the greenhouse effectgreenhouse effect 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 co 0.0 2 emissions, pounds (c) per kwh coal...
TRANSCRIPT
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THE GREENHOUSE EFFECT
Stephen E. Schwartz
Atmospheric Sciences Division
CSSP Lecture
July 27, 2005
http://www.ecd.bnl.gov/steve/schwartz.html
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GLOBAL ENERGY BALANCEGlobal and annual average energy fluxes in watts per square meter
343
237
237≈ 254K
390≈288K
106 68
169
327 9016
Rayleigh
Aerosol
α = 31%
69% = 1 -α
1/4 S0 1/4 S0 =(1-α ) σT4
Shortwave Longwave
H2O, CO2, CH4...
Atmosphere
LS
Schwartz, 1996, modified from Ramanathan, 1987
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ATMOSPHERICRADIATION
Energy per area pertime
Power per area
Unit:Watt per square meterW m-2
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Everybody talks about the weather — Everybody talks about the weather —
But nobody does anything about it.But nobody does anything about it.
– Mark Twain– Mark Twain
Now with the greenhouse effect, we ARE doing something about it. What are we doing?
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RADIATIVE FORCING
A change in a component of the Earth’s radiationbudget.
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370360350340330320310
20001990198019701960
C. D. Keeling
Year
CO
2 co
ncen
trat
ion
(ppm
)
180
200
220
240
260
280
300
320
340
360
380
800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000
Law Dome Adelie LandSipleSouth Pole
Mauna Loa Hawaii
ATMOSPHERIC CARBON DIOXIDE IS INCREASING
Global carbon dioxide concentration over the last thousand years
Polar ice cores
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370360350340330320310
20001990198019701960
C. D. Keeling
Year
CO
2 co
ncen
trat
ion
(ppm
)
180
200
220
240
260
280
300
320
340
360
380
800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000
Law Dome Adelie LandSipleSouth Pole
Mauna Loa Hawaii
ATMOSPHERIC CARBON DIOXIDE IS INCREASING
Global carbon dioxide concentration and infrared radiative forcing over the last thousand years
Polar ice cores
0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.6
Forcing, W
m-2
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Mann et al., Geophysical Research Letters, 1999
Northern Hemisphere temperature trend (1000-1998), fromtree-ring, coral, and ice-core proxy records As calibrated byinstrumental measurements.
1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000YEAR
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0T
EM
PE
RA
TU
RE
AN
OM
ALY
(o C
)
Reconstruction (AD 1000-1980)Instrumental data (AD 1902-1998)Calibration period (AD 1902-1980) meanReconstruction (40 year smoothed)Linear trend (AD 1000-1850)
1998
THE TEMPERATURE'S RISING
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GLOBAL AVERAGE TEMPERATURE TREND1856-2002
Temperature Anomaly Relative to Base Period 1961-1990
-0.6
-0.4
-0.2
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
Tem
pera
ture
Ano
mal
y, K
2000
2000
1990
1990
1980
1980
1970
1970
1960
1960
1950
1950
1940
1940
1930
1930
1920
1920
1910
1910
1900
1900
1890
1890
1880
1880
1870
1870
1860
1860
Climate Research Unit, East Anglia UK
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INDICATIONS OF SYSTEMATIC WARMINGIN RECENT YEARS
The 1990s were the warmest decade in the instrumentalrecord.
The warmest two years of the entire instrumental record havebeen 1998 and 2002.
The nine warmest years globally have now occurred in the1990s and 2000s.
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Global warming overthe past millennium
Very rapidly we have entereduncharted territory -– what some callthe anthropocene climate regime.Over the 20th century, humanpopulation quadrupled and energyconsumption increased sixteenfold.Near the end of the last century, wecrossed a critical threshold, andglobal warming from the fossil fuelgreenhouse became a major, andincreasingly dominant, factor inclimate change. Global mean surfacetemperature is higher today than it’sbeen for at least a millennium.
