the go/no-go decision: real-time decision making for pilots

Eric Radtke & Bret Koebbe!

Go / No-goRealtime decision making for pilots

Sportys Academy

Eric Radtke

President & Chief Pilot! Sportys Academy

ATP & Master CFI!Sportys Pilot Shop! Editor!

Student Pilot News

Go / No-go: Real-time decision making for pilots

Bret Koebbe

ATP / CFI / Vice President! Sportys Academy

App / video producer! Sportys Pilot Shop

Editor! iPad Pilot News

Go / No-go: Real-time decision making for pilots

studentpilotnews.comairfactsjournal.com

Additional resourcesSit back, relax and learn!!

- Go/No-go articles - Real-world tips - Free Newsletters

Preflight Planning!

Electronic ResourcesPreflight Planning!

Aviation Weather Centeraviationweather.gov

iPad/Android AppsForeFlight, Garmin, WingX Pro

Electronic ResourcesPreflight Planning!

Lockheed Martin FSS1800wxbrief.com

Online Web ServicesFltplan.com, pilotbrief.com (WSI)

Weather BriefingPreflight Planning!

Big PictureSurface Analysis

Prog ChartsRadar/Satellite

DetailsMETARs, PIREPs,

TAFs


Preflight requirements!- 91.103 all information concerning the flight

- Runway lengths, performance- IFR & away from the vicinity of the airport

- Weather, fuel, alternatives

There is no Official Weather Briefing!


ConvectionRadar, Convective Outlook,

Convective Forecast, SIGMETs, PIREPs

TurbulenceClear Air & Mountain Wave forecasts, AIRMETs, PIREPs

IcingFreezing Level chart, Icing Probability Analysis, Icing

Severity, AIRMETs, PIREPs


IFR Alternate Requirements!- Filed alternate vs. whats practical- Alternate airport -> GPS approach

considerations!

Facilities BriefingPreflight Planning!

Importance of the A/FD in the age of appsContains critical information not found in

other resources

Facilities BriefingPreflight Planning!

Do your research:- Review airport diagram- Satellite aerial imagery- Fuel options- Maintenance- Airport lighting systems & control

Call ahead to airport or!FBO with questions!

NOTAMs 2 TypesPreflight Planning!

D NOTAMs FDC NOTAMs

Route ConsiderationPreflight Planning!

Things to consider:- Terrain- Airspace- TFRs- Traffic Flow- Weather- Aircraft capabilities- Contingencies

Altitude Selection- Direction of Flight- Minimum altitudes (91.119 500 at all times)- Off-route minimum obstruction altitudes

Aircraft ConsiderationsPreflight Planning!

Inoperative Equipment!- MEL vs. Required Equipment List- Is it safe and have appropriate steps been

taken for deferrals?!Required Inspections!!Oxygen Use!- 12,500/14,000/15,000- Best-practice 5,000 Night, 10,000 Day- Pressurized? Need 10 min supply > FL250

Physiological ConsiderationsPreflight Planning!

Medical Certification! IMSAFE- Illness- Medication- Stress- Alcohol (+passenger considerations)- Fatigue- Eating

Pilot ProficiencyPreflight Planning!

Am I current? Regulatory vs. Prudence!- Flight Review- Day/Night landingsIFR Currency!- 6 approaches, nav tracking, holding w/in 6 months- IPC- Use FTD or ATD to maintain currency (61.57)!

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Pilot ProficiencyPreflight Planning!

Night Flying!- Equipment requirements- Cockpit organization- Proficiency!

Putting it all togetherPreflight Planning!

Pilot Factors!IMSAFEDay currencyNight currencyIFR CurrencyTrip urgency

Flight Planning Factors!Airport/runway suitabilityRoutingNOTAMs/TFRs

Weather Factors!Terminal airport weatherEn Route hazards (thunderstorms/turbulence/icing)

Equipment Factors!Weight & BalanceFuelMaintenanceCharts/EFB/Gear

California VFR Flight!Scenario #1

Santa Barbara, CA (KSBA)!

toSan Diego!

Montgomery Field!(KMYF)

California VFR Flight Cessna 182

California VFR Flight Cessna 182AIRPLANE

Cessna 182 SkylaneGarmin G1000

AutopilotXM Datalink Weather

iPad/ForeFlight

PILOT PROFILE

Private PilotInstrument Rating (not current)Night current (for pax carrying)

Business owner / trip700 hours in the C182

1 passenger (business associate)

KSBA -> KMYFDeparture time 0030Z

(4:30pm local)

Time en route 1.1 hrsSunset is 0145Z

FLIGHT


Santa Barbara (KSBA)!Long Runways

Instrument Approaches (ILS)

San Diego Montgomery Field (KMYF)!Long Runways

Instrument Approaches (ILS)!

