the european foundry association · - 1 - caef council meeting – helsinki - 10-11 june 2016 ©...

- 1 -

CAEF Council Meeting – Helsinki - 10-11 June 2016

© CAEF, www.caef.eu

CAEF The European Foundry Association

Council Meeting

Helsinki, 10-11 June 2016

- 2 -



Purpose of our meeting

• Information exchange

• Discussion of economic situation

• Raw materials

• Energy

• Technical issues

• Etc.

• Non-topics for our meetings: Prices Quotas Concrete customer relationships Any measures with indirect effect on the topics mentioned above Statistics have to respect these issues

Please take note of the CAEF

anti-trust compliance guideline

- 3 -



General economic situation Report by Max Schumacher and updates by the delegates

Item 3

- 4 - © CAEF, www.caef.eu

Economy and Key Indicators

Background for Foundry Business

Bild: Fotolia


0,5

0,4

0,3 0,3

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0,4

0,3 0,3

0,7 0,7

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0,3 0,3

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0,4

0,3

0,2 0,2

0,3

0,9

1,0

0,8 0,8 0,8

0,4

0,5

0,4

0,6

0,4

1,4

1,1

1,3

1,2

0,7

0,2

1,0

0,5

0,3

0,1

0,4

-1,0

0,0

1,0

2,0

1Q

15

2Q

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3Q

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Euro Area Germany France Italy Spain UK Turkey USA

GDP First Quarter 2016

Source: Eurostat, national institutes, trade economics

Change in % qoq

Germany: Driven by private consumption and public investments!

France: First signs of life?

Italy: Now back on the growth path? Is this stable enough?

Spain: Strong recovery!

ECB: Current interest-rate level set on “hold”, start buying of

corporate bonds!


1,51,7

1,51,6

1,7 1,71,6

1,11,3

1,11,3

0,8

1,3

1,0

1,3

3,2

2,72,6

2,32,2 2,2

1,9

2,2

3,02,9

2,52,6

2,82,9

1,5

0,0

1,0

2,0

3,0

4,0

5,0

6,0

7,0

8,0

2015

2016

2016 n

ew

2017

2015

2016

2016 n

ew

2017

2015

2016

2016 n

ew

2017

2015

2016

2016 n

ew

2017

2015

2016

2016 n

ew

2017

2015

2016

2016 n

ew

2017

2015

2016

2016 n

ew

2017

2015

2016

2016 n

ew

2017

2015

2016

2016 n

ew

2017

2015

2016

2016 n

ew

2017

Euro Area Germany France Italy Spain UK Turkey USA China India

GDP Forecast 2016/2017

Source: IMF, April 2016

Change in % yoy

India: Strong only in view of low raw material prices!

China: Big question marks behind all data!?

USA: Stable growth but a strong dollar makes export business difficult!

Turkey: Strong recovery based on a low level!

EURO Area: Everything set on “zero”

Russia: Recession

Brazil: Recession


-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

Jan

92

Jan

93

Jan

94

Jan

95

Jan

96

Jan

97

Jan

98

Jan

99

Jan

00

Jan

01

Jan

02

Jan

03

Jan

04

Jan

05

Jan

06

Jan

07

Jan

08

Jan

09

Jan

10

Jan

11

Jan

12

Jan

13

Jan

14

Jan

15

Jan

16

Jan

17

Ind

ustr

ial

Pro

du

cti

on

Ch

an

ge i

n %

yo

y

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

Bu

sin

ess C

lim

ate

Industrial Production Business Climate

Source: Eurostat, Industrial Production March 2016

Euro Area Business Climate Indicator May 2016

Weak Development without Cyclic Movement!

Snapshot: The Business Climate Indicator (BCI) for the euro area improved. But

managers' production expectations worsened strongly and their views on export order

books remained virtually unchanged.

Economic cycle Economic cycle Investment boom

Recession

Recovery

No (!) cycle


Source: Markit

Euro Area Purchasing Manager Index (PMI) May 2016

Lateral Movement

a closer look at the sectors

positive level (>50 points)

Service

Industry


Source: Markit

Euro Area GDP vs Purchasing Manager Index (PMI)

PMI complete Index

GDP yoy

• Close relation GDP and PMI

• PMI is the earliest available

information on the current status

• PMI is no forecasting tool!


