See inside for further details Berg Insight’s M2M Research SeriesWhat are the key business opportunities in the emerging wireless M2M/IoT market? Berg Insight’s M2M Research Series is a unique series of 35 market reports published on a regular basis. Each title offers detailed analysis of a specific vertical application area such as smart homes, smart metering, fleet management and car telematics, or covers horizontal topics including IoT platforms, software, hardware, IoT connectivity statistics and the mobile operators’ IoT strategies.

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The Global M2M/IoT Communications Market analyses the latest trends and developments in cellular IoT and low power wireless networking.

This strategic research report from Berg Insight provides you with 180 pages of unique business intelligence including 5-year industry forecasts and expert commentary on which to base your business decisions. Highlights from the report: 360-degree overview of the cellular IoT communications

ecosystem.

Update on the adoption of NB-IoT and LPWA standards for M2M/IoT networking.

Reviews of the IoT strategies of leading mobile operators.

Summary of industry trends in all world regions.

IoT business KPIs for leading global mobile operators.

Statistical data on cellular IoT subscribers in all world regions.

Extensive global and regional market forecasts lasting until 2023.

The Global M2M/IoT Communications Market

M2M Research Series

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Cellular IoT subscribers (World 2017-2023)

Global cellular IoT connections hit 1 billion in 2018Berg Insight estimates that the global number of cellular IoT subscribers increased by 70 percent during 2018 to reach 1.21 billion at the end of the year – corresponding to around 13 percent of all mobile subscribers. Until 2023, the number of cellular IoT subscribers is forecasted to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 49.4 percent to reach 9.03 billion at the end of the period. During the same period, cellular IoT network revenues are forecasted to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 34.4 percent from € 6.7 billion in 2018 to approximately € 29.4 billion in 2023. Meanwhile the monthly ARPU is expected to drop to € 0.27.

East Asia was the largest region with 848.0 million IoT subscribers at the end of 2018, far ahead of Western Europe and North America with 157.6 million and 111.7 million respectively. Altogether the main regions accounted for over 95 percent of the global installed base. Latin America, South Asia, Southeast Asia and Russia & CIS had in the range of 19–32 million cellular IoT subscribers each, while Africa, Middle East, Central Eastern Europe, and Australia & Oceania were in the span 7–19 million.

China is the world’s largest market for cellular IoT connectivity services by volume. According to operator subscriber data, the installed base grew by 124 percent year-on-year to reach 767 million at the end of 2018. This corresponded to 63 percent of the global installed base. The spectacular numbers reported by the domestic mobile operators leave no doubt that China is leading the global adoption of massive IoT. The country has surpassed Europe and North America in terms of penetration rate – 54.7 IoT connections per 100 inhabitants at the end of 2018 – and is on track to reach 1 billion IoT connections during 2019. The Chinese government is actively driving adoption as a tool for achieving domestic and economic policy goals, at the same time as the private sector implements IoT technology to improve efficiency and drive innovation. Berg Insight believes that the role of the government is the main explanation for why China is ahead of the rest of the world in the adoption of IoT. Like other advanced economies, the country has widespread adoption of connected cars, fleet management, smart metering, asset monitoring and other traditional applications for cellular IoT. It has also given rise to new consumer services enabled by connectivity like bike sharing. The most distinctive characteristic

of the Chinese IoT market is however the way that the government is systematically using new technology to implement its vision for urban life in the 21st century.

China Mobile is the world’s largest provider of cellular IoT connectivity. At the end of 2018, the operator reported 551 million IoT connections and a year-on-year growth rate of 141 percent. China Unicom and China Telecom ranked second and third with 110 million and 106 million connections respectively. Vodafone ranked first among the Western operators and fourth overall with 81 million connections, followed by AT&T in fifth place with 51 million. Verizon, Deutsche Telekom and Telefónica had in the range 25–35 million cellular IoT connections. Softbank/Sprint and Telenor were the last players in the top ten with 21 million and 17 million connections respectively. Year-on-year growth rates for the mentioned operators were in the span 20–35 percent, except for Softbank/Sprint that only grew 3 percent.

