The future of science, food regulation and dealing with the fear

AGRICULTURE AND FOOD

Martin Cole | Deputy Director of Agriculture and Food

5th March 2019

Outline

•Global food megatrends and food safety

• Emerging science and impact on food regulation

• Food, the consumer and managing the fear

• Roadmap towards modernisation

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A LESS PREDICTABLE PLANET

HEALTH ON THE MIND

CHOOSEY CUSTOMERS

SMARTER FOOD CHAINS

ONE WORLD

Food and Agribusiness Megatrends

Source(s): CSIRO Futures 2017 Food and Agribusiness A Roadmap for unlocking value-adding growth opportunities for Australia

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So Where Do We Focus For Future Growth?

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CSIRO Futures 2017. Food and Agribusiness: A Roadmap unlocking growth opportunities for Australia

Traceability and provenance

Food safety and biosecurity

Market intelligence and

access

ENABLER

• Blockchain

• DNA-testing

• Isotope analysis

• Barcoding and image recognition technologies

• Hybrid high pressure processing

• Advanced packaging

• Microwave assisted thermal sterilisation

• Blockchain and bio-sensing

• Sensors and data analytics

• Artificial Intelligence

• E-commerce for perishable products

EXAMPLE S&T SOLUTIONS

Source(s): CSIRO Futures 2017 Food and Agribusiness A Roadmap for unlocking value-adding growth opportunities for Australia

Enablers and the role for technology

Food Safety: A Global Public Health Issue

• 31 foodborne hazards resulted in 33 million DALYS (Disability Adjusted Life Years) in 2010

– Shows considerable impact of contaminated food

• WHO (2012) – key hazards & risk factors:

– Malaria: 55 million DALYs

– Tuberculosis: 44 million DALYs

– (HIV/AIDS: 92 million DALYs)

Burden of FBD at 33 million DALYsof similar magnitude to at least 2 of Africa’s biggest

infectious diseases

Ministerial level

Lucia Anelich

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7

Jane McGrath "10 Costly Food Recalls" 12 March 2009.HowStuffWorks.com. <http://money.howstuffworks.com/10-food-recalls.htm> 20 November 2016

1992 E.coli Hamburgers 100s cases, 4 deaths >$160 million

1996 E.coli Apple juice 10s cases 1 death >$12 million

1998 Listeria sliced meats 100s cases, 21 deaths >$100 million

2006 E.coli Spinach, 100s cases 3 deaths, $350 million

2007 Salmonella peanut butter 600 cases, no deaths $133 million

2007 Melamine pet foods 14 pet deaths >$74 million

Salmonella nottomatoes, $250 million

Salmonella peanutproducts

600 cases, 9 deaths$70 million

Food Safety a top concern to Chinese Public 2015

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Source(s):USCBC 2016 Food Safety in China; Pew Research Center 2015 China Report

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Food Safety Scares have led to major reforms at national and international levels

•BSE, dioxin, EFSA, EU•Fresh produce, Peanut Butter, botulism, FSMA, US•Contaminated beef, slice meats, Safe Food for Canadians, Canada•Fake foods, microbial and chemical contamination, FSL, China

New Risk Management Framework, ICMSF/CODEX

Emergence of Private Standards

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Production & Primary Handling Processing & Packaging Distribution & Shelf-life

Minimizing initial levels Reducing

levels

Minimizing an increase in levels

Minimum Standards

Water managementChoice of fertilizerSanitation of equipmentRapid coolingHygiene of personnelMonitoring

Processing & Washing stepsEnvironmental surveillanceMonitoring

Temperature managementChoice of storage atmosphereShelf-lifeMonitoring

Risk-based use of preventative controls in the production chain of fresh produce

Good Agricultural Practice (GAPs)Good Manufacturing Practice (GMPs)Hazard Analysis Critical Control (HACCP)Performance StandardsGuidelines/Regulations

Testimony before the US House of Representatives

"Food and Drug Administration Globalization Act of 2009”, March 11, 2009 10

The Omics Revolution and Food Safety R&D

Whole Cell Genomics

TranscriptomicsProteomics Metabolomics

Epigenetics

Metagenomics

Detection of pathogens in mixed cultures

Subtyping; characterization of new and emerging pathogens and transmission routes

Situation-specific phenotypic traits

Characterising response to stress

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Food Safety:In a State of TransformationPrepared by Cornerstone Capital Group for theInvestor Responsibility Research Center Institute July 2016

Ma

xim

um

Sp

ecif

ic G

row

th R

ate

(h-1

)

Isolate

Behavior and survival: • growth at low temperature

Genomics and Listeria monocytogenes survival

Genomics and informatics: identify genes responsible

More targeted controls

0

100

200

300

3 1 204 121 155 2 9 324 122 120 4 7

Nu

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f is

ola

tes

Genotype No.

