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The Fifteenth Biannual Edition

INTELLIGENCE

REPORT

BUSINESS SHIFTS IN THE GLOBAL CATALYTIC PROCESS INDUSTRIES

2013-2019

STUDY PRESENTATION

(Completed May 2014)

The Fifteenth Biannual Edition

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INTELLIGENCE REPORT BUSINESS SHIFTS IN THE GLOBAL CATALYTIC

PROCESS INDUSTRIES 2013-2019

…Leading-edge Analyses and Guidance for Opportunity Identification and Strategic Investment…

The catalyst industry has always exceeded global economic GDP growth! In this report, between 2013-2019 it is forecast to grow at +5.4% p.a. Catalysis drives the progress and innovation across our modern global society, producing over $15 trillion annually, from gasoline to aspirin. It is therefore of vital strategic importance to your business development, opportunity and planning for success. It is at the heart of new product/process manufacturing, energy efficiency, productivity and profits! TCGR has completed the 15th edition of our biannual update, “The Intelligence Report: Business Shifts in the Global Catalytic Process Industries, 2013-2019.” Considered the industry “gold standard,” TCGR’s report goes beyond statistics and benchmarks to provide competitive insight and analysis vital to end users in the refining, petrochemical/ chemical, polymer, specialty/fine chemicals and environmental markets. This edition, completed in May 2014, builds on this tradition, as we have since the first biannual report was completed back in 1986! The chemical, plastics and environmental protection industries will lead growth over the next five (5) years. However within each industry segment, different opportunities abound because the suppliers and technologies are constantly evolving ( change is constant), whether it is via the deployment of new zeolites in HDD catalytic systems or a new “ALPHA II” MMA plant in Saudi Arabia. The global merchant catalyst market is forecast to grow from $25.3 BIL/yr in 2013 to reach $33.5 BIL/yr by 2019. If you were to include licensing and other direct services, the current market approaches $35 BIL/yr. Among the most significant events noted for the industry over the forecast period to 2019 are:

The refining industry’s growth is being constrained by environmental regulations and reduced transport fuels demand. New technology to improve using lower feedstock costs, producing fuels with zero sulfur and other mandated changes, means the industry’s opportunity is to recover margins through new products/price increases.

The petrochemical/chemical industries need to wisely invest in the revolution as a result of the international shale/tight oil windfall, while capturing significant new innovations that are changing its competitive landscape.

The thermoplastics industries need to revitalize new elastomer, polyester and niche value-added products, then capture margins through new catalysis. A revolution in polyester co-products seems on the horizon.

The environmental protection industries are deploying new combined systems and catalysis to meet ever more stringent mandates, spreading globally. New GHG/CO2 regulations are driving innovations for improved energy efficiency, new CO2 products and trends toward biochemical/biopolymers.

Full of opportunities and profit generating technologies, repeat clients within the refining, petrochemical/chemicals, plastics, specialty chemicals, environmental segments have returned to subscribe to each biannual edition because the unique source provides MID-TIER clarity beyond the macro-views that limit other sources.

The Intelligence Report has evolved from documenting technological and commercial statistical progress into a tool for identifying strategic business opportunities and providing major investment guidance…

New for 2014!

In order to increase the report’s utility to senior management and executives, TCGR has introduced a companion deliverable designed to complement the report contents, highlighting the key findings and making them more actionable. In a set of PowerPoint slides entitled, “Intelligence Report 2014 - Exec Deck,” TCGR has extracted the critical statistical data as well as technical, market and competitive/strategic insights, and deliver a presentation-style document. TCGR’s team of experts is then available to present these to subscriber audiences or they can be used to generate internal documents for strategic/competitive pursuits. The Exec Deck, and resultant Q&A during the presentation sessions, provides additional subscriber-specific value.

As the “Intelligence Report” has done in the past, it provides new business and technology perspectives, including:

Comprehensive, concise and detailed industry statistics on adjusted catalyst volumes and values, including forecasts

Producer-and user-specific developments in production and technology, including alliances, ventures and acquisitions/divestitures

Identification of new growth opportunities across the value chain (raw materials, licensing, services, technology, etc.)

Assessment of geographical, technological and competitive gaps Analysis and recommendations leading to specific actionable items

The Catalyst Industry’s “Gold Standard:” The Intelligence Report 2014

The Intelligence Report: Business Shifts in the Global Catalytic Process Industries, 2013-2019

The report’s actual Table of Contents appears on pages 4-18 and an order form appears on page 3. Further information is available at: http://www.catalystgrp.com/php/articledetail.php?IntelligenceReport2014-82

or by contacting John J. Murphy at [email protected] or +1.215.628.4447.

“Special Feature” Section In order to provide additional value and perspectives in the 2014 edition, we include our Special Feature content (Section VII) which addresses the increasingly important geographic regions of China and Latin America in catalyst technology development and commercial/market presence. As these regions become more self-sufficient, and as they increase their focus outside of their domestic requirements, the implications on global suppliers cannot be overlooked. This section documents the major catalyst market segment sizes, capabilities for technology development and the outlook for future plans, highlighting the role that these two regions will play in the global marketplace in the 2013-2019 period. We have provided insights that are unique and valuable enough to constitute, in effect, a report within a report.

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A Review of Some of Our Past Analyses and Predictions ...

The fourteenth edition (2012) highlighted the structure, competition and factors for success in the catalytic process industries beyond the report’s other sections (namely, Section III on industry market size/growth and Section IV on new catalyst products and processes). The section looked at technical/commercial value chains and market dynamics which depict the past and current competitive landscapes.

