The Equity Supply Chain: Is it the Cause of So Few

Women in Management and Leadership Positions?

Richard G. Dudley

Boston - July 2007

25th Meeting of the International System Dynamics Society

A Pipeline Issue? (some quotes)

“… the assumption — usually unfounded — that there isn’t enough talent in the pipeline.”

“qualified women in substantial numbers have been available for the academic pipeline for 20 years.”

“For decades, the pat explanation was that women simply had not been in the work force long enough... A look at the pipeline suggests otherwise.”

“This dearth of women leaders, both academic and administrative, is no longer a pipeline issue.”

A Simple Question:• Given that women make up 45% of the US

workforce but only 16% of corporate officers and only 2% of CEOs….

• Can pipeline delays alone account for this relatively low fraction of CEO and leadership positions held by women?– In other words, are the numbers of women in these

positions what we would expect…

…given historical trends of women in the overall workforce and in college?

The Approach Taken:• Supply Chain (subscripted by gender):

– Starting with last year in high school– Three levels of university education– Six career categories

• Adjust input data so that (for ~1940 – 2005):– Proportion of female and male university students

matches real world information.– Proportions of men and women in the total workforce

match real world information.• Examine:

– fraction of male and female workers in Senior and Leadership Positions

– under different scenarios.

Model Structure 1: Education

Final YearHigh School

Students

UniversityStudents

GraduateStudents

Upper-LevelGraduateStudents

graduatesentering work

forceenteringgraduateschool

entering basiccareer from high

school

continuing ingrad school

enteringuniversity

entering finalyear high school

recruitinghighly trained

personnel

recruitingcollege

graduates

becominghomemakers

from high school

Total Workforce

becominghomemakers

Model Structure 2: Early Workforce

People inBasic

Careers

PeopleDuring Early

Career

People withEstablishedCareer Path

graduatesentering

work force

enteringbasic career

from highschool moving up

becomingestablished

retiring2

retiring1 becoming ahomemaker

moving upfaster

becoming ahomemaker after

college

beingpromoted

recruiting L3highly trained

graduatesrecruiting L2

collegegraduates

retiringestablishedpersonnel

a pipeline delay

People in PostCollege Basic

Careers

Model Structure 3: Higher Positions

People withEstablishedCareer Path

People inRelatively Seniorand Responsible

Positions

People inLeadershipPositions

beingpromoted

pickingleadership

retiring seniorpersonnel

retiringleaders

Model Structure 3: Higher Positions

FRACTION REQUIREDIN LEADERSHIP

POSITIONS

number of newleaders needed

FRACTION NEEDED INSENIOR POSITIONS

new seniorpeople needed

<total workforce>

expectedleadershipretirement

expected seniorretirements

expected moveto leadership

<total workforce>

fraction ofcandidates to be

recruited

fraction of seniorcandidates to be

recruited

retiringleaders

People withEstablishedCareer Path

People inRelatively Seniorand Responsible

Positions

People inLeadershipPositions

beingpromoted

pickingleadership

retiring seniorpersonnel

Approximate Composition of the Workforce by Gender

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1950 1975 1998 2005

Year

frac

tio

n o

f th

e w

ork

forc

e

women

men

Women - accounting for part-time participation in the workforce

Men - accounting for women'spart-time participation in the workforce

But! A consistent fraction of women work part-time.

Some Background 1: Historical Trend - Workforce Composition

So! To give the supply chain hypothesis a better chance… I will use these lower values for women’s participation in the workforce!

Fraction of US Population Graduating from College

0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

0.3

0.35

0.4

1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

Year of Graduation

frac

tio

n

female

male

Some Background 2: Historical Trend – Fraction with College Degree

Since 1980 women college students outnumber men.

0.5

0.45

0.4

0.35

0.3

0.25

0.2

0.15

0.1

1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010Time (Year)

Dmnl

fraction of workforce

all basic careers

early careers

established career path

senior workforce

leaders

Fraction of Each Work Category Who are Female

What we would expect to find if movement through the workforce is the same for men and

women and differences are due solely to differences in numbers available for promotion.

Expected fraction of senior management positions held by

women

Actual

0.5

0.45

0.4

0.35

0.3

0.25

0.2

0.15

0.1

1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010Time (Year)

Dmnl

Fraction of Each Work Category Who are Female

An Adjustment:

• Suppose we assume that the number of women “becoming homemakers” tags all women in basic careers as less suitable for promotion. – That is: Movement out of both “basic careers”

is limited by the perception that women are homemakers.

0.5

0.45

0.4

0.35

0.3

0.25

0.2

0.15

0.1

1940 1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010Time (Year)

Dm

nl

fraction of workforce

all basic careers

early careers

established career path

senior workforce

leaders

Fraction of Each Work Category Who are Female0.5

0.45

0.4

0.35

0.3

0.25

0.2

0.15

0.1

1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010Time (Year)

Dmnl

Fraction of Each Work Category Who are Female

Original – Promotions Not Biased

Women are tagged as homemakers and tend to get stuck in basic careers

An Additional Adjustment:

• Let’s also assume that the fraction of women “becoming homemakers” tags all women at ALL career levels as less suitable for promotion. – That is: Movement upward from ANY career

category is limited by the perception that women are homemakers.

– Based on the fraction that actually become homemakers.

0.5

0.45

0.4

0.35

0.3

0.25

0.2

0.15

0.1

1940 1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010Time (Year)

Dm

nl

fraction of workforce

all basic careers

early careers

established career path

senior workforce

leaders

Fraction of Each Work Category Who are Female

Women are tagged as homemakers at the basic

career level

0.5

0.45

0.4

0.35

0.3

0.25

0.2

0.15

0.11940 1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

Time (Year)

Dm

nl

Fraction of Each Work Category Who are Female

fraction of workforce

all basic careers

early careers

established career path

senior workforce

leaders

Women are tagged as homemakers at ALL

career levels

Conclusions & Comments:• Supply chain delays alone cannot account

for the relatively low numbers of women in senior workforce positions in the US.– One alternate idea, that women’s movement

throughout the employment chain is limited because they are tagged as homemakers, could explain the low numbers.

– But several other explanations could also explain the bias.

Comments (continued):– Also, if there are sufficient numbers of women

in the supply chain, then such things as special programs for women at universities are probably less important than are….

– Improvements in equity during promotion along the chain of workforce categories.

Questions ?

Comments ?

Contact: richard.dudley@attglobal.net