the global crop protection market 2004 overvie · market overview crop protection market 2005 ......
TRANSCRIPT
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March, 2006
Product BriefingGoldman Sachs JBWere
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Dale Mellody Group General Manager – Global Marketing
Mike Pointon Global Product Manager - Glyphosate
Jean-Paul Genay Global Product Manager - Fungicides
Greg Healy Global Manager – Regulatory Affairs &Product Development
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Dale MellodyGroup General Manager – Global Marketing
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Market overview
Crop protection market 2005 - Total USD$33.6billion(excludes Biotech)
ROW7%
Asia24%
NAFTA26%
Europe26%
Latin America
17%
Sunflower1%Sugarbeet
2%
Sugarcane2%
Cotton8%
Rape 2%
Soybean10%
Rice9%
Maize11%
Cereals15%
TNVV27%
Other12%
Source - Agronova
by geography... by crop... by segment...
Fungicides23%
Insecticides26%
Herbicides46%
Other5%
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Top 10 Leading Crop Sectors 2004Top 10 Leading Crop Sectors 2004
Source - Phillips McDougall
Rank Crop Sector Sales 2004 (US$m) Growth 04/03
1 Fruit and vegetables Fungicides 3,311 16%2 Cereals Herbicides 2,926 14%3 Fruit and vegetables Insecticides 2,767 10%4 Maize Herbicides 2,622 6%5 Soybean Herbicides 2,208 14%6 Soybean AgBio 2,103 9%7 Maize AgBio 2,000 33%8 Fruit and vegetables Herbicides 1,795 9%9 Cereals Fungicides 1,613 35%10 Cotton Insecticides 1,522 13%
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Forecast 2009Forecast 2009
In chemistry, post patent companies will grow faster than proprietary companies
Consolidation will continue within segment but also across segments
Strong geographic growth in Latin America and Eastern Europe
Transfer of horticultural cropping to lower cost countries
Development of bio-energy crops in Europe and Brazil
Input prices will increase with possible squeeze on grower margins
Continued growth of GMO crops – Americas, India, China are key
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Strategic implicationsStrategic implications
Consolidate the Base with key customer understanding in all markets, geographies and industry segments that we serve.
Drive for Growth in key growth Crops and Geographies whilst simultaneously developing new growth platforms in the Seeds and value added crop input segments.
Continue to build the Nufarm Brand Franchise across new geographies and segments.
Develop key Relationships up and down the entire value chain in all segments in which we choose to operate.
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Nufarm global portfolioNufarm global portfolio
Phenoxy herbicides – global #1 position
Glyphosate – strong global position
Trifluralin – Australia and Canada
Copper fungicides – key global platform to build fungicide position
Bromoxynil – global JV with Bayer
Aminotriazole – Nufarm global herbicide position
Over 2,500 global product registrations
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Segment focus by regionSegment focus by region
US/Canada Sth America NEE France UK Spain Aust/NZ
Cereals Soybean Cereals TNVV Cereals TNVV Cereals
TNVV Corn Corn Cereals Potatoes Cereals Canola
Pasture Cereals OSR Potatoes IVM TNVV
IVM / Turf Sugarcane Potatoes IVM Pasture
Sugarbeet Pasture Cotton
Potatoes
Peanuts
Soybean
Corn
Cotton
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Corporate objectivesCorporate objectives
2005 2010 target
88%
8% 4%
75%
16%
9%
TOTAL: AUD $1,635m
Herbicides: $1390mFungicides: $130mInsecticides: $65m
Herbicides Insecticides Fungicides/PGR's
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Corporate objectivesCorporate objectives
HerbicidesInsecticidesFungicides/PGR's
2010 target
75%
16%
9%Herbicides less than 75% of total
Substantial increase in insecticide sales
Three fold increase in fungicides
Maintain focus on core chemistries
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Nufarm sales by geography Nufarm sales by geography
Australia37%
Europe33%
Americas22%
Asia4%
New Zealand
4%
20102005
Australia30%
New Zealand
4%
Asia4%Europe
33%
Americas29%
Sales AUD$1,635M* does not include Agripec
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Phenoxy herbicides
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Total Phenoxy Market - volumeTotal Phenoxy Market - volume
2,4-D70%
Methyls30%
Products
2,4-D
2,4-DB
2,4-DP
2,4-DP-p
MCPA
MCPB
MCPP
MCPP-p
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History Of 2,4-DHistory Of 2,4-D
2,4-D discovered as a selective herbicide in 1944
Herbicide development through the 1960’s and 1970’s increased dramatically – selective weed control results were spectacular
In the world today 2,4-D remains one of the most used herbicides –Why?
