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The European Commission’s
science and knowledge service
Joint Research Centre
The structure of the
Kenyan economy Kenya Social Accounting Matrix
Workshop on Modelling Impacts of National
Policies on Kenyan Economy
Nairobi, April 28, 2016
Alfredo Mainar Causapé
Outline
•Introduction
•2014 Kenya SAM estimation
•Analysis of the Kenyan Economy structure with SAM data
Introduction
Simulations and the applications of CGE model developed in this study needs to be calibrated to a specific SAM that requires an ad hoc structured database.
We estimated a virtually new SAM for Kenya (base year 2014) with an unusual structure, incorporating specific accounts for the treatment of HPHC (Aragie (2015), McDonald (2010)) and a high level of regionalization based on agro-economic zoning and social characteristics.
Accordingly, it would be feasible to address specific issues such as semi-subsistence economic systems, agricultural production, mobility of factors, and other elements with a regional dimension.
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Kenya SAM estimation
Data from different sources and applied updates in specific structural relationships. This generated new original values, consistent with latest available national statistics.
2014 Kenya SAM is a novel contribution as it is estimated from the new rebased National Accounts (including a short version of Supply and Use Tables) for Kenya (KNBS, 2015a, 2015b) as well as the micro-data from Kenya Integrated Household Budget Survey (KIHBS) 2005/06 (KNBS, 2007).
Other relevant databases related to agriculture (Government of Kenya, 2015), and labour markets (KNBS (2015a, 2015b)
Use auxiliary the production structure of previous SAMs elaborated by the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI), i.e. (Kiringai et al. (2007), Thurlow et al. (2007), Thurlow and Benin (2008)).
4
Kenya SAM estimation
2014 Kenya SAM is based on the standard structure that considers activities and commodities separately.
However, there are peculiarities that make Kenya SAM 2014 deviate from other classical structural assumptions.
HPHC concept is introduced in the SAM by assuming that each household also has a "productive activity". Besides the classic Representative Household Groups (RHG) that collect household behaviour as consumers of goods and services and as providers of factors of production (and receptor-contributors of transfers), in the Kenya 2014 SAM new accounts are presented showing the behaviour of households as units of production of commodities.
These accounts incorporate the economic behaviour of households as producers of food commodities (agricultural and livestock products for food) as well as cash crops.
5
Kenya SAM estimation
This requires also separate accounts for commodities produced by these households for own consumption (HPHC as input or as a final product) and other marketed commodities (produced both by households and by conventional productive activities).
Households considered as producers have been broken down regionally, while commodities produced are taken at national level in unique accounts.
In order to form the RHG, households as institutions have been further disaggregated into rural and urban, according to the area of residence, moreover the two metropolises, Nairobi and Mombasa, have been broken down by income quintiles. As a result, the 2014 Kenya SAM contains 24 RHG, a number allowing for a good analysis of redistributive aspects and specific impact of different policies.
6
Kenya SAM estimation
Regional breakdown in the 2014 Kenya SAM is based on agro-ecological characteristics. The country has been divided into seven agro-ecological zones, in addition to the two major metropolises, i.e., Nairobi and Mombasa. The nine regions considered are:
Nairobi
Mombasa
High Rainfall
Semi-Arid North
Semi-Arid South
Coast
Arid North
Arid South
Turkana 7
Kenya SAM estimation
Nairobi Mombasa High Rainfall High RainfallSemi-Arid
North
Semi-Arid
SouthCoast Arid North Arid South Turkana
Nairobi Mombasa Kiambu Bondo Nyeri Taita Taveta Kilifi Isiolo Tana River Turkana
Kirinyaga Nyando Mbeere Kitui Kwale Marsabit Garissa
Muranga Bomet Mwingi Makueni Lamu Moyale
Nyandarua Keiyo Nyambene Kajiado Malindi Mandera
Thika Kericho Tharaka Narok Wajir
Maragua Koibatek Laikipia Baringo
Embu Marakwet Samburu
Machakos Nakuru
Meru Central Nandi
Meru South
Gucha
Homa Bay Buret
Kisii Bungoma
Kisumu Busia
Kuria Mt. Elgon
Migori Kakamega
Nyamira Lugari
Rachuonyo Teso
Siaya Vihiga
Suba
Trans Mara
West Pokot
Trans Nzoia
Uasin Gishu
Butere/Mumias
Agro Ecological Zones in Kenya SAM 2014. Districts and provinces (old)
Nairobi Mombasa High Rainfall High RainfallSemi-Arid
North
Semi-Arid
SouthCoast Arid North Arid South Turkana
NAIROBI COAST CENTRAL RIFT VALLEY CENTRAL COAST COAST EASTERN COAST RIFT VALLEY
EASTERN WESTERN EASTERN EASTERN NORTH EASTERN NORTH EASTERN
NYANZA RIFT VALLEY RIFT VALLEY RIFT VALLEY 8
Kenya SAM estimation
In terms of agricultural production, the SAM accounts for three types of production agents:
9 household agricultural activities (one per each AEZ region) that produce 18 "subsistence commodities" not marketed and consumed at home and 17 marketed crops.
