the great eastern shipping company ltd....panamax 97/98 blt h'max avg trip charter •increased...
TRANSCRIPT
The Great Eastern Shipping Company Ltd.
India’s premier Shipping and Offshore service provider
Forward looking information
This presentation contains certain forward looking information
through statements, which are based on management’s current
expectations and observations. The company does not guarantee the
accuracy of these assumptions.
There are a number of risks and uncertainties which may impact the
actual results to differ materially from these forward looking
statements. The company assumes no responsibility with regard to
publicly amending, modifying or revising the statements based on any
subsequent developments, information or events that may occur.
Business ProfileBusiness Profile
Tankers
Dry Bulk Carriers
Offshore Drilling Services
Marine Construction Projects and Services
Offshore Support and Logistics Services
Port Support and Terminal Services
ShippingDivision
OffshoreDivision
CrudeCrude ProductProduct LPGLPG
Shipping Division Fleet profile23 Tankers: 5 Crude oil carriers
17 Product carriers 1 LPG Carrier
9 Dry bulk carriers: 1 Panamax 3 Handymax 3 Handysize 2 MBC
GES fleet average age 12.6 yearsWorld fleet average age:12.2 yearsIndian fleet average age:16.5 years
Double hull tonnage World average 52%Double hull tonnage GES average 47%
32 ships aggregating 1.59 mn dwt
On order: 4 Tankers aggregating 0.47 mn dwt 1 Aframax crude carrier 1 MR product carrier
2 Suezmax crude carriers
Offshore division fleet profile2 exploratory drilling rigs
16 offshore support vessels ( of which 3 caterto deep water support services)
1 construction barge
11 Harbour tugs
Only Indian company to own PSVs and firstIndian Co. to operate in the North Sea
30 Offshore units catering to diverse offshore oil field services
On order 3 OSVs capable of deep water supportservices
2 Anchor Handling Tug Supply Vessels1 Platform Supply Vessel
Shipping IndustryShipping Industry
Earnings’ Drivers : Shipping businessEarnings’ Drivers : Shipping business
Supply DriversDemand Drivers
Ordering ScrappingTrade Growth Trade Patterns
Dry
World GDPgrowth
OPECprodn
Oilinventorylevels
Steelprodn
Crude sourcingareas
Refinerylocation
Regional grainprodn
Wet
Wet/Dry
New buildingprices
Shipbldg.capacity
Replacementdemand
Economic
Life
Marketdynamics
Regulations
Wet
Wet/Dry
Freight Markets Movement
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
Apr-02
May-02
Jun-02
Jul-02 Aug-02
Sep-02
Oct-02
Nov-02
Dec-02
Jan-03
Feb-03
Mar-03
Apr-03
May-03
Jun-03
Jul-03
$/da
y
Suezmax 90/91 Aframax 90/91 Handsize cln prod
•Pick up in winter demand
•Prolonged Venezuelan strike
• Sinking of ‘Prestige’
•Japan’s nuclear plant shut down
•Iraq factor
Global tanker market - spot earnings
S’max 10 yr av earnings: $20,300/day
A’max 10 yr av earning: $16,470/day
Cln prod 10 yr av earnings: $13,075/day
Source: Clarksons’ Research Studies, Marsoft
23.1
17.2
10
15.5
0
5
10
15
20
25
2002 Jun-03
mn
dwt
Total delivery Total scrapping
Tankers: Delivery and Scrapping
Source: Clarksons’ research studies
On March 31, 2003 Order book: 61.2 mn dwt equals 20% of fleet
Total fleet: 295 mn dwt
Total Fleet as on July 1, 03: 301 mn dwt
Global dry bulk market - spot earnings
5,000
7,000
9,000
11,000
13,000
15,000
Apr-02
May-02
Jun-02
Jul-02
Aug-02
Sep-02
Oct-02
Nov-02
Dec-02
Jan-03
Feb-03
Mar-03
Apr-03
May-03
Jun-03
Jul-03
$/da
y
Panamax 97/98 blt H'max avg trip charter
•Increased steel production in China and Japan
•Increased coal trade to Japan
•Limited tonnage growth
P’max10 yr av. Earnings: $9,100/day
H’max 10 yr av. Earnings: $8,800/day
Source: Clarksons’ research studies, Marsoft
13.7
5.85.8
1.7
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
2002 Jun-03
mn
dw
t
Total delivery Total scrapping
Dry Bulk Carriers: Delivery and Scrapping
Order book at end of FY03: 33.49 mn dwt equals 11% of fleet
Source: Clarksons’ Research Studies
Total fleet: 295 mn dwt
Total fleet as on July 1, 03:299 mn dwt
Scrapping guidelines for single hull tankers
International Maritime Org.