− Safety – environmental & handling− No resistance− Excellent mixing partner− Broadspectrum− Most economical
Used in cereals, rice, sugar cane, maize/corn, plantation, pastures, coffee, non-crop
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Nufarm’s 2,4-D HistoryNufarm’s 2,4-D History
Started manufacture in the late 1950’s in Melbourne, Australia
Entered the US markets in 1986
Joined US 2,4-D Task Force in 1988 to support the re-registration of 2,4-D
In 1995 acquired a second 2,4-D manufacturing facility in Austria (Nufarm Gmbh)
Today, Nufarm is the second largest 2,4-D producer in the world
CompetitionUS, Argentina, Mexico, India, PolandGlobal capacity has reducedGlobal market has remained stable
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Global 2,4-D marketGlobal 2,4-D market
Asia/Sub Continent
12%
Latin America22%
North America36%
MECSA (Middle East
Central & South Africa)
5%
Australia/NZ4%Europe
(CIS, West and East)
21%
Nufarm share
Australia 74%Nth America 24%Latin America 9%Europe 14%Asia 21%
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Strategy going forwardStrategy going forward
Price leadership in Brazil, the USA and EU will continue to be the focus for the short term.
Branded strategy – retain value in the molecule
Build up information base of global phenoxy companies
New market opportunities - Colombia
Product innovation & differentiation Premium formulationsCombinationsDry products
Molecule stewardship
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Mike PointonGlobal Product Manager - Glyphosate
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Glyphosate – put simplyGlyphosate – put simply
First introduced by Monsanto in 1972
The biggest and most widely used herbicide in the world
Key Features
Non selective activity
Low toxicity profile
Rapid breakdown after contact with soil
Completely systemic
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Glyphosate – Put SimplyGlyphosate – Put Simply
Major UsesPerennial weed control – industrial / recreationalConservation tillage (no till) farmingOver the top of Roundup Ready crops
Competitive ProductsGlufosinate ‘Basta’ and ‘Liberty’ Bayer Crop ScienceSulfosate ‘Touchdown’ SyngentaParaquat / Diquat ‘Spray Seed’ Syngenta
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GlyphosateGlyphosate in perspectivein perspective
Total Crop Protection Market 2005 US$ 33,600m
Global sales 2005 - US$ 3,200m
Global market share - 9%
Fungicides 23%
Insecticide 26%
All Other Herbicides
37%
Glyphosate 9%
Other 5%
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Glyphosate sales historyGlyphosate sales history
3045
3246
2851 29
32
3185
3200
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Tota
l Sal
es M
USD
USA Patents Expire
Generic Vol. Growth Increased Chinese Prices
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ANZ Distribution of Roundup brands / strong relationship with Monsanto / strong market presence
EU Developing positionInvestment in regulatory position
BR Strong presence with AgripecWell positioned to capture significant growth
AR We are present …. But with work to do!