3 regional households produce only one or more of the 6 exported crops (cotton, sugar, coffee, tea, tobacco and other crops manly flowers).
Business enterprise sectors which at national level produces food and cash crops. These activities represent the market oriented larger holder producers.
Three types of labour in the SAM: skilled, semi-skilled and unskilled labour. Each labour factor is also regionalized, giving the nine regions of reference plus a rest of the world account. Hence, the SAM takes into account 30 different types of labour.
9
Kenya SAM estimation
Kenya SAM 2014 activities and commodities
HPHC RHG as activities (food)
Maize Maize Other livestock Metals and machines Nairobi Food crops Chemicals
Wheat Wheat Fishing Non metallic products Mombasa Cotton Fertilizers Nitrogen
Rice Rice Forestry Other manufactures High Rainfall Sugarcane Fertilizers Phosphorus
Other cereals Other cereals Mining Water Semi-Arid North Coffee Fertilizers Potassium
Roots and tubers Roots and tubers Meat and dairy Electricity Semi-Arid South Tea Metals and machines
Pulses and oil seeds Pulses and oil seeds Grain milling Construction Coast Tobacco Non metallic products
Fruits Fruits Sugar and bakery… Trade Arid North Others crops Other manufactures
Vegetables Vegetables Beverages and tobacco Hotels Arid South Livestock Water
Beef Cotton Other manufactured food Transport Turkana Dairy Electricity
Dairy Sugarcane Textile and clothing Communication Fishing Construction
Poultry Coffee Leather and footwear Finance RHG as activities (cash crops) Mining Trade
Sheep, goat… Tea Wood and paper Real estate High Rainfall Meat and dairy Hotels
Other livestock Tobacco Printing and publishing Other services Semi-Arid North Grain milling Transport
Fishing Others crops Petroleum Adminsitration Semi-Arid South Sugar and bakery… Communication
Sugar and bakery… Beef Chemicals Health Beverages and tobacco Finance
Beverages and tobacco Dairy Fertilizers Nitrogen Education Other manufactured food Real estate
Other manufactured food Poultry Fertilizers Phosphorus Textile and clothing Other services
Water Sheep, goat… Fertilizers Potassium Leather and footwear Adminsitration
Wood and paper Health
Printing and publishing Education
Petroleum
Marketed commodities Activities
10
Kenya SAM estimation
In summary, the 2014 Kenya SAM consists of 193 accounts:
54 activities (12 of them accounts of households as producers)
52 marketed and 18 HPHC commodities
3 types of labour (skilled, unskilled and semi-skilled) in 10 regions (30 labour accounts in total)
3 types of capital (agricultural, non-agricultural and livestock) and 2 types of land (irrigated and non-irrigated).
5 types of taxes: direct, indirect, sales, factors and imports taxes.
24 regionalized RHG.
Respective accounts for margins, saving-investment, enterprises, government and rest of the world are also included.