IoT connectivity revenues are growing at a considerably slower rate than the number of connections. Berg Insight’s analysis of the IoT business KPIs released by mobile operators in different parts of the world suggests that global IoT revenues increased by around 19 percent during 2018, while the monthly APRU dropped by 30 percent. Excluding China, the trend was less dramatic with revenues growing by 16 percent and ARPU declining 7 percent. Indeed, there is a negative correlation between growth in connections and monthly ARPU as the bulk of net additions are cost sensitive devices.

Verizon reported the highest IoT revenues of € 1.4 billion (US$ 1.6 billion) in 2018 and the highest monthly ARPU of an estimated € 3.65. Around 60 percent of sales derived from the Verizon Connect fleet management and telematics business. China Mobile ranked second with yearly IoT sales of € 964 million but had the lowest monthly ARPU of just € 0.21. Vodafone and AT&T were not far behind. Annual IoT revenues for the Vodafone group in 2018 were approximately € 830 million, with a monthly ARPU of € 0.82. AT&T does not report IoT revenues but is believed to have generated approximately € 750–800 million.

How will the global cellular IoT market evolve over the next five years?

Why has China become the world’s largest market for cellular IoT?

Which are the main market trends in Europe and North America?

What is the status of cellular IoT in emerging markets?

What impact will 5G have on the IoT market?

What are the leading global mobile operators’ strategies for the IoT market?

How much revenues did leading telecom groups generate from IoT in 2018?

What is the outlook for emerging low power wireless networking technologies?

M2M Research Series

1 Wide area networks for the Internet of Things 1.1 3GPP family of cellular technologies 1.1.1 3GPP Release 13 – Introducing LTE-M

and NB-IoT 1.1.2 3GPP Release 14 – IoT enhancements

and V2X 1.1.3 3GPP Release 15 and 16 – 5G Phase 1

and 2 1.1.4 Network footprint 1.2 LPWA and satellite

technologies 1.2.1 LoRa 1.2.2 Sigfox 1.2.3 Satellite networks 1.3 IoT networking platforms 1.3.1 IoT connectivity management platforms 1.3.2 SIM solutions and embedded UICC 1.4 International coverage and alliances 1.4.1 Roaming and international coverage 1.4.2 Mobile operator alliances

2 Europe 2.1 Regional market trends 2.1.1 Western Europe 2.1.2 Central Eastern Europe 2.1.3 Russia & CIS 2.2 Mobile operators 2.2.1 Vodafone 2.2.2 Deutsche Telekom 2.2.3 Orange 2.2.4 Telefónica 2.2.5 Telenor 2.2.6 3 Group Europe 2.2.7 A1 Telekom Austria 2.2.8 Altice Europe 2.2.9 Bouygues Telecom 2.2.10 BT Group 2.2.11 JT Group 2.2.12 KPN 2.2.13 Megafon 2.2.14 MTS 2.2.15 POST Luxembourg 2.2.16 Proximus 2.2.17 Telecom Italia 2.2.18 Telia Company 2.2.19 Tele2 2.2.20 UtilityConnect 2.3 IoT managed service providers 2.3.1 1NCE 2.3.2 1oT 2.3.3 Arkessa 2.3.4 Arm ISG 2.3.5 BICS 2.3.6 Com4 2.3.7 Cubic Telecom 2.3.8 EMnify 2.3.9 Eseye

2.3.10 Freeeway 2.3.11 iBASIS 2.3.12 Matooma 2.3.13 Sierra Wireless 2.3.14 Thingstream 2.3.15 Transatel 2.3.16 Wireless Logic 2.4 LPWA networks 2.4.1 LoRa networks 2.4.2 Sigfox and network partners