• Cut off date 2015
• No trading exclusions
European Union
• Cut off date 2010
• Restrictions in carrying heavyoil (less than 25.7 API) insingle hull tankers in EUwaters from September 1, 2003
One crude carrier may lose hereconomic life basis scrapping at23 years
One crude carrier will lose hereconomic life basis scrapping at18 years
Impact on GE Shipping’s fleet
Offshore Oil field services
Characteristics of the industry
• Activities conducted within the EEZ of each country
• Influenced by government regulations
• Dependent on oil & gas prices and global E&P activities
Earnings’ drivers
• Geological prospects
• Success ratio in the recent past
• Price of oil & gas
• Demand supply gap of twin hydrocarbons
Exploration
• Demand supply gap of twin hydrocarbons
• Price of oil and gas
• Accretion of proven reserves
Production
Global developments in 2002– Disconnect between rising oil and gas prices and fresh E&P
investments
– Thrust in developmental drilling– Deepwater exploratory drilling slowed down
Global Developments in 2003
• Environment conducive for E&P activities
• World economies also seem to mend
• Oil majors initiated increased E&P investments
Developments in India
Increased Government emphasis on E&P activities
• Discoveries in West coast and KG basin
• Redevelopment efforts in Bombay High South & North fields
• ONGC finalised deepwater contracts worth $ 760 mn spreadover three years commencing Q1 FY04
NELP IV (Blocks currently due for offer)
14
17
1
Deep Water Shallow Water Onshore
Developments in the port and terminal sector:India
• 12 major ports handling around 360 mn metric tons• Labour intensive• Privatisation process tardy and time consuming• Government considering change in regulations• Emerging competition from private sector/ joint sector
ports
• Capital intensity
- around 90% of capital employed is in fixed assets alone- each asset is “ SBU”
• Earnings variability- within markets- within trades- within asset class- within operations
• Asset liquidity
• Global regulatory compliance
Industry characteristics
Great Eastern’s
BUSINESS STRATEGY
Focus on
• Energy businesses– Wide array of business opportunities
– Superior long term return
• Fleet expansion and modernisation
We manage our business through:
• broad based research
• continuous evaluation of fleet through judicioussale/purchase activities
• benchmarking with global standards
• derisking– through diverse asset base
– long term employment
Benchmarking with Global Standards
47% 52%
53% 48%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
GE Shpp 03 Global 03
Double hull tankers Single hull tankers
51504850
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
GE Shpp 03 Global 03
Suezmax Opex ($/day)
0
10
20
30
40
GE Shpp 03 Global 03
Crew per tanker
22--24 19--22
Source: Clarksons’ database
Source: MSI
Benchmarked with Global Standards
0.62
0.37
0.02
0.12
0.22
0.32
0.42
0.52
0.62
GE Shpp 03 Global 03
LTI: Rigs
Source: IADC, ASP
0.005
0.022
0.002
0.012
0.022
GE Shpp Globally Permisible
Jack up rigs downtime
Source: ISOA
0.18
0.12
0.02
0.05
0.08
0.11
0.14
0.17
0.2
GE Shpp Global
LTI: OSV
Source: IADC
Enhancing customer base
International48%
Domestic52%
FY 2002-03
Financial Highlights (year ended March 31, 2003)
• EPS of Rs. 11.40 per share an increase of 29 %
• Cash EPS of Rs. 20.10 per share an increase of 10 %
• Equity dividend 40%, dividend payout ratio 38%
• Book value of Rs. 61 per share an increase of 17 %
• Return on average capital employed 12.25 %• Return on average net worth 20.40 %
Income Statement: Quarterly Comparison
Q1 FY04 Q1 FY03 % Change
Total Income 304.10 231.33 31
EBDIT 161.54 93.34 73
Interest 10.37 9.37 10
PBT 109.66 38.22 187
Net Profit * 96.23 29.37 227
Basic and DilutedEPS (in Rs.)
4.9 1.3 -
* includes prior period adjustments
(in Rs. Crores)
Crude carriers
37.78% 62.22%
Product carriers
36.63%63.37%
Dry Bulk carriers
88.81%11.19%
Shipping Division’s: Revenue Visibilityfor balance three quarters of FY 2003-04
Operating days coverage as represented by Period Charters
Rs 56.1 cr$12.14mn
Rs 152 cr$ 32.90 mn
Rs 11.0 cr$ 2.39 mn
LPG carrier68.38%31.62%
Covered Open
Rs 14.7 cr$ 3.19 mn
Revenue of Rs. 234 crores covered
Offshore Division’s: Revenue Visibility for balance three quarters of FY 2003-04
Operating days coverage as per firm contracts
Support Vessels
41%59%
Drilling Rigs
Port & Terminal Services
72%
28%
Construction Barge
62%
38%
Covered Open
Rs. 85.91 cr Rs. 53.69 cr
Rs. 22.34 crRs. 9.20 cr
100%
Revenue of Rs. 171 crores covered
Investment Positives
• Focussed on core areas of Shipping & Offshore with diverse
stack of asset portfolio
• Modernisation and expansion in core business
• Committed capex of Rs.880 crores
• Revenue of around Rs. 405 crores covered for the balance
quarters of FY 2003-04
• Strong financials backed by investor friendly approach
Earnings OutlookEarnings Outlook
• Healthy tanker earnings likely to continue– global oil inventories at low levels
– winter demand
• Improved freight rates in the dry bulk sector– driven by Asia
• Improved rigs and OSV utilisation– increased Govt.’s emphasis on E & P– increased interest/participation of operators
(domestic & foreign)
• Project income expected to grow
– increased marine construction activities
Visit us at: www.greatship.com
Committed to value creation