the global agrochemical market trends by crop · the global agrochemical market trends by crop 11th...

Phillips McDougall | Agribusiness intelligence1

Phillips McDougall Vineyard Business CentrePathhead | MidlothianUK | EH37 5XP

T: 01875 [email protected]

The Global Agrochemical Market

Trends by Crop

11th China International Forum on Development of Pesticide Industry

Shanghai

February 28th 2017

2 Phillips McDougall | Agribusiness intelligence

YearCrop Protection Non-Crop Agrochemicals GM Seed Conventional Seed

($m) ($m) ($m) ($m)

2006 32508 5150 5855 14485

2007 35885 5365 7062 14648

2008 43187 5655 9150 16870

2009 40147 5860 10570 17185

2010 41291 5880 12870 17950

2011 46539 6290 15685 18810

2012 49549 6372 18495 19065

2013 54208 6481 20100 19325

2014 56655 6557 21054 19481

2015 51210 6322 19789 17441

2015 / 2014 -9.6% -3.6% -6.0% -10.5%

2016 Preliminary 49985 6535

2016 / 2015 -2.4% +3.4

(Ex-manufacturer level – average exchange rates - nominal US$)

Agrochemicals = $57,532 (-9.0%) Seed= $37,230 (-8.2%)

Market Performance 2015


Regional Crop Protection Market Development: 1990 – 2016P

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

18,000

19

90

19

91

19

92

19

93

19

94

19

95

19

96

19

97

19

98

19

99

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

20

15

20

16P

$m

NAFTA

Europe

Asia

LATAM

MEA


2015/2010 (% p.a.)Top Twenty Country Markets – Local Currency Growth

0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0 30.0 35.0

Australia

Korea

Japan

Thailand

USA

France

Vietnam

Italy

UK

Spain

Germany

Poland

Canada

India

China

Mexico

Russia

Romania

Brazil

Argentina


Change in Planted and Treated Areas 2013/2008 % p.a.

Planted Area Treated Area

Change % Herbicides Insecticides Fungicides

India Cereals -0.2 9.3

Cotton 4.5 16.5 24.7

Rice -0.7 16.8 20.8 25.1

Russia Cereals -2.0 8.2 13.7 7.9

Maize 6.2 15.9

Brazil Maize 1.4 10.8 -3.5 15.9

Soybean 5.4 22.0 74.0 10.8

China Rice 1.0 15.8 16.3 4.8

Maize 3.8 23.0 24.1

Cereals 0.0 22.0 9.8 -0.2

USA Maize 2.1 2.4 6.4

Soybean 0.3 12.0 -2.3

France Cereals -0.7 -3.2 -1.3 12.0


Agrochemical Market Development by Sector

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

18,000

20,000

22,000

24,000

26,0001

99

1

199

2

199

3

199

4

199

5

199

6

199

7

199

8

199

9

200

0

200

1

200

2

200

3

200

4

200

5

200

6

200

7

200

8

200

9

201

0

201

1

201

2

201

3

201

4

201

5

Herbicides

Others

GM Seed

Fungicides

Insecticides

$m


Agrochemical Company Market Shares 2015

>15% 15% - 5% 5% - 1.0% 1.0% - 0.5% <0.5%

Europe

Bayer BASF Sipcam Oxon Isagro

Syngenta Helm

Phyteurop

USA

Dow FMC Amvac

Monsanto Arysta LifeScience Gowan

DuPont Albaugh

Japan

Sumitomo Chemical Ishihara Hokko

Kumiai Agro Kanesho

Nihon Nohyaku SDS Biotech

Nippon Soda OAT

Nissan Nippon Kayaku

Mitsui Chemicals Kyoyu Agri

Other

Adama Nutrichem Rallis

Nufarm Sinochem Sinon

UPL Rotam Excel

Wynca Gharda

Red Sun


Company Agrochemical Sales: Nine Months 2016

* Monsanto results are for the three quarterly periods ending August

** Includes Seeds

*** Pro-forma

First Nine Months First Nine Months % Change

2015 2016 2016/15

Company Currency Local m $m Local m $m Local m $m

Syngenta $ 7851 7851 7280 7280 -7.3 -7.3

Bayer € 6667 7441 6414 7166 -3.8 -3.7

BASF € 4653 5193 4288 4792 -7.8 -7.7

Dow** $ 4778 4778 4458 4458 -6.7 -6.7

Monsanto $ 3509 3509 2694 2694 -23.2 -23.2

DuPont $ 2411 2411 2220 2220 -7.9 -7.9

Adama $ 2414 2414 2402 2402 -0.5 -0.5

FMC*** $ 1958 1958 1657 1657 -15.4 -15.4

Arysta $ 1354 1354 1323 1323 -2.3 -2.3

Amvac $ 181 181 193 193 +6.6 +6.6

Isagro € 114 128 110 123 -3.2 -3.9

Mean $ performance of these companies: -6.5%


Crop Protection Market Growth: Real Terms

-0.5

-3.0

-1.6

-0.5

2.2

4.33.7

2.1

0.1

-5.7

-1.0

-6.8

-5.0

-1.6

4.7

-2.5

-6.5

2.8

10.2

-1.5

0.2

7.1

8.9

9.9

5.4

0.0

-8.0

-6.0

-4.0

-2.0

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

19

90

19

91

19

92

19

93

19

94

19

95

19

96

19

97

19

98

19

99

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

20

15

Improved Crop PricesEurope, 5% set-asideLAM Recovery / Asian RustExcellent Ag year in the USA