20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Jan 05 Jan 06 Jan 07 Jan 08 Jan 09 Jan 10 Jan 11 Jan 12 Jan 13 Jan 14 Jan 15 Jan 16 Jan 17

Source: Institute for Supply Management™ (ISM), USA PMI works with a corresponding level of ca. 45 %!

USA Purchasing Manager Index (PMI) May 2016

Strong Dollar vs Low Oil Prices vs Domestic Investments

New Orders Difference to other PMI because of the higher

share of private consumption:

Index above 43 points = expansion of the

overall economy

Comments from the panel:

• "Continued brisk order flow for our

business." (Fabricated Metal Products)

• "Steady to slightly up production rates vs.

prior month." (Machinery)

• "Business is still good, but slowing."

(Transportation Equipment)

• "Oil & Gas continues to struggle to meet cost

controls required in the new low-oil price

environment." (Petroleum & Coal Products)


51,3

49,2

47,7

51,552,1

48,4

52,451,8

50,7

49,6

41,6

30,0

35,0

40,0

45,0

50,0

55,0

USA China Japan Euro

Area

Germany France Italy Spain India Russia Brazil

Selected Countries Manufacturing Purchasing Manager Index (PMI)

April/May 2016

Source: Markit, tradingeconomics

Index

Index above 50 points

= increasing economy (dominated by

industrial production and service)


Business Climate German Suppliers May 2016

Expectations with Negative Saldo Despite the Last Two Months

Source: Ifo München, ArGeZ Arbeitsgemeinschaft Zulieferindustrie

Saisonal adjusted

-80

-70

-60

-50

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Jan 06 Jan 07 Jan 08 Jan 09 Jan 10 Jan 11 Jan 12 Jan 13 Jan 14 Jan 15 Jan 16 Jan 17

Porpotion positve and negative

reports

Current status Perspectives


USA: Positive (dynamic peak reached?)

China: VAT support programme for small cars

with max.1.6 l engines

Europe: Dynamic recovery, but heterogenious

Russia: Chance for bottom out!

Brazil: Recession

Passenger Cars Sales (not! Production) April 2016

Source: VDA


Europe Passenger Cars 1-4 2016:

Examples for Stable Recovery

Source: VDA, ACEA, EFTA= Iceland, Norway, Switzerland and Liechteinstein

Western Europe

(EU15 + EFTA)

strong market

Important:

Germany

orders in stock

Germany

sales


Europe Passenger Cars 1-4 2016 :

Examples for Stable Recovery

Source: VDA, ACEA, * "Programa de Incentivos al Vehículo Eficiente, PIVE 2

France

awaken

UK

peak

passed?

Italy

dynamic

recovery

Spain

special support

programme

„PIVE“ *


Europe Passenger Cars 1-4 2016: Russia and Turkey

Source: VDA, Russia = light vehicle

Russia

unbroken negative

despite

„scrappage scheme“

Turkey

flat line

since spring 2015


Passenger Cars Sales 1-4 2016: Outside Europe

Source: VDA, Brazil = light trucks

USA

different trends

Brazil

disaster

China since October

VAT incentives

to support the market,

forecast 2016 positive

Japan

downward trend


50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

150

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

AE Inland AE Ausland AE Eurozone AE außerhalb der Eurozone

Incoming Orders Vehicle Industry

Germany March 2016

External orders under pressure

impact of China

Source: Stat. BA, Index 2010=100, saisonal adjusted, calculation BDG

change in %

against period a year

before, cumulative


Europe Trucks Sales 1-4 2016: Mirror of the Economy

Source: VDA, ACEA

France

awaken

UK economy is

booming

Peak?

Spain

driven by

incentives

Italy

recovery


Trucks Sales 1-4 2016: Outside of Europe

China downturn, change in % yoy

USA boom for heavy

trucks is over?

Forecast -10%!