3 The Americas 3.1 Regional market trends 3.1.1 United States and Canada 3.1.2 Brazil 3.1.3 Rest of Latin America 3.2 Mobile operators 3.2.1 AT&T 3.2.2 Verizon 3.2.3 T-Mobile USA 3.2.4 Sprint 3.2.5 Rogers Communications 3.2.6 América Móvil 3.2.7 Vivo and Telefónica Latin America 3.2.8 Other mobile operators in Latin America 3.3 IoT managed service providers 3.3.1 Aeris 3.3.2 KORE Wireless 3.3.3 Twilio 3.4 Satellite networks 3.4.1 Orbcomm 3.4.2 Inmarsat 3.4.3 Iridium 3.4.4 Globalstar 3.5 LPWA networks 3.5.1 LoRa networks 3.5.2 Sigfox and network partners

4 Asia-Pacific 4.1 Regional market trends 4.1.1 China 4.1.2 Japan and South Korea 4.1.3 Australia and New Zealand 4.1.4 India 4.1.5 Southeast Asia 4.2 Mobile operators 4.2.1 China Mobile 4.2.2 China Unicom 4.2.3 China Telecom 4.2.4 Softbank 4.2.5 NTT Docomo 4.2.6 KDDI 4.2.7 SK Telecom 4.2.8 KT 4.2.9 Telstra 4.2.10 Singtel 4.2.11 Vodafone Idea

4.3 IoT managed service providers 4.3.1 Plintron 4.3.2 Soracom 4.3.3 Tata Communications 4.3.4 Unlimit 4.4 LPWA networks 4.4.1 LoRa networks 4.4.2 Sigfox networks

5 Middle East & Africa 5.1 Regional market trends 5.1.1 Middle East 5.1.2 Africa 5.2 Mobile operators 5.2.1 Etisalat 5.2.2 MTN 5.2.3 Ooredoo 5.2.4 Turkcell 5.2.5 Vodacom 5.2.6 Zain 5.3 LPWA networks

6 Market forecasts and trends 6.1 Industry trends 6.1.1 Top ten mobile operators achieve 1 billion

cellular IoT subscribers 6.1.2 IoT revenues continue to grow slower than

connections 6.1.3 IoT managed service providers connect

40+ million cellular devices 6.1.4 International carriers enter the cellular IoT

market 6.1.5 New entrants disrupt distribution channels 6.2 Geographic markets 6.2.1 Global market summary 6.2.2 Europe 6.2.3 North America 6.2.4 Latin America 6.2.5 Asia-Pacific 6.2.6 Middle East & Africa 6.3 Vertical markets 6.3.1 Connected cars on the rise 6.3.2 Telematics giants increasingly dominate

the fleet management industry 6.3.3 Smarter grids and safer cities 6.3.4 Industry 4.0 gains momentum 6.3.5 Connected healthcare reaches the

masses 6.4 Technology trends 6.4.1 Cellular technologies dominate wireless

IoT 6.4.2 The 2G-era is coming to an end 6.4.3 China leads the adoption of NB-IoT 6.4.4 5G will have limited short-term impact on

IoT 6.4.5 Cloud platforms are becoming the centre

of gravity for IoT

Glossary

Executive Summary

Table of Contents

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The Global M2M/IoT Communications Market is the foremost source of information about cellular IoT and low power wireless networking in all regions and major M2M/IoT vertical markets. Whether you are a chipset or module vendor, software vendor, utility, vehicle manufacturer, telecom operator, investor, consultant, or government agency, you will gain valuable insights from our in-depth research.

IoT Platforms and Software Cellular and LPWA IoT Device Ecosystems Smart Homes and Home Automation The 350 Largest Cellular IoT Projects Worldwide

Tobias Ryberg is co-founder and principal analyst responsible for the IoT research series. He is an experienced analyst and author of numerous articles and reports about IT and telecom for leading Swedish and international publishers. All major vertical market segments for Wireless M2M/IoT have been his major research area for the past 16 years.

Berg Insight offers premier business intelligence to the telecom industry. We produce concise reports providing key facts and strategic insights about pivotal developments in our focus areas. Berg Insight also offers detailed market forecast databases and advisory services. Our vision is to be the most valuable source of intelligence for our customers.