* * * * * The thirteenth edition (2010) highlighted the role of catalytic and membrane technologies in addressing the challenges of CO2 and greenhouse gases (GHG), specifically noting the technological developments and commercial activities directed towards two key areas: 1) CO2 capture and clean-up via membranes; and 2) CO2 conversion to products via catalysis.

* * * * * The twelfth edition (2008) featured the role of syngas conversion technologies for the production of olefins (MTO, MTP, etc.) and other chemicals including DME and higher ethers/alcohols. Process economics highlighted the competitiveness of these alternative routes and noted the importance of technology access.

All previous editions of the “Intelligence Report” series are available for purchase. Please visit:http://www.catalystgrp.com/php/tcgr_chemicals.php

ORDER FORM AND SECRECY AGREEMENT

_____ Please enter our order for “Intelligence Report: Business Shifts in the Global Catalytic Process Industries, 2013-2019” (completed May 2014). We understand that we will receive two (2) copies of the report. The cost of the report is US$22,000.

_____ Please send _____ additional corporate copies @ US$250 each

_____ We would like a “PDF” version (Adobe Acrobat) of the report for use at our site for an additional cost of US$1,000.

_____ Please enter our order for the “Intelligence Report 2014: Exec Deck” PowerPoint slide presentation for an additional US$5,500 (i.e., requires a concurrent subscription to report). This includes a 2-hour presentation by the TCGR report team, to be conducted via webinar with time for subscriber-specific Q&A (additional fees apply for on-site presentation).

In signing this order form, our company agrees to hold this report confidential and not make it available to subsidiaries unless a controlling interest of greater than 50% exists. Signature______________________________________________________Date_______________ Name____________________________________________Title___________________________________ Billing Address___________________________________________________________________________ _______________________________________________________________________________________ Shipping Address (No P.O. Boxes)___________________________________________________________ City______________________________________ State/Country___________ Postal Code/Zip__________ Purchase Order No._________________ Phone________________________________________________ Fax__________________________________ E-mail____________________________________________

(Pennsylvania companies must furnish tax exempt number or be subject to state sales tax)

This report and our study findings are sold for the exclusive use of the client companies and their employees only. No other use, duplication or publication of this report or any part contained herein, is

permitted without the express written consent of The Catalyst Group Resources.

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INTELLIGENCE REPORT:

BUSINESS SHIFTS IN THE GLOBAL

CATALYTIC PROCESS INDUSTRIES

2013-2019

CONTENTS

SECTION I. INTRODUCTION ...................................................................................... 1

A. BACKGROUND ...................................................................................................... 1

B. SCOPE AND OBJECTIVES .................................................................................... 2

C. METHODOLOGY ................................................................................................... 3

D. CATALYST INDUSTRY MODEL ENHANCEMENTS ........................................ 4

E. SOURCES OF INFORMATION ............................................................................. 6

F. DEFINITIONS .......................................................................................................... 6

SECTION II. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ...................................................................... 7

A. REFINING .............................................................................................................. 10

1. Global Catalyst Markets: Size and Growth ......................................................... 10

2. Product and Process Developments ..................................................................... 11

3. Commercial Drivers ............................................................................................ 12

4. R&D Drivers........................................................................................................ 13

5. Refining - Strategic Analysis and Recommendations ......................................... 14

B. PETROCHEMICALS/CHEMICALS ..................................................................... 15

1. Global Catalyst Markets: Size and Growth ......................................................... 15

2. Product and Process Developments ..................................................................... 16


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4. R&D Drivers........................................................................................................ 18

5. Petrochemical/Chemical - Strategic Analysis and Recommendations ................ 19

C. POLYMERIZATION ............................................................................................. 20

1. Global Catalyst Market: Size and Growth ....................................................... 20

2. Product and Process Developments ................................................................. 21

3. Commercial Drivers ......................................................................................... 25

4. R&D Drivers .................................................................................................... 25

5. Polymerization - Strategic Analysis and Recommendations ........................... 25

D. ENVIRONMENTAL .............................................................................................. 25

1. Global Catalyst Market: Size and Growth ........................................................... 26

2. New Product and Process Developments ............................................................ 27


4. R&D Drivers........................................................................................................ 29

5. Environmental - Strategic Analysis and Recommendations ............................... 29

SECTION III. GLOBAL CATALYST MARKET: SIZE AND GROWTH ............. 33

A. REFINING .............................................................................................................. 33

1. Global Overview.................................................................................................. 34

2. Regional Analysis ................................................................................................ 39

a. North America .................................................................................................. 39

b. South America & Caribbean ............................................................................ 39

c. Western and Eastern Europe ............................................................................ 40

d. Middle East/Africa ........................................................................................... 41

e. Asia/Pacific ...................................................................................................... 42

B. PETROCHEMICALS/CHEMICALS ..................................................................... 45

1. Catalysts for Aromatics ....................................................................................... 46

2. Catalysts for Organic Synthesis .......................................................................... 47

3. Catalysts for Oxidations ...................................................................................... 49

4. Catalysts for Syngas and Derivatives .................................................................. 51

5. Catalysts for Hydrogenation ................................................................................ 53

6. Catalysts for Dehydrogenation ............................................................................ 54

7. Total Market ........................................................................................................ 55

C. POLYMERIZATION ............................................................................................. 56

1. Polyethylene ........................................................................................................ 60

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2. Polypropylene ...................................................................................................... 61

3. Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC) ................................................................................... 62

4. Polyethylene Terephthalate (PET) ...................................................................... 63

5. Polystyrene .......................................................................................................... 64

6. Bioplastics ........................................................................................................... 64