Australia

Ecology: Australian and global genotypes

Unique Australian genotypes

Epidemiology of genotypes: • clinical vs food sources• not all genotypes clinically relevant• genotypes from meat and fruit overlap with clinical more than dairy

Evidence based regulationIdentify risks

F&N Science and Impact Review 2015_Feeding Megacities | Narelle Fegan14

|(Narelle Fegan and CSIRO Food Safety team)

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http://www.perkinelmer.com/catalog/product/id/lx100952-a

(John DeVries, Medallion Labs, NCFST Annual Meeting 2010)

Enhanced analytical techniques and screening for chemical contaminants

New Assessment techniques for chemicalcontaminants

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Intervention studies, human biomarkers and Acrylamide

Re-assessment based on epidemiology

Gerhard Eisenbrand

Foods for 2025 ?

Various sources, Google Images

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Sustainability – Initiatives & Need

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Source(s): CB Insights 2018 The Future Of Protein I www.un.org I WRI 2016 Shifting Diets for a Sustainable Food Future

The Food Gap

Taking into account a growing population and shifting diets, the world will need to produce 69% more food calories in 2050 than we did in 2006.

Alternative Proteins Landscape

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Source(s): CB Insights 2018 The Future of Protein

• These start-ups are shifting away from animal-based protein sources to develop everything from plant-based burgers to dairy-free cheeses to imitation shrimp, and more.

• Meat and dairy substitutes have seen especially strong momentum in this space

• Startups are disrupting the meat production value chain through the development of high-tech protein products —threatening established players like Tyson, which is an aggressive participant in the alternative protein movement.

• Meat substitute start-ups are not only competing with prepared and frozen meats, but are also creating alternative snacks.

New Food Processing Technologies

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Microwave

Pulsed Electric Fields

High Pressure

Cool Plasma

Ultrasonics/

Megasonics

Juices and

beverages

13%

Vegetable

products

34%

Meat products

30%

Seafood and

fish

14%

Other products

9%

Source: Andrew Gibb, Coldpress

High Pressure Technology going mainstream

New Breeding Technologies

(Allan Green)

N2NH3

Transformative GM Technologies

Pest-resistant legumes Biofortified foods

Novel oils Fixing Heterosisthrough ApomixisBroad-spectrum

Disease Resistance

Nitrogen-Fixing Plants

Boosting photosynthesis

(John Manners)

Top trends in digital transformation infood and agriculture sector

• Harmonised food safety information

• Big data analytics

• Rapid detection methods

• Advanced food safety software

• Emerging food safety technological innovations

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(Frost and Sulivan)

(I)IoT – (Industrial) Internet of Things

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Source(s): F&S 2017 IIoT in Agriculture I Inductive Automation (https://inductiveautomation.com/what-is-iiot)

IoT is a network of intelligent computers, devices, and objects that collect and share huge amounts of data.

The collected data is sent to a central Cloud-based service where it is aggregated with other data and

then shared with end users in a helpful way.

Supply chain integrity

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Source(s): F&S 2017 IIoT In Agriculture I F&S 2018 Traceable Value Chains and Authentication in the APAC Food Industry - Forecast to 2023 I UN https://sustainabledevelopment.un.org/sdgs

Ag

Tech

Trac

eab

le

Val

ue

Ch

ain

Farm to Fork – Requires integrating Ag Tech and Traceable Value Chain solutions through IoT.

“On-farm” “Post-harvest”

CSIRO’s Supply Chain Integrity Digital Plus Domain Platform

BIOLOGICALPROVENANCE

DIGITAL TRACEABILITY

EVENT & PROCESSVERIFICATION

REGULATORYAUTOMATION

PRIVACY/TRUSTMANAGEMENT

… being able to prove the origin of biological product based on nuclear and elements . Eg. this is not Australian meat.

National Impact• Strong proof of origin• Fraud prevention & verification• Aust Brand value reinforcement

Enabling Science• Nuclear & molecular profiles• Isotopic & element (soil/water)

… connecting physical and digital products. Eg. identifiers to enable digital traceability.