Airport Considerations


Direct isnt always best; flight over water considerations!

Route Considerations


Route goes through Los Angeles Class B airspace!

Airspace Considerations


ForeFlight -> Documents -> FAA -> FLY Charts!

Airspace Considerations

California VFR Flight Cessna 182Airspace Considerations

California VFR Flight Cessna 182Weather Briefing (0030Z departure)


Valid 0000Z! Valid 0600Z!


Proposed Departure: 0030Z!Time en route: 1:06 hours!Proposed Arrival: 0136Z!

Fuel Requirements

Considerations:!

Sunset is 0145ZWeather deviationsATC/Traffic routing/delaysFAR: land with 30 minutes DAY, 45 minutes NIGHTFAR Min Fuel vs. Extra reserves

Smart Fuel: 1:06 + 1:00 reserves = 2:06

California VFR Flight Cessna 182Pilot Considerations

Pilot Variables:!

- Recovering from a head cold- Taking Tylenol Cold (Rule of 5)- Work Pressures to make the trip- Doesnt sleep well in hotels

How do these affect your decision?!!- IMSAFE Checklist- FAA-Approved Medications

California VFR Flight Cessna 182Aircraft Considerations

Inoperative Equipment:!

Navigation Lights

How do this affect your decision?!!Required for operations from sunset to sunriseIncreased pressure to land before sunset

Proposed arrival time is 9 minutes before sunset

California VFR Flight Cessna 182Time to make a decision

Pilot Factors!HealthDay currencyNight currencyIFR CurrencyTrip urgency

Airplane Factors!Weight & BalanceFuelMaintenance

Weather Factors!VFR CeilingVFR VisibilityThunderstorms/icing/turbulence/winds

!!

California VFR Flight Cessna 182Time to make a decision

What are my outs?

1) Wait until the morning (good VFR weather forecast)

2) Depart as planned, be prepared to land at an alternate if weather deteriorates

3) If you get caught in IFR weather, you have the skills to fly an approach to get safely on the ground (though this wouldnt be legal)

4) If delays push you towards a sunset landing, diversion possible (inop nav lights)!

California VFR Flight Cessna 182Howd the flight go?

Importance of! Passenger Briefing!

!Weather Variables!- Ceilings and visibility good for departure- Visibility as low as 3 SM and 1,400 ceilings,

moderate rain showers- Thunderstorms/turbulence/icing not a factor- VFR over the top is an option (not VFR ON TOP)

Passenger needs to make phone call en route!Is this legal?!

Fall IFR Flight!Scenario #2

Rochester, NY (KROC)!to

Columbus, OH (KOSU)

Fall IFR Flight Cirrus SR-22

AIRPLANE

Cirrus SR-22Avidyne GPS/Moving-Map

AutopilotiPad/ForeFlight

PILOT PROFILE

Private PilotInstrument Rating

Night current Business trip

200 hours in the SR-22600 hours total (70 in last 6 months)

KROC -> KOSUDeparture time 2330Z

(6:30pm local)


FLIGHT


Rochester (KROC)!Long Runways

Instrument Approaches (ILS)ATC Control Tower

Columbus, OH (KOSU)!Long Runways


!

Airport ConsiderationsFall IFR Flight Cirrus SR-22

Weather Briefing (2330Z Departure)Fall IFR Flight Cirrus SR-22

Flight Planning ConsiderationsFall IFR Flight Cirrus SR-22

Route Selection!- Airspace consideration- Terrain/Min IFR Altitudes- Weather/Ice!

Flight Planning Considerations

Additional Factors!- Night- Survivability- Potential radar coverage issues (ice)- IFR position reporting!


Route/Altitude Selection

Minimum En Route Altitude(MEA) 3,000 MSL

Off Route Obstruction ClearanceAltitude (OROCA) 3,500 MSL



Minimum Obstruction Clearance Altitude(MOCA) 2,100 MSL

does not guarantee radar coverageor radio reception (beyond 22 NM of the VOR)



MEA 2,800 3,000 MSLStart off on airways

OROCA 3,500 MSLProceed direct

Minimum IFR Altitude!4,000 MSL!


Fuel Planning

IFR Night Flight!

Alternate Required?!

- P6SM & Clouds Broken 2,400- Alternate required: 1 hour beforeto 1 hour after ETA, Ceiling < 2,000and Visibility < 3 SM


Fuel Planning


Considerations:!