D. ENVIRONMENTAL .............................................................................................. 66

1. Global Overview.................................................................................................. 67

2. Mobile Markets ................................................................................................... 68

a. Light Duty Vehicles ......................................................................................... 69

b. Medium/Heavy Duty Trucks/Buses ................................................................. 71

c. Non-road Heavy Duty Diesel Vehicles ............................................................ 73

d. Marine Ocean Vessels/Locomotives ................................................................ 74

e. Motorcycles (2 and 3 wheel vehicles) .............................................................. 75

3. Stationary Markets ............................................................................................... 76

a. Power Generation ............................................................................................. 78

b. Industrial ........................................................................................................... 78

E. REFERENCES .......................................................................................................... 80

SECTION IV. NEW PRODUCT DEVELOPMENTS, BY PROCESS TECHNOLOGY ............................................................................................................. 81

A. REFINING .............................................................................................................. 81

1. FCC ...................................................................................................................... 81

a. Albemarle ......................................................................................................... 81

i. Albemarle “T” Catalysts for Tight Oil Processing ....................................... 81

ii. Albemarle Commercializes 2’nd Generation Rare Earth Free SOx Additive......................................................................................................... 82

iii. Albemarle Bayport, TX Plant Expansion ..................................................... 83

b. BASF ................................................................................................................ 83

i. BASF Phinesse™ Phosphorous Stabilized Catalyst ..................................... 83

ii. BASF Tight Oil Processing Experience ....................................................... 84

iii. BASF Fortress™ Resid Catalyst Commercial Experience ........................... 85

iv. BASF/Shell Catalyst Supply and Development Agreement ......................... 86

v. New BASF European FCC Laboratory Testing Facilities ............................ 86

c. Grace ................................................................................................................ 86

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i. New Grace Catalysts for Tight Oils Processing ........................................... 86

ii. New Propylene Maximization FCC Additive ............................................... 88

iii. Grace Closes Louisiana FCC Production Facility ........................................ 89

iv. Grace Moves Forward on JV FCC Plant in Abu Dhabi ................................ 89

v. Grace Purchases China FCC Manufacturing Facility ................................... 89

vi. Continuing Cooperative Development of Rive Novel FCC Zeolite Catalyst 90

d. Sinopec ............................................................................................................. 90

i. Sinopec FCC Catalysts ................................................................................. 90

e. FCC Process Technology ................................................................................. 91

i. Shaw FCC Technology Purchased by Technip ............................................ 91

ii. Shaw/Axens Unique High Severity FCC Process Reaches Commercial Demonstration Stage ..................................................................................... 91

2. Reforming ............................................................................................................ 92

a. Axens ................................................................................................................ 92

i. New Axens CCR Catalysts ........................................................................... 92

b. UOP .................................................................................................................. 94

i. New UOP CCR Catalyst ............................................................................... 94

3. Hydrotreating/Hydrorefining ............................................................................... 95

a. Albemarle ......................................................................................................... 95

i. New CoMo KF 758 STARS ......................................................................... 95

ii. Albemarle Introduces New Specialty Guard Bed Gradings ......................... 96

iii. Maximizing ULSD Unit Product Volume with Albemarle High Activity NiMo Catalysts ............................................................................................. 96

iv. Nebula Bulk Metal Catalyst .......................................................................... 97

v. KF-905N FCC Pretreat Catalyst ................................................................... 98

vi. Startup of Albemarle JV Hydroprocessing Facility Pushed Back ................ 98

b. Advanced Refining Technologies (ART) ......................................................... 99

i. Next Generation ART CoMo and NiMo ULSD Catalysts ........................... 99

ii. New ART Hydrocracking Pretreat Catalyst ................................................. 99

iii. New ART Silica Tolerant Catalysts ............................................................ 100

c. Axens .............................................................................................................. 100

i. Axens New ImpulseTM Catalyst Series ....................................................... 100

d. Criterion .......................................................................................................... 101

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i. Criterion’s Latest Generation CENTERA® Catalyst Grades ..................... 101

ii. Criterion New Arsenic Trap ........................................................................ 102

iii. Criterion/Shell Dewaxing Technology ....................................................... 102

e. Haldor Topsoe ................................................................................................ 103

i. Haldor Topsoe Next Generation NiMo HyBRIMTM Catalyst .................... 103

ii. Haldor Topsoe Expands Denmark Production ........................................... 105

iii. Haldor Topsoe Dewaxing Catalysts ............................................................ 105

f. UOP/ExxonMobil Dewaxing Technology ..................................................... 105

g. Clariant Dewaxing Catalysts .......................................................................... 106

h. Catalyst Service Industry News ..................................................................... 106

i. Eurecat Purchase of TRICAT ..................................................................... 107

ii. Porocel Expands Capacity Internally and via Purchase of CRI Canada ..... 107

iii. Porocel Licenses New Regeneration Facility in Russia ............................. 107

4. Hydrocracking ................................................................................................... 107

a. Axens .............................................................................................................. 108

i. New Axens Catalysts .................................................................................. 108

b. ART & CLG ................................................................................................... 109

i. CLG and ART Formalize Cooperative Efforts for Hydrocracking Catalysts ...................................................................................................... 109

ii. ART/CLG ICR-250 Max Distillate Hydrocracking Catalyst ..................... 109

c. Criterion & Zeolyst ........................................................................................ 110

i. Criterion/Zeolyst Expanded Catalyst Offerings .......................................... 110

ii. Zeolyst/Rive Cooperative Efforts ............................................................... 111

d. Haldor Topsoe ................................................................................................ 111

i. New Haldor Topsoe Catalysts for Hydrocrackers ...................................... 111

e. UOP ................................................................................................................ 112

i. New Hydrocracking Catalysts from UOP ................................................... 112