11
Kenya SAM estimation
Kenya SAM 2014 (abbreviated version). Kshs '000 million
ch cm m ahf ahc a flab fland flivst fcap_ag fcap_na hh enter gov dirtax indtax saltax facttax imptax i_s row Total
HPHC commodities (ch) 150.7 161.1 0.9 313
Marketed commodities (cm) 292.5 293.9 50.1 3,158.5 4,162.0 750.4 1,144.2 954.0 10,806
Margins (m) 292.5 292
Households as activities food (ahf) 312.7 1,045.8 1,358
Households as activities cash-crops (ahc) 197.7 198
Activities (a) 7,087.1 7,087
Labour factor (flab) 92.7 14.6 1,545.9 15.9 1,669
Land factor (fland) 536.2 113.7 206.8 857
Livestock (flivst) 141.2 33.6 175
Capital agricultural (fcap_ag) 98.7 19.3 77.3 195
Capital non-agricultural (fcap_na) 45.1 1,912.3 1,957
Households (hh) 1,600.2 856.1 174.7 195.2 455.4 1,048.5 41.6 324.3 4,696
Enterprises (enter) 0.3 1,501.0 505.4 2,007
Government (gov) 554.0 152.7 207.0 7.9 160.7 25.7 1,108
Direct taxes (dirtax) 311.6 242.4 554
Indirect taxes (indtax) 152.7 153
Sales taxes (saltax) 207.0 207
Factor taxes (facttax) 6.6 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.9 8
Imports taxes (imptax) 160.7 161
Save/Investment (i_s) 51.3 715.8 -213.9 592.0 1,145
Rest of the World (row) 1,815 62 10 25 1,912
Total 313 10,806 292 1,358 198 7,087 1,669 857 175 195 1,957 4,696 2,007 1,108 554 153 207 8 161 1,145 1,91212
Analysis of the Kenyan Economy structure with SAM data
119.7%
18.4%
38.0%
Domestic absortion Exports Imports
Domestic absorption, exports and imports as % of GDP
13
Analysis of the Kenyan Economy structure with SAM data
Private
consumption
69.5%
Investment
18.4%
Government
consumption
12.1%
Composition of domestic absorption
14
Analysis of the Kenyan Economy structure with SAM data Distribution of Labour factor and Value Added by aggregate activities
Distribution of Labour factor and non-agricultural Capital by aggregate activities
21.8%
0.8%
1.3%
5.0%
11.9%
1.1%
8.2%
49.8%
7.7%
0.8%
1.1%
1.7%
6.0%
0.9%
7.6%
74.1%
Crops
Livestock
Natural
Resources
Food
Industrial
Utilities
Construction
Services
Value Added Labour
Crops +
Livestock
Natural
Resources Food Industrial Utilities Construction Services
Labour 8.6% 1.1% 1.7% 6.0% 0.9% 7.6% 74.1%
Capital (non-agricultural) 2.3% 1.0% 3.1% 13.3% 1.8% 6.9% 71.7% 15
Analysis of the Kenyan Economy structure with SAM data
Value Added/Gross Output ratio by aggregate activities
71.2%
75.3%
71.5%
22.7%
36.4%
58.9%
38.5%
62.9%
Crops
Livestock
Natural Resources
Food
Industrial
Utilities
Construction
Services
16
Analysis of the Kenyan Economy structure with SAM data
Labour factor/Value Added ratio by aggregate activities
9.5%
24.7%
22.6%
29.2%
26.4%
26.7%
46.4%
45.2%
Crops
Livestock
Natural Resources
Food
Industrial
Utilities
Construction
Services
17
Analysis of the Kenyan Economy structure with SAM data
Share of HPHC activities in production factors
6.5%
75.9%
80.8%
60.4%
2.3%
21.3%
Labour Land Livestock Capital
(agricultural)
Capital (non-
agricultural)
Value Added
18
Analysis of the Kenyan Economy structure with SAM data
Share of inputs in intermediate consumption in agricultural activities
HPHC
(food)
HPHC
(cash) Activities
Total
agricultura
l sector
HPHC inputs 0.34 0.00 0.00 0.28
Chemical products 0.07 0.11 0.03 0.09
Fertilizers 0.04 0.09 0.00 0.05
Other Marketed inputs 0.55 0.80 0.96 0.58
Irrigated land
2.5%
Non-irrigated land
97.5%Share of use of irrigated / non irrigated land in agricultural sectors
19
Analysis of the Kenyan Economy structure with SAM data
Imports and exports composition
