the energy dialogue between the eu and russia the kyoto protocol
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The energy dialogue between the EU and Russia The Kyoto Protocol. EU-Russia Relationship A reminder. Initial phase 1991 : TACIS programme 1994 : Signature of the Partnership and Co-operation Agreement (PCA) Intensification - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
The energy dialogue between the EU and Russia
The Kyoto Protocol
Initial phase1991 : TACIS programme 1994 : Signature of the Partnership and Co-operation Agreement (PCA)
Intensification 1997 : Entry into force of the Partnership and Co-operation Agreement (PCA) : trade (WTO based, MFN trade rules), political dialogue, justice & home affairs (co-operation to prevent illegal activities, drugs, money laundering, organised crime), institutions. 1999 : EU Common Strategy on Russia : integration into a common European economic and social space. Russian Common Strategy towards the EU : construction of a Europe without dividing lines Northern Dimension : answer to the special regional development challenges of northern Europe. Producing concrete results 2000 : Energy Dialogue launched - an important element in the concept of the.... 2001 : Proposal for a Common European Economic Space 2002 : « Wider Europe » initiative 2003 : Sankt Petersburg Summit : concept of four common spaces
EU-Russia RelationshipA reminder
The four Spaces
• Common Economic Space
• Common Space of Freedom, Security and Justice
• Common Space of Co-operation in the Field of External Security
• Common Space of Research and Education
The Common InstitutionsA reminder
Summit EU/Russia Twice a year
Head of State
Permanent partnership Council
On specific issues
Ministerial level
Cooperation Committee Once a year
Officials
Parliamentary Commission (EP-Duma)
Ad hoc Members of the EP and of the Duma
Sub-Committees Several a year
Working groups
Where : The EU-Russia Summit in Paris
When : 30th October 2000
Nomination of two sole interlocutors : Mr François Lamoureux, Director General of the European Commission and Vice-Prime Minister of the Russian Federation, Viktor Khristenko
Objectives
progress in the definition of an EU-Russia energy partnership,
contribute to the security in energy supply as well as in energy demand,
cooperation on energy saving,
rationalisation of production and transport infrastructures and importance of electricity interconnections,
facilitate investments,
contribute to the relations between producer and consumer countries,
support the Energy Charter Treaty
contribution to the ratification of the Kyoto protocole
The Energy Dialogue EU-Russia
The Climatic Contrast
Source : The Siberian Curse, Fiona Hill and Clifford Gaddy, Brookings Institution Press, 2003.
It gets colder from West to East not necessarily from South to North
Difficult Demographics
Ricardo law of comparative dis(advantages)
T° (in Brussels March 15 2004 12° C
Population 2003(million)
Novosibirsk -21 1434
Yekaterinburg -11 1260
Omsk -25 1130
Chelyabinsk -6 1068
Ufa -10 1074
Perm -12 980
Krasnoyarsk -20 929
Kabarovsk -9 606
Barnaul -24 575
Irkutzk -17 585
Novokuznetzk -28 556
Tomsk -19 488
Kemerovo -22 475
Ulan-ude -14 347
Bratsk -21 260
Yakutzk -18 196
Norilsk -34 170
Energy production (Mio toe)Energy production (Mio toe)
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
1990 2000 2010 2020
RenewablesNuclearGasOilCoal
Europe (EU-25) Russia
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
1990 2000 2010 2020
Sources: Russian Federation: 2003 Russia’s Energy Strategy until 2020, European Commission.
Energy Security: Energy imports and exports (in mtoe)
173163
124
258
200
2313
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
Oil Natural Gas Coal Electricity
2000 2020
EU Energy Imports Russian Energy Exports
518
186
91
2
632
450
128
20
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
Oil Natural Gas Coal Electricity
2000 2020
Sources: Russian Federation : Russia’s strategy until 2020, European Commission : trends to 2030
The importance of the European market GAZPROM Sales and Receipts
Sources : IEA, European Commission, Gazprom
Export price to Europe$ 130 / 1000 m3
Domestic price to households$16 / 1000 m3
Domestic price to industry$ 23 / 1000 m3
Gas volumes
Russia 63%
Receipts from gas sales
Russia 35,5%
Europe and others 64,5 %
Europe and others 37 %
Required price to finance investments
2006 : $ 41/1000 M3
2010 : $ 62-70/1000M3
Electricity production by fuel
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
2000 2020
EUR 25 Russia
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
2000 2020
Hydro and Renew
Nuclear
Oil
Natural Gas
Coal
Sources : Russian Federation : 2003 Russia’s Energy Strategy until 2020, European Commission : Trends to 2030
Nuclear power plants : production capacity in Gwe (2000 – 2020)
98
140
21
100108
42
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
USA EUR25 RUSSIA
GW
e 2000
2020
Sources USEIA; Minatom; Russian Federation : 2003 Russia’s Energy Strategy until 2020; European Commission : Trends to 2030.
Russia
Nuclear power plants : load factor
Source : Minatom
Energy Intensity
Natural GasElectricity
0
0,2
0,4
0,6
0,8
1
1,2
2000 2020
Russia EU
Koe per Euro of GDP
0
0,5
1
1,5
2
2,5
3
3,5
2000 2020
Russia EU
KWh/ Euro of GDP
Sources: Russian Federation : Russia’s strategy until 2020, European Commission : trends to 2030
Adj. PPP
Adj PPP Adj PPP
Adj PPP
Potential for Energy Conservation in Russia
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
mio
tc
e
GDP/Energy intensity 2000 Technological potentialStructural reforms
A. Mastepanov, Ministry of Energy, Russian Federation
CO2 Emissions (million tonnes)
010002000300040005000600070008000
EU 25 EU15 Russia USA China
1990
2000
2010
2020
Russia Energy SectorInvestment requirements
Natural gas26%
Oil33%
Electricity16%
Nuclear4%
Coal3%
Heat10%
Energy Efficiency8%
Total requirements 2003-2020€ 715 thousand million
Sources : Russian Federation : Russia’s Energy strategy until 2020 and European Commission.
Why should Russia ratify
• The Kyoto protocol is not a constraint on Russia’s economic growth
- Russia will most likely still be below its 1990 level in 2020. No
doubt that it will meet its obligations;
- Huge potential for energy conservation;
- Emission trading will benefit Russia as will Joint implementation.
• Ratification by Russia of the Kyoto protocol will enable its entry into force and contribute to confirm the role of Russia as a global and responsible player in the environmental field.
• Ratification will be welcomed by developing countries that expect vast investments through the Clean Development Mechanism.