the german experience - oxford energy · geothermie biomasse sonstige kohlegas erdöl ... the...

The German Experience

Oxford Energy Conference

Oxford, 5.10.2015

Dr. Niels Ehlers

2 / 26 The German Experience / Oxford, 5.10.2015 / Dr. Niels Ehlers

Introduction 1

Contents

The German „Energiewende“ 2

Operational Challenges of RES 3


- Part of the ELIA Group

- Ensures the supply of electricity to over

18 million people in Germany

- System operator for Berlin, Hamburg,

Brandenburg, Mecklenburg-Western

Pomerania, Saxony, Saxony-Anhalt

and Thuringia

- Responsible for the operation,

maintenance and expansion of the

"Electricity Highways“

(220 kV and 380 kV)

The Transmission System Operator 50Hertz

Hamburg Berlin

INTRODUCTION 1


50Hertz‘ responsibility for the society includes secure system

operation, RES integration and market development

Transmission grid operator

Market facilitator

Trustee for RES processes

Responsible for the operation, maintenance and

expansion of ultra-high voltage lines and

connection of offshore wind farms

Catalyst of the electricity market development,

esp. in northern and central-eastern Europe

Responsible for the financial management of

the renewable energy processes

Source: 50Hertz

System operator Responsible for the control and balancing of

the transmission system, 24/7: frequency and

voltage control, congestion management

INTRODUCTION 1


50Hertz at a glance

5

Surface area

Total length of lines

Maximum load

Energy consumption

(based on electricity supplied to final

consumers in acc. with the EEG)

Installed capacity:

- of which RES

- of which Wind

Turnover

- Grid

2014

47,802 MW (~24%)

24,938 MW (~29%)

14,637 MW (~40%)

8.569 billion €

0.976 billion €

Workforce 893

9,855 km (~30%)

ca. 95 TWh

(~20%)

ca. 16 GW (~21%)

2010

35,000 MW (~35%)

15,130 MW (~29%)

11,260 MW (~40%)

5.6 billion €

0.6 billion €

650

109,360 km²

(~31%)

9,800 km (~28%)

ca. 98 TWh

(~20%)

ca. 17 GW (~20%)

109,360 km²

(~31%)

Pro

vis

ional data

, appro

ved v

alu

es w

ill b

e a

vaila

ble

on A

ugust

2015;

In b

rackets

: share

of

tota

l valu

e;

Sourc

e:

50H

ert

z a

s a

t 31/1

2/2

014

Sta

nd:

June 2

015

Sta

tus a

t June 2

015

INTRODUCTION 1


German Energy Transition „Energiewende“

Policy-driven structural changes in the German energy system:

What are the core elements of German „Energiewende“?

Greenhouse gas reduction: Future of coal generation questioned

Target: 40% CO2 reduction by 2020, 80-95% by 2050

Dynamic RES development (EEG 2.0)

Targets: 40-45% by 2025, 80% by 2050

Phase out of nuclear energy production by 2022

Grid extension to transport RES energy to demand centres in

Southern Germany

energy efficiency: electricity efficiency up by 50% by 2050

? ? ?

THE ENERGIEWENDE 2


Development of Renewable Energy Sources (RES)

in Germany

wind

photovoltaics

biomass

Area proportional to installed capacity

Source: 50Hertz, TenneT, Amprion, TransnetBW, Google Earth

2000 2006 2014

~ 30,000 plants ~ 221,000 plants > 1,600,000 plants

THE ENERGIEWENDE 2


Forecast: expansion of renewable energy in

Germany

Reference area corresponds to 100 MW Reference area corresponds to 100 MW

*) Scenario B of the 2025 GDP

2015 2025*

Wind Photovoltaic Biomass

THE ENERGIEWENDE 2


RES infeed in Germany in August 2015

We encountered overlapping infeed of wind and PV of up to 45 GW

THE ENERGIEWENDE 2

PV

Wind

40 GW

20 GW


0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

others

biomass

wind onshore

wind offshore

photovoltaics

RES in the 50Hertz control area - Forecast

Installed capacity in MW

As at 31/12/2014

2014 EEG forecast scenario „trend“

Forecast Current

situation

Installed capacity late 2014*

wind 14637 MW

photovoltaics 8237 MW

biomass 1792 MW

others 272 MW

Total 24938 MW

2100

8100

15491

27120

32650

37380

* As at July 2014, Source: 50Hertz

THE ENERGIEWENDE 2


RES as a niche

< 10% RES

RES as major player

10-40% RES

RES as dominant

player

> 40% RES

- Develop forecasting instruments to

improve their accuracy

- Develop grid infrastructure to meet

new transport demands (due to new

areas of generation) and as source of

flexibility

- Investigate ways to reduce “must-run”

capacities – RES to deliver ancillary

services (integration into control

power markets…)

- Implementation of real-time data

exchange and direct steering of RES

- Harmonised European approach to

RES policy

Rising share of RES leads to new requirements and

challenges

- Develop forecasting instruments to

improve their accuracy

- Develop grid infrastructure to meet

new transport demands (due to new

areas of generation) and as source of

flexibility

- Investigate ways to reduce “must-run”

capacities – RES to deliver ancillary

services (integration into control power

markets…)

- Implementation of real-time data

exchange and direct steering of RES

- Harmonised European approach to

RES policy

- Develop new market design

bringing together RES and

complementary conventional

power plants and storage

- Full steering of conventional

plants and RES in emergency

situations

- Substantially develop demand-

side response

- Enhance real-time cooperation

between TSOs and DSOs: data

exchange, review roles and

responsibilities

- Develop new business models

cross-linking electricity and other

energy sectors

THE ENERGIEWENDE 2


Introduction 1

Contents

The German „Energiewende“ 2

Operational Challenges of RES 3


High exports from Germany and

Scandinavia and high imports in South-

Eastern parts of Europe

High unscheduled power flows via

Poland an Czechia

In order to keep the system stable, the

German TSOs need to redispatch in

the scale of up to 10 GW.