5. Resid Upgrading/Slurry Hydrocracking ............................................................ 113

a. ART Dual Catalyst System for Ebullating Bed Resid Hydrocracking .......... 114

b. CLG Develops High Conversion LC-FINING Process LC-MAX ................ 114

c. Axens, Criterion and Headwaters HCAT® Alliance ..................................... 115

d. Chevron VRSH Slurry Hydrocracking ........................................................... 115

e. Commercialization of ENI EST Process ........................................................ 116

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f. KBR VCC Licensing ...................................................................................... 116

g. UOP UniflexTM Process .................................................................................. 117

h. Ivanhoe HTL® Process .................................................................................. 118

6. Alkylation .......................................................................................................... 120

7. Refining/2nd Generation Biofuel Efforts ............................................................ 120

a. KiOR Biomass Fluid Catalytic Cracking Progress ........................................ 122

b. UOP/Ensys Rapid Thermal Processing .......................................................... 122

c. UOP/Eni Ecofining™ ..................................................................................... 122

d. Haldor Topsoe HyFlex™ ............................................................................... 123

e. Axens Vegan™ Process Technology ............................................................. 123

B. PETROCHEMICALS/CHEMICALS ................................................................... 123

1. Aromatics ....................................................................................................... 124

a. Catalytic Reforming, Isomerization and Heavy Aromatics Conversion ........ 124

b. p-Xylene ......................................................................................................... 124

2. Organic Syntheses ............................................................................................ 125

a. Acetic Acid ..................................................................................................... 125

b. Alpha-olefins .................................................................................................. 125

c. 1,4-Butanediol ................................................................................................ 125

d. Ethanol ............................................................................................................ 126

e. Methyl Methacrylate ...................................................................................... 126

f. Nylons ............................................................................................................ 127

i. Nylon 6,6..................................................................................................... 127

ii. Nylon 12...................................................................................................... 127

g. Oxochemicals ................................................................................................. 127

h. Polyurethanes ................................................................................................. 127

i. Isocyanates ..................................................................................................... 128

j. Polyols ............................................................................................................ 128

3. Oxidations .......................................................................................................... 128

a. Acrylic Acid/Ester .......................................................................................... 128

b. Acrylonitrile ................................................................................................... 128

c. Ethylene Oxide/Glycols ................................................................................. 128

d. Hydrogen Peroxide ......................................................................................... 129

e. Maleic Anhydride ........................................................................................... 129

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f. Propylene Oxide ............................................................................................. 129

g. Sulfuric Acid .................................................................................................. 130

h. Terephthalic Acid/Dimethyl Terephthalate/PET ............................................ 130

i. Vinyl Acetate .................................................................................................. 130

4. Syngas and Derivatives ..................................................................................... 130

a. Steam Reforming ............................................................................................ 130

b. Gasification ................................................................................................... 131

c. Ammonia/Urea ............................................................................................... 131

d. Hydrogen ........................................................................................................ 132

e. Methanol ......................................................................................................... 133

f. Gas-to-liquids (GTL) and Fischer-Tropsch .................................................... 133

g. Coal-to-Chemicals .......................................................................................... 135

h. Other Syngas Chemicals – Succinic Acid ...................................................... 135

5. Hydrogenations ................................................................................................. 135

a. Hydrogenation of Acetylene .......................................................................... 135

b. Hydrogenation of Edible Oils and Fatty Acids .............................................. 135

6. Dehydrogenation/Olefins................................................................................... 135

a. Butadiene ........................................................................................................ 135

b. Ethylene .......................................................................................................... 137

c. Propylene ........................................................................................................ 138

7. Chemicals from Biomass ................................................................................... 138

C. POLYMERIZATION ........................................................................................... 148

1. Background on the Volume Plastics Industry ................................................... 148

2. Polymerization Catalyst Market Segments .................................................... 149

3. Low Density Polyethylene................................................................................. 151

a. LDPE Autoclave Reactor Technology ........................................................... 152

b. LDPE Tubular Reactor Technology ............................................................... 154

c. LDPE Product Technology Developments .................................................... 157

d. Free Radical Initiator Suppliers ...................................................................... 158

4. Linear Polyethylene: LLDPE and HDPE .......................................................... 159

5. Polypropylene .................................................................................................... 168

6. Polyvinyl Chloride ............................................................................................. 175

7. Polyethylene Terephthalate ............................................................................... 177

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8. Polystyrene ........................................................................................................ 181

9. Biopolymers....................................................................................................... 182

D. ENVIRONMENTAL ............................................................................................ 182

1. SCR systems ...................................................................................................... 185

a. Cold Starts ...................................................................................................... 185

b. Hydrocarbon Poisoning .................................................................................. 186

c. Other Development Areas .............................................................................. 186

2. Lean DeNOx Systems & Three-Way Catalysts ................................................ 186

a. PGM Replacement ......................................................................................... 187

3. Combined Environmental Catalyst Systems ..................................................... 187

a. SCR+DPF/CSF ............................................................................................... 188

b. SCR+LNT ...................................................................................................... 189

c. SCR+DOC ...................................................................................................... 189

d. EGR+SCR for HD Applications .................................................................... 189

4. Diesel Oxidation Catalysts ................................................................................ 190

5. PM & Black Carbon Filters ............................................................................... 190

6. Gasoline Emission Control ................................................................................ 192

7. Mercury Emissions Control for Stationary Systems ......................................... 192

8. Photo-Catalytic Systems .................................................................................... 193

9. Summary ........................................................................................................... 193