National Impact• Industry efficiency gains• Improved competitiveness• Product differentiation • Decommoditisation

Enabling Science• Cyberphysical – IoT/signaling• Optics/patterns/ML & AI

…. making global standards for trade (GS1-EPCIS) more accessible and trustworthy

National Impact• Reduce complexity of business• Improved industry efficiency • More competitive trade partner

Enabling Science• Cryptographic engineering• Blockchain and process oriented

dependability

…. automated compliance linking digital laws/rules with process events.

National Impact• Reduced regulatory burden• Cost savings and efficiency• Ease of doing business• Industry competitiveness

Enabling Science• Legal informatics/semantics• AI and ML

… protecting data disclosures –enabling people/business to share data insight without releasing sensitive information.

National Impact• Reduced privacy concerns• Improved access to industry

data• Enhanced trust in government

Enabling Science• Partial homomorphic

encryption• AI/ML

Supply Chain Integrity Challenge - Impact Analysis and Strategy (CSIRO, Data61)

thumpandwhip.com

Daily Mail.co.uk

Food Safety & Outrage

http://www.welt.de/vermischtes/weltgeschehen/article13467030/An-der-5800-Euro-Ampulle-haengt-die-Hoffnung.html

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Social media and the food consumer

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(Andreas Duenser and team)

Consumer sentiment before & after“needles in strawberries”

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Before During

Shortly after After

(Andreas Duenser and team)

The Public, Science and Technology

(Google Images)

Learning from others, US

“...the most sweeping reform of ourfood safety laws in more than 70 years...” – FDA

• Involves creation of a new food safety system

• Broad prevention mandate and accountability

• New system of import oversight

• Emphasizes partnerships

• Emphasizes farm-to-table responsibility

• Developed through broad coalition

Food Safety Modernization Act

(Katie Swanson, ICMSF)

Learning from others, NZ

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(Nigel French, NZFSSRC)

National Food Safety in transition

• Foodborne illness reduction strategy

•National traceability project

• Food export task force

• Food safety ‘modernisation’

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http://www.health.gov.au/internet/fr/publishing.nsf/Content/3139DD4B7DF3E23ACA25822F0004BFDD/$File/AusFIRS18-22CD.pdf

Stage 1: Basic interoperability standards

Towards a National Food Data Roadmap

Enhancing Australia’s world-class agricultural traceability systems| CSIRO\Data6135 |

• Unlocking public/private data• Harmonizing data across

sectors & value chain.• Multi-purpose, QA, Regtech,

traceability, biosecurity• Links to other industry

sectors, banks, insurance

For example …..

Stage 1: Basic interoperability standards

Towards a National Food Data Roadmap

Enhancing Australia’s world-class agricultural traceability systems| CSIRO\Data6136 |

• Enhanced access and sharing of sensitive data through privacy preserving techniques

• Whole genome sequencing of foodborne pathogens fingerprinting

• Data sharing results in improvement in food safety

• Management of litigation risk to industry and market access for international food trade

For example …..

Stage 2: Sensitive & private data

Stage 1: Basic interoperability standards

Towards a National Food Data Roadmap

Enhancing Australia’s world-class agricultural traceability systems| CSIRO\Data6137 |

• Development of shared digital infrastructures (public/private) creates new innovations and markets

• Supports SMEs seeking export• Industry monitoring systems

supporting change in industry• Better management of toxic

data risks

For example …..

Stage 2: Sensitive & private data

Stage 3: Smart digital infrastructure

Stage 1: Basic interoperability standards

Towards a National Food Data Roadmap

Enhancing Australia’s world-class agricultural traceability systems| CSIRO\Data6138 |

• Moving from inspection to verification

• Efficient food export processes and unlocking of new markets

• Linking physical world with computer based systems

• Proactive rather than reactive systems in food recall scenarios

For example …..

Stage 2: Sensitive & private data

Stage 3: Smart digital infrastructure

Stage 4: Continuous compliance

Key elements to consider

• ‘one health’ surveillance and monitoring/early warning system

• co-ordinated food safety research program involving government, academia and industry collaboration

• food data road map for digital transformation

• food traceability framework

• collaborative regulatory review and modernisation program

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A national……

Dr Martin ColeDeputy Director of Agriculture and Food

t +61 2 9490 8465E Martin.Cole@csiro.auw www.csiro.au

AGRICULTURE AND FOOD

Thanks to:Many contributors from CSIRO & ICMSF