Brazil

recession

India (>3,5t)

positive development

based on a low volume

Source: VDA, ACEA


Global Automotive Industry 2016

Forecast Sales Passenger Cars

Region 2015 2016

World + 1% + 2%

USA + 5% + 1%

China + 4% + 6% (revised up)

W-Europe + 7% + 1%

New EU Countries + 8% + 4%

Germany + 6% + 3% (revised up)

France + 5% + 2%

UK + 6% - 2%

Spain +18% ± 0%

Italy +14% + 7%

Russia - 35% ± 0%

Brazil - 20% further minus

Japan - 9% + 2%

Picture: Fotolia Source: VDA, national associations,


40 branches

roundabout 20 identified as

casting intensive

e.g.

• Machine Tool Industry

• Hydraulics and Pneumatics

• Agricultural Machinery

• Metallurgical Plants and Rolling Mills

• Incoming orders for Germany:

1-4 2016

Impulses: large plant orders Extra EU

= local content impact!

General Engineering – Second Most Important Customer

picture: MS picture: MS


50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

150

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Production Incoming Orders

Incoming Orders (IO) General Engineering

Germany March 2016

Source: Stat. BA, Index 2010=100, calendar- and seasonally adjusted, calculation BDG

• Incoming orders Germany =>1/3 of the EU market

• 4 years in a row nearly a flat line!

change in %


before

01-03.2016

Prod + 1,5 %

IO + 2,7 %

01-12.2015

Prod - 0,8 %

IO + 2,1 %


0

50

100

150

200

250

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

IO Mining and Building Machinery

Incoming Orders Mining Equipment and Building Machinery

Germany March 2016

01-12.2015

IO - 4,7 %

Building Machines

forecast turnover 2016 + 3%

but

mining equipment and

exploration components

with unbroken weak trend!

change in %


before


01-03.2016

IO - 10,1 %


50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

150

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

IO Pumps and Compressors

Incoming Orders Pumps and Compressors

Germany March 2016

change in %


before

pumps and compressors

are suffering because

of low investment level at the

mining industry, base chemicals etc.


01-03.2016

IO - 2,7 %


0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

IO Plastics and Rubber Machinery

Incoming Orders Plastics- and Rubber Machines

Germany March 2016

01-12.2015

IO + 9,5 %

unique engineering sector

with positive forecasts 2016 and 2017

despite the weak start in 2016!

change in %


before


01-03.2016

+ 2,0 %


0

50

100

150

200

250

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

IO Domestic IO External IO Euro Area IO Extra Euro Area

Incoming Orders Plastics- and Rubber Machines

Germany March 2016

change in %


before

Suprising:

Orders from Southern Europe

are very strong!!



0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

IO Agriculture Machinery

Incoming Orders Agriculture Machinery

Germany March 2016

01-12.2015

IO - 0,3 %

Orders with temporary bottom out?

Forecast 2016 negative!

change in %


before


01-03.2016

ÎO - 1,5 %


0

50

100

150

200

250

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

IO Domestic IO External IO Euro Area IO Extra Euro Area

Incoming Orders Agriculture Machinery

Germany March 2016

01-3.2016

Domestic - 6,6 %

External + 0,8 %

thereof

Euro Area + 3,7 %

Extra Euro Area - 2,3 %

In autumn 2015 incoming orders from France!

Just a flash in the pan!

change in %


before



0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

IO Textile Machinery

Incoming Orders Textile Machinery

Germany March 2016

change in %


before


Bottom out and recovery trend

since summer 2015

01-03.2016

IO - 0,4 %


0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Linie 1 IO DomesticIO External IO Euro AreaIO Extra Euro Area 3 Per. Gleitender Durchschnitt (Linie 1)

Incoming Orders Textile Machinery

Germany March 2016

01-03.2016

Domestic + 5,8 %

External - 1,6 %

thereof

Euro Area - 6,1 %

Extra Euro Area – 0,5 % change in %


before

Suprising:

Orders from Southern Europe

are very strong!!