Agricultural products, 12.5%
Manufactured and others,
58.0%
Petroleum and mining,
26.5%
Services, 3.0%
Imports
20
Analysis of the Kenyan Economy structure with SAM data
Imports and exports composition
Agricultural products, 39.5%
Industrial commodities,
23.5%
Services, 37.0%
Exports
21
Analysis of the Kenyan Economy structure with SAM data
8.6%
38.0%
69.6%
1.3%
17.4%
8.2%
7.4%
10.6%
24.0%
8.9%
Agricultural products
Manufactured and others
Petroleum and mining
Services
Total economy
Imports dependency Imports tax rate (implicit)
Imports dependency and implicit imports tax rate
22
Analysis of the Kenyan Economy structure with SAM data
Distribution of households' income
Factors income Transfers
Labour Land Livestock Capital
(agricultural)
Capital (non-
agricultural) Enterprises Government
Rest of the
World
Kenya 34.1% 18.2% 3.7% 4.2% 9.7% 22.3% 0.9% 6.9%
Rural 35.5% 30.7% 6.3% 2.7% 6.6% 11.4% 1.2% 5.6%
Urban 32.3% 2.9% 0.6% 5.9% 13.6% 35.8% 0.5% 8.5%
Nairobi 32.3% 0.2% 0.0% 7.4% 8.3% 38.8% 0.6% 12.4%
Mombasa 55.5% 2.3% 0.0% 3.5% 4.4% 29.0% 0.3% 4.9%
High Rainfall 32.7% 24.6% 4.4% 3.3% 12.4% 17.7% 0.5% 4.4%
Semi-Arid North 33.1% 33.5% 8.6% 2.7% 2.6% 12.9% 0.5% 6.1%
Semi-Arid South 31.0% 30.2% 9.6% 2.0% 6.8% 12.7% 2.1% 5.6%
Coast 45.5% 3.7% 0.8% 3.6% 2.4% 25.2% 5.5% 13.3%
Arid North 47.5% 16.7% 4.0% 2.8% 6.1% 8.7% 4.5% 9.7%
Arid South 46.3% 2.4% 0.5% 3.2% 4.0% 11.9% 9.5% 22.1%
Turkana 78.2% 2.4% 0.5% 3.3% 2.2% 6.9% 3.6% 3.0%
23
Analysis of the Kenyan Economy structure with SAM data
Households consumption pattern
Food, 41.6%
Textile and clothing, 4.1%
Other industries,
10.6%
Energy and
water, 9.1%
Transport and
communications, 14.2%
Services, 20.5%
24
Analysis of the Kenyan Economy structure with SAM data
Households consumption patterns (global, by rural/urban habitat and by AEZ)
41.6%
48.4%
33.1%
29.5%
42.6%
42.9%
50.4%
49.2%
56.0%
57.8%
65.4%
72.8%
4.1%
4.7%
3.3%
2.9%
4.1%
4.3%
4.0%
5.6%
3.8%
4.8%
7.4%
4.1%
10.6%
11.3%
9.6%
9.6%
11.8%
10.8%
10.4%
11.0%
12.3%
11.3%
8.6%
8.2%
9.1%
7.3%
11.3%
12.9%
10.2%
7.8%
7.7%
8.4%
9.5%
6.2%
5.8%
9.2%
14.2%
11.5%
17.6%
20.8%
18.7%
12.1%
9.3%
15.2%
10.7%
8.2%
6.8%
3.1%
20.5%
16.8%
25.0%
24.2%
12.7%
22.1%
18.2%
10.6%
7.6%
11.8%
5.9%
2.5%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Kenya
Rural
Urban
Nairobi
Mombasa
High Rainfall
Semi-Arid North
Semi-Arid South
Coast
Arid North
Arid South
Turkana
Food Textile and clothing Other industries Energy and water Transport and communications Services25
Analysis of the Kenyan Economy structure with SAM data
HPHC food consumption rate of total food consumption (global, by rural/urban habitat and by AEZ)
8.8%
12.8%
1.5%
0.6%
0.2%
11.3%
15.6%
7.9%
5.2%
5.5%
6.3%
2.8%
Kenya
Rural
Urban
Nairobi
Mombasa
High Rainfall
Semi-Arid North
Semi-Arid South
Coast
Arid North
Arid South
Turkana
26
Analysis of the Kenyan Economy structure with SAM data Principal food commodities consumed as share of total food consumption
(global and by rural/urban habitat)
13.4%
12.2%
9.3% 9.3% 9.2%8.7% 8.7%
6.1%
5.0%
16.1%
10.4%
6.2%
11.3%
12.8%
8.3%8.8%
5.5%
4.5%
8.4%
15.4%15.1%
5.4%
2.5%
9.5%
8.4%
7.2%
6.1%
Pulses and oil seeds Meat & dairy Fruits Maize Grain milling Beverages and
tobacco
Roots and tubers Vegetables Dairy
Kenya Rural Urban
27
The European Commission’s
science and knowledge service
Joint Research Centre
The structure of the
Kenyan economy Kenya Social Accounting Matrix
Workshop on Modelling Impacts of National
Policies on Kenyan Economy
Nairobi, April 28, 2016
Alfredo Mainar Causapé