The Food-Energy-Water Nexus

Useful Concept at the Science-Policy Interface?

Claudia Ringler, Hartwig Kremer and Cheikh Mbow

UNEA Science Policy Interface, May 19-20

Trends underlying the nexus & interlinkages

Growing demand for more water intensive calories (meats/fruits and vegetables) surpasses demand for R&T and

cereals (SSP2, NoCC)20

10 =

1.0

Source: IFPRI, IMPACT version 3.2, September 2015

Maximum temperature (°C) Annual precipitation (mm)

Climate change impacts affect yields adversely -> increased water and energy resources by 2050 compared to NoCCThe case of maize yields using HadGEM (RCP8.5), DSSAT, and IMPACT (SSP2)

Change in rainfed maize yields before economic adjustments

Change in rainfed maize yields after economic adjustments

Source: IFPRI, IMPACT version 3.2, November 2015

The growth rate of carbon emissions more than halves…Positive signs: Decoupling of energy from emissions growth

BP 2016 Energy Outlook

GDP growth Emissions growth

Energy production by source: Seems like Business as Usual, but..

in millions of tons of oil equivalent

02,0004,0006,0008,000

10,00012,00014,00016,00018,00020,000

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2014 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

Oil Natural Gas Coal Nuclear Hydroelectricity Biofuels Wind/Sol./Oth. Ren.BP 2016 Energy Outlook

Projected annual growth over 2014-35 suggests significant changes

BP 2016 Energy Outlook0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0

Coal

Oil

Natural Gas

Hydroelectricity

Nuclear

Biofuels

Wind/Solar/Oth. Ren.

Growth per year

8

Water-scarce regions account for 36% of global population (2.5 Bn), 9.4 trillion USD (22%) of global GDP, and 39% of global grain production How many people live in

water short areas?

How much GDP is generated in water scarce regions?

> 50

< 2020 - 3030 - 4040 - 50

No data

> 40%

20 - 40%

0 - 20%

2010

3618

46

> 40%

0 - 20%

1922

2010

20 - 40%

59

2010

2.5 Bn people

9.4 trillion USD2

1 >40% water stress2 Year 2000 prices

Source: IFPRI 2011

9

Under BAU, 52% of population, 45% of GDP and 49% of cereals will be produced in regions at risk due to water stress by 2050

> 40%

20 - 40%

0 - 20%

2050

52

1632

2010

3618

46

> 40%20 - 40%

0 - 20%

2050

45

25

30

2010

2219

59

Business as usual (BAU) water productivity, medium growth, 2050

1 >40% water stress2 Year 2000 prices

How many people live in water short areas?

How much GDP is generated in water scarce regions?

▪ 4.7 Bn people, 70% of 2010 pop.

▪ Increase by 90% compared to 2010

▪ 63 trillion USD2 1.5 x 2010 total GDP

▪ Increase by 570% compared to 2010

> 50

30 - 4040 - 50< 20

20 - 30

No data

Source: IFPRI 2011

10

Cheap individual pumping technology & energy access have led to widespread groundwater depletion (Map of groundwater depletion supporting cereals, 2005)

Source: Villholdt et al. Under Review

7% of total cerealproduction

irrigated with depleting

groundwater

11

Seed bed preparation

4%

Sowing17%

Irrigation48%

Fertilizers23%

Pesticides5%

Harvesting3%

Sowing38%

Irrigation35%

Pesticides17%

Harvesting10%

CHART TITLE

Total: 7787 kwh/ha Source: S. Khan et al. 2009

Total: 2135 kwh/ha

Rice – Pump Irrigation, Australia Barley – Pump Irrigation, Australia

Energy inputs generally largest for pumped irrigated systems, but wide variations..

Entry points for a science-policy interface

The Nexus has the Attention of Government

“Pakistan Vision 2025 recognizes that sufficient, reliable, clean and cost-effective availability of energy, water and food – for now and the future –is indispensable in ensuring sustainable economic growth and development. These key sectors have suffered historically from severe failings of integrated policy and execution” (Planning Commission, 2014, p. 59, emphasis added)

The Government of the UK recently released a call for tender of a water-energy-foodmapping exercise for India as part of its UK-India scienceand innovation collaboration.

..of the Private Sector, NGOs and Industry Associations

Source: WEF 2016.