EU ‘CAP’ Reform

GM CropsWeak Crop Commodity PricesReduced Support in EULAM / Asian Economies Weak

El Nino

Freedom to Farm

GATT

GM Crop ExpansionWeak Commodity PricesAdverse weatherEnergy PricesBrazilian economy

Lower Commodity PricesReduced oil pricesGlobal economic downturnLower glyphosate pricesDistributor inventory

High Crop PricesRising food demandHigher Glyphosate PricesCurrency movements

Strong Commodity PricesBiofuels / High oil pricesRecovery in Brazil

%


Agrochemical Market Development by Crop


USDA Global End Marketing Year Crop Stocks

0

50

100

150

200

250

30020

02/3

20

03/4

20

04/5

20

05/6

20

06/7

20

07/8

20

08/9

20

09/1

0

20

10/1

1

20

11/1

2

20

12/1

3

20

13/1

4

20

14/1

5

20

15/1

6 E

st

20

16/1

7 F

Tonnes m.

MaizeRice

Wheat

Soybean


Indicative Global Trade Commodity Prices: Annual Average

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

550

600

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

$/Ton

Soybean

Rice

Wheat

Maize

Cotton

($/100kg)


Crop Sectors 2015


Soybean Market By Sector 2015

Insecticides 18.3%

Fungicides 14.9%

Others 0.3%

GM Seed 44.9%

Total = $15,159 million

Herbicides 21.6%


Leading Soybean Agrochemicals 2015

Herbicides Insecticides Fungicides

1 Glyphosate Chlorantraniliprole Azoxystrobin

2 Flumioxazin Thiamethoxam Pyraclostrobin

3 Clethodim Flubendiamide Trifloxystrobin

4 Imazethapyr Lambda-cyhalothrin Prothioconazole

5 Paraquat Acephate Cyproconazole

6 Chlorimuron Imidacloprid Benzovindiflupyr

7 Diclosulam Fipronil Picoxystrobin

8 Fomesafen Methomyl Fluxapyroxad

9 2,4-D Teflubenzuron Epoxiconazole

10 Haloxyfop Chlorpyrifos Carbendazim

Major Factors

Roundup Ready acceptance Helicoverpa (Brazil) Asian soybean rust / resistance

Glyphosate resistant weeds Aphids (USA) Yield improvement (USA)

Key Markets

Brazil Brazil Brazil

USA Argentina USA


Cereal Market By Sector 2015


Herbicides 50.6%

Insecticides 9.0%

Fungicides 36.1%

Others 4.3%


Leading Cereals Agrochemicals 2015

Herbicides Fungicides

1 Glyphosate Prothioconazole

2 Pinoxaden Epoxiconazole

3 Flufenacet Fluxapyroxad

4 Mesosulfuron Tebuconazole

5 Clodinafop Propiconazole

6 2,4-D Azoxystrobin

7 Florasulam Pyraclostrobin

8 Fluroxypyr Bixafen

9 Pyroxsulam Cyproconazole

10 Fenoxaprop Metconazole

Major Factors

Resistance Resistance (Septoria/mildew)

Lack of new modes of action ‘Greening’ / yield enhancement

Key Markets

USA France

Canada Germany


Maize Market By Sector 2015


Herbicides 24.1%

Insecticides 7.2%

Others 0.2%

%%

GM Seed 64.7%

Fungicides 3.8%

%%


Leading Maize Agrochemicals 2015

Herbicides Insecticides

1 Glyphosate Thiamethoxam

2 Atrazine Clothianidin

3 Mesotrione Tefluthrin

4 Metolachlor Lambda-cyhalothrin

5 Acetochlor Chlorantraniliprole

6 Nicosulfuron Imidacloprid

7 Tembotrione Cypermethrin

8 Isoxaflutole Chlorpyrifos

9 Paraquat Fipronil

10 Thiencarbazone-Methyl Spinosad

Major Factors

Roundup Ready acceptance B.t. trait acceptance

Glyphosate resistant weeds Rootworm resistance (USA)

