the evolution of blade manufacturingwindpower.sandia.gov/2004bladeworkshop/pdfs/brianglenn.pdf ·...
TRANSCRIPT
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The Evolution of Blade Manufacturing
Brian GlennDirector, Rotor Blades
Clipper Windpower Technology, Inc.
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TOPICS
• BLADE SIZE• THE INDUSTRY• DESIGN EVOLUTION
– Materials– Processes
• COST• FUTURE STUDIES
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BLADE SIZE OVER TIME
50+ meter
34 meter
23 meter
20 meter
12 meter
9 meter
7.5 meter
5 meter
1978 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
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BLADE SIZE OVER TIME – cont’d
• Product life cycle is 3 to 6 years• New development time is 1 to 2 years• Tenfold size increase over 25 years (5 meter to 50
meter)• The industry is maturing (i.e. aviation)• Original blade length is now the maximum chord length
of large blades• Production methodology must evolve to accommodate
large blades
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50.5 Meter Blade
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MYTH…..
Blade manufacturing is a GREAT business ! !
“Show me the Blade Millionaires”
INDUSTRY
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INDUSTRY - CASUALTIES
WintechPeterson ProductsPolenko
Wind MasterFayetteBlue Max
ATVStorm MasterCentury Design
CarterHowdenGougeon Brothers
AWTWEGAeroConstruct
TackeAerpacBouma
FlowindStorkKenetech
EDO FibersciencePolymarinAeroDynamics
Heath TechnaRotorlineAlternegy
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Companies With Off-the-shelf Product
• LM• NOI
INDUSTRY – cont’d
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Sub-Contract Manufacturers (Will Build Your Blade)
MFG TPI TECSISA&R ATV LMNOI
INDUSTRY - cont’d
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Wind Turbine Companies(Manufacturing Their Own Blades)
Bonus Enercon GE Wind MiconVestas Nordex Gamesa Suzlon
INDUSTRY – cont’d
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DESIGN EVOLUTION
STALL REGULATED
PITCH
VARIABLE SPEED PITCH
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DESIGN EVOLUTION – cont’d
• In the beginning, the turbine was designed around an “off the shelf ” blade:– 90% of blades were out-sourced– Built in Western Europe and the U.S.
• Today, turbines are specifically designed…driven by loads, site conditions, control strategies, and COE targets:– 50% of blades are out-sourced– Built in Western Europe and U.S….and Brazil, India, &
China• In the future:
– Majority of blades will be designed in-house– Built in low-cost countries
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MATERIALS
• Steel late 70s• Aluminum late 70s• Wood Epoxy late 70s• Polyester E-Glass late 70s• Epoxy E-Glass late 70s• Epoxy Kevlar early 80s• Epoxy S-Glass early 80s• Epoxy Carbon early 80s
New Materials ?
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MATERIALS – cont’d
Change Cost
• E-Glass (Roving) - 15% $0.60 / lb• E-Glass (Stitched) - 20% $1.00 / lb• Carbon (Roving) - 40% $5.00 / lb• Polyester Resin +20% $0.80 / lb• Epoxy Resin - 20% $1.25 / lb
Change in Cost over Time: 1984 – 2004 (Approximate)
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PROCESSES
• Filament Winding late 70s• Wet Lay-up Vacuum Bagged late 70s• Wet Lay-up late 70s• Pultrusion late 70s• Pre-saturated Rovings late 70s• RTM late 80s• Pre-pregs late 80s• Infusion mid 90s
New Processes ?
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PROCESSES – cont’d
Filament Winding
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17Dry Lay-up before infusion
PROCESSES – cont’d
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PROCESSES – cont’d
Infusion (in process)
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PROCESSES – cont’d
• Industry ramp up ramp down cycles favor automated lower labor hour processes
• Fiber waviness is a major driver• Changing to Roving vs. Stitched UD saves 2.6% of
blade cost; the same as a 20% labor reduction in a LCC
• Fiber sizings – binders need more study to enhance infusion
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COST
MYTH…..
BLADES ARE EXPENSIVE ! ! !
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COST – cont’d
Blade Cost Per Pound
$0.00
$2.00
$4.00
$6.00
$8.00
1978 1983 1988 1993 1998 2003Time
$US
Europe/US Polyester Kenetech Vinyl Ester US Epoxy In-house
Europe Market Price Low Cost Country Nacelle Cost
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COST – cont’d
Blade Cost Per kW
$80$90
$100$110$120$130$140
1978 1983 1988 1993 1998 2003
Time
$US
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COST – cont’d
BLADE WEIGHT (lbs) Per kW
0
5
10
15
lbs
Stall Regulated
Sub MW
Multi MW
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Materials50%
Direct Labor30%
Profit9%
Overhead11%
Materials66%
Direct Labor13%
Profit6%
Overhead15%
Cost Distribution Ex Works
US Built Low Cost Country (LCC)18% Less
COST – cont’d
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Typical Cost Differences
COST – cont’d
$0
$10,000
$20,000
$30,000
$40,000
$50,000
$60,000
US Cost Distribution Low Cost Country
Transportation
Overhead
Profit
Direct
Materials
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COST – cont’d
• Overhead today is about the same in US vs. LCC– Opportunity for reduction in LCCs
• Labor cost reduction is limited– Advantageous to the US / Western Europe Model
• Material costs are at a very low level– Local supply helps LCC model– Risk of increase– Change from a stitched product to rovings; achieves
large savings• Transportation cost adder is the “wild card”• Best opportunity for cost reduction is a longer
uninterrupted product life cycle (steady state)
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FUTURE STUDIES
AeroHigher thickness to chord airfoilsDesign for load reduction; interact with loads group,
structures, and control strategy
ProcessMore consistent automated processesBetter understanding of volume impact vs. plant size to blade
cost.
Load MitigationFeedback loops – control strategy – fiber brag – towerPredictive algorithmSmart blades – either structure or Aero
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FUTURE