About the Author

See inside for further details Berg Insight’s M2M Research SeriesWhat are the key business opportunities in the emerging wireless M2M/IoT market? Berg Insight’s M2M Research Series is a unique series of 40 market reports published on a regular basis. Each title offers detailed analysis of a specific vertical application area such as smart metering, fleet management or car telematics. Once per year we also publish summaries of our research with detailed forecasts for the Global and European wireless M2M markets respectively.

www.berginsight.com

Cellular and LPWA IoT Device Ecosystems gives a comprehensive overview of the main wide area networking technologies for the Internet of Things – 2G/3G/4G/5G cellular, LoRa, Sigfox and 802.15.4 WAN.

This strategic research report from Berg Insight provides you with 120 pages of unique business intelligence including 5-year industry forecasts and expert commentary on which to base your business decisions. Highlights from the report: 360-degree overview of the main IoT wide area networking

ecosystems.

Comparison of technologies and standards.

Updated profiles of the main suppliers of IoT chipsets and modules.

Cellular IoT module market data for 2018.

Early adoption trends for emerging LPWA technologies.

Cellular and non-cellular LPWA IoT device market forecast until 2023.

Cellular and LPWA IoT Device Ecosystems

M2M Research Series

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Cellular

Non-cellular LPWA

Annual shipments of cellular/non-cellular LPWA IoT devices (World 2017-2023)

5G will reach the IoT market in late 2020The Internet of Things is weaving a new worldwide web of interconnected objects. At the end of 2018, approximately 1.3 billion devices were connected to wide area networks based on cellular or LPWA technologies. The market is highly diverse and divided into multiple ecosystems. This report will focus on the four most prominent technology ecosystems for wide area IoT networking – the 3GPP ecosystem of cellular technologies, the emerging LPWA technologies LoRa and Sigfox and the 802.15.4 ecosystem.

The 3GPP family of cellular technologies support the biggest ecosystem in wide area IoT networking. Berg Insight estimates that the global number of cellular IoT subscribers increased by 70.0 percent during 2018 to reach 1.2 billion at the end of the year – corresponding to around 13.0 percent of all mobile subscribers. Yearly shipments of cellular IoT devices increased by 76.2 percent in 2018 to reach 651.9 million units. Growth was fuelled by an exceptional market expansion in China, where the installed base of cellular IoT connections increased by 124.1 percent year-on-year to reach 767.0 million at the end of 2018.

The cellular IoT technology landscape is in a phase of rapid transformation. Developments in China accelerate a global shift from 2G/3G to 4G technologies. As the initial focus for 5G will be high-bandwidth applications, Berg Insight believes that 4G will become the preferred platform for IoT in the foreseeable future. The move from 2G to 4G began in North America with 3G as an intermediate technology. The region has seen rapid uptake of LTE CAT-1 since 2017 and CAT-M starting in 2018 at the same time as GPRS and CDMA are fading away. Europe began to see adoption of LTE CAT-1 in 2018 and is now followed by an accelerated uptake of LTE-M and NB-IoT in 2019/2020. China is moving fast from GPRS to NB-IoT in the mass-market segment and cumulative NB-IoT shipments are expected to exceed 190 million units by the end of 2019. At the same time there will also be fast-growing demand for LTE CAT-1 and LTE-M, as well as LTE CAT-3+. 2G and 3G will be in steady decline in all developed markets with demand shifting to developing countries with limited availability of 4G networks. Berg Insight expects that 5G will become commercially available for verticals such as automotive in 2020.

