The Epidemiology of Coccidioidomycosis: Correlating Rainfall, Temperature, and

Wind Speed

Angélica Álvarez, NASA Space Grant Intern

Dr. Joellen Russell, Department of Geosciences

Dr. Eyal Oren, Division of Epidemiology & Biostatistics

AZ Space Grant Symposium 11 April 2014

Coccidiodes:Valley FeverWhat is it? Where is it?

Centers for Disease Control and PreventionBy Janet loehrke and Karl Gelles, USA TODAY

Objectives To what extent do climate anomalies such as in wind

speed, temperature and rainfall correlate with Valley Fever reporting data in the state of Arizona?

Is there variability in the influence of these climate variables to specific locations of Arizona?

What is the influence of wind speed, temperature, and rainfall anomalies on Valley Fever reporting data one month later?

Methods Calculation of regression maps of statewide monthly Valley Fever reporting data

from the Arizona Department of Health Services on various climate anomalies (wind speed, temperature, rainfall) across Arizona from 2006-2013

Climate variable data taken from Climate Forecast Reanalysis System under the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

Climate anomalies are defined as monthly deviations from normal months (average taken between 1979 – 2010)

Example: Normal January is the average of all Januaries whereas the anomaly in January of 2000 is the difference between the actual value in January of 2000 and the normal value

Calculation of significance of correlation coefficients calculated using student t-tests on regression maps

Correlation and significance of one month lag analysis by correlating the monthly anomaly for a specific climate variable with the following month’s reporting data (ADHS)

Cocci Timeline

change in major commerciallaboratory reporting practices

change in laboratorytesting methods

Endemic Areas

SourceArizona Department of Health Services

SourceArizona Department of Health ServicesClimate Forecast Reanalysis System

SourceArizona Department of Health ServicesClimate Forecast Reanalysis System

SourceArizona Department of Health ServicesClimate Forecast Reanalysis System

Regression Analyses & One Month Lag

SourceArizona Department of Health ServicesClimate Forecast Reanalysis System

One

Mon

th L

ag

Reg

ress

ion

Ana

lysi

sR

egre

ssio

n A

naly

sis

Conclusions Positive correlation between wind anomaly and Cocci in southeast AZ Strong positive correlation between rain anomaly and Cocci in

northwest AZ Negative correlation of rain anomaly in one month lag regression No significant difference in lagged correlation using wind anomalies Further testing with climate variables needed

Correlate meteorological factors such as precipitation, dust exposure, humidity (RH & AH) with Valley Fever looking at incidence rates, date of exposure, and per varying lagged time frames

Correlate comorbidity of Valley Fever with other respiratory diseases

Acknowledgements

Dr. Paul Goodman, Department of Geosciences

Dr. Andrew C. Comrie, School of Geography & Development

Susan Brew, UA Space Grant Consortium

Dr. Barron Orr, UA NASA Space Grant Program

Reporting Data - Arizona Department of Health Services

Climate Forecast Reanalysis System, National Oceanic and

Atmospheric Administration