80

85

90

95

100

105

110

115

120

125

130

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

IO Valves and Fittings

Incoming Orders Valves and Fittings (Industry and Buildings)

Germany March 2016

Industrial valves and fittings

Incoming orders 2015 - 1%,

China demand weak, exports - 6 %

Forecast 2016: Stagnation

change in %


before


01-03.2016

IO + 1,1 %


Short Range Outlook World Steel Industry

Source: World Steel


General Engineering 2016

Heterogenious Forecasts for the Different Sectors

Source: VDMA, change in % against prev. Year, * = 3-5%

Forecast 2016 2015

Robotic, Automation

Test and Measurement Technology

Food and Packing Machines

Textile Machines

Print and Paper Machines

Air Technology

Foundry Machines

Valves and Fittings

Process Engineering

Building + Building Material

Machines

Compressors + Vacuum Technology

Drive Technology

Liquid Pumps

Engines and Systems

Agricultural Machinery

Mining Equipment

Metallurgical Plants and Equipment

June 2016: revised down Foundry Machines -5%!


Short Summary

Bild: Fotolia, Nesterov Vasily;


Chances • Passenger cars: Positive impulses in the USA and dynamic replacement trend in Europe, 2016

peak for the US and EU? Weakness in Russia and South America, China with big question marks!

• Commercial vehicles: EU market is running well but uncertainties about medium-term perspectives

for China, Russia and the Americas.

• General Engineering: 2016 only stagnation!

Positive: tool machines, automation, robotics, foundry machines and rubber- and plastic machines

wind turbines (volume ok, prices under pressure)

Negative (temporary): mining, agrícultural, paper machines

low capacity utilisation in the EU as well as low raw material prices are dumpening

investments

• Further impulses possible from the building industry (in the long term!)

Risks • Unchanged: Overcapacities in Europe – hard price competition – structural change

• Raising key interest rates in the USA will lead to further capital outflow from emerging markets

• Chinese cooling down

• Geopolitical crises

• Brexit (!?)

Perspectives for the Foundries 2016


European Foundry Industry – High and Low Close Together

Expectations Unchanged

Source: Eisenwerk Brühl, Bernd Rosenbaum


0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Ferrous and Steel Castings Non Ferrous Castings

Source: CAEF

CAEF Foundry Industry Production Ferrous and Non-Ferrous

in m. t


0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Ferrous and Steel Castings thereof Steel Castings

Source: CAEF

CAEF Foundry Industry Production Ferrous and Steel

in m. t


50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Ferrous and Steel Castings Non Ferrous Castings

Source: CAEF

CAEF Foundry Industry Production Ferrous and Non-Ferrous

Index 2006=100


50

60

70

80

90

100

110

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Ferrous and Steel Castings thereof Steel Castings

Source: CAEF

CAEF Foundry Industry Production Ferrous and Steel

Index 2006=100


CAEF Ferrous and Steel Castings 2015

Stagnation as Launching Ramp for 2016

Source CAEF in 1000 t, a) estimated, b) without investment castings, c) calculated with average rate of change of reporting countries

Country 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2014 : 2013 2015 : 2014