LoRa is gaining momentum as a global connectivity platform for IoT devices. According to Semtech, the global installed base of LoRa

devices was approximately 87 million at the beginning of 2019. The first major volume application segments are smart gas and water metering, where LoRa’s low power consumption matches the requirements for long-life battery operation. LoRa is also gaining traction for metropolitan area and local area IoT deployments as a platform for networking smart sensors in cities, buildings, manufacturing plants and similar. Semtech has stated that it generated in the range of US$ 78 million in revenues from LoRa chips in its financial year ending in January 2019 and expects to reach US$ 100–140 million in fiscal 2020. Berg Insight estimates that yearly shipments of LoRa devices were 36.3 million units in 2018. Until 2023, yearly shipments are forecasted to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 33.7 percent to reach 155.0 million units. While the Asia-Pacific region accounted for about 60 percent of total shipments in 2018, LoRa device shipments in Europe and North America are expected to scale into significant volumes in the coming years as early adopters move from pilots to large-scale deployments.

Sigfox has very ambitious plans for establishing the technology bearing the company’s name as the leading global platform for ultra-narrow band IoT networks. In order to meet its strategic goals, Sigfox must be able to break into entirely new mass-volume device segments and prove its capability to create value by adding connectivity to things that never communicated before. At the end of 2018, Sigfox reported 6.2 million connected devices. In a positive scenario where early trials ramp up to large-scale commercial deployments, Berg Insight forecasts that shipments of Sigfox devices will grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 63.1 percent from 3.8 million units in 2018 to 43.9 million units by 2023.

802.15.4 WAN is an established connectivity platform for private wide area wireless mesh networks used for applications such as smart metering. Faced with increasing competition from emerging LPWA standards, 802.15.4 WAN is however only expected to grow at moderate rate in the coming years. Berg Insight forecasts that shipments of 802.15.4 WAN devices will grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 19.3 percent from 19.3 million units in 2018 to 46.6 million units by 2023. Smart metering is expected to account for the bulk of demand. Wi-SUN is the leading industry standard for smart electricity metering networks in North America, with adoption also spreading to Asia-Pacific and Europe.

How will the IoT wide area networking technology market evolve over the next five years?

Who are the new challengers in the cellular IoT module market?

Which new mass-volume segments can be addressed by low-cost LPWA technologies?

Why are the new standards LTE-M and NB-IoT so significant for the cellular IoT ecosystem?

How are Chinese national policies driving the migration from 2G to 4G?

When will 5G appear in the cellular IoT market?

What is the current installed base of LoRa and Sigfox?

What are the prospects for emerging LPWA technology standards?

M2M Research Series

1 Wide area networks for the Internet of Things 1.1 Which things will be connected to wide

area networks? 1.1.1 Utility meters 1.1.2 Motor vehicles 1.1.3 Buildings 1.1.4 Low value assets – Industry 4.0 and

consumer products 1.1.5 Future opportunities in smart cities and

agriculture 1.2 What are the technology options? 1.2.1 Network architectures 1.2.2 Unlicensed and licensed frequency bands 1.3 Which are the leading technology

ecosystems?

2 3GPP ecosystem 2.1 Technology characteristics 2.1.1 3GPP Release 13 – Introducing LTE-M and

NB-IoT 2.1.2 3GPP Release 14 – IoT enhancements

and V2X 2.1.3 3GPP Release 15 and 16 – 5G Phase 1

and 2 2.1.4 Network footprint 2.1.5 2G mobile networks 2.1.6 3G/4G mobile networks 2.1.7 4G mobile IoT networks (LTE-M and NB-

IoT) 2.1.8 5G networks 2.2 Semiconductor vendors 2.2.1 Altair Semiconductor 2.2.2 GCT Semiconductor 2.2.3 HiSilicon 2.2.4 Intel 2.2.5 MediaTek 2.2.6 Qualcomm

2.2.7 Samsung Electronics 2.2.8 Sanechips Technology 2.2.9 Sequans Communications 2.2.10 UNISOC (Unigroup Spreadtrum & RDA) 2.3 Module vendors 2.3.1 Cheerzing 2.3.2 Fibocom 2.3.3 Gemalto 2.3.4 Gosuncn WeLink 2.3.5 Neoway 2.3.6 Nordic Semiconductor 2.3.7 Quectel 2.3.8 Sierra Wireless 2.3.9 Sunsea AIoT (SIMCom & Longsung) 2.3.10 Telit 2.3.11 u-blox 2.3.12 Other cellular IoT module vendors