Sunset is 0000ZWeather deviations and/or diversionFAR: fly to destination, then to alternate and land with 45 minutes fuelFAR Min Fuel vs. Extra reserves



Pilot Considerations

Pilot Variables:!

- Up early in the morning - Long day of meetings- Critical business decisions- Commitments early next morning

How do these affect your decision?!!- IMSAFE Checklist- Fatigue affects night vision & decision making


Time to make a decision

Pilot Factors!Health/fatigueDay currencyNight currencyIFR CurrencyTrip urgency


Weather Factors!Destination ceiling/visibility for approachThunderstorms/turbulence Icing!


Time to make a decision

What are my outs?

Wait until the morning (Cold front and low pressure move out of area)

Depart as planned, be prepared fly at MEA if ice becomes a factor at higher altitudes

If weather gets convective or you pick up in-flight ice, request routing to the south

!!


Howd the flight go?

Weather Variables- Moderate turbulence (unforecast)- ATC Emergency (ice)

ATC/Navigation Variables - Out of radar contact when amended

routing becomes necessary - Loss of Comm at low altitudes - ATC Emergency (weather)


New England VFR Flight!Scenario #3

Burke Lakefront!Cleveland, OH (KBKL)!

toClaremont, NH (KCNH)

New England VFR Flight Bonanza A36

New England VFR Flight Bonanza A36

PILOT PROFILE

Private Pilot!

No Instrument Rating Night current (for pax carrying)

Family Trip500 hours in the A363 passengers (family)

AIRPLANE

Bonanza A36!

GPS-equippedAutopilot

ADS-B In Weather (iPad)

KBKL-> KCNH!

Departure time 0200Z(9:00pm local)


FLIGHT

Burke Lakefront (KBKL)!Long Runway

Instrument Approaches (ILS)ATC Tower

Claremont Municipal (KCNH)!3,100 Runway

Non-precision instrument approachNon-towered

!

Airport ConsiderationsNew England VFR Flight Bonanza A36

Review A/FD for Destination!Rwy 11 Threshold displace 1,055Self-service fuel informationExpect downdraft appch to Rwy 29Rotating beacon difficult to see from

the northACTIVATE MIRL Rwy 11-29 and REIL

Rwy 29-CTAFFSS RCO Frequency


NOTAMS for Departure Airport!Upcoming Race on the runways

Runway 6R/24L CLOSEDRunway 24R reduced to 2,500 usable

How does this affect performance planning and W&B?


Route ConsiderationsNew England VFR Flight Bonanza A36

Route Selection!- Winter flying- Survivability- Cold weather gear (off-airport ldg.)

Weather Briefing (0200Z Departure)New England VFR Flight Bonanza A36


KBKL 152353Z 16006KT 10SM OVC100 06/M02 A3018 RMK AO2 SLP224 T00561017 10072 20050 53002 KBKL 160053Z 14005KT 10SM SCT095 05/M02 A3017 RMK AO2 SLP220 T00501017 KBKL 160153Z 15010G16KT 10SM OVC085 05/M01 A3015 RMK AO2 SLP215 T00501011

Departure METAR


KCLE 152339Z 1600/1706 17006KT P6SM SCT050 OVC080 TEMPO 1602/1605 4SM -RA SCT025 OVC035 FM160500 16008KT 5SM -RA BR SCT025 OVC035 FM160900 16008KT 4SM -RA BR SCT015 OVC025 TEMPO 1612/1616 1 1/2SM -RA BR SCT006 OVC012 FM161800 25010KT P6SM OVC025 FM162100 26010KT P6SM OVC035

Departure TAF


KBUF 160254Z 13006KT 10SM FEW100 SCT250 M01/M04 A3020 RMK AO2 SLP237 T10111044 55009

KALB 160251Z 27005KT 10SM OVC036 02/M02 A3029 RMK AO2 SLP259 T00221017 51008

En Route METARs


KLEB 160153Z 00000KT 10SM BKN027 OVC038 02/M02 A3021 RMK AO2 SLP239 T00171022

KVSF 160154Z AUTO 28003KT 10SM FEW026 SCT034 OVC041 03/M02 A3023 RMK AO2 SLP243 T00331017

METARs near destination


KALB 152326Z 1600/1624 00000KT P6SM FEW040 FEW090

FM160600 00000KT P6SM SCT110 SCT250

FM161200 VRB03KT P6SM BKN110 OVC200

FM161800 17004KT 4SM -RA BR SCT020 BKN035 OVC070

Closest TAF (70 NM southwest)

Fuel RequirementsNew England VFR Flight Bonanza A36


Considerations:!

