the four horsemen of sustainability: i=pat+g
TRANSCRIPT
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International Institute for Sustainability
The Four Horsemen of Sustainability: I=PAT+G
Charles L. Redman, Director
International Institute for Sustainability
Notre Dame 1924
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International Institute for Sustainability
The Four Horsemen of the Apocalypse: I=PAT+G
Charles L. Redman, Director
International Institute for Sustainability
A. Durer 1498
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International Institute for Sustainability
Pathway for Resilience Alliance
• How can we, as members of the Resilience Alliance, make a difference?
• Can we move RA ideas to the center of disciplinary and interdisciplinary discourse?
• Can we focus our efforts on those that are achievable and likely to have a great impact?
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International Institute for Sustainability
Two Sides of Every Coin
• It is difficult to get outside of ourselves(sometimes we confuse what we want to
be with what we argue must occur)
• The trapdoor nature of perception and interpretation of the empirical world
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International Institute for Sustainability
My Hypothesis
• Current thinking focuses on either:Radical changes to the established orderGradual, cumulative changes to the way we
do things
• Our efforts may be most effective if directed at subtle changes in communication and action that lead to tipping points.
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International Institute for Sustainability
Erhlich and Holdren
I=PAT+GI=ImpactP=PopulationA=AffluenceT=TechnologyG=Governance
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International Institute for Sustainability
Population
• Slow population growth or reduce population(demographic transition may be doing this,
however unevenly)
• Good trends: empowering women and family planning (contrary to US govt)
• Bad/good trends: smaller family size, greater investment in children, greater environment impact per capita
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International Institute for Sustainability
Affluence 1
• Can we reduce and equalize resource use? What would be lost, even if it could be accomplished?
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International Institute for Sustainability
Affluence 2
• What role has “overconsumption” played historically?
• Redistribution of accumulated wealth
• Conveyed perception of power/status via monumentality, extravagance, and elaborate performance
• Legitimized transference of power/status
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International Institute for Sustainability
Technology
• Maximize information flow(Does it help? At what point do we enter gridlock?)
• Reduce energy use, rely on renewable sources, or shift back to human energy?
• How to prevent new technologies from creating unintended negative consequences?
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International Institute for Sustainability
Governance 1
• How can we avoid creating unintended constraints, especially those that limit future options?
• How can we create institutions that learn from experience and anticipate changing conditions?
• How can we encourage reciprocal obligations and enrich positive normative values?
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International Institute for Sustainability
Governance 2
• How can we maintain identity and local values in the face of globalizing economic forces?
• How can we avoid the tragedy of the commons (especially vis-à-vis our environmental-resource base)?
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International Institute for Sustainability
Pathway Choices
1. Should we maximize diversity, flexibility, and redundancy in the system?
2. Can we do away with social/economic hierarchies?
3. Should we empower all stakeholders in the decisionmaking? Equally?
4. Will “thinking globally, acting locally” really solve our problems? Do local solutions really scale-up?
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…reconciling society’s developmental goals with the planet’s environmental limits over the long term.
NRC 1999