USA Good sales growth in growing marketRegulatory position securePosition in RR crops secure
Asia Lowest barriers to entryNufarm presence focussed on Malaysia, Indonesia, Japan
Nufarm and GlyphosateNufarm and Glyphosate
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Glyphosate – key playersGlyphosate – key players
1. MonsantoPrimary registrantSeveral patents on differentiated productsWell integrated production capacity
Nufarm / Monsanto RelationshipNufarm is Monsanto’s largest customer
Exclusive global (tech) supply agreements currently under reviewReliable supply; assured quality
Nufarm is Monsanto’s largest competitor
2. Nufarm10% + Market share and growingStrong and developed position in all major markets
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Other major global competitorsOther major global competitors
Syngenta
M/Agan
Dow
Cheminova
Albaugh / Atanor
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Glyphosate – key global driversGlyphosate – key global drivers
Volume will continue to grow
Price elasticityContinued growth of RR crops – USA, Brazil, Argentina
Global production capacity will continue to grow esp. PRC
Generic competitors
Will always be presentBut number will stabilize
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Glyphosate – key global driversGlyphosate – key global drivers
Data requirements for registrationSignificant costsCountry / Region specific
Key elements for future successRegulatory positionDifferentiated productsOn ground presence in key market with distributors
Competitive cost position
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Jean-Paul GenayGlobal Product Manager - Fungicides
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Some definitions and figures on fungicidesSome definitions and figures on fungicides
Fungicides are plant protection products designed to control fungal diseases:
“contact” fungicides“penetrant” and “systemic” fungicides
Fungicides are #3 in terms of global crop protection sales (2004):23% of global crop protection market
Fungicides are the fastest growing segment within the conventional crop protection market
Source: Phillips McDougall
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Fungicide markets by regions and cropsFungicide markets by regions and crops
Europe3342 m
45%
Asia/Pacific1687 m
23%
Africa-Middle East
122 m2%
North America
798 m11%
Latin America1381 m
19%
Source: Phillips McDougall
Regional split (2004)
Other F&V19%
All others10%
Rice9%
Soybean10%
Vine11%
Cereals21%
Cotton1%
Citrus3%
Sugarbeet1%
Rape2%
Potato8%
Pome fruit5%
Crop split (2004)
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Top 15 fungicide countries (2004 data)Top 15 fungicide countries (2004 data)
Country $USm Top 3 crop sectors ($USm)France : 1047 Cereals : 475 Vine : 230 F&V : 165
Brazil : 998 Soybean : 672 Cereals : 84 Cotton : 60
UK : 295 Cereals : 205 F&V : 31 Potato : 29
China : 230 F&V : 108 Rice:62 Cereals : 19
Spain : 183 F&V : 75 Vine : 65 Potato: 14
South Korea: 145 Rice : 72 F&V : 53 Potato : 8
Poland: 122 Cereals : 58 F&V: 31 Potato : 15
Netherlands: 110 Potato : 47 F&V : 19 Cereals : 18
Argentina: 101 Cereals: 28 F&V: 23 Soybean : 18
Colombia: 101 F&V: 27 Potato: 25 Rice: 23
Top 15 TOTAL: 5792 (80%) 4719 (64%)
Japan : 929 F&V : 460 Rice: 326 Potato: 38
USA : 629 F&V : 278 Potato: 59 Cereals : 40
Germany : 575 Cereals : 344 Rape : 78 Potato: 51
Italy : 327 Vine : 166 F&V : 106 Cereals : 14
Source: Phillips McDougall
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Leading fungicide moleculesLeading fungicide molecules
Main chemical groups $USm Leading active with sales > 100 $USm (2004 data)Triazoles : 1858 Tebuconazole: 575
Difenoconazole: 125Probenazole : 100
Azoxystrobin: 505Trifloxystrobin : 255
Mancozeb : 340
Copper : 225
Chlorothalonil : 240
Cyprodinil : 120
Metalaxyl: 190Carbendazim: 125Cymoxanil : 110
Epoxiconazole: 395Propiconazole: 120
Strobilurins : 1318 Pyraclostrobin: 295Kresoxym-methyl: 183
Dithiocarbamates: 527
Inorganic: 357 Sulphur : 120
Phtalonitrile : 355
Anylinopyrimidines : 192
All others: 2723 Fosetyl-al: 125Iprodione: 115Fluazinam : 100
More than 190 active ingredientsBut 20 of them makes > 60% of the total market
13 different chemical classes with different modes of actionsBut 3 of them represent 50% of sales
Source: Phillips McDougall
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Fungicides sales (2004)
Nufarm and the fungicides sector todayNufarm and the fungicides sector today
113
14
148
130
272
285
330
10
445
1640
1974
1810
0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500
Cheminova
FMC
Arysta
Nufarm
Sumitomo
Mahkteshim
Dupont
Monsanto
Dow
BASF
Syngenta
Bayer
'000 US$
Fungicides8%
Herbicides88%