E. REFERENCES ..................................................................................................... 193

SECTION V. COMMERCIAL DRIVERS, IMPACTS AND TECHNOLOGY LICENSING, BY INDUSTRY ..................................................................................... 207

A. REFINING ............................................................................................................ 207

1. Regional Changes in Refining Capacity ............................................................ 207

2. Worldwide Gasoline vs. Distillate Demand Trends .......................................... 209

3. Impact of Light Tight Oil .................................................................................. 210

4. Canadian Heavy Oil Outlets .............................................................................. 211

5. Biofuels Mandate ............................................................................................... 212

6. Further Evolution of Sulfur Regulations ........................................................... 214

a. Vehicle Fuel Specification Changes ............................................................... 214

b. Marine Fuel Regulation Changes ................................................................... 214

7. Catalyst Industry Updates .................................................................................. 215

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B. PETROCHEMICAL/CHEMICALS ..................................................................... 216

1. Impact and Future Global Development of Shale Gas Production ................... 216

2. Impact of Slower Growth Rate in China ........................................................... 217

3. The Pursuit of Higher Energy Efficiency .......................................................... 218

4. Where Are We in the Economic Cycle? ........................................................... 219

5. What is the Outlook for M&A and Industry Consolidation? ............................ 219


1. Regional Supply/Demand of Resins and Impact on Trade ................................ 221

2. Consolidation/Ownership Changes and Catalyst Technology Shifts ................ 222

3. Inter-Material Substitution/New Product Development .................................... 224

D. ENVIRONMENTAL......................................................................................... 225

1. CO2 and Climate Change ............................................................................... 225

2. Stricter Mobile Emission Limits .................................................................... 227

a. North America ................................................................................................ 227

b. Europe ............................................................................................................ 229

c. China/India ..................................................................................................... 229

3. Fuel Efficiency Requirements ........................................................................ 230

4. Power Plant Mercury Emissions .................................................................... 231

5. Maritime ......................................................................................................... 231

6. Summary ........................................................................................................ 232

E. REFERENCES ..................................................................................................... 233

SECTION VI. R&D DRIVERS AND IMPACTS, BY INDUSTRY ........................ 237

A. REFINING......................................................................................................... 237

1. Changing Crudes and Feedstocks ...................................................................... 237

2. Cracking and Upgrading .................................................................................... 238

3. Zeolite Efforts .................................................................................................... 239

4. Matrices and Metals ........................................................................................... 240


1. The ICCA Roadmap .......................................................................................... 242

2. Status and Future Impact of Chemicals from CO2 ............................................ 242

3. What Will it Take for Biomass-derived Chemicals to Compete? .................. 243

4. Methane to Chemicals – Is There a Better Way than Through Syngas? ........... 244


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1. Customer-driven Product/Process Development ............................................... 245

2. Product/Process Sustainability and Environmental Issues ................................ 246

3. The Role and Impact of Polymerization Technology Development in China .. 247

4. Bio-derived Monomers and Polymers ............................................................... 247

D. ENVIRONMENTAL......................................................................................... 248

1. Multi-Catalyst Emission Reduction Systems ................................................. 249

2. Faster Light Off .............................................................................................. 250

3. CO2 Capture and Conversion/Utilization (CO2CC) .......................................... 251

E. REFERENCES ..................................................................................................... 251

SECTION VII. GEOGRAPHIC FOCUS: CATALYSIS IN CHINA AND LATIN AMERICA ....................................................................................................... 253

A. CHINA .................................................................................................................. 253

1. Refining Catalysts.............................................................................................. 253

2. Petrochemical/Chemical Catalysts .................................................................... 256

3. Polymerization Catalysts ................................................................................... 260

4. Environmental (Mobile and Stationary) Catalysts ............................................ 264

a. Mobile pollutant (motor vehicle) catalysts ..................................................... 264

b. Stationary pollutant catalysts .......................................................................... 267

i. SCR catalysts .............................................................................................. 267

ii. Claus desulfurization catalysts .................................................................... 269

B. LATIN AMERICA ............................................................................................... 270

1. Introduction ....................................................................................................... 270

2. Main Catalyst Producing Plants in Latin America ............................................ 271

3. Catalyst Consumption and Production .............................................................. 274

4. Patents and Publications in the Field of Catalysts ............................................. 276

a. Patents ............................................................................................................ 276

b. Publications .................................................................................................... 278

5. Research Centers ............................................................................................... 280

a. CENPES - Petrobras ....................................................................................... 280

b. NUCAT – Núcleo de Catálise ........................................................................ 280

c. CICAT – Centro de Investigaciones em Catálisis .......................................... 280

d. CINDECA ...................................................................................................... 281

e. INCAPE – Catalysis and Petrochemical Research Institute .......................... 281

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f. IMP – Instituto Mexicano del Petróleo .......................................................... 281

g. INTEVEP – Instituto de Tecnología Venezolana para el Petróleo ................ 281

6. Technology Trends ............................................................................................ 282

C. REFERENCES ..................................................................................................... 283

SECTION VIII. STRATEGIC ANALYSIS AND BUSINESS RECOMMENDATIONS .............................................................................................. 285

A. REFINING ............................................................................................................ 285