+/- %

Austria 160,8 150,0 152,7 155,4 155,9 1,7 0,3

Belgium 78,3 74,4 71,4 76,5 71,6 7,1 -6,4

Croatia 40,8 41,3 42,8 43,5 43,3 c) 1,7 -0,4

Czech Rep. 365,7 336,7 328,0 293,5 a) 289,0 a) -10,5 -1,5

Denmark 79,2 76,2 78,9 77,9 3,6 -1,2

Finland 91,5 78,6 70,1 63,3 59,0 -9,8 -6,7

France 1.674,7 1.436,4 1.419,2 1.393,6 1.328,5 -1,8 -4,7

Germany d) 4.540,2 4.267,4 4.122,7 4.150,9 4.085,4 0,7 -1,6

Hungary 56,8 52,6 69,0 86,6 92,1 25,5 6,3

Italy 1.235,0 b) 1.115,4 b) 1.146,3 b) 1.164,0 b) 1.130,7 1,5 -2,9

Lithuania

The

Netherlands

Norway 58,2 52,8 53,3 40,1 33,7 -24,8 -15,9

Poland 678,7 a) 688,0 700,0 700,0 a) 709,0 a) 0,0 1,3

Portugal 127,6 116,9 108,3 121,5 137,9 12,2 13,5

Slovenia 145,2 159,0 143,8 153,1 152,5 c) 6,5 -0,4

Spain 1.106,3 985,5 976,3 1.006,2 1.002,2 c) 3,1 -0,4

Sweden 251,1 228,4 228,3 231,6 261,2 1,4 12,8

Switzerland 62,8 47,8 47,3 45,1 38,1 -4,5 -15,4

Turkey 1.262,5 1.260,0 1.243,0 1.400,0 1.470,0 12,6 5,0

United

Kingdom 441,8 396,3 363,1 371,2 387,3 2,2 4,3

Total CAEF 12.457,1 11.487,4 11.361,7 11.574,9 11.525,4 1,9 -0,4


80

90

100

110

120

130

140

150

160

170

180

Jan

08

Mai

08

Sep

08

Jan

09

Mai

09

Sep

09

Jan

10

Mai

10

Sep

10

Jan

11

Mai

11

Sep

11

Jan

12

Mai

12

Sep

12

Jan

13

Mai

13

Sep

13

Jan

14

Mai

14

Sep

14

Jan

15

Mai

15

Sep

15

Jan

16

Mai

16

Sep

16

Jan

17

current situation expectations for six months

FISI – European Foundry Industry Sentiment Indicator

(Ferrous) May 2016

Source CAEF, Index 2010 = 100, recalculation since Jan 2014: country weight based on production 2013 (incl. Croatia)

Expectations under pressure despite

January 2016:

Downward trend on the ferrous side

plus gap between status and perspectives


80

85

90

95

100

105

110

Jan

08

Mai

08

Sep

08

Jan

09

Mai

09

Sep

09

Jan

10

Mai

10

Sep

10

Jan

11

Mai

11

Sep

11

Jan

12

Mai

12

Sep

12

Jan

13

Mai

13

Sep

13

Jan

14

Mai

14

Sep

14

Jan

15

Mai

15

Sep

15

Jan

16

Mai

16

Sep

16

Jan

17



(Steel Castings) May 2016

Data collection has started December 2013

Source CAEF, Index Nov 2013 = 100, recalculation since Jan 2014: country weight based on production 2013 (incl. Croatia)

Current status and expectations

extremely weak!


CAEF Non-Ferrous 2015

The Third Positive Year in a Row!?

Source CAEF in 1000 t, a) estimated, b) without copper castings, c) revised figures d) calculated with average rate of change of reporting countries

Country 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2014 : 2013 2015 : 2014