Insecticides4%
Nufarm (2004)
75%
Source: Phillips McDougall
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Nufarm’s current regional statusNufarm’s current regional status
Region Country Status of fungicide business
UK
Germany Strong position in the cereal sector with Fluquinconazole business
Rest of region Portfolio dominated by specialty crops fungicides based on copper, with strong positions on crops like vine, vegetables, olives
USA Dominated by copper business and some specific products (Phostrol, antibiotics, tin based) for the specialty crop market
Brazil Agripec : diversified portfolio (tebuconazole, carbendazim, mancozeb, chlorothalonil), well positioned to take advantage of soybean rust
Americas
Rest of region Dominated by copper fungicides
Australia Very broad and diversified portfolio (full BASF portfolio + strong copper position)
Rest of region Dominated by copper fungicides
Asia Pacific
Europe, Africa, Middle East
Diversified portfolio (cereals, potatoes, turf…)Chlorothalonil : key business and presence (2nd player)Tebuconazole : since 2005Present on the potato market (mixtures cymoxanil+mancozeb)
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Opportunities for NufarmOpportunities for Nufarm
Excellent growth prospects
No impact of GM crops on this sector in foreseeable future
Less and less innovation (ie no breakthrough technology expected in near future): industry has to live with existing molecules
Resistance issues call for older, less specific chemistries
Development of new markets (ex: soybean rust) and regions (East Europe)
Significant actives coming off patent
Post patent strategies defined by major multinationals mean possible collaboration and/or acquisition of products
Food safety issues (mycotoxins, …) call for fungicide use
Health issues (obesity,..) calling for more consumption of fruits and veges
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Nufarm’s goals and strategyNufarm’s goals and strategy
To achieve substantial growth in fungicide sales by 2010Fungicides to represent 16% of global TO (vs 8% today)
Main strategic initiatives:Defend existing copper portfolio (key product for vine, F&V sectors)Develop positions on additional leading products:Focus on key accessible markets (Europe, USA, Latin America)Focus on leading crop sectors : cereals, soybean, specialty crops (vine, potato, fruits and veges)Anticipate growing markets (rape in Europe for biofuel, soybean rust in USA)Maintain/create value by offering original and differentiated mixtures and formulationsConsider alliances to develop existing or new products (ex : access to new Nissan compound for vine/potato sector in some key European countries)
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Key success factors for NufarmKey success factors for Nufarm
Secure access to relevant regulatory packages (ex Annex II packages in Europe) to guarantee freedom to operate
Manage cost of development vs internal resources
Reinforce fungicide “culture” within the organization
Manage reaction of big multinationals
Differentiate vs other generic players
Obtain favourable cost position to achieve financial targets
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Dale MellodyGroup General Manager – Global Marketing
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Insecticides
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Market overview
by product segment...
Source - Agronova
Crop protection market 2005 - Total USD$33.6billion(excludes Biotech)
Fungicides23%
Insecticides26%
Herbicides46%
Other - 5%
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Nufarm insecticide portfolioNufarm insecticide portfolio
Represents 4% of Nufarm revenue
Substantial opportunity for growth
Investment in Excel Crop Care India
Basic access to Imidacloprid (650M), Chlorpyrifos (290M),Endosulfan (140M), Profenofos (110M), Aluminium Phosphide (30M)
Major Insecticide target markets include:
US, BR, AR, IN, AU, FR, ES IT, ID, CO
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Insecticide Growth OpportunitiesInsecticide Growth Opportunities
Current Global products
Imidacloprid (650M)Lamdba Cyhalothin (LCH) (210M)
Technology
SuSCon ® Controlled release technologySorbie ® EC granule technologyFormulation development & combination products
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Drive for growth - imidaclopridDrive for growth - imidacloprid
US tech registration and 5 US product registrations submitted
Australia – submitted 7 end-use product registrations
Current registrations – Argentina, Ecuador, Paraguay, Uruguay, Indonesia
Pending registrations (6 months) – ANZ, Colombia, Chile
Global brand
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