1. Refining Business Reallocation ......................................................................... 285

2. Refining Catalyst Business Reallocation ........................................................... 287


1. Major Global and Regional Industry Business Trends ...................................... 289

2. Energy and Feedstock Price Trends .................................................................. 290

3. Trends in Fuels and Feedstocks based on Biomass ........................................... 291


1. The Growing Participation of Independent Catalyst Suppliers ......................... 293

2. Following Geographical Shifts .......................................................................... 293

3. Linkage to Technology Developers ................................................................... 294

4. The Need for Continual Independent Research ................................................. 295

5. Focus on Market Creation ................................................................................. 296

D. ENVIRONMENTAL ............................................................................................ 296

1. Automobile Markets .......................................................................................... 297

2. Medium/Heavy Duty Trucks/Buses .................................................................. 298

3. Non-Road Heavy Duty Vehicles ....................................................................... 298

4. Marine/Ocean Vessels/Locomotive ................................................................... 299

5. Motorcycles ....................................................................................................... 299

6. Stationary Power................................................................................................ 299

7. Stationary Industrial .......................................................................................... 300

FIGURES

Figure II-ES-1 Global Catalyst Market Value, 2013-2019 ........................................... 8

Figure III-A-1 2012-2018 Annual Crude Distillation Capacity Changes (mb/d) ....... 37

Figure III-A-2 Refinery Catalyst Revenue by Region, 2013-2019 (Includes Alkylation) .......................................................................................... 38

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Figure III-C-1 Global Metallocene Polyethylene (mPE) Resin Consumption, by Co-Polymer, 2011-19 (,000 MT) ........................................................ 61

Figure III-C-2 Global Metallocene Polypropylene (mPP) Resin Consumption, by Co-polymer, 2011-19 (,000 MT) ........................................................ 62

Figure III-C-3 Biopolymers Production Capacity 2015 (by Type) ............................ 65

Figure III-D-1 Global Light Duty Vehicle Production by Region, 2012-2020 (MIL)................................................................................................... 70

Figure III-D-2 Europe & US Motorcycle NOx &CO Standards, 2004-2020 ............. 76

Figure IV-A-1 Albemarle ACTION ADZT-100 Zeolite Containing Catalyst - Gasoline Yield, Octane and C4 Olefin Selectivity vs. RE-USY Catalyst ............................................................................................... 82

Figure IV-A-2 Phinesse Yield Deltas vs. NaphthaMax .............................................. 84

Figure IV-A-3 FCCU Feed Gravity Change with LTO Using NaphthaMax Catalyst ............................................................................................... 84

Figure IV-A-4 Impact of LTO Processing on FCCU Conversion Using NaphthaMax Catalyst .......................................................................... 85

Figure IV-A-5 Conversion Improvement with BASF Fortress ................................... 85

Figure IV-A-6 Performance of Axens Quad-Metallic PS-100 Catalyst ..................... 93

Figure IV-A-7 UOP Portfolio of Reforming Catalysts ............................................... 94

Figure IV-A-8 Albemarle STARS Catalyst Portfolio ................................................. 95

Figure IV-A-9 Effect of NiMo vs. CoMo Catalyst on API Gravity and Hydrogen Consumption ....................................................................................... 97

Figure IV-A-10 Growth in Nebula Usage ..................................................................... 98

Figure IV-A-11 Comparison of ART 545DX Activity with Previous NiMo Generations ......................................................................................... 99

Figure IV-A-12 Silica Pickup Capacity of Latest ART Guard Bed and Main Bed Catalysts ............................................................................................ 100

Figure IV-A-13 Axens Impulse Technology Benefits ................................................ 101

Figure IV-A-14 Criterion NiMo CENTERA DN-3651 Activity Improvement vs. Previous Generation Grades ............................................................. 101

Figure IV-A-15 Commercial Performance of Criterion CENTERA DN-3620 Hydrocracking Pretreat Catalyst ....................................................... 102

Figure IV-A-16 Performance of Shell SDD-800 vs. Conventional Dewaxing Catalysts ............................................................................................ 103

Figure IV-A-17 Volume Swell Increase with Haldor Topsoe TK-609 HyBrim ........ 104

Figure IV-A-18 Improved Aromatics Saturation with Holdor Topsoe TK-609 HyBrim ............................................................................................. 104

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Figure IV-A-19 TK-609 HyBRIM Hydrocracker Pretreat Performance .................... 105

Figure IV-A-20 MIDW Performance Comparison on a High Sulfur Feed ................ 106

Figure IV-A-21 Axens Hydrocracking Catalysts ........................................................ 108

Figure IV-A-22 Portfolio of ART/CLG Hydrocracking Catalysts ............................. 110

Figure IV-A-23 Latest Portfolio of Criterion Hydrocracking Catalysts ..................... 111

Figure IV-A-24 Haldor Topsoe Hydrocracking Catalyst Portfolio ............................ 112

Figure IV-A-25 HC-130LT Once Through Performance ........................................... 112

Figure IV-A-26 UOP Hydrocracking Catalyst Portfolio ............................................ 113

Figure IV-A-27 LC-MAX Process Schematic ............................................................ 115

Figure IV-A-28 Flow Schematic of Eni EST Process ................................................ 116

Figure IV-A-29 VCC Process Schematic ................................................................... 117

Figure IV-A-30 UOP Uniflex Process Schematic ...................................................... 117

Figure IV-A-31 Ivanhoe HTL Process Flow Schematic ............................................. 118

Figure IV-A-32 HTL Product Yields .......................................................................... 119

Figure IV-A-33 AlkyClean Process Schmatic ............................................................ 120

Figure IV-A-34 Ensyn RTP Process Capacities and Costs ......................................... 122

Figure IV-B-1 Entech Renewable Energy Solutions Pty. Ltd. Waste-to Energy Plant .................................................................................................. 131

Figure IV-B-2 Chart Energy & Chemicals, Inc. Compact Fischer-Tropsch Reactor .............................................................................................. 133

Figure IV-B-3 Synfuels China Technology Co. Fischer-Tropsch Process ............... 134