Key Markets

USA USA

China Brazil


Rice Market By Sector 2015


Herbicides 40.5%

Insecticides 35.4%

Fungicides 21.8%

%

Others 2.3%


Leading Rice Agrochemicals 2015

Herbicides Insecticides Fungicides

1 Cyhalofop-butyl Chlorpyrifos Tricyclazole

2 Penoxsulam Imidacloprid Azoxystrobin

3 Butachlor Chlorantraniliprole Difenoconazole

4 Pretilachlor Fipronil Isoprothiolane

5 Pyraclonil Cartap Mancozeb

6 Bispyribac-sodium Acephate Probenazole

7 Quinclorac Buprofezin Hexaconazole

8 Bensulfuron Carbofuran Kasugamycin

9 Bentazone Dinotefuran Orysastrobin

10 Propanil Thiamethoxam Propiconazole

Major Factors

‘One-shot’ formulations (Japan) Formulation/nursery box treatments Formulation/nursery box treatments

Many herbicides registered B.t. Rice? Technification of developing markets

Key Markets

Japan China Japan

China India China


Market Drivers


Agrochemical Patent Activity

Num

ber

of W

orld P

ate

nts

Important: Patents are categorised by priority date.

Patents are usually filed later than their

priority date.

We reassign patents as they are

released according to their priority

date.

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016


Agrochemical Active Ingredients in Development

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

a.i.s

in d

evel

op

men

t


Global GM Uptake 2015

India

Cotton – 97.5%

China

Cotton – 84.0%

Canada

Canola – 93.8%

Soybean – 97.9%

USA

Soybean – 96.0%

Maize – 93.0%

Cotton – 98.8%

Canola – 91.0%

Sugar beet – 98.2%

Argentina

Soybean – 99.0%

Maize – 94.0%

Brazil

Soybean – 93.2%

Maize – 85.5%

Adoption

Limited adoption

No adoption

Regional Split

NAFTA 45.1%

LATAM 42.9%

Asia 10.5%

Rest of World 1.5%

Total: 443.7 million acres (+0.4% over 2014)

Australia

Cotton – 99.0%

Canola – 22.0%

Spain

Maize – 31.5%


Global Wheat, Maize and Soybean Import Volumes

220

250

280

310

340

370

400

430

460

200

0/2

001

200

1/2

002

200

2/2

003

200

3/2

004

200

4/2

005

200

5/2

006

200

6/2

007

200

7/2

008

200

8/2

009

200

9/2

010

201

0/2

011

201

1/2

012

201

2/2

013

201

3/2

014

201

4/2

015

201

5/2

016

201

6/2

01

7F

Ton

nes

m.


US Ethanol Production

Total Production 2016 = 15.78 bn. gallons Corn use for EtOH 34.6%

900

1000

1100

1200

1300

1400

1500

1600

Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Gal

lon

s m

.

2012

20132011

2014

2015

2016


EU Common Agricultural Policy Reform 2015

Direct Payments

Rural Development

Basic Payment

Green Direct Payment

Additional Support

Permanent Grassland

Ecological Focus Areas

Crop Diversification

Improve the competitive position of EU agriculture

Restructuring and Modernisation

Young Farmer Start Up Support

Farm Advisory System

Crisis Reserve

Risk Management

Farms >15 Ha, 5% Focus Area

Farms >30 Ha, 3 different crops


Political Change

Key Factors

• 55 per cent of UK total income from

farming comes from CAP support.

• Future UK involvement in EU

regulatory system uncertain

• Exports to EU

• Uncertainty surrounding policy

United Kingdom: Brexit

Key Factors

• Uncertainty surrounding policy

• Future of EPA

• Potential easing of regulatory

framework?

• Pence previously voted for H.R.2646 - the

Farm Security and Rural Investment Act of

2002, increasing US farm subsidies.

USA: Trump Administration


30000

32000

34000

36000

38000

40000

42000

44000

46000

48000

50000

52000

54000

56000

58000

60000

$m

Crop Protection Market and Forecast in 2015 Dollar Terms

Market Forecast Real Growth

2015 to 2020

2.4% p.a.


Disclaimers

The information contained in this presentation constitutes our best judgement at the time of

publication, but is subject to change. Phillips McDougall do not accept any liability for any loss,

damage or any other accident arising from the use of the information in this presentation.

The information given in this presentation has been drawn from analyses and reviews presented in

the Phillips McDougall products AgriService, Seed Service, GM Seed Product Database, AMIS

Global and AgreWorld.

Phillips McDougall maintain a wide range of databases covering the crop protection and seed

industries, this presentation presents only headline information. Access to these databases can be

gained through subscription or consultancy. Our market research databases track product sales from

global market totals down to brand level sales by crop and country in both volume, value and area

treated terms.

For more information about these products please visit

www.phillipsmcdougall.com

Disclaimers

the global agrochemical market trends by crop · the global agrochemical market trends by crop 11th...

Documents