Martin Hoffert, NYU
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GREENHOUSE GAS MIXING RATIOS OVER THE INDUSTRIAL PERIOD
280
300
320
340
360
ppm
CO2
ice core
in situ↓ ← →
800
1200
1600
ppb
CH4
ice core insitu
Antarctica
Greenland↓ ↑
↑
↓
280
300
320
ppb
N2O
ice core in situ↓
↑
1850 1875 1900 1925 1950 1975 2000 0
200
400
600
CFC-11CFC-12other trace gas forcingpp
t
CFCs
converted to CFC-11 amount
Hansen et al., PNAS. 1998
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GREENHOUSE GAS FORCINGS OVER THE INDUSTRIAL PERIOD2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
For
cing
rel
ativ
e to
185
0, W
m-2
2000197519501925190018751850
Year
Total
CO2
CH4
N2OCFC-12CFC-11
Other
Data: GISS
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WHERE IS ALLTHIS CO
COMING FROM?2
WHO IS RESPONSIBLE?
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ATMOSPHERIC CARBON DIOXIDETime series 1700 - 2003
500
450
400
350
300
Car
bon
diox
ide
mix
ing
ratio
, ppm
2000195019001850180017501700
Law Dome (Antarctica) Siple (Antarctica)Mauna Loa (Hawaii)
Law - Etheridge et al.Siple - Friedli et al.
Mauna Loa - Keeling
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ATMOSPHERIC CO2 EMISSIONSTime series 1700 - 2003
3.0
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
Car
bon
diox
ide
emis
sion
s, p
pm/y
r
2000195019001850180017501700
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
Carbon dioxide em
issions, Pg C
/yr
Fossil Fuel Emissions
Fossil Fuel - Marland
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ATMOSPHERIC CARBON DIOXIDETime series 1700 - 2003
500
450
400
350
300
Car
bon
diox
ide
mix
ing
ratio
, ppm
2000195019001850180017501700
Fossil Fuel Cumulative Emissions
Law Dome (Antarctica) Siple (Antarctica)Mauna Loa (Hawaii)
Law - Etheridge et al.Siple - Friedli et al.
Mauna Loa - KeelingFossil Fuel - Marland
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LAND USE CARBON EMISSIONS BY SOURCE REGION
1000 Tg = 1 Pg = 1015 g,Equivalent to 0.47 ppm
Carbon flux estimated as land area times carbon emissions associated withland clearing or afforestation (uptake).
United States dominates emissions before 1900 and uptake after 1940.
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ATMOSPHERIC CO2 EMISSIONSTime series 1700 - 2003
3.0
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
Car
bon
diox
ide
emis
sion
s, p
pm/y
r
2000195019001850180017501700
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
Carbon dioxide em
issions, Pg C
/yr
Land Use Emissions Fossil Fuel Emissions
Fossil Fuel - MarlandLand Use - Houghton
Prior to 1910 CO2 emissions from land use changes were dominant.
Subsequently fossil fuel CO2 has been dominant and rapidly increasing!
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ATTRIBUTION OF INCREASE INATMOSPHERIC CO2
Comparison of cumulative CO2 emissions from fossil fuel combustion andland use changes with measured increases in atmospheric CO2.
500
450
400
350
300
Car
bon
diox
ide
mix
ing
ratio
, ppm
2000195019001850180017501700
400
300
200
100
0
Cum
ulative carbon dioxide emissions, P
g C
Fossil Fuel Cumulative Emissions
Fossil + Land UseCumulative Emissions
Land Use ChangeCumulative Emissions
Law Dome (Antarctica) - Etheridge et al Siple (Antarctica) - Law et alMauna Loa (Hawaii) - Keeling
Prior to 1970 the increase in atmospheric CO2 was dominated byemissions from land use changes, not fossil fuel combustion.
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HOW MUCH CARBONIS IN A GALLON
OF GASOLINE?
? ??
? ?