+/- %

Austria 149,1 142,4 131,6 138,0 140,7 4,9 2,0

Belgium 1,2 0,8 1,7 1,9 2,2 9,1 18,4

Croatia 13,0 13,0 20,0 22,3 23,8 d) 11,5 7,0

Czech Rep. 94,3 92,0 95,0 a) 108,0 a) 116,0 a) 13,7 7,4

Denmark 4,7 4,1 4,0 4,3 -3,4 9,9

Finland 7,8 6,9 7,6 7,1 8,0 -6,8 12,9

France 371,8 362,3 328,9 335,8 356,9 2,1 6,3

Germany 991,2 c) 988,2 c) 1.007,1 c) 1.134,2 1.221,3 12,6 7,7

Hungary 105,2 102,6 104,6 108,2 112,4 3,4 3,9

Italy 978,3 844,3 825,4 860,9 900,5 4,3 4,6

Lithuania

The

Netherlands

Norway 7,0 5,6 b) 6,5 b) 6,6 b) 7,2 b) 1,4 10,0

Poland 279,2 348,0 358,0 358,0 a) 353,0 a) 0,0 -1,4

Portugal 24,4 29,2 30,6 34,9 45,4 14,2 30,1

Slovenia 34,9 33,4 38,8 44,9 48,0 d) 15,8 7,0

Spain 132,4 133,4 131,3 135,6 145,1 d) 3,3 7,0

Sweden 57,2 55,0 56,9 58,2 62,6 2,3 7,6

Switzerland 24,4 21,6 19,1 20,4 18,1 7,0 -11,4

Turkey 170,5 185,0 300,0 300,0 380,0 0,0 26,7

United

Kingdom 135,1 124,0 123,1 131,0 131,0 6,4 0,0

Total CAEF 3.581,7 3.487,4 3.590,2 3.809,9 4.076,6 6,1 7,0


80

90

100

110

120

130

140

150

160

170

180

Jan

08

Mai

08

Sep

08

Jan

09

Mai

09

Sep

09

Jan

10

Mai

10

Sep

10

Jan

11

Mai

11

Sep

11

Jan

12

Mai

12

Sep

12

Jan

13

Mai

13

Sep

13

Jan

14

Mai

14

Sep

14

Jan

15

Mai

15

Sep

15

Jan

16

Mai

16

Sep

16

Jan

17



(Non-ferrous) May 2016

Source CAEF, Index 2010 = 100, recalculation since Jan 2014: country weight based on production 2013 (incl. Croatia)

Quite optimistic:

Current status = relaxed

non-ferrous foundries are expecting

continuation of the positive trends!


Quick Survey CAEF Council

Current Status/Perspectives Ferrous


-80

-70

-60

-50

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Business current

status

Incoming orders Cost expectations: Personnel Material Energy Business

expectations

Quick Survey Council

Current Status/Perspectives Ferrous

Positive or increasing

…% of the foundries

Source: CAEF

Not satisfactory or decreasing



0

10

20

30

40

50

60

- replacement and/or rationalisation - expansion and/or restructuring

planned in progress not planned


Investments Ferrous

Source: CAEF, in % of the foundries



Further Comments Ferrous

Current problems flat market, lake of visibility France

Very high energy costs. Tight environment and waste requests. Portugal

Short orderstock. Difficult to predict the 2 nd half of 2016 Sweden

The size of the inland market has not expanded during the last years, even decreased (steel casting). The increasing of the production was basicaly based upon two foreign owned companies which are exported all their products. Hungary

Impulses to discuss in the next meeting price decrease France

SPECIFICATIONS FOR IRON SCRAP FOR FOUNDRY (packages, cupola,…), CAEF Index Italy

Closures MT Technologies (113 ?) - steel investment castings France

6 plants Germany

New installations

The two biggest and multi national companies enlarge very much their capacities, the others realise smal investments and renewing/ rectructuring. Hungary

New nodular iron plant in construction. Start of production beggining 2017. Portugal



Current Status/Perspectives Non-Ferrous


-80

-70

-60

-50

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Business current

status

Incoming orders Cost expectations: Personnel Material Energy Business

expectations


Current Status/Perspectives Non-Ferrous

Positive or increasing


Source: CAEF

Not satisfactory or decreasing



0

10

20

30

40

50

60

- replacement and/or rationalisation - expansion and/or restructuring

planned in progress not planned


Investments Non-Ferrous

Source: CAEF, in % of the foundries



Further Comments Non-Ferrous

Current problems

Impulses to discuss in the next meeting aluminium Tariffs, aluminium Premiums Italy

Closures 1 plant Germany

New installations

New aluminium die-casting plant from an international group installed in 2015, for the production of automotive components. New plant from the same group to be installed in 2016. Portugal

some planned and 1 new Austria

Continuous, the export markets is more than 85% and are much wider then the running capacities. Hungary


German Foundry Industry


German Foundry Industry 2015 by Material (Production)

Source: BDG, Stat. BA

Ferrous complete

4,085 m. t

-1,6 %

7,015 bn Euro

-2,9 %

thereof

Iron castingss

2,338 m. t, -1,8 %

Ductile castingss

1,551 m. t, -0,8 %

Steel castingss

196 800 t, -4,6 %

Non-ferrous complete

1,221 m. t

+7,7 %

5,743 bn Euro

+4,6 %

thereof

Aluminium

1,072 t, +7,9 %

Magnesium

15 200 t, +2,1 %,

Copper

79 400 t, +10,2 %

Zinc

54 700 t, +2,6 %


German Foundry Industry 2015 by Customer (Production)

Ferrous complete

4,085 m. t

-1,6 %

7,015 bn Euro

-2,9 %

thereof

Vehicle industry (56 % share)

2 ,305 m. t, + 0,2 %

Engineering (25 % share)

1,001 m. t, - 5 %

Other (19 % share)