The SDGs can only be achieved if the Nexus is considered

But there are complexities (Example: entry point SDG2)

End Hunger

Food Security & Nutrition

Sustainable Agriculture

SDG2

SDG6: Water and Sanitation

SDG7: Access to sust. energy

SDG13: Climate Change

SDG15: Sustainable use of Ecosystems

SDG14: Sustainable use of Oceans

SDG3: Healthy Lives

SDG1: End poverty

SDG4: Education

SDG5: Gender equality

SDG10: Reduce Inequality

SDG12: Sust Prod and Consumption

Blue 1-way arrows generally support SDG2Red 2-way arrows might hinder full achievement of SDG2

Entry points for policymakers1. Getting the policy framework right

Secure rights to land and water to support responsible use of natural resources

Phase out subsidies for water, energy and agriculture Create a macroeconomic enabling framework Ensure basic infrastructure

Source: von Grebmer et al. 2012

Entry points for policymakers2. Put nexus strategies in place National food and nutrition security strategies that take account of

water, energy, land resource use and environmental impacts Agricultural strategies that focus R&D investments on yield

improvements that use less water and energy resources National energy security strategies that assess water and climatic

futures as part of energy security strategies Monitor and evaluate strategies in all three sectors for

environmental impacts and resource conservation

Source: von Grebmer et al. 2012

Entry points for policymakers3. Address the drivers of the growing resource scarcity Lower inequality, more sustainable lifestyles Address climate change Value natural resources and the environment Address demographic changes

Source: von Grebmer et al. 2012

Entry points for scientists1. Describe complexity and transform into policy-relevant results2. Assess costs of in-action across the Nexus3. Assess feedbacks and solutions; including beyond Food, Energy and

Water: Environment, Climate, Land and more4. Identify relevant indicators that can be monitored to show gains from

integrated assessments5. Obvious areas of analysis: Closing the nutrient cycle/ wastewater reuse;

Climate change and the nexus; impact of renewables on the nexus; Water pollution management; Groundwater management; Postharvest food losses; Agricultural technologies; Green & grey infrastructure; Basin water resource assessments; Governance mechanism for the nexus; nanotechnologies; and more.

Entry points for scientists: Agricultural technologies• Breeding: Drought/Heat/and other abiotic, but also biotic stress

tolerance; C4 rice • Increased Nutrient Use Efficiency through plant breeding or slow-release

fertilizers• Precision Agriculture (continued potential to reduce water and energy

use, even in already highly mechanized monocultures of industrialized countries)

• Integrated Soil Fertility management in parts of Sub-Saharan Africa• Alternative Wetting and Drying for irrigated rice in parts of Asia• Advanced irrigation technologies and enhanced irrigation governance

Why do we need to act now? Ex 1: India’s Sunshine Crop

• India’s Government has been providing subsidies to solar pumps threatening the country’s already fragile groundwater resources

• CGIAR WLE and CCAFS are assessing options for farmers to sell electricity back to overwhelmed energy utilities rather than pumping groundwater for low-value crops (SPaRC: Solar Power as a Remunerative Crop).

Why do we need to act now? Ex 2: Watershed management at the nexus urgent to meet urban water needs, while maintaining food and energy security

• Africa’s first water fund in Kenya (the Nairobi Water Fund) aims to provide a sustained water supply to more than nine million people and generate US$21.5 m in long-term benefits to Kenyan citizens, cutting costs for hydropower and clean water, while addressing water flow and soil erosion issues in the Upper Tana River basin. Consortium of private sectors/NGOs and research organizations, including CGIAR WLE

Why do we need to act now? Ex 3: Addressing water pollution requires nexus solutions

• Water pollution loadings are high and increasing at alarming rates, particularly in Asia, but also Africa

• Impacts on health and the environment are tremendous

• Solutions span the breadth of the nexus: Nitrogen use efficiency in fertilizer; green infrastructure for water treatment; closing the nutrient cycle and many more

2050 CSIRO-medium 2050 MIROC-medium

BOD 1 in 5 people or 1,589 million

1 in 6 people or 1,372 million

N 1 in 3 people or 2,645 million

1 in 4 people or 2,311 million

P 1 in 3 people or 2,948 million

1 in 3 people or 2,522 million

Nitrogen loadings-base period

Population at high pollution risk from BOD, N and P

Conclusions• Large potential of nexus lens—and significant demand for nexus analyses by

policymakers• Despite this, few scientific analyses are policy ready / relevant• Lack of standardization of scientific analyses and indicators together with locale-

specific conditions have created barriers• Need to be inclusive: Climate, land and environment are key in the nexus• Considerable governance challenges when bringing people to the table across

sectors / and hierarchies• The water sector is most engaged, while agriculture and energy are often absent• The final proof will be the application of the nexus concept in the SDG

implementation process