Figure IV-B-4 Wison Engineering Ltd. Butene ODH Process for Butadiene .......... 136

Figure IV-C-1 World Autoclave LDPE Capacity by Process Technology .............. 152

Figure IV-C-2 World Tubular LDPE Capacity by Process Technology .................. 155

Figure IV-C-3 Global LDPE Capacity Trends by Line Size .................................... 156

Figure IV-C-4 Linear Ethylene Polymer Capacity by Process – 2013, Kilotons/Year .................................................................................... 160

Figure IV-C-5 The Soaring Popularity of the Hostalen Process ............................... 160

Figure IV-C-6 Technology Success Trajectories in Linear PE Processes ................ 162

Figure IV-C-7 Linear PE Capacity Additions by Process ........................................ 163

Figure IV-C-8 The Evolution of the Loop Slurry PE Reactor .................................. 165

Figure IV-C-9 Post-Metallocene SSC for Single Reactor Biomodals ...................... 167

Figure IV-C-10 Phenolate Ether SSC for UHMWPE ................................................. 168

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Figure IV-D-1 Europe & US Heavy Duty Vehicle NOx & PM Standards, 1998-2013 ......................................................................................... 184

Figure IV-D-2 A Combined Emissions Reduction System ...................................... 188

Figure IV-D-3 LD Diesel NOx Aftertreatment Concepts ......................................... 191

Figure V-A-1 Global Refinery Crude Distillation Closures .................................... 208

Figure V-A-2 OECD vs. Non-OECD Crude Oil Runs ............................................ 208

Figure V-A-3 Global Transportation Fuel Mix Projections .................................... 209

Figure V-A-4 LTO Assay Comparison with Other Low Sulfur Crudes ................. 210

Figure V-A-5 Comparison of U.S. LTO and Canadian Bitumen ............................ 211

Figure V-C-1 Olefin Supply/Demand: It Pays to Invest! ........................................ 221

Figure V-C-2 New Licensed Capacity for Polyolefin Production in China, 2012-2016 ......................................................................................... 223

Figure V-C-3 PP ZN Catalysts 2013: Global Market Shares (%). .......................... 223

Figure V-C-4 Linear PE Catalysts 2013: Global Market Shares (%)...................... 224

Figure V-D-1 Passenger Car CO2 Emission Standards by Country, 2000-2025 ..... 226

Figure V-D-2 Announced and Anticipated Emission Regulations, 2010–2020 ...... 228

Figure V-D-3 Passenger Car Fuel Economy Standards by Country, 2000-2025 .... 230

Figure V-D-4 North American Emission Control Area........................................... 232

Figure VII-B-1 Brazilian Catalyst Export Market Volumes and Prices (kmt, US$/kg) ................................................................................... 275

Figure VII-B-2 Brazilian Catalyst Import Market Volumes and Prices (kmt, US$/kg) ................................................................................... 276

TABLES

Table II-ES-1 Global Catalyst Market Value, 2011-2019 (US$ MIL) ..................... 8

Table III-A-1 Worldwide Refining Capacity, 2008-2013 (MBPD, # Refineries).. 34

Table III-A-2 Change in Refining Crude Distillation Capacity (KBPD) ............... 35

Table III-A-3 2012/2013 Crude Capacity Shutdowns ............................................ 36

Table III-A-4 2013 vs. 2011 Catalytic Refining Process Capacities (KBPD) ....... 37

Table III-A-5 Global Refinery Catalyst Market by Process, 2011-2019 (US$MIL, `000 mt) .......................................................................... 38

Table III-A-6 North America Refinery Catalyst Market, 2011-2019 (US$MIL, `000 mt) .......................................................................... 39

Table III-A-7 South America & Caribbean Refinery Catalyst Market, 2011-2019 (US$MIL, `000 mt)........................................................ 40

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Table III-A-8 Western Europe Refinery Catalyst Market, 2011-2019 (US$MIL, `000 mt) .......................................................................... 41

Table III-A-9 Eastern Europe Refinery Catalyst Market, 2011-2019 (US$MIL, `000 mt) .......................................................................... 41

Table III-A-10 Middle East and Africa Refinery Catalyst Marke,t 2011-2019 (US$MIL, `000 mt) .......................................................................... 42

Table III-A-11 Japan Refinery Catalyst Market, 2011-2019 (US$MIL, `000 mt) ... 43

Table III-A-12 China Refinery Catalyst Market, 2011-2019 (US$MIL, `000 mt) .. 44

Table III-A-13 Pacific Rim & South Asia Refinery Catalyst Market, 2011-2019 (US$MIL, `000 mt)........................................................ 44

Table III-B-1 Global Catalyst Market for Aromatics Production, 2011-2019 (US$MIL, `000 mt) .......................................................................... 46

Table III-B-2 Global Catalyst Market for Organic Synthesis, 2011-2019 (US$MIL, `000 mt) .......................................................................... 48

Table III-B-3 Global Catalyst Market for Oxidation Catalysis, 2011-2019 (US$MIL, `000 mt) .......................................................................... 49

Table III-B-4 Global Catalyst Market for Syngas and Derivatives, 2011-2019 (US$MIL, `000 mt) .......................................................................... 52

Table III-B-5 Global Catalyst Market for Hydrogenation, 2011-2019 (US$MIL, `000 mt) .......................................................................... 53

Table III-B-6 Global Catalyst Market for Dehydrogenation, 2011-2019 (US$MIL, `000 mt) .......................................................................... 54

Table III-B-7 Global Petrochemical/Chemical Catalyst Market by Application, 2011-2019 (US$MIL, `000 mt)........................................................ 55