0,780 m. t, -2,1 %


1,221 m. t

+7,7 %

5,743 bn Euro

+4,6 %

thereof

Vehicle industry (80 % share)

0,979 m. t, + 12 %

Other (20 % share) *

0,242 m. t, - 7 %

* Engineering (<1 % share)



German Foundry Industry 1-4 2016 by Material (Production)


Ferrous complete

1.385 m. t

-3,5 %

thereof

Iron castingss

790 300 t, -3,1 %

Ductile castingss

530 900 t, -3,0 %

Steel castingss

63 400 t, -11,5 %


409 000 t

-4,3 %

thereof

Aluminium

354 800 t, -5,4 %

Magnesium

6 100 t, +9,4 %,

Copper

28 700 t, +4,1 %

Zinc

19 400 t, +1,7 %


50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

150

Jan 08 Jan 09 Jan 10 Jan 11 Jan 12 Jan 13 Jan 14 Jan 15 Jan 16 Jan 17

Fahrzeugbau Maschinenbau Gießerei-Industrie

Foundry Industry

01-04.2016 - 4,4 %

Quelle: Stat. BA, Index 2010=100, kalender- und saisonbereinigt, Berechnungen BDG

Change in %

against previous

year

Vehicle Industry

01-04.2016 - 0,1 %

Engineering Industry

01-04.2016 + 0,8 %

Foundry Industry Incoming Orders Germany

Step to Recovery?

Foundry Industry

1-12.2015 - 1,7 %

Vehicle Industry

1-12.2015 + 1,4 %

Engineering

Industry

1-12.2015 + 2,1 %


50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

150

160


Iron castings

01-04.2016 - 4,5 %

Incoming Orders Iron Castings: Bottom Out!

Incoming Orders Steel Castings: High Volatility on Low Level!

Steel castings

01-04.2016 - 22,8 %


Change in %

against previous

year

Vehicle Industry

01-04.2016 - 0,1 %


01-04.2016 + 0,8 %

Iron castings

1-12.2015 - 3,4 %

Steel castings

1-12.2015 - 7,5 %

Vehicle Industry

1-12.2015 + 1,4 %

Engineering

Industry

1-12.2015 + 2,1 %


50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

150


Incoming Orders Non-Ferrous Castings: Holding Level of 2015!

Light metal castings

01-04.2016 - 0,6 %

Heavy Metal

castings

01-04.2016 + 0,1 %


Change in %

against previous

year

Vehicle Industry

01-04.2016 - 0,1 %


01-04.2016 + 0,8 %

Light metal castings

1-12.2015 + 1,7 %

Heavy Metal

castings

1-12.2015 - 0,8 %

Vehicle Industry

1-12.2015 + 1,4 %

Engineering

Industry

1-12.2015 + 2,1 %


-60

-50

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Jan

11

Mrz

11

Mai

11

Jul

11

Sep

11

Nov

11

Jan

12

Mrz

12

Mai

12

Jul

12

Sep

12

Nov

12

Jan

13

Mrz

13

Mai

13

Jul

13

Sep

13

Nov

13

Jan

14

Mrz

14

Mai

14

Jul

14

Sep

14

Nov

14

Jan

15

Mrz

15

Mai

15

Jul

15

Sep

15

Nov

15

Jan

16

Mrz

16

Mai

16

Monat/Jahr

Source: Ifo-Institut, München, BDG

The Foundry Manager are More Sceptical – Uncertainties for the

Next Six Months Driven by the Ferrous and Steel Side!

Optimism:

Improvement is expected by…% of the foundries

Scepticism:

Worsening is expected by…% of the foundries


Capacity Utilisation Foundry Industry Germany II. Q. 2016

Source: ifo, BDG at the beginning of every quarter

% of full capacity operation

50

55

60

65

70

75

80

85

90

95

100

I.09 II.09 III.09 IV.09 I.10 II.10 III.10 IV.10 I.11 II.11 III.11 IV.11 I.12 II.12 III.12 IV.12 I.13 II.13 III.13 IV.13 I.14 II.14 III.14 IV.14 I.15 II.15 III.15 IV.15 I. 16 II. 16

- 64 -



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Council Meeting

Helsinki, 10-11 June 2016

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