1 lb? 2 lbs?3 lbs!? 5 lbs!?!
?
All of this carbon goes into the atmosphere as carbon dioxide whenyou burn the gasoline in your car.
? ?
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YOUR FAMILY’S CONTRIBUTION TO THEGREENHOUSE EFFECT
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0.0CO
2 em
issi
ons,
Pou
nds
(C)
per
KW
H
Coal Oil Natural gas Nuclear
CARBON DIOXIDE EMISSIONS FROMELECTRIC ENERGY PRODUCTION
(1990's Technology)
Suffolk County 2001Legislation
How much does your household contribute?
A typical household using 1000 kilowatt hours of electricityper month is responsible for emission of 3 tons of carbona year in the form of carbon dioxide.
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YOUR CONTRIBUTION TO THE GREENHOUSE EFFECT
0.49 lbs Carbon per KWH
At half a pound of carbon per KWH, the average household is responsible for emission of 500 pounds of carbon a month.
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Breath of Fresh AirGaffney signs bill to limit greenhouse gas emissions
July 25, 2001By Emi Endo
Suffolk County ExecutiveRobert Gaffney yesterdaysigned into law a bill aimed atlimiting greenhouse gasemissions locally, althoughcritics questioned how much itwould actually reduce theemissions.
Beginning in March, for every100 megawatts of newgeneration added in thecounty, the emissions ratemust be reduced by 1 percent,
until a 20-percent reduction isachieved. Power plants thatexceed the standard would facefines.
During negotiations, Fisherraised the emissions limit fromless than 1,500 pounds to1,800 pounds of carbondioxide per megawatt hour andcut the penalties from $5 foreach ton of carbon dioxideemissions exceeding the limitto $2.
Suffolk County Limits CO Emissions2
0.49 lbs Carbon per KWH
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WHERE DOES YOUR ELECTRIC ENERGYCOME FROM?
50
40
30
20
10
0
Per
cent
of T
otal
Coal Natural Gas Oil Hydro Geothermal Solar Wind Biomass Nuclear
SOURCES OF ELECTRIC ENERGYIN THE UNITED STATES
- - - FOSSIL FUEL - - -
- - - Less than 1 % each - - -
- - - - - Renewable - - - - -
Annual Total 3.71 Trillion KWH
On Long Island most electric energy derives from combustion of oil.
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WHAT COUNTRY USES THE MOSTELECTRIC POWER?
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WHAT COUNTRY USES THE MOSTELECTRIC POWER?
30
20
10
0
Per
cent
of T
otal
US China Russia Japan Germany
ANNUAL ENERGY CONSUMPTIONTotal Global Consumption 382 Quadrillion BTU
Selected Countries
No surprise. It's the United States.
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WHAT COUNTRY USES THE MOSTELECTRIC POWER PER CAPITA?
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WHAT COUNTRY USES THE MOSTELECTRIC POWER PER CAPITA?
No surprise. It's the United States again.
400
300
200
100
0Mill
ion
BT
U p
er p
erso
n pe
r ye
ar
US China Russia Japan Germany
PER CAPITA ENERGY CONSUMPTIONSelected Countries
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Looking to theFuture . . .
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Prediction is difficult, especially about the future.
– Niels Bohr
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THE “BIBLE” OF CLIMATE CHANGE RESEARCH
WMO
Cambridge University Press, 2001
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THE BIBLE OF CLIMATE CHANGEIt's big and thick.Every household should have one.No one reads it from cover to cover.You can open it up on any page
and find something interesting.It was written by a committee.It is full of internal contradictions.It deals with cataclysmic events such as
floods and droughts.It has its true believers and its rabid skeptics.
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FUTURE CLIMATE IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN
(IPCC, 2001)
Contributors to uncertainty include emissions, concentrations, and Earth'sclimate sensitivity.
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RESEARCH AT BROOKHAVENNATIONAL LABORATORY IS HELPING
TO ANSWER THESE QUESTIONS.