Table III-C-1 Return to “Normal:” Polymerization Catalyst Growth Rates, 2011-13 (US$MIL) .......................................................................... 57

Table III-C-2 Worldwide Catalyst Market – Polymerization (US$ MIL) ............. 57

Table III-C-3 Global Polymerization Catalyst Markets by Polymer and Catalyst Type: 2011-2019 (US$ MIL, 000’s MT) ........................... 58

Table III-C-4 Plastic Resins: Average Annual Growth Rates, 2013-2019 ............ 59

Table III-D-1 Worldwide Market for Pollution Control Catalysts by Application 2011-2019 (US$MIL) .................................................. 67

Table III-D-2 Worldwide Environmental Catalyst Market for Air Pollution Control by Region 2011-2019 (US$MIL) ....................................... 68

Table III-D-3 Worldwide Light Duty Vehicle Market by Region, 2011-2019 ...... 71

Table III-D-4 Regulated & Total MD & HD Vehicles, 2013-2019 (MIL) ............ 72

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Table III-D-5 Worldwide MDD+HDD On-Road Regulated Catalyst Market 2013-2019 ........................................................................................ 72

Table III-D-6 Worldwide Industrial Pollution Control by Region 2011-2019 ($USMIL) ........................................................................................ 77

Table IV-A-1 Albemarle SOx Additives ................................................................ 83

Table IV-A-2 Fortress RFCC Trial Results ............................................................ 86

Table IV-A-3 FCC Tight Oil Processing Challenges and Solutions ...................... 87

Table IV-A-4 ACHIEVE 400 Yield and Gasoline Quality Comparison ................ 88

Table IV-A-5 Grace OlefinsUltra MZ Pilot Plant Performance vs. Previous Generation OlefinsUltra HZ at 5% Additive Level ......................... 89

Table IV-A-6 Pilot Plant Data Showing Rive MH-1 FCC Benefits ....................... 90

Table IV-A-7 Semi-Commercial Yield Results on Various HS-FCC Feeds .......... 92

Table IV-A-8 UOP R-334 vs. R-234 CCR Catalyst Relative Yields and Aromatic Selectivity ........................................................................ 94

Table IV-A-9 ICR-250 Benefits Over Previous Generation ICR-240 ................. 109

Table IV-A-10 ART Ebullating Bed Catalyst Pilot Plant Result Comparison ....... 114

Table IV-A-11 HTL Product Quality ..................................................................... 119

Table IV-A-12 Projected Available Cellulosic Biofuel Plants Volumes for 2014, Millions of Gallons .............................................................. 121

Table IV-B-1 Developments in Chemicals from Biomass – Focus on Hydrogen........................................................................................ 139

Table IV-B-2 Developments in Chemicals from Biomass – Focus on C2 Olefins and Derivatives.................................................................. 139



Table IV-B-5 Developments in Chemicals from Biomass – Focus on C4 Alcohols and Derivatives ............................................................... 142

Table IV-B-6 Developments in Chemicals from Biomass – Focus on Acids and Esters ............................................................................. 143

Table IV-B-7 Developments in Chemicals from Biomass – Focus on Butanediol ...................................................................................... 144

Table IV-B-8 Developments in Chemicals from Biomass – Focus on Succinic Acid ................................................................................................ 145

Table IV-B-9 Developments in Chemicals from Biomass – Focus on PET ........ 146

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Table IV-B-10 Developments in Chemicals from Biomass – Focus on Adipic Acid, HMDA and Polyamides ....................................................... 147

Table IV-C-1 Polyolefin Licensors by Technology ............................................. 149

Table IV-C-2 Increase in Linear PE Capacity by Technology: 2010 to 2020, Kilotons/Year ................................................................................. 164

Table IV-C-3 Percentage Change in Total PP Capacity from 2010 to 2020 by Technology .................................................................................... 171

Table IV-C-4 Increase in PP Capacity from 2010 to 2020 by Technology, Kilotons/Year ................................................................................. 172

Table IV-D-1 Patenting Activity in Exhaust Catalysts, January 2012–March 2014................................................................................................ 183

Table V-A-1 Statutory and Proposed RFS Mandate Levels for 2014 ................. 213

Table V-C-1 Commercial Drivers for Thermoplastics ....................................... 220

Table VII-A-1 Production of Oil Refining Catalysts in China .............................. 255

Table VII-A-2 Production of Major Oil Refining Catalyst Producers in China .... 255

Table VII-A-3 Output of Petrochemical and Chemical Catalysts in China in 2011 ........................................................................................... 258

Table VII-A-4 Output, Import, Export and Consumption of the Six Major Types of Synthetic Resins in China in 2011 .................................. 262

Table VII-A-5 Major Producers and Capacities of Motor Vehicle Catalysts in China .......................................................................................... 265

Table VII-A-6 Supply/Demand Balance of Motor Vehicle Ceramic-Support Catalysts in China .......................................................................... 266

Table VII-A-7 Demand Projection of Motor Vehicle Catalysts in China ............. 266

Table VII-A-8 Major Producers and Capacities of SCR Catalysts in China ......... 268

Table VII-A-9 Market Outlook for SCR Catalysts in Thermal Power Plants of China, 2011-2016 ........................................................................... 269

Table VII-A-10 Supply/Demand Balance of Claus Catalysts in China and Projection ....................................................................................... 270

Table VII-B-1 Catalyst Production Plants in Latin America ................................. 272

Table VII-B-2 Catalyst Markets in Latin America, 2012-2020 (MMUSD; kmt) .. 274

Table VII-B-3 Number of Publications in the Field of Catalysis in Latin America for Distinct Countries ...................................................... 280

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