the fine line between prediction and intention (#eurocomm)
DESCRIPTION
Brandwatch Sales Director EMEA Naomi Trickey's presentation at Eurocomm 2013. www.brandwatch.comTRANSCRIPT
THE FINE LINE BETWEEN
PREDICTION & INTENTION
NAOMI TRICKEY [email protected] | Tel: +44 (0)1273 234 290 | @ntrickey
04/2013
Source/ July 2011 Census Data
NEW YORK CITY POPULATION: 8,244,910
© 2013 Brandwatch | www.brandwatch.com
WHO IS THE AUDIENCE?
© 2013 Brandwatch | www.brandwatch.com
Source/ Mary Meeker, Kleiner Perkins
“THE RE-IMAGINATION OF NEARLY
EVERYTHING…”
© 2013 Brandwatch | www.brandwatch.com
VOLUME VELOCITY VARIETY
© 2013 Brandwatch | www.brandwatch.com
Source/ Chris Walker @atallman
“BIG DATA IS MARKETING SPIEL.
IT DOESN’T EXIST. THERE IS ONLY
‘DATA’. THINK OF IT THIS WAY…
AN OCEAN ISN’T ‘BIG WATER’.”
© 2013 Brandwatch | www.brandwatch.com
“THE NUMBER OF SIGNIFICANT
FINDINGS DON’T REPLICATE THE
EXPANSION OF NOISE TO SIGNAL.”
Source/ David Brooks, NY Times
© 2013 Brandwatch | www.brandwatch.com
8
“WE CAN THINK OF THIS AS A
SIGNAL PROBLEM: DATA ARE
ASSUMED TO ACCURATELY
REFLECT THE SOCIAL WORLD, BUT
THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT GAPS,
WITH LITTLE OR NO SIGNAL
COMING FROM PARTICULAR
COMMUNITIES.”
© 2013 Brandwatch | www.brandwatch.com
Source/ Kate Crawford, HBR
AGGREGATE DATA TO FIND
PATTERNS AND INTENTION –
NOT NECESSARILY PREDICTIONS.
© 2013 Brandwatch | www.brandwatch.com
“THE MATHEMATISATION OF
SUBJECTIVITY WILL FOUNDER
UPON THE RESPLENDENT FACT
THAT WE ARE AMBIGUOUS
BEINGS… I HAVE NEVER VOTED
WHOLEHEARTEDLY IN AN
ELECTION.”
© 2013 Brandwatch | www.brandwatch.com
Source/ Leon Wieseltier, New Republic
11
Studies of Issues
© 2013 Brandwatch | www.brandwatch.com
LOOKING AT ISSUES, RATHER THAN POLITICIANS
© 2013 Brandwatch | www.brandwatch.com 12
Topics linked to the Scottish independence referendum by social media users
0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 14000 16000
Marine and fisheries
Built environment
Farming and rural issues
Public sector and government
Transport
Environment
Law order and public safety
Health and social care
Arts culture and sport
Education and training
People and society
Business industry and energy
Economy
Foreign affairs
SOCIAL MEDIA MENTIONS (JANUARY – MARCH 2013)
SCOTTISH INDEPENDENCE: ISSUES OVER TIME
© 2013 Brandwatch | www.brandwatch.com 13
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
Oct-12 Nov-12 Dec-12 Jan-13 Feb-13 Mar-13
ME
NT
ION
S
MONTHS
Arts culture and sport Business industry and energy Economy Foreign affairs
SOURCES
© 2013 Brandwatch | www.brandwatch.com 14
http://blogs.hbr.org/cs/2013/04/the_hidden_biases_in_big_data.html
http://www.nytimes.com/2013/02/19/opinion/brooks-what-data-cant-
do.html?_r=0&adxnnl=1&ref=davidbrooks&adxnnlx=1364824851-
8I+r+8/mWMTUOgBIkCcXAA
http://ideas.time.com/2013/03/29/viewpoint-why-predictions-fail-but-prophecies-dont/
http://cmo.com/content/cmo-
com/home/articles/2013/3/20/how_to_speak_big_dat.html.
http://www.newrepublic.com/article/112734/what-big-data-will-never-explain#
http://chiefmartec.com/2012/12/5-marketing-meta-trends-the-presentation/