Sunset is 2300ZFAR: land with 30 minutes DAY, 45 minutes NIGHTFAR Min Fuel vs. Extra reserves (may need to travel further East if ceilings drop)


Pilot ConsiderationsNew England VFR Flight Bonanza A36

Pilot Variables:!

- Family pressures to get to vacation- Several drinks the night before- Former smoker- Commitments early next morning

How do these affect your decision?!!- IMSAFE Checklist- External habits affects night vision & decision making

Aircraft ConsiderationsNew England VFR Flight Bonanza A36

Intermittent Oil Pressure Warning Light!

Forgot to charge iPad (primary charts)!No backup & no charging source

Navigation Lights!Operating Requirements

Time to make a decisionNew England VFR Flight Bonanza A36


Airplane Factors!PerformanceWeight & BalanceFuelMaintenance

Weather Factors!Departure Clouds/CeilingArrival Clouds/CeilingWX Hazards (thunderstorms/turbulence/icing)!

Time to make a decisionNew England VFR Flight Bonanza A36

What are my outs?

1) Wait until the morning (good VFR weather forecast)

2) Depart as planned, be prepared to descend to lower altitude if ceilings lower

3) If ADS-B METAR updates indicated low ceilings while en route, divert to the east where good VFR weather is in the forecast (fuel considerations?)

Howd the flight go?New England VFR Flight Bonanza A36

Weather Encountered- Mist in Cleveland at departure reduces visibility

for Takeoff to 2 miles Special VFR?- Keep up with METAR reports near destination

with ADS-B datalink weather on the iPad

- Inadvertent flight into IMC nearing destination

Importance of!Passenger Briefing!

Howd the flight go?New England VFR Flight Bonanza A36

En Route Decision Making- Oxygen use at 9,500 (Night flight)

- Disposable BOOST canisters- Oil Pressure warning on descent to destination

- Checklist? Procedure?

- Runway light activation for landing- Landing light inop- Black hole effect during landing- Displaced threshold Rwy 11

Texas IFR Flight!Scenario #4

Shreveport, LA (KDTN)!to

Amarillo, TX (KAMA)

Texas IFR Flight Piper Aztec

PILOT PROFILE

Commercial Pilot!

Instrument Rating (current) Night current Business Trip

3,000 hours in the AztecCo-pilot: CFI in need of twin time

AIRPLANE

Piper Aztec!

Dual WAAS GPSAutopilot

iPad/ADS-B WX

Texas IFR Flight Piper Aztec

KSHV -> KAMA!

Departure time 2050Z(3:50pm local)


FLIGHT

Shreveport (KDTN)!Long Runways


Amarillo (KAMA)Long Runways


Airport ConsiderationsTexas IFR Flight Piper Aztec

MOAs along the route!Could present a challenge if a course deviation is required for weather

Airspace ConsiderationsTexas IFR Flight Piper Aztec

Weather Briefing (2050Z departure)Texas IFR Flight Piper Aztec


Convective Forecast Planning! Convective Outlook!

These are examples of forecasts (not to be used for the Texas IFR scenario)

Fuel RequirementsTexas IFR Flight Piper Aztec


Considerations:!

FAR: land with 30 minutes DAYFAR Min Fuel vs. Extra reserves (potential thunderstorm deviations or diversion)


Pilot ConsiderationsTexas IFR Flight Piper Aztec

Pilot Variables:!

- Well-rested and no external distractions- Experienced CFI on-board, reduced pilot workload

How do these affect your decision?!!- IMSAFE Checklist- Full decision-making capacities dedicated to the flight- Can 2 pilots talk each other into taking unnecessary risk?- Who is PIC and makes the ultimate decision?

(

Aircraft ConsiderationsTexas IFR Flight Piper Aztec

ADS-B Datalink Weather!5 10 minute delay, no close WX flying

! De-ice boots placarded inoperative

Time to make a decisionTexas IFR Flight Piper Aztec



Weather Factors!Destination ceiling/visibility for approachThunderstorms/turbulence Icing!

Time to make a decisionTexas IFR Flight Piper Aztec

What are my outs?

1) Wait until the morning (warm front moves out of the area)

2) Depart as planned, use all resources to find a route through the convective weather

3) Depart as planned, divert before crossing the line if no holes are available

Howd the flight go?Texas IFR Flight Piper Aztec

Weather Encountered- Moderate turbulence along front- Datalink WX shows line filling in, no holes- Divert to North Texas Regional Airport, wait it out

Importance of!2-pilot Crew Briefing!

Eric Radtke & Bret Koebbe!

Go / No-goRealtime decision making for pilots

Sportys Academy

the go/no-go decision: real-time decision making for pilots

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