The problem cannot be solved by

Germany alone, international redispatch

cooperation is necessary.

Germany contracted reserve power

plants in Austria, Switzerland, France

and Italy of more than 4 GW.

Current grid situation in Europe

Trade balances in Europe (Jul-Oct ‘15)

Red=

Export

Blue=

Import

Data source: transparency.entsoe.eu

OPERATIONAL CHALLENGES OF RES 3


Operational challenges from wind

Increasing

transmission

need

Conclusion: grid development is the key to the

success of the energy transition

High exports from

Northern Germany in

times of high wind

infeed

Grid congestion on

German North-South

lines and at the

Polish border

Insufficient

redispatch potential

within Germany

Redispatch costs in

2015 could

reach 500 mio. €



Stress on European neighbouring grids due to

unplanned load flows – 50Hertz counter-measures

Grid expansion

- reduces system-security-

relevant flows

- ensuring efficiency and

cost effectiveness =

challenge

- reduces system-security-

relevant flows

- investment required

- ensures system-security

in entire system

- enables integrated

European market

Redispatch

(„virtual PST“)

Phase shifters

(physical PST)

short-term middle-term long-term


?


Federal Requirement Plan for 2012 as legal

basis for grid development need

- Basis: 2012 Grid Development Plan

of the TSOs

- 36 projects confirmed

- 3 HVDC corridors

- Current Grid Development Plan

confirms Federal Requirement Plan

- The Federal Requirement Plan Act

is amended at least every three

years

Federal Requirement Plan Act

adopted by German Bundestag in

June 2013



Operational challenges from PV Solar eclipse 2015 March 20

Installed capacity in Europe:

80.000 MW PV – thereof in Germany 40.000 MW



Operational challenges from PV Solar eclipse 2015 March 20

simulated PV in-feed (worst case analysis)

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

00

:00

00

:45

01

:30

02

:15

03

:00

03

:45

04

:30

05

:15

06

:00

06

:45

07

:30

08

:15

09

:00

09

:45

10

:30

11

:15

12

:00

12

:45

13

:30

14

:15

15

:00

15

:45

16

:30

17

:15

18

:00

18

:45

19

:30

20

:15

21

:00

21

:45

22

:30

23

:15

MW

Wolkenlos Orig. Wolkenlos SoFi Bedeckt Orig. Bedeckt SoFi

19,2

GW

12,6

GW

German TSO counted on market mechanisms for basic balancing

Installed PV-capacity

OPERATIONAL CHALLENGES OF WIND AND PV 2


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80 sonstigeEEGBiomüll

WindOnshoreWindOffshoreSolar

PSW-SpeicherLaufwasser

PSW

Geothermie

Biomasse

sonstige

Kohlegas

Erdöl

Erdgas

Pumped storage and hard coal power plants in Germany, Switzerland and

Austria supplied the backup capacity.

Nuclear and lignite units could remain in baseload operation.

The 15-min market performed very well to balance the system.

System operation on March 20th 2015 Power plant operation

GW

Quelle: transparency.entsoe.net



Must-run of conventional generation

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18EnWG §13.2

PV

Wind

Rostock

SchwarzePumpe

Schkopau

Jaenschwalde

Lippendorf

Boxberg

Negative RL

Coal power plants

Wind

Must-Run

For better integration of RES into the system, must-run generation must

be reduced. Ancillary services must be provided by RES to run the

system stable. (balancing, reactive power, black-start, fault-detection….)


GW


Balancing from RES

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

11:05 11:45 12:25Time

MW

Po

we

r

Demonstration-Test - mFRR Wind power plants are technically capable to provide

balacing energy. 50Hertz is currently involved in

pilot projects in Germany to test this within the

German market framework.

Current challenges are the definition of the baseline

and the design of the balancing market

(daily tendering, hourly products….)



Special challenge: own generation to avoid

surcharges

Photovoltaic

module

Battery

Storage

„Savings“

Average electricity price for households

(3.500 kWh/a)

Alternative:

Own generation


Own generation can have positive effects on innovation,

but negative distributive impacts on socialized costs must be avoided.


Evaluation of „Energiewende“

Key successes

Significant roll-out of RES

Key failures

Significant contributions to cost

reductions for solar and wind globally

Focus mainly on installed capacity

rather than on used energy

High costs for consumers since feed-in

tariffs were not reduced with same

speed as solar panel prices dropped

No policy framework yet for the next

phase (RES share > 25%):

energy market reform needed that takes

into account dominance of wind and solar

Limited success of Combined Heat and

Power (CHP)

Slow development of transmission and

distribution network

Broad economic participation

Sustained high level of system security

CONCLUSION 4


Challenges of „Energiewende“

Costs How to share costs

(>30 bln. €/a) within society?

Market design How to find an appropriate

balance between price-based

coordination and investment

certainty?

Grid development How to speed up and raise

acceptance?

Conventional power

plants How to accompany restructuring

in power industry?

European

energy policy

How to coordinate

the „Energiewende“

with neighbouring

countries?

Combined Heat

and Power

(CHP) How much is

needed/useful?

RES integration How to increase flexibility of

producers and consumers?

CONCLUSION 4

A long road

ahead…

Many thanks for your attention

Oxford, 5.10.2015

Dr. Niels Ehlers

50Hertz Transmission GmbH

Eichenstraße 3A

12435 Berlin

+49 30 - 5150 - 4576

[email protected]

www.50Hertz.com

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