3 LoRa ecosystem 3.1 Technology characteristics 3.2 Network footprint 3.2.1 Europe 3.2.2 Asia-Pacific 3.2.3 The Americas 3.2.4 Middle East & Africa 3.3 Semiconductor and module vendors 3.3.1 Semtech 3.3.2 LoRa module vendors

4 Sigfox ecosystem 4.1 Technology characteristics 4.2 Network footprint 4.2.1 Europe 4.2.2 The Americas 4.2.3 Asia-Pacific 4.2.4 Middle East & Africa 4.2.5 Global satellite coverage planned in

collaboration with Eutelsat

4.3 Chipset and module vendors 4.3.1 Chipset vendors 4.3.2 Sigfox module vendors

5 802.15.4 WAN ecosystem 5.1 Technology characteristics 5.1.1 IPv6 connectivity stacks based on 802.15.4 5.1.2 Wi-SUN 5.1.3 ZigBee 5.2 Network footprint 5.3 Chipsets and modules

6 Vertical market segments 6.1 Motor vehicles 6.1.1 OEM connected car applications 6.1.2 Aftermarket connected car applications 6.2 Energy & Infrastructure 6.2.1 Smart electricity metering 6.2.2 Smart gas and water metering 6.2.3 Smart cities 6.3 Industry & Transport 6.4 Other 6.4.1 Buildings & security 6.4.2 Consumer products 6.4.3 Payments

7 Market forecasts and trends 7.1 Market summary 7.2 3GPP family 7.2.1 Cellular IoT device market forecast 7.2.2 Europe 7.2.3 Americas 7.2.4 Asia-Pacific 7.2.5 Middle East & Africa 7.3 LoRa 7.4 Sigfox 7.5 802.15.4 WAN

Glossary

Executive Summary

Table of Contents

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You can place your order in the following alternative ways:

1. Place your order online in our web shop at www.berginsight.com 2. Mail this order sheet to us at: Berg Insight AB, Viktoriagatan 3, 411 25 Gothenburg, Sweden3. Email your order to: info@berginsight.com 4. Phone us at +46 31 711 30 91

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VAT is chargeable on all orders from Sweden. Orders from all other countries in the European Union must include the buyer’s VAT Registration number below in order to avoid the addition of VAT.

Reports will be dispatched once full payment has been received. For any enquiries regarding this, please contact us. Payment may be made by credit card, cheque made payable to Berg Insight AB, Viktoriagatan 3, 411 25 Gothenburg, Sweden or by direct bank transfer to Skandinaviska Enskilda Banken, 106 40 Stockholm, Sweden.

Account Holder: Berg Insight ABAccount number: 5011 10 402 80BIC/SWIFT: ESSESESSIBAN: SE92 5000 0000 0501 1104 0280

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Cellular and LPWA IoT Device Ecosystems is the foremost source of information about all the major wide area networking technologies for the Internet of Things. Whether you are a chipset or module vendor, software vendor, utility, vehicle manufacturer, telecom operator, investor, consultant, or government agency, you will gain valuable insights from our in-depth research.

IoT Platforms and Software The Global M2M/IoT Communications Market The 350 Largest Cellular IoT Projects Worldwide mHealth and Home Monitoring

Johan Fagerberg is co-founder and an experienced analyst with a Master’s degree in Electrical Engineering from Chalmers University of Technology. His areas of expertise include several wireless IoT markets including automotive telematics and fleet management.

Fredrik Stålbrand is an IoT/M2M Analyst with a Master’s degree in Industrial Engineering and Management from Chalmers University of Technology. He joined Berg Insight in 2016 and his areas of expertise

include Industrial IoT markets, M2M applications in the agriculture industry and IoT platforms.

Berg Insight offers premier business intelligence to the telecom industry. We produce concise reports providing key facts and strategic insights about pivotal developments in our focus areas. Berg Insight also offers detailed market forecast databases and advisory services. Our vision is to be the most valuable source of intelligence for our customers.

About the Author