the future of social media

Experience. Capability. Technology bwired.com.au

Social Media: Where is it headed?

David WarwickThe Internet Show – Melbourne

1 May 2012

@drwarwick

Experience. Capability. Technology bwired.com.auExperience. Capability. Technology bwired.com.au

Structure and HistoryThe Future – Forces and Trends

Source: http://socialproofing.com.au/future-tense-social-media/

Prediction The future will be the result of forces and trends operating today …


Structure and HistoryForces

ProliferationThe number of platforms, options and function grows (hype cycle)

AdoptionMore people adopt social media (adoption curve)

CommercializationMarket share gives way to classic financial drivers (business maturity)

ConvergenceSilos of innovation are combined for greater innovation (product iteration)

RationalizationWinners and losers are determined and market settles (economics of scale)

GovernanceEstablished power-base controls emerging risk (law and government – catch up)

Invention Further discovery and innovation creates unforeseen disruption


Structure and HistoryProliferation

Source: Knowem … http://socialmediatoday.com/briansolis/109255/online-reputation-and-brand-management-starts-identity

Initiating ForcePlayers enter emerging space en masse.

EffectComplexity of market requires decisions on ‘where to play’ and ‘where to spend’.

ActionMarket analysis and single point of management are required by both businesses and individuals.

OutcomePublishing, listening, measuring and management applications appear and have their own proliferation cycle!


Structure and HistoryAdoption

Source: Facebook

Initiating Force The late majority and laggards enter space and ‘use-cells’ form.

Effect All market segments are present and ‘segmentation by innovation’ is lost.

Action Data related to connections needs to exist outside of individual platforms.

Outcome Personal ‘contact books’ and integrated social CRM for business increase in use.


Structure and HistoryCommercialization

Source: http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-205_162-57367614/facebook-poised-for-ipo/

Initiating ForceSeed funding ends, returns demanded.

EffectAll social media platforms must eventually find a way to make money.

ActionAdvertising proliferates, however other shifts in trading data, preference, or utility for payment are embraced.

OutcomeCommercial forces change the flavour and in some cases the essence of key platforms. Low-socioeconomic groups effectively disenfranchised. Key influencers rewarded.


Structure and HistoryConvergence

Source: http://www.jennamcwilliams.com/tag/convergence-culture/

Initiating ForceInnovation from combining advancements.

EffectGreater utility, ubiquity and uptake.

ActionMedia edges are blurred (Press, TV, Radio, Internet, Point-of-Sale, Education, Mobile).

OutcomeSocial media covers the ‘four-screen world’(mobile, PC, entertainment, environment).Linking technology is about seamless transition, shared data and immersive experience (far beyond QR codes, geo-location and image recognition).


Structure and HistoryRationalization

Source: http://www.orangeinks.com/technology/the-real-evolution-of-social-networks-pic/

Initiating Force There will be war and emerging from the clash will be a winner (winners).

Effect Convergence, commercial models and adoption trends will reduce proliferation.

Action Some platforms will merge, some will fail and someone will buy the winner (s).

Outcome Follow your audience and your strategy – not the platform!


Structure and HistoryGovernance

Source: http://www.openculture.com/2008/06/george_orwells_1984_download_free_audio_book_version.html

Initiating ForceWhere is your power? The status quo or the future?

EffectGovernments, Corporations and a host of interest groups wish to ‘bend’ social forces (online or offline) for their agenda (benevolent or malevolent).

ActionLegislation, monitoring, filtering, isolation, propaganda, campaigning and taxing … these are all forces that will have an impact on Social Media and the online world.

OutcomeDifferent groups will get different outcomes. Although Social Media will change the world, it will also be changed and adapt to many existing forces and issues.


Structure and HistoryInvention

http://www.businessinsider.com/future-of-social-media-2011-11#

Initiating ForcePeople making change …

Jeffrey Zeldman …

- Ubiquitous

- Monolithic

- Smarter

-Invisible


Structure and HistoryPreparing for the FUTURE

Proliferation (there are more platforms than demographic groups or business strategies)Strategy (audience and message) guide activity using monitoring technology.

Adoption (all market segments are present and there is no remaining early adopter advantage)Clusters need to be determined and tracked. Social or integrated CRM is the key.

Commercialization (dominant platforms increasing function according to profit drivers)Pay for priority, utility and influence. Micro and SM payment functionality matures.

Convergence (network speed, shared data, all devices, most locations are integrated) Preferences and personal brand are key to almost ubiquitous engagement. ID integrity.

Rationalization (“complexity on the other side of simplicity” … )Learn what works, remain flexible and embrace the outcome that delivers. Metrics!

Governance (control and monitoring will increase proportional with value creation and adoption)Develop your own objective, policy and monitoring approach. Gain Influence!

Invention (nothing is more certain than change) Other forces will make the future unpredictable. Gain Knowledge! Keep Flexibility!


Structure and HistoryInfluence | Knowledge | Flexibility

Nearly universal literacy is a defining characteristic of modern civilization.

Nearly universal authorshipwill shape tomorrow's!

Denis Pelli & Charles BigelowA Writing Revolutionhttp://seedmagazine.com/


Structure and HistoryGrowth in authorship

People are trading privacy for influence!

Source: Denis Pelli & Charles Bigelow … http://seedmagazine.com/

TrendsBooks: x 10 per century for 6 centuries | New media: x 10 per year for 6 years


Structure and HistoryMonitoring – ‘Listening Post’ Model (control and learning)


Structure and HistoryInvention


ENDDavid Warwick

Director of Technology and Services

[email protected]: 0411 411 555P: 1300 780 566

@drwarwickMay 2012

the future of social media

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