and related activities
30,330 -3,472 2.4% 3.0% 2.5% 2.2%
Architectural and structural metals manufacturing
29,755 -8,756 18.9% 24.7% 22.5% 19.4%
Truck transportation 29,429 9,706 4.1% 5.4% 4.5% 4.0%
30
Residential: industries with biggest losses in employment
Residential Res. as % of Total
95-05
06-161995 2005 2006 2016
Retail trade -173,691 12,547 3.1% 1.8% 1.5% 1.5%
Other wood product manufacturing
-35,557 -6,961 33.6% 24.0% 21.1% 19.9%
Household and institutional furniture and kitchen cabinet manufacturing
-5,122 -5,865 5.5% 4.7% 3.9% 2.7%
Commercial and service industry machinery manufacturing
-4,539 -573 3.9% 1.0% 1.0% 0.5%
Crop production -4,384 -1,889 1.2% 1.1% 0.9% 0.8%
31
Residential: industries with biggest losses in employment cont.
Residential Res. as % of Total
95-05 06-16 1995 2005 2006 2016
Logging -3,998 -3,366 13.2% 14.9% 12.1% 10.7%
Other electrical equipment and component manufacturing
-3,560 -5,209 7.0% 6.6% 6.1% 2.6%
Clay product and refractory manufacturing
-2,756 -1,895 11.3% 10.4% 8.9% 6.6%
Semiconductor and other electronic component manufacturing
-2,543 -1,431 1.3% 1.0% 0.7% 0.5%
Communications equipment manufacturing
-2,540 -401 1.6% 0.9% 0.7% 0.4%
32
Nonresidential: industries with biggest gains in employment
NonResidential Nonres. as % of Total
95-05 06-16 1995 2005 2006 2016
Support activities for mining
63,800 -15,910 88.2% 88.6% 88.8% 88.4%
Amusement, gambling, and recreation industries
3,002 294 0.1% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3%
Management, scientific, and technical consulting services
2,406 10,313 2.4% 1.7% 1.7% 1.5%
Architectural, engineering, and related services
1,696 16,050 8.9% 6.9% 7.0% 6.5%
33
Nonresidential: industries with biggest losses in employment
NonResidential Nonres. as % of Total
95-05 06-16 1995 2005 2006 2016
Retail trade -189,316 7,107 2.0% 0.7% 0.6% 0.6%
Construction -93,959 79,242 29.4% 21.4% 23.0% 23.0%
Wholesale trade -20,274 -11,471 1.6% 1.2% 1.1% 0.8%
Plastics product manufacturing
-11,611 -1,893 4.1% 2.7% 2.6% 2.3%
Architectural and structural metals manufacturing
-9,487 -4,462 14.6% 11.0% 11.3% 9.8%
34
Nonresidential: industries with biggest losses in employment cont.
NonResidential Nonres. as % of Total
95-05 06-16 1995 2005 2006 2016
Household and institutional furniture and kitchen cabinet manufacturing
-9,335 -2,703 3.9% 1.9% 1.8% 1.2%
Management of companies and enterprises
-8,162 -8,413 2.7% 2.1% 2.3% 1.6%
Other wood product manufacturing
-7,161 -4,881 9.0% 7.2% 7.3% 6.1%
Telecommunications -7,083 -183 2.0% 1.2% 1.2% 1.1%
Other fabricated metal product manufacturing
-6,610 -3,205 5.3% 3.5% 3.5% 2.7%
Occupational Employment
(Indsutry Employment Vector * Staffing Pattern Matrix)
36
Occupational Breakout in 2006(by major sector)
Management, business, and financial occupations
Professional and related occupations
Service occupations
Sales and related occupations
Office and administrative support occupations
Farming, fishing, and forestry occupations
Construction and extraction occupations
Installation, maintenance, and repair occupations
Production occupations
Transportation and material moving occupations
37
Top 5 occupations
NRES RES Sum as % Total
2006 2016 2006 2016 2006 2016
Carpenters 217,832 236,030 466,321 504,660 46.8% 45.9%
Construction laborers 207,437 225,088 435,019 472,275 52.1% 51.0%
First-line supervisors/managers of construction trades and extraction workers 128,869 137,675 251,917 271,776 49.3% 48.6%
Electricians 117,508 126,535 246,118 264,958 51.6% 51.7%
Plumbers, pipefitters, and steamfitters 87,733 97,510 184,772 205,273 54.3% 54.5%
38
Occupations 6-10
NRES RES Sum as % Total
2006 2016 2006 2016 2006 2016
Office clerks, general 73,542 75,999 157,710 168,167 7.2% 6.8%
Truck drivers, heavy and tractor trailer 83,452 83,169 153,255 154,591 12.7% 11.6%
Operating engineers and other construction equipment operators 68,501 73,433 137,035 147,812 48.5% 48.1%
Bookkeeping, accounting, and auditing clerks 66,193 67,726 136,736 142,832 9.6% 8.9%
Painters, construction and maintenance 59,983 63,594 128,680 136,569 40.8% 38.7%
39
Occupations 11-15
NRES RES Sum as % Total
2006 2016 2006 2016 2006 2016
Construction managers 55,082 60,252 116,899 128,245 35.3% 33.4%
Farmers and ranchers 52,243 37,237 114,666 83,275 15.8% 12.4%
Laborers and freight, stock, and material movers, hand 54,032 48,389 107,360 97,624 6.7% 5.9%
Secretaries, except legal, medical, and executive 50,942 47,943 106,203 102,458 8.1% 7.7%
General and operations managers 54,552 50,872 102,529 98,131 9.1% 8.5%
40
Occupations 16-20
NRES RES Sum as % Total
2006 2016 2006 2016 2006 2016
Cement masons and concrete finishers 48,114 53,397 102,261 113,203 67.9% 67.5%
Heating, air conditioning, and refrigeration mechanics and installers 42,372 46,837 90,508 99,882 45.5% 46.2%
Retail salespersons 38,231 40,720 88,288 93,885 2.8% 2.7%
Janitors and cleaners, except maids and housekeeping cleaners 31,944 32,199 86,456 90,750 5.0% 4.5%
First-line supervisors/managers of retail sales workers 35,789 30,495 79,626 68